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Stark: Howard Not Likely To Accept Deal Similar To Pujols
In a recent blog post, Jayson Stark notes that everybody should be paying close attention to the Ryan Howard arbitration case and speculates that Howard and the Phillies are much farther apart that the $3MM difference in their arbitration numbers. In fact, the distance between the two sides can be measured as the difference between Albert Pujols and Alex Rodriguez.
Stark says:
The Phillies renewed Howard at $900,000 last year--precisely the same amount Pujols got from the Cardinals the year before he was eligible for arbitration. Next up, the Phillies will no doubt offer Howard a long-term deal that mirrors the seven-year, $100 million contract Pujols signed with the Cardinals in his first year of arbitration eligibility.
That might sound reasonable from afar. But there is no chance --zero--that the reaction to that offer...is going to sound anything like: Where do we sign?
A-Rod is more what this particular family has in mind.
The $7MM arbitration figure offered by the Phillies is the same amount Pujols made in the first year of his contract extension (his first arbitration-eligible season). The biggest argument against the Pujols comparison is that the Cardinals signed their young record-breaking slugger to a 7-year, $100MM contract in 2004, and there has been an explosion in baseball revenue in the last four years. The Phillies would argue that Howard's numbers, while historic, are not equal to what Pujols accomplished in his first three seasons. The Phillies appear to be trying to balance performance against inflation.
Stark does not go so far as to say that Howard is seeking $250MM, but does speculate that it would take seven years and at least $150MM. If Stark is right, and the two sides cannot work out an agreement prior to the arbitration hearing, this could get ugly.
By Cork Gaines
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If it really is Howard's position that he should be paid as if he was already a free agent, then the Phillies' position should be to go year to year. It's one thing for him and his agent to think he's worth $25M a year on the open market, but it makes no sense at all for the team to overpay for what would be the arb years.
Posted by: mac_1103 | January 29, 2008 at 03:23 PM
Ryan Howard is delusional. Pujols is 28, has played 7 full seasons and has averaged .332/.420./.620. Howard is 28, has played 2 full seasons and averaged .291/.397/.610. He should be grateful he's even being compared to Pujols. A-Rod isn't worth A-Rod money, but he's 32, has played 12 full seasons and averaged .306/.389/.578 and there's that MVP thing. Howard is no A-Rod.
Posted by: DB | January 29, 2008 at 03:26 PM
If Howard had average power, he would probably be retired from baseball right now. He broke the record for Ks in a seaso (by a hitter), plays pretty bad defense, doesn't have the greatest average, and can't run.
Posted by: johansantana17 | January 29, 2008 at 03:34 PM
In other words, he's a 1-tool player where as Pujols and A-Rod are 5-tool players.
Posted by: johansantana17 | January 29, 2008 at 03:36 PM
I'm a Phils fan and like Howard a lot, but he's being ridiculous. It's like they want the Phillies to completely ignore how the system works. From what I hear, it's his father who is the biggest problem. Go year to year with him and let him learn how the system works.
Posted by: brian2706 | January 29, 2008 at 03:41 PM
Agreed. Go year to year, and let him leave when he becomes a FA (and will be in decline).
If he causes a real problem, he'll have a ton of trade value.
Posted by: bobo | January 29, 2008 at 04:00 PM
i completely agree with everyones post so far. pujols is a complete player. he is a great hitter, not the black jim thome. pujols plays great defense. pujols hits for average and to all fields. pujols and arod can be compared but howard just hits homers. howards barely in shape.
Posted by: Joelcards | January 29, 2008 at 04:55 PM
As a Phils fan - I love Howard but I had a feeling this was coming. He can be pretty dominant AT TIMES but I dont know that he should be getting so much more than Utley and Rollins.
I think he would look REALLY good in Boston - for Youk, Bucholz and Lester?
LAA? Brandon Wood, Nick Adenhart, and Ervin Santana
LAD - LaRoche, Loney, Lowe and Broxton.
NYY? Hughes, Horne, Austin Jackson & Mussina (needs work)
We better do something - with the Mets landing Santana and all. I like the Angels deal...
Posted by: steveh | January 29, 2008 at 05:57 PM
I think he would look REALLY good in Boston - for Youk, Bucholz and Lester?
Uhmm....no with extreme prejudice. Lemme see: an rookie with ace potential (w/ a no-hitter up his sleeve), a #3/4 lefty under control for years and Gold glove 1B that hits for average. Wow!
Howard is a one trick pony - I realize that chick dig the long ball, but he's a glorified 2000 version of Mo Vaughn.
Great homer stats, but no D..not too mention slow as an ox.
Howard is a good player, but he's not even the 2nd best player on his own team.
He's not worth any of those trade proposals, steveh
Posted by: kingstephanos | January 29, 2008 at 06:20 PM
LAA? Brandon Wood, Nick Adenhart, and Ervin Santana
For Howards ???
Maybe, Santana and Wood
Guys like Howards, who are one dimensional (strikeout or homerun) hitters aren't really that desirable, especially when you know you can't sign him longterm for any reasonable amount. The Angels wanted Konerko, but Konerko brings sooo many other qualities to a team that Howards could only dream about
Posted by: BaseBallz | January 29, 2008 at 07:52 PM
Yeah are you serious? Every single one of those offers is blatantly preposterous. Those offers clearly surpass what was being talked about for Santana and Cabrera, the best pitcher and probably the best young hitter in baseball.
Here's my revised, far more likely scenarios:
LAD: LaRoche, Scott Elbert, Andre Ethier
Although I seriously doubt the Dodgers would want to get a first baseman, considering Loney is already there and is probably gonna be awesome.
LAA: Kotchman, Santana, Napoli, Willits
NYY: Kennedy, Jackson, Marquez
BOS: Lester, Crisp, Bowden
Don't forget the Sox also have Lars Anderson in the minors and he could end up being special one day.
No team will give up their best, elite prospect[s] for a one dimensional guy like Howard.
ALSO REMEMBER
Mark Teixeira will be a free agent next summer. One of the big budget teams will likely offer him a massive deal, effectively taking them out of the Howard sweepstakes.
Posted by: scribbletone | January 29, 2008 at 08:04 PM
I am in agreement with most of this stuff. Howard is good, but he needs to stop acting like he is great. By the way, I love Pujols, but I don't know anyone that considers him a 5 tool player. He is a good runner, but isn't a fast one. He plays great D, but at the easiest defensive position out there. Don't get me wrong, he is 1 of the 2 best players in the game...but he doesn't have 5 tools. Its just that the tools that he does have are just ridiculously amazing.
Posted by: Aduncaroo | January 29, 2008 at 09:45 PM
Ryan Howard passing up the 7-year/$100m offer is something he's probably going to regret in the future. He may be able to squeeze a bit more out of it due to inflation but he's not going to get $150-200m at his age. I'm thinking this ends up being a Garciaparra-esque regret later on for not taking the guarenteed money while it's there.
Ryan Howard should be ecstatic that he's being offered Pujols money instead of David Ortiz money (who he's more comperable to). I'm not going to say Howard is greedy because his payday is overdue but it gets to a certain point where money is just a number and you don't really feel a difference. If he gets a front-loaded 7 year deal (big signing bonus and a higher salary in the first 2 years than the middle years) worth around $125m, he should jump on it. He is a very good power hitter now but if he waits, he may not get his big payday until he's on the decline. If he pushes his luck now, it may come back to haunt him.
Posted by: TNS | January 29, 2008 at 10:11 PM
Who gives a crap about Ryan Howard. Slugging first basemen are not that hard to find, first base is the last position I'd overpay for. Plus Howard's already getting older, it's not like he's 25.
Posted by: DentalPlan | January 30, 2008 at 12:35 AM
The key word in the synopsis is "speculation". Personally I have looked high and low through a lot of blogs, websites, etc. and I have not found even one decent reference to any numbers (long term) being offered by the Phillies. And the only reference to a long term deal from the Howard camp was in an interview by his agent, Casey Close that stated it was safe to assume that they were looking for something larger than Utleys deal.
So I hesitate to even believe that the Phillies are realistically considering any long term deal at this present moment.
I TOTALLY agree with TNS's post about 7/$125 mil. There is no way he would turn that down. Especially with the endorsements rolling in.
Posted by: tgshaw | January 30, 2008 at 02:10 AM
Here's my comparison of the two hitters based on The HOGWOG Method (www.StartWinningAgain.com):
OVERALL:
Pujols -32 HW, -54 HWa, -185 HWp
Howard -39 HW, -74 HWa, -134 HWp
RANKINGS:
HDG List 2 -- HOGWOG Draft Field:
Pujols: #12
Howard: #23
HDG List 3 -- Speed Summary:
Howard #71
Pujols: #73
HDG List 4 -- Power Summary:
Howard #37
Pujols #58
HDG List 5 -- Walks Summary:
Pujols: #49
Howard: #117
HDG List 1B:
Pujols: #4
Howard: #7
HBF Charts:
Howard: Above average. HOGWOG has ranged between -25 and -53 for a career median -34 HOGWOG over four seasons. Generally trending flat overall with ups and downs. Coming off a recession season.
Pujols: Above average with an upward trend overall. HOGWOG has ranged between -17 and -59 for a career median -30 HOGWOG over seven seasons. 2007 was a recession year. Had four straight seasons with Hall-of-Fame-Caliber HOGWOG performances (as compared to composite HOF group).
ANALYSIS:
In terms of overall HOGWOG rankings, Howard runs a not-so distant #23 to a Pujols #12. The pair's power rankings (HOGWOGp) are also fairly close with Pujols at #58 and Howard at #37. The HOGWOG Batter Forecasts (HBF) charts also reveal the two are fairly equal in terms of HOF-Caliber HOGWOG performances (as compared to the HOF Sample Set) where both put up two such seasons after four years in the Majors. What's glaringly different between them, however, is the disparity in HOGWOGa (HWa) scores: Howard posted a #117 to Pujols' #49.
CONCLUSION:
There appears to be one particular area where Pujols and Howard are nothing alike in terms of batting prowess. That is, the better HWa score put up by Pujols shows that he has a much better eye and plate discipline. Howard, on the other hand, is a free swinger indeed. (In fact, even Adam Dunn and Vladimir Guerrero were better than Howard here). Both Howard and Pujols have been successful of course, but how should plate discipline - or the lack thereof - impact a player's earning potential? I think, if one is going to get Pujols money - inflation aside - one should have all the tools of a Pujols, not just most of them.
Posted by: james_welty | January 30, 2008 at 03:45 PM
kingstephanos,
that was somewhat the point of me posing the questions
what would fans of other teams actually be willing to give up...
more than likely, we will go year to year and he will walk or balk (like schill and rolen b4 him).
Howard is under control for 3 more years (2008/9/10) by the way, he will just get a lot in arb.
He's a one trick pony but its a heckuva trick....that kind of power is NOT a dime a dozen....
However, he is NOT A-Rod and as someone pointed out, maybe only the 2nd best player on our team (full disclosure - my 10-month son is named Chase but thats another story)
Posted by: steveh | January 30, 2008 at 06:26 PM