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UPDATE, 12-14-07 at 2:47pm: George Ofman of WSCR radio 670 out of Chicago says the Twins would indeed want Marmol in a deal for Nathan.
FROM 12-13-07 at 11:26pm:
LENIII has just a single-line teaser for us at the end of his column:
The Cubs are interested in trading for closer Joe Nathan if he's available.
That's a new one; who knew the Cubs were looking for a closer? Their deficiences seem to be at shortstop and perhaps in the rotation. It seems that some combination of Carlos Marmol, Bob Howry, and Kerry Wood can handle the ninth inning.
What would the Cubs have to give up? I'm drawing a blank trying to find a precedent - an elite closer dealt with one year left before free agency. Billy Wagner was dealt in the 2003-04 offseason, but he had two seasons left on his deal. How about Keith Foulke? The A's acquired him with one year left; the White Sox received Daylon Holt, Neal Cotts, and Billy Koch. Maybe the Twins would ask for Marmol plus one more good young player.
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Why don't the Cubs want to trust Marmol as closer? He was nasty last year.
Posted by: MetFanBen | December 13, 2007 at 11:29 PM
If the Twins were offered Marmol for Nathan, I think they'd almost have to make that move.
Posted by: tolo316 | December 13, 2007 at 11:35 PM
marmol and pie for nathan and scott baker/slowey/one of those guys?
Posted by: boomshwa12 | December 13, 2007 at 11:39 PM
personally i think marmol and pie for nathan and a low level prospect is more appropriate, but i know how high cubs fans are with pie
Posted by: boomshwa12 | December 13, 2007 at 11:41 PM
Perhaps the Cubs think Marmol got Lidge'd in the playoffs last year...
Posted by: Dave | December 13, 2007 at 11:45 PM
Are the Cubs linked to every available player in this years off season? I don't think there has been a rumored guy on the block that the Cubs haven't had an interest in. They don't need Roberts but they're trying to get him, they don't need Nathan but they're trying to get him. Do they think by making a splash in every off season is going to make their fans happy instead of winning a world series?
Posted by: NLBaseball21 | December 13, 2007 at 11:48 PM
Doesn't make sense to me. Yeah Nathan is a stud, but 1. Marmol will be a stud real soon, 2. The Cubs would almost certainly over pay for Nathan, and 3. Nathan only has 1 year left on his contract. As much as I would like to be able to breath in the 9th inning, I don't think it's worth overpaying for a 1 year close.
Posted by: airmidget1 | December 13, 2007 at 11:52 PM
12.5 k/9, 4 year average of 31 svs. career 1.19 whip with two years till FA and is two years younger than Joe Nathan got traded for Michael Bourn, Mike Costanzo, and
Geoff Geary. Go from there minus one year of cheaper service time, a better perceived talent, and two years older.
I had no idea Nathan was 32. You've got to assume he wants to make a huge payday as its probably his only chance to nail down a big contract.
Posted by: ArodSucksAtLife | December 14, 2007 at 12:19 AM
"personally i think marmol and pie for nathan and a low level prospect is more appropriate, but i know how high cubs fans are with pie"
Bahahahahaha. Most Cub fans aren't even that high on Pie. And you're talking about a 1 year rental of a reliever. Pie isn't going anywhere, not in this deal, considering he's more valuable than 1 year of Nathan by himself and the Twins already have an OF surplus.
Posted by: Game555 | December 14, 2007 at 12:28 AM
Corner outfield is set, last I checked were still trying to fill the CF hole, that's why we want Ellsbury from the BoSox.
Posted by: MillerTime | December 14, 2007 at 12:36 AM
I think there is other teams out there that have far superior prospects that would want Nathan. But the Cubs would definetely have to give up Marmol in a deal. Nathan is one of the best closers in baseball and the twins might just decide that the money they save in Hunter-Santana, if he is traded, to use it on him.
Posted by: CUBS=NOTHING | December 14, 2007 at 01:13 AM
i think its more that since the cubs did make such a big splash last year, and a more minor but still good one so far this year getting fukudome, that they are just starting to get the whole red sox/yankees treatment of being linked to every player out there true or not. especially since going after nathan really makes no sense for them at all.
Posted by: kid_gloves | December 14, 2007 at 01:23 AM
Pretty sure this is "much ado about nothing". Hopefully the Cubs, playing the part of Claudio while Nathan plays the part of Hero, are never re-united at the end of the play.
I dont think the Cubs are going to trade for Nathan. As mentioned They have Wood/Marmol/Howry. If they are going to try to groom Wood/Marmol for this role they wont make this trade.
Do the Cubs have a decent 3rd Base prospect on the farm? I would think that Marmol and if the Cubs have a legit 3b prospect might do it if this were to go down. Next is if this happens does would Wood resign next year? I am guessing he would want the closer role if he is up to the task this year. I mean there isnt much $$$ in being a set up guy. But then again its the Cubs.
Posted by: Bleacher_Buddha | December 14, 2007 at 01:35 AM
Vitters is a 3B but he's not trade eligible and he wouldn't get dealt anyway.
Posted by: Game555 | December 14, 2007 at 01:48 AM
What happened to billy koch, is he still around??
Posted by: Joe T | December 14, 2007 at 02:07 AM
What happened to billy koch, is he still around??
Posted by: Joe T | December 14, 2007 at 02:08 AM
If they even think of trading Marmol for Nathan they have to out of their mind. What about Sean Marshall and a low level prospect, I could see the Cub seeing him as being expandable.
I read earlier today that the Harris was suppose to get a lot of playing time even with the Everett acquisition. So I could see him being their 3B. Although a lot playing time is vague, so he could just be a utility player.
And in reference to the what happened to Billy Koch , he last played for the Marlins in 2004. He signed with Blue Jays who released him in Spring Training and then he retired.
Posted by: engelbone | December 14, 2007 at 02:31 AM
The Twins have probably been laughing at the Cubs non stop since we signed Jock.
Only seems fitting that they would rape and pillage our minors for a one year rental.
I can't remember who said
"Billy Bean trading with Hendry = Rape"
That probably applies to every other GM in MLB not employed by the Orioles.
Posted by: Gleebo | December 14, 2007 at 02:35 AM
I actually think its pretty nice move on their part, assuming they can deal mostly posistion players for Nathan.
Have Marmol Setup for Nathan for a now, in a year or two, let Nathan setup for Marmol.
Solves the 8-9 for about the next 5 years.
Posted by: tmichalski | December 14, 2007 at 03:02 AM
The reason why Carlos Marmol will be an elite Closer in the next few years, or the best loogy of all time:
August at Wrigley: Cubs Phillies.
Marmol comes into face the heart of the phillies order.
I sit there and watch, from about 75 feet from home plate. I watch as the strikes out both utley and howard. And watch as Utleys Knees Buckle from 75 feet away, on the out pitch.
That kid has what it takes to be an elite closer in my opinion.
Posted by: tmichalski | December 14, 2007 at 04:33 AM
As far as precedent, how about Brad Lidge to the Phillies for Michael Bourn and Mike Costanza? Lidge has a year left on his contract.
Posted by: GoPhils | December 14, 2007 at 05:33 AM
Not sure why cubs would be looking to trade for Nathan. We can manage fine with what we have and if we can't then throw big bucks at nathan in offseason when wood/howry/eyre all come off the books. If marmol is going I would prefer he be sent for a need - I know at one point there was talk that Beane might be having a firesale ( although that was when Angels were getting migs or tejada) and may offer up swisher. Colvin/Pie/Veal/Marmol/Cedeno for swisher and street. Although Beane would probably get Hendry to add in patterson too. would have to make cubs fav in the central no? way too unrealistic?
Posted by: touchmymonkey | December 14, 2007 at 06:07 AM
This is not the first time I've seen Nathan linked to the Cubs. It was first rumored in early November. There might be something to it.
Posted by: cachhubguy | December 14, 2007 at 07:16 AM
I don't think the Twins would give up Nathan. Then again I think Carlos Marol is going to do really good when the years past and a really good reliever. The Cubs should focus on starting pitching for now. They got a pretty bad rotation.
Posted by: yankfan1 | December 14, 2007 at 07:36 AM
Yankfan1, I do agree they need another starter, like a Bedard or Haren to get to the WS, but I don't think I would describe the second best staff in the NL as "pretty bad".
Posted by: cachhubguy | December 14, 2007 at 07:54 AM
I'd rather see them get a stud starter than a stud closer for '08. But I can see both sides of why it could work.
Posted by: Oh Boy | December 14, 2007 at 08:43 AM
The Cubs have had back luck with relievers from Minnesota in recent history. Rick Aguleria in 2000 and LaTroy Hawkins in 2004.
Posted by: chicagobubbleblog | December 14, 2007 at 08:46 AM
And don't forget Jacque Jones. I'll pass, I'd rather have Marmol, thanks.
Posted by: Cubs World Champs please B4 I die | December 14, 2007 at 08:57 AM
The only way I give up Marmol is for an elite starter: Haren, Bedard.
Posted by: Cubs World Champs please B4 I die | December 14, 2007 at 08:59 AM
Wasn't Marmol as good as Lidge, even if it wasn't in a closers role, in bigs first full year in the bigs? He is under team control making next to nothing for years to come...how does it make sense to trade for 1 year of Nathan before he commands 12 mil per year for like 4 years??
Posted by: Aduncaroo | December 14, 2007 at 09:09 AM
If Nathan puts together another good year, 4 years will do it, 12 per won't.
Posted by: Oh Boy | December 14, 2007 at 10:20 AM
Marmol plus one prospect is probably a good deal for Nathan for both sides. Lidge ain't no Nathan. Nathan is probably the best closer in the entire game. You pay a prospect for that, as good of a prospect as Marmol is. And the Cubs have the money to resign Nathan.
This really could have worked out a lot better before the Young trade. Then the Twins could have dealt for a Marmol/Murton package. But now Murton does nothing for the Twins, unless they move Cuddyer back to 3b, which I suppose is still possible.
Posted by: djskilbr | December 14, 2007 at 10:28 AM
I certainly wouldn't trade Marmol for a closer. I'm not even sure if I trade him for a starter. Marmol started during the season from hell, and despite the fact that his number got rung up (and what Cubs pitcher didn't that year), he still looked pretty impressive as a starter.
Posted by: Cynic81 | December 14, 2007 at 11:07 AM
To Cynic81:
I have always thought that Marmol should be a starter. He has the best arm on the team next to Big Z. Why are we wasting it on a setup spot?
Posted by: childersb | December 14, 2007 at 11:19 AM
Marmol is not proven, but he has even better stuff than Nathan does. I just don't see the point of trading the guy that probably has the best chance in the GAME of being a shut down closer for years to come at near the league minimum. I'm not sure there is a reliever that is more valuable than Marmol when you consider stats last year, stuff, contract, and years under team control. To me, when considering all those things, he is more valuable than Nathan is, right now!
Posted by: Aduncaroo | December 14, 2007 at 11:21 AM
"I have always thought that Marmol should be a starter. He has the best arm on the team next to Big Z. Why are we wasting it on a setup spot?"
Because he is a two, MAYBE 3 pitch pitcher and guys start to catch the slider when they have 3 at bats against him. If he could be a #4 or #5 starter at best, wouldn't you rather have a shut down reliever that posts a 1.5 era and gives you 70 or more IP each year? I think he would probably be better than Marquis or Dempster right now, but not Hill or Lilly. Problem is, Dempster and Marquis would be horrible compared to Marmol in the pen. I like having a guy that comes in for the heart of the other team's order late in the game and makes them look like fools.
Posted by: Aduncaroo | December 14, 2007 at 11:29 AM
Marmol is a shutdown reliever , no bones about it. But he's only 25. If he can pick up another pitch or two, he could also be a damn good starter. He still belongs in the pen for now. My point was that you don't trade someone like Marmol for either a starter or a reliever/closer when he's bound to be a great pitcher.
Posted by: Cynic81 | December 14, 2007 at 11:34 AM
You say he's "bound to be a great pitcher" but Nathan IS a great pitcher, right now. Nathan's the best closer in the game when you factor in durability/health/reliability/numbers. (Papelbon is the only guy I'd put ahead of him, but his shoulder issues move him a touch behind; difference is negligible though).
You guys would love Joe in the 9th.
Posted by: djskilbr | December 14, 2007 at 11:41 AM
True. But not at the cost of Marmol for one year of Nathan.
Posted by: Cynic81 | December 14, 2007 at 11:47 AM
"True. But not at the cost of Marmol for one year of Nathan."
Agreed. Its not that Joe isn't awesome, we would LOVE him...but do you know what he would cost after this year after Cordero's contract? That mixed with giving up like 4 to 5 years of Marmol for next to nothing is just not worth it to me...
Posted by: Aduncaroo | December 14, 2007 at 11:59 AM
I think you Cubs fans are right to be skeptical. I'd pull the trigger on a Nathan for Marmol swap for sure.
Since he's going to be a free agent anyway, I wonder if Nathan might have more value at the midseason deadline going to a contending team whose closer is hurt/ineffective...
Posted by: Cactus Fantastic | December 14, 2007 at 12:51 PM
Like the Brewers?
That would seem to be a lock to me.
Always knew for a fact that Gagne was a roider (source of mine) so I'm happy that's finally out.
Posted by: djskilbr | December 14, 2007 at 01:26 PM
"Marmol plus one prospect is probably a good deal for Nathan for both sides. Lidge ain't no Nathan. Nathan is probably the best closer in the entire game. You pay a prospect for that, as good of a prospect as Marmol is. And the Cubs have the money to resign Nathan."
No, that would be a terrible deal for the Cubs. Especially if you threw in Murton. Hell, for 4-5 years of Marmol, you should throw in a prospect with Nathan to make it fair. What a joke.
Posted by: TrueCubsFan | December 14, 2007 at 02:55 PM
The Cubs would be absolute fools to trade Marmol. He was our only shining star on the pitching staff last year.
Posted by: karena | December 14, 2007 at 03:05 PM
OK, the more I think about this, the more I might consider it. The 9th inning has been troublesome for the Cubs my entire life. There is such a thing as selling HIGH on someone (Marmol) who has that amazing hook, but only for one year, and he choked in the playoffs.
But if giving up Marmol I would rather use such a valuable chip in a deal for an elite starter: Bedard, Haren.
Posted by: Cubs World Champs please B4 I die | December 14, 2007 at 03:07 PM
truecubs,
get a grip. Nathan is the best closer in the league. you dont give up the best closer AND someone else for another teams reliever who has had ONE good year. you're a joke.
Posted by: trober81 | December 14, 2007 at 03:07 PM
I couldn't agree more with TrueCubsFan. Nathan may be better for a year or two, but beyond that, Marmol is a much more valuable player in my opinion. He's 8 years younger than Nathan, and he's proved that he has the stuff to close. The only real obstacle is building the mental capacity. Obviously another deciding factor is the $$$ involved.
The Twins would be fleecing the Cubs on this trade if you view its long-term value.
Posted by: mmontice | December 14, 2007 at 03:09 PM
Marmol had a low ERA in '07 but he still has poor command and only one good year. He could implode at any time. Nathan is an elite closer who has dominated real offenses... against the NL Central it wouldn't be fair.
If the Cubs want to win in the next few years, getting Nathan for a 25-year old reliever with no command, plus a prospect, is a smart move. Marmol, Wood, and the rest of the guys in the Cubs bullpen all have huge question marks.
The Cubs could make the trade contingent on negotiating an extension with Nathan, which would be cheaper than signing a similar close out of free agency.
Posted by: jehu | December 14, 2007 at 03:11 PM
"The 9th inning has been troublesome for the Cubs my entire life."
You must be forgetting how sexy and awesome Rod Beck was in 1998.
Posted by: mmontice | December 14, 2007 at 03:11 PM
Can the Cubs get Nathan without giving up Marmol? If not then they should stick to getting Roberts/Bedard. And if Marmol is leaving in a trade use him to get those 2 guys from Baltimore.
Posted by: uww1 | December 14, 2007 at 03:33 PM
Everyone was Papelbon crazy after his first season, correct? Did people view him as a closer with one good year who could implode at any time? On top of that, Marmol is two years younger than Papelbon, so he still has time to improve his command. Please keep in mind I'm not saying he is as good as Papelbon, but the two scenarios do bear many similarities.
Posted by: mmontice | December 14, 2007 at 03:34 PM
The Cubs haven't won a World Series since 1918 and their fans are worried about Marmol's potential 5 or 6 years from now.
If the Cubs have a shot a Nathan, they need to get him and win THIS YEAR - not 5 years from now.
Posted by: tolo316 | December 14, 2007 at 03:34 PM
Nathan is not the guy that is going to get the Cubs to the world series. They need another starting pitcher.
Posted by: mmontice | December 14, 2007 at 03:47 PM
"If the Cubs want to win in the next few years, getting Nathan for a 25-year old reliever with no command, plus a prospect, is a smart move."
Again, trading a 25-year with Marmol's potential for an elite closer in his free agent year. This wouldn't be winning in the next few years, it would be trying to win this year and then hoping you, and the new owners, can hold onto Nathan. Marmol will be around as a very affordable player for a few more years.
"Marmol had a low ERA in '07 but he still has poor command and only one good year."
Despite his 'poor command,' he still managed to get people to swing and miss. And he's only had one year, so you have to go with the only evidence there is.
Posted by: Cynic81 | December 14, 2007 at 04:09 PM
It was 1908 tolo - appreciate the effort to minimize our suffering a bit.
Nathan is certainly worth more than Marmol straight up, but you are not going to trade your best young pitcher for one year of Nathan. If you really want Nathan wait a year and hope he is there as a FA. He is going to command 4/50-60 - what team that needs a closer with pockets that big is going to be willing to do a trade and sign for that type of money before he hits FA? Indians mabye?
Posted by: cubz23 | December 14, 2007 at 04:21 PM
It would be a really dumb financial move to make this trade. Not to mention that Marmol was as good as Nathan, even if it was in the 7th inning, in his ONLY full year in the bigs. Here is the thing most people don't realize. Lou brought Marmol in when it was most important. Usually in the 6th or 7th, sometimes both, when the heart of the order was up for the opposing team. Look at his ERA. Then factor that he has 4-6 years of team control left making next to nothing. Then factor in that Nathan has 1 year left, then will make at LEAST 12 to 14 mil per season. It would be dumb to make that move, period. The Cubs can just keep Marmol and sign another good reliever and still have 8 mil or so to spend....
Posted by: Aduncaroo | December 14, 2007 at 04:28 PM
by the way...for whoever said he doesn't do it with real offenses...read the post toward the top of the thread about someone watching him go in against the heart of the phillies order. There isn't anyone who can hit him when he is on. Period. No one.
Posted by: Aduncaroo | December 14, 2007 at 04:32 PM
So just to further my point...Nathan vs. Marmol next year is probably an advantage to Nathan...but not by a ton. Factor in his salary compared to Marmols and its a wash. Then, you have either:
A) Marmol for 4 years and a couple mil
B)Nathan for 4 years and 55 mil (obviously an estimate)
So, it is essentially
A) Marmol and 50 million dollars
B) Nathan
or, you could think of it as
A)Marmol and a 12 million dollar a year player, someone like say...Fukudome
or
B)Nathan until he is 36
I'm going with Marmol
Posted by: Aduncaroo | December 14, 2007 at 04:43 PM
y would you trade marmol for who is i think for joe nathan that is 36?? and marmol is better and nathan wants more money let marmol be your closer pick up bartolo colon to for your 5th starter
Posted by: cubs91193 | December 14, 2007 at 09:22 PM
nice point CHICUBS08. I think we have a great reliever in Marmol, who I have argued for all year. So many people have said he is junk and i said ok sure look at the stats.
Marmol has the stuff, and has proven it against some of the best offenses in the league last year. I was in Wrigley last year when he went two no hit innings against the Brew Crew with the 2-7 hitters. THAT WAS TOUGH LAST YEAR! also, i watched him go through the heart of the Phillies last year. He is truly an amazing pitcher, with so much potential. Nathan is established as an elite pitcher, but he is old and at prime. The Twins would make a good move to trade him now, because this is probly the best he will ever be. Marmol has years of prime in his future...
The message -- DONT MAKE THE TRADE HENDRY!!! ITS A BAD ONE!!! KEEP AFTER THAT ROBERTS KID THOUGH!
Posted by: bronx | December 14, 2007 at 09:36 PM
So, changing the subject a little, since all true Cubs fan know that trading Marmol for Nathan is a horrible idea...I have to say I'm little upset Henry didn't pursue Haren, seeing what the D-Backs gave up to get him. He would have been a steal, since he's locked up for 3 more years at 5.5m million a year!!!
Posted by: ska_tay | December 15, 2007 at 08:36 AM
Nathan would be a SICK addition to the Cubs bullpen. I agree with some of the nonCub fans viewpoint; however, I'm thinking that a major reason (unfortunate one) that the Cubs wouldn't pull the trigger on this one is the Wood situation. I think the Cubs are very interested in having Woody come in during the 9th - consider the bonuses in his current contract. Just hope that arm can handle back to back to back games. I don't really see Nathan being dealt before Spring Training - more like June/July.
Posted by: socalicubsfan | December 15, 2007 at 10:18 AM
the cubs will not trade marmol. The cubs have one of the best farm systems in baseball, talent wise, and if they want to throw it away for 1 player go ahead. Nathan is 33 and marmol is 25. Marmol can develop and be better at 33 than Nathan is. If anything, the cubs should be putting together a package for erik bedard. ( DUMP MARQUIS!!!)
Posted by: griff | December 15, 2007 at 04:12 PM
griff,
I'm a huge Cubs fan...but they do not have one of the best farm systems in baseball. I wish you are right, but believe me, you aren't.
Posted by: Aduncaroo | December 16, 2007 at 11:15 AM
I think Marmol is perfect right where he is. To have a guy who can come in and throw three straight innings early in the game when the starter is struggling is huge. Usually when the bullpen has to come in early for a starter you get nervous, but with marmol you feel comfortable and feel like there is still a chance to win the ball game
Posted by: mattsters | December 17, 2007 at 03:19 PM