Long-Term Deal For Felix Hernandez?

I would personally go year to year with him...he throws so violently, an injury could occur at any time. But if they do buy out his arbitration years...I wouldn't call that a bad thing either. I'm more surprised about Felix's comment about not caring about his contract now.

I would increase 2008s season to lower the yearly hit and make it 16MM over the next 4 seasons and then tack on two years of free agency because with all the things you say about the cons to signing him long-term, the fact is that a pitcher like him still commands $12-14MM a season at last years level and he'll only get better, so it would be very beneficial for the M's to sign Hernandez for 6 years and lower the overall average of the deal later by giving him a little extra now, otherwise they are going to have to sacrifice talent in the long run. I think you go for about $24MM/2YRS for the free agency period and it makes the deal about 40MM, but that ties him up through 28 years old and it means only paying him 6.67MM a season, which he definitely worth.

Even if he makes a couple trips to the DL, also I would like to point out that he is said to have very solid mechanics and actually has less strain on his arm than most pitchers because of his pitching motion, so it's not necessarily true that he's an injury risk. Aside from a leg injury he's been for the most part injury free, so there is nothing to warrant this concern at this point of his career.

Don't forget, he has gone through the most injury riddled part of a pitchers career relatively unscathed and as a pitcher gets older he becomes less likely to become an injury problem. Most injuries that a player has is related to some past trip to the DL. I think Felix will probably never pitch less than 25 starts in a season unless he does something unthinkable like breaking an ankle covering first or something unexpected.

Also, look what Ryan Howard got for his arbitration case and realize that 10MM may be more than Hernandez gets, but even $6-7MM in his second arbitration season would put him half way to 15MM.

It's always a good idea to lock up young pitching. I hope by this time next year the Giants will have an extension with Lincecum. If Hernandez gets $15-17MM that could be what Lincecum gets.

I think the kid will be amazing. However, you pay out based on performance, not potential.

What Ryan Howard has done is in no way comparable to Felix. Howard has had epic years. Felix has had a great 1/3rd of a year, a very mediocre 2nd year, and a slightly better than LA 3rd year.

And locking up young pitching does not always work out. The Cubs had a few guys that were dominant youngsters who fell apart through injury. Ervin Santana went 28-16 through his first 2 years at the age of 23. He was AAA for most of last year.

Plenty of guys have great stuff and either get injured or don't perform at the expected level. I would definitely wait and see if Felix can put it together before I offer anything long-term.

Again, for the record, I would bet on the guy turning out to be a dominant pitcher. I just wouldn't bet $30m on it yet.