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Silva Rises To Top Of Free Agent Starter Market

About a year ago, the Twins were seriously debating whether to exercise Carlos Silva's $4MM option for 2007.  After all, he'd posted a ghastly 5.94 ERA in 180 innings in 2006.  His 246 hits allowed was among the highest totals in baseball that year.

What difference a year makes.  Silva posted a solid 4.19 ERA in 202 innings, a performance more in line with his career marks.  As a result he's arguably the best available free agent starter this winter and stands to snag a contract of at least four years and $40MM (with no cost in draft picks).  La Velle E. Neal III says the Twins want him back, and Bill Smith is already talking about the intangibles the team offers for him. The Twins may balk at even $8MM annually.

Neal notes that the Diamondbacks, Braves, Cubs, Mets, and Phillies had interest in trading for Silva this summer.  That pretty well sums it up.  We can probably add the Reds to the mix.  Looking at Nick Cafardo's recent summary, the Devil Rays, Blue Jays, Tigers, Astros, Cardinals, and Dodgers all seek to add veteran starting pitching.  Silva typically ranks in the top 20 for groundball rate, so he may try to avoid stadiums with artificial turf. 

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Not feelin this vibe. But I guess in this market he could be the best starter. I cannot imagine him in a Dodger uni (yet). I don't think that Colletti is desperate enough to snag him. Then again, Dodger Stadium is about as welxome as you could get for pitchers. We shall see.

I'd love to see Silva in an Astro uni. His groundballs would bode well for the team playing at home in MMP with Everett's defense backing him up.

Note to Ed Wade, you don't need Hunter/Rowand. You NEED pitching.

I feel like at least one or two of the rehab projects will regain some of their former selves. So if I was a GM I wouldn't hand Silva a Gil Meche contract. But at any rate, I feel like Kuroda will be the most talked about this offseason.

Yeesh, this market is as thin as it gets. Imagine if Zambrano hit the open market? Not to knock Silva as a mid-rotation guy, but he's just about as average as it gets for a team with legitimate aspirations of winning.

This would have been one of the top free agent markets in recent history if not for all the extensions. Oh well, if some of the guys in next year's class reach free agency that will easily be the free agent class of the decade.

It's a sad pitching market when Silva is the cream of the crop. I'm hoping for some exciting pitching trades this offseason. Just get Santana out of the AL Central.

The market can definetly only get better. There's going to be at least absolutely sick class before 2011. Anyone one hot stove season between 2008, '09, and '10 have lots of potential. There's no way all of Johan Santana, CC Sabathia, Jake Peavy, Brad Penny, Brandon Webb, Dan Haren, and Roy Halladay (I'm sure I missed a few more) sign extensions with their small-mid market clubs before then.

Hey, I agree that JakeOD21 didn't exactly go in-depth, but I agree with his overall conclusion. Crede really hasn't been a good offensive 3B. He's never even managed league-average OBP, topping out at .323. He hits a decent number of HR, but he's never managed more than 151 games or 544 AB, and surpassed 500 AB only twice. He's never even managed more than 34 BB in a season.

As for the White Sox... well, they were last in the ML in OBP, BA, 28th in Runs Scored, 25th in ERA, 24th in BAA, and 19th in WHIP. They did have some down years from players, but they need some major changes to get bach into the postseason race.

I'm not saying the trade is good or bad... I haven't really decided how I feel about it, and it would depend on how much of Damon's salary the Yankees picked up.

Whoops, sorry. That previous post is supposed to be on another thread!

The Dodgers should do their best to sign Pettite for two or three years, and if he does sign, they should trade Penny while his value is at a high point. I'm sure they could get a quality, young center fielder for him. Maybe Colby Rasmus? Wishful thinking probably.

Didn't Pettite already say it was NYY or retirement?

Now that i think about it, considering that if Silva is at the top of the free agent market, there is a good possibility the Cubs could trade Jason Marquis. Last year he was a formidable back of the rotation starter, and he's got 2/14 left on his deal. He may not be a better risk than say, Freddy Garcia, but giving up a prospect or two for Marquis at 2/14 makes more sense than giving up a draft pick or two for Silva at 4/44.

Assuming the Rangers can shed Vincente Padilla's deal, I'd like to see them in the mix for Silva.

"Now that i think about it, considering that if Silva is at the top of the free agent market, there is a good possibility the Cubs could trade Jason Marquis. Last year he was a formidable back of the rotation starter, and he's got 2/14 left on his deal. He may not be a better risk than say, Freddy Garcia, but giving up a prospect or two for Marquis at 2/14 makes more sense than giving up a draft pick or two for Silva at 4/44."

Well, no that's not really true. First, Marquis was a decent backend starter in the NL, making him a bullpen arm in the AL. Secondly, Silva wasn't classified as a Type A or B free agent, therefore no draft picks will be required if a team signs him. Silva is a mid-rotation guy in the AL, so paying him more for a couple more years and not giving up a prospect is better than trading away young talent for Marquis.

Yeah, I think Petite did say that, but I've also heard of reports that he would be willing to come to LA because of Torre. So I don't really know what to believe. A lot of moves you don't see coming until it happens. Like I said before: wishful thinking on my part.

I agree Meddler that all those guys won't re-up with their current team. However, I would be shocked if most, if not all, were either extended or traded and extended.

Does anyone really think that the Twins will take a late 1st and a sandwich pick for Johan. He either resigns or he is gone. Whoever trades for a guy like that (unless they are Boras clients) will do whatever they can to sign them to extensions.

I could see Penny re-upping if he likes LA. But the rest will all hit the market by the 2010-11 offseason.

The thing about trade and sign type moves when a player has only one season left, as with Johan, is it essentially gives the player a full no-trade clause. If he declines an extension, I doubt we'll see a deal during the offseason. what we might see is a deadline trade if a trade and sign isn't happening for a lesser package that's still better than two decent draft picks. It would open up more potential partners for the Twins, but it would be a rental if Johan doesn't like his new situation.

So whether its via trade and sign or FA, I think we'll start to see some of these big names hitting the open market during the upcoming hot stove seasons. The way these contracts are being given out, and given how much power these pitchers will have over accepting a trade and sign vs. being a rental, we may actually start to see them hit the open FA market and sign 5-7 year deals at $15-20 million per season.

'Does anyone really think that the Twins will take a late 1st and a sandwich pick for Johan. He either resigns or he is gone. Whoever trades for a guy like that (unless they are Boras clients) will do whatever they can to sign them to extensions.'

Logic says they should either sign him or trade him. But the Twins did neither with Torii Hunter last offseason. And they never really entered negotiations with him. they've made a couple below market offers. Same situation with Joe Nathan this year also.


a little off topic...

that cafardo column says bedard could be available. anyone hear anything more about this? any chance my tigers get him? what would we have to give up?

I dont think the tigers would be interested in bedard. They have enough good young pitching as is. They need to focus on bullpen arms right now.

yea, true, you make a good point. i've just always really liked bedard, and i think he'd make a nice addition. i see him as a future cy young winner for sure.

Not to step on anyone's toes, but I'm also taking part in a Mock GM Offseason and are only looking for 5 more people to join.

The choices remaining are:

Arizona Diamondbacks
Chicago White Sox
San Diego Padres
St Louis Cardinals
Washington Nationals

http://nybassociation.proboards103.com/index.cgi

The Cards could use Penny, but Colby Rasmus is about as untouchable as can be right now in the Cardinals' eyes.

Could not agree more Carpe, that is why I think the cards should trade Chris Duncan. There is no doubt that he is an offensive talent, and because of that, i know the cards are not going to just trade him off for any decent offer of pitching they get. However, if they get blown away with a deal, involving a young effective pitcher whom they could control for a few years, I was have to seriously consider it. However, I do not think the cards want to trade away his offensive production, and the fact that he is dave duncan's son im sure holds some merit.

This seems like a good pick up for the nationals. Solid performing, reasonably affordable starter to solidify rotaion. 4 years 40 million is reasonable (consider inflation for the same type pitcher 2-3 years down the road). Silva is under 30. This seems to fit the nats "plan".

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