Reds In Lead For Bedard?

The Reds definately can't afford to give up both Bailey and Cueto in any deal. For a team that has a history of not developing any starting pitching giving up two guys that are on the cusp of even being league average arms I think would be a mistake.

If the Reds could make it something like Hamilton, EE, and one of Bailey/Cueto I think I would do it. EE and Hamilton are expendable and you have to give up something to get something.

If they could find a way to make the deal while keeping Bruce, Bailey and Cueto I'd definately be for it, but that would be a pipe dream in my opinion.

I would also like to see a extension window when that much talent is sent the other way. But I think Bedard really wants to test the FA market, a couple big years in the NL could earn him a major pay day after all.

I don't think I would give up Bailey one for one for Bedard. I know Bedard is a stud but will be testing the FA market after the '09 season. Bailey is under club control for the next 5-6 years and will be a monster soon enough.
Not a good move in my opinion. I think if the Reds offered Bailey and Votto right now, the Orioles would take it in about 2 seconds. I don't think the Reds are that dumb.

In getting Bailey and Votto the Orioles get two of the top 35 prospects in the game, so I don't know how much more they could ask for. When you look at Cincy you have Bruce, Bailey, Cueto, Hamilton, Votto, and Encarnacion as six of the best young players around. I think that any two of those(other than Bruce or both pitchers) plus a younger prospect like a Stubbs, Francisco, or Frazier should be more than enough for the Orioles.

The Cubs can't beat Harang let alone Harang/Bedard. The Reds make this move and I think they are tied with the Brewers, assuming they get Gagne, as central favorites

If I am on drugs explain to me how the cubs match up with the reds and brewers assuming this Bedard deal goes down

F**** it, why don't they go after Santana already

I'm hardly a cubs fan. But a pitcher like Bedard would be good for the Reds if they didn't have Dusty Baker as his manager. Same with Bailey and Cueto.

Bedard would be broken down in a year.

@MaxxPower

So I guess you weren't feeling the "Crisp for Santana" deal, huh?

Not that the bullpen of the Reds is that great by any stretch of the imagination, but I'm pretty certain that Bedard would be the only pitcher worth taking from the O's. The bullpen is certainly not worth picking from.
If I recall correctly, that is the same bullpen that surrendered 24 EARNED RUNS against Texas in the 30-3 game.
Cincy should seek bullpen help (which they desperately need) elsewhere.

The Reds should not waste their time by depleting their farm system for two years of Bedard..........cause He will be a Bluejay when his contract expires!!!

"Cincy will have no chance as always. They'll have the strong start, half their position players will get hurt, Dunn will fall down, then Dusty Baker will finish off the pitching staff. They'll be dead and floating around the bottom. PS, Hey Cincy Thanks for letting us stick around to sing "Go Cubs Go" after clinching the division by whooping your asses. You should try to woo DeRosa somehow. You could throw any of your guys at him. There was a point this year where he went 10 FOR 10 against Reds pitching. Single handedly beating you twice. LOL....haha reds? Oh that was good"

Good luck winning the World Series this century.

I think the Reds could get Bedard without giving up Bailey or Bruce, but they'd need to add 1-2 more prospects. I doubt the Orioles would have much interest in Hamilton. If I were MacPhail I'd propose something like Bedard and Tejada for Encarnacion, Votto, Cueto, and 2-3 lesser prospects.

I like the guy talking trash on the Reds, at least they didn't have to hide their best starter because they knew he would lose if he pitched his normal spot. Zambrano is a chump and scared of Harang.

As far as Dusty ruining young guys' arms for the Reds, I don't see it happening. The Reds front office babied Bailey so much, they'll do the same with Cueto and if they feel that Baker is putting them on a path headed for disaster I don't doubt for a second they'd step in.

Harang could very well win a Cy Young himself with the help of a bona fide closer. So, if you add Bedard to him...watch out. The Cubs have no one who wants any piece of Harang, let alone Bedard.

The deal could include Bailey or Cueto, not both. Votto or Hamilton, not both. I think Encarnacion has to go in the deal, opening an everyday spot for Keppinger. I wish they'd trade Dunn, but it won't happen.

The big problem I have with trading Bailey is that you'd still need a 4th starter. Cueto or the other prospects aren't ready and Livingston is still hurt.

I don't know if it can happen, but I'd love to see a deal that leaves the Reds with Votto and Hamilton and Cueto. Wishful thinking maybe. I just think Hamilton is an MVP waiting to happen.

Aduncaroo,
Maybe he isn't scared of Harang but the Cubs certainly showed a lack of confidence at the end of last year. Rather then pitching him on normal rest where he and Harang would have matched up for the second to last game of the regular season, they pitched him a day earlier.

there is no way that the reds get bedard and not give up homer bailey. unless they include jay bruce.

Bedard in the NL Central would not be good for the Cubs at all. None of the prospects being mentioned did anything for the Reds last year so it would be a 100% gain to the team. Burton and Bray showed some really good stuff in the last half of the season and now with Cordero, that's a quality pitching staff and the hitting was already there.

Say what you will about Dusty, but he knows how to manage teams to win especially if he has the right pieces. If the Reds got Bedard, I'd have to say they were the favorites in the NL. It would be a very close race between the Cubs and the Reds, but close nevertheless. The Brewers would come 5-7 games back in 3rd, and the Pirates, Astros, and Cards would fight for not bottom with the Cards probably losing out in the end.

If I were the Reds, I would hold on to Cueto and trade Homer. Homer hasn't shown the control or command yet to succeed in the majors and could easily take another 2-3 years before he truly emerges (if at all). Cueto doesn't have as good of stuff, but he can probably help the Reds more in 2008, plus he doesn't need as much development. Plus, Homer has more trade value.

I bet the Reds are offering Hamilton and Cueto, and maybe Stubbs.

I could see the O's wanting Bailey, Votto, and two others.

Maybe the compromise is Votto, Cueto, and other. My guess is the Reds prefer Votto to Hamilton and Bailey to Cueto.

The Cubs started Zambrano a day early last year for a lot of reasons, none of which had anything to do with Aaron Harang. They were looking toward the playoffs. Listen, I'm a Cubs fan, but I like the Reds, and I respect Harang. But you have to know that it had absolutely nothing to do with him. How did Zambrano do by the way??? He clinched the division so the rest of the pitchers could be pitched however they wanted them to. Believe me, they knew what they were doing and it had nothing to do with Harang.

I agree. The O's asked for LaRoche, Kershaw AND Kemp and got turned down. Let's see... thats 2 in BA's top 25 AND another stud position prospect. I bet they're not willing to go much lower than that. So maybe for the Reds they are looking at Bailey, Votto, and Hamilton or E. Encarnacion. Or Jones, Balentien and Morrow, or for the Mets... well basically everthing they've got. Like the Santana trade, this is extremely critical to the O's org. that they win in this trade. If the Reds or whoever are to get Bedard its going to hurt their franchise's future significantly.

Agreed. And it's not even so much that they win, I 100% feel like Bedard is the real deal and will hate to loose him. However, MacPhail will take his time and pick the best possible final offer. Winning for the Orioles is making sure we get the best possible deal (which won't be a bad deal for the other team considering the studness that is Bedard).

Even though Bailey + Edwin + a lesser prospect might "get it done." I don't think that actually will get it done.

I think the Reds will definately get Bedard. Unfortunately for Cincy fans, I think it will be the Redbirds from St. ouis.

I don't think St. Louis has enough to get Bedard. They would obviously have to include Rasmus, but then who else to even make the deal remotely plausible?

Is anyone else troubled by John Fay's suggestion that the only other good target (besides Bedard) was Lieber?

The Reds have to be willing to include Hamilton here... they got him for nothing. And he showed a ton of promise that was originally projected years ago for him... but if you can spin a Rule 5 pick into Bedard (who could have won the Cy Young had he played the last month), you have to be MORE than pleased if that's what the O's ask for.

As far as Encarnacion, I know he was supposed to be amazing -- and has showed a good stick -- but someone you have to send down repeatedly for work-ethic issues... again, you have to be willing to trade someone like that if they are requested -- especially when the return is Bedard.

Reds should sit on their prospects rather than overpay for Bedard. Let Bailey and Cueto develop and then go get the stud pitcher next year with the 2009 free agent class. With Dunn and Griffey off the books they can afford it and if they hang on to Bruce and Hamilton they can replace Dunn and Griffey's production. Thats the leverage a team like the Reds have over the O's is that Baltimore needs to trade Bedard to restock their team and have a chance to win. If they dont add young position talent then they will lose the next two years, Bedard will leave, and they will be worse off then before. The Reds can sit tight, develop their players, and compete.

Yeah, that's basically what I was arguing above. Bedard will not be on the Orioles next year, so you don't have to worry about us wasting him and being worse off.

My point is, you aren't competing against yourself. You're competing with other teams for Bedard. The way I see it is, the Reds can do what they want, but they don't really have any leverage over the Orioles. They just have too many suitors for Bedard. If you guys pull out, that's fine, we'll move on to one of our other 10 offers.

If you want him, you'll have to pay up, if not, we'll move on.

lmao all u reds fans saying trading prospects will ruin ur future. do u guys not know how good erik bedard is?

personally i don't get why everyone isn't after santana instead, hes been awesome the last 5 years. The reds need to pursure him! His price is almost the same as Bedard and you are getting a sure thing pitcher. Bedard the last 2 years has been really good. But if you compare him to Santana there is no comparison. Santana is way better. The reds would only be getting one year, but after this year they would be dumping Dunn and Griffey's contract and could sign him for a long term deal. The reds need Santana

"Bailey, Dunn, Votto, and Coffee to the O's!"

That's wayyyyy too much for Bedard. Essentially in exchange for an ace, you're willing to give up a top notch middle of the order hitter, an elite pitching prospect with ace potential, an elite 1b prospect, and a solid reliever? And if the Reds decide to trade for Bedard, implying they're gonna try and win next year, then there is no way they would include Adam Dunn in a deal. It'd be more something like Homer Bailey, Joey Votto and Josh Hamilton for Bedard. The Reds would still have a damn good lineup.
C Ross
1B Hatteberg
2B Phillips
3B Encarnacion
SS Gonzalez
LF Dunn
CF Bruce/Freel
RF Griffey Jr.

Rotation: Harang, Bedard, Arroyo, Belisle, Cueto

Okay, I've heard it all now....I'm a Reds fan and I'll be the first to say that there's no way Coffee is a "solid" reliever. He's about as crappy as the come. The only running that guy ever does is coming out of the bullpen! Horrible...how many times was he back in Louisville last year? More than Encarnacion I promise you that. (3 times I think).

There's a cultural problem in Cincy regarding work ethic...starts with Jr. and his buddy Donkey Kingman and trickles down to guys like Coffee. They say he's lost almost 20 pounds this offseason, that's because Dusty isn't going to play that. That guy could cut down on sweets and lose 25, I'm not impressed. He'll be extremely lucky to earn a spot on the 25!

If the O's would take Dunn AND Coffee off our hands I'd do a cartwheel. I'm not too fat to do it either.

Get Bedard Krivdog, do what you have to.

i wouldn't be scared about losing dunn...he actually costs runs and therefore games with his defense.

c ross
1b hatteberg(leads off)
2b phillips
3b keppinger
ss wood
lf hamilton
cf bruce
rf griffey

hopper and freel for when griffey goes down (bruce slides to rf and hopper in cf best bet) wood from angels for encarnacion

rotation: bedard harang arroyo belisle silva

fa dotel or vizcaino for bullpen or find someone in farm system for bullpen in season

I'm the Get it Done guy.

And I think the deal can get done without Bruce. All due respect to the "can't miss" misses, one thing I look for is attitude. That's why I can't stand Dunn and why I love Hamilton, Votto and Bruce. All three guys will do whatever they can to get better. That's what sets a guy like Pujols apart.

Of course as a Red's fan I probably overvalue our guys, but IMO our position player prospects are as good if not better than the other guys I've heard tied to either Bedard or Santana. The value of Bailey or Cueto vs. other teams top pitching is debatable and I'd be the first to admit I'd rather have Hughes or Lester or Bucholz or Kershaw....etc.

My sincere hope is that the internal scouting reports are sound, and Krivsky has a limit to how far he'll go. Hopefully it's far enough without selling off the farm. I actually love the guy, and have faith in him with or without Bedard.

I was thinking the other day, do you think the Red Sox regret giving up Hanley Ramirez for Beckett? No.

Anybody ever think that maybe Wood and Prior are just fragile? Who's arm did he blow out in SF? Honestly, I don't remember.....

I didn't exactly do cartwheels when they signed him, but I'm on board now. He, as much as anyone, got Cordero signed.

The Reds as an organization have babied pitchers since the Bowden regime, and they have the same pitching coach as last year.

I think this is mostly salty Cubs fans looking for a scapegoat because they blew two straight home games against the Marlins. Bartman my ass.

As for you Cubs fans singing in Great American last year, I'd have beat the crap out of you if I hadn't been outnumber 5-1.

Krivsky for mayor!

"They say he's lost almost 20 pounds this offseason, that's because Dusty isn't going to play that"

OMG!! Your kidding me right? If you believe that, then you paid absolutely no attention to what went on Chicago. Tim Dierkes, Aduncaroo feel free to chime in. Dusty never held anyone acountable in Chicago. The clubhouse was a disaster, players were calling the press box in the middle of the game to criticize Steve Stone...If the guy lost 25 pounds thats good....but dont give Dusty credit for that.

I know there is talk about Hamilton in the deal, and that is why we are apparently talking to Mike Cameron.

The Reds STILL have no addressed the need for a leadoff hitter. I don't think they have had a legitimate leadoff hitter since Deion came back for the 3rd time back in 2001 or 2002 for his 3 game swing.

If Scott Hatteberg trots out at leadoff again, I'm going to wonder what the hell is going on.

Include Hamilton in the deal, sign Cameron, put him at leadoff, and let's roll.

Hamilton
Bailey
Votto

Final Offer

...that being said, this is not a slight against Bruce, Cueto, or Bailey but out of that group, I think the Reds should consider it a major success if 2 guys reach their potential for a 10 yr span...but, considering ML adjustment time/performance/health, the liklihood of that is not a lock...all of these guys will get ML time eventually, no doubt...but it is possible that only 1 becomes even a regular...

Trading away Cueto and/or Bailey would be unwise in my opinion.

The Red's have been notorious for sucking at developing young arms, and talented ones at that. Both Cueto and Bailey are very talented and have the makings of core members of a major league rotation...possibly even aces. It's prospects like these that Cincy needs to hold onto, especially so because they play on a t-ball field.

As much as I would hate to do it, I'd deal Bruce and some others for Bedard. Bruce and Votto? Perhaps...but that's about it. Or, Bruce and a few lower tier prospects (Frazier, Maloney, Stubbs). The one thing Cincy has going for them is an influx of talented position players. Why not deal some for another potential ace, and at the same time keep two potential aces in the making? It comes down to the pathetic excuse for a MLB ballpark GABP for me. It's much easier to get people to knock the ball out of it, then keeping it in. I believe Bailey and Cueto can do just this. Heck, Bailey only gave up 2 hr's in GABP in 31 innings. Spread that over a full season (about 200 innings) and that's around 14-15 hr's allowed. That's not to say it's a given...just what the numbers would suggest. I don't know anybody who wouldn't consider that an amazing feat in itself.

And for all those that consider Homer to be a bust based on what he showed this past season...you gotta be kidding me!! Of his 9 starts , five of them were decent starts. You can even stretch that number to six if you count the start against the Angels in which he left having given up 2 runs and then Majewski sucked it up and allowed all the runners he inherited to score. Yes, these runs are accredited to Homer, but seriously...Majewski is a joke (and I don't want to hear the whole "well he's been hurt...) as was the rest of the bullpen for that matter...anyone of them could/would have surrendered those runs...so it was a no-win situation for Homer. I fully expected command issues from Homer. Combine that with a terrible bullpen and team and you're bound to get mixed results. It's quite sad that people were and are expecting him to be the next Roger Clemens so early in his career. Give the kid a chance to get his feet wet. I think he will have a fairly decent season in '08. He's going to have some security at the back end of the pen and some experience. I will not be surprised to see the 97-98 mph gas, that he possesses, on a regular basis come 2008.

Allow me to correct myself.

I made the home run's allowed projections for Bailey (baised on his '07 campaign) on a 200 inning season solely in GABP. This obviously wouldn't be the case. His innings would roughly be half at home and half on the road. Thus, you can cut his projected homer runs allowed in GABP even more.*

*These are solely projections and in no way a statement of absolute truth. These figures are just simply the representation of the stats Homer has compiled and projected over a full season(and in this instance, 200 innings).

...Bedard is a LHP Ace..consider the rarity of that...the distinct advantage of that is having a natural advantage over traditional elite power from LHBs...in the majors in any given time, you can count elite LH SPs on one hand...and #2 is Bedard...#1 is Johan...

...Johan is an elite all-around pitcher who can do it all extremely well, centered around a devastating changeup, the best in the game...Bedard is a very deceptive power pitcher with a one of the best cutters and curves in the game...he is not too big so he doesn't look intimidating or a fireballer...but during his windup, he turns his back completely around, and releases in such a way that it's impossible to pick up and looks like it comes out of his shoulder or elbow...and it is either a late sinking 94-97 mph 4-seam fastball, 90-93 mph 9-3 cutter, or a curveball that is more an more an impossible pitch to hit...in his 15+ SO games last season, the curve was literally thrown on back-to-back-to-back-back pitches to guys like Michael Young and Mark Teixeira and batters could not even make contact...you really have to see that curve when it is tight to appreciate it is one of those types of pitches where you can tell the batter what is coming and they just cannot hit it...

...the funny thing here is that I consider Harang to be a very high quality pitcher himself...but Bedard suffers from a similar fate as him...by playing for the Os, like Harang for the Reds, considering how good he is, he has no right being as relatively unknown as he has been...if either Harang or Bedard played for the Yanks/BoSox or other media buzzed teams, we'd be sick of these guys by now...

I don't doubt the abilities of Bedard at all. He has an outstanding repertoire. I just think the Red's need to keep Bailey and Cueto because they ultimately need as many high quality arms to compete in there stadium. And if trading Bruce and others is what it takes...so be it. Home runs are easier to replace than W's.

And I agree, Harang is extremely underrated. Yes, if he were with a big-market club he'd get much more attention and cy young votes for that matter. (Harang deserved at least second place in 2006).

Are you a Red's fan or O's?

Could you imagine a rotation of Bedard, Harang, Arroyo, and if they develop into the top notch starters like they've projected, Bailey and Cueto??...That would hands down be the best starting 5 in the NLC...NL...possibly even the majors. That's only if Bailey and Cueto blossom. That's 4 guys (Bedard, Harang, Bailey, and Cueto) that can mow down 200 a year a piece. Call me optimist if you want...but it's very possible.

The only obstacle to a Bedard-Harang-Bailey-Cueto rotation is that it will take 1-2 elite prospects to get Bedard...and the amount of farms that have 2 elite prospects to give are all in the running for Bedard...personally I don't think we've seen the market high for Johan and Bedard yet...wait til the Japanese pitcher signs and the servicable non-tender SPs sign...IMO proposing a deal now for Bedard might actually be a way to get him relatively cheap the way this market is shaping up...

...we have maybe 6-9 near contention teams in search of starting pitching, many of them happen to be the very top farms in baseball...and the high man very soon on the Free Agent market will be Carlos Silva...we might see a strange inversion of trends in baseball where the rich-big-market-but-poor-farms teams are suddenly the ones left out in the cold while the poor-small-market-but-good-farm teams end up being the big movers and shakers...

...also to answer your question from before, I am an Orioles fan who has watched baseball for 30+ years...but being a Os fans of the 70s, I got a chance to sink my teeth into watching the minor leagues so at this point, I think I am pretty rational about players and know a thing or two about evaluating them...I know about Orioles prospects of course, but I also have seen either a AA or AAA team for every ML org last year...I can safely say that I know of and have seen most of every team's biggest prospects for the last 10 years or so...Bailey is a longtime coming as a story...he still holds the same very high potential he has always had...I am just cautious because as great a prospect he is, I have maybe seen 70-80 Homer Bailey's in my lifetime...that's not to insinuate that he is a common talent at all...it's just to underscore the perspective that a Johan/Bedard/Haren/Peavy/Sheets today is usually worth more or the same as Could-Be-Johan/Bedard/Haren/Peavy/Sheets tomorrow...