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« Derek Lowe Enters Contract Year | Main | Odds and Ends: Ponson, Inge, Papelbon »
ESPN's Buster Olney says Kyle Lohse is currently looking for a one-year deal between $4-10MM. According to Olney, multiple teams have expressed their disinterest in the Boras-represented Lohse. Lohse at $5MM seems really solid - how is this guy out of work on March 3rd? He's even young enough to have upside, which can't be said for Livan Hernandez.
On Sunday, Dan Graziano of the Newark Star-Ledger said the Mets hadn't ruled out Lohse. The Mets would probably need to unload an arm or two first though. Shouldn't the Phillies, Astros, and Cardinals be in on Lohse too?
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You would think the Cards would jump on Lohse at $5 million right away but who the hell knows what that team is doing.
Posted by: fitz | March 03, 2008 at 09:27 AM
I think he is coming to NY to be the number 5 and slide up into the number 4 next year when Perez leaves and have Pelfrey move into the 5 spot in 2009 with El Duque in the pen in 2007. But who knows.
Posted by: nrmax88 | March 03, 2008 at 09:50 AM
It just seems to fit with the Mets supposedly trying to move Sosa or Show.
Posted by: nrmax88 | March 03, 2008 at 09:50 AM
I agree. Loshe seems bound for the Mets with Omar shopping Show and Sosa.
Its funny that he would want a one year deal. Its only going to get worse for Loshe. He had trouble finding a suitor in a week free agent class. Imagine next year with Sheets, Penny, Sabathia, Lowe, O.P., Prior, and maybe Burnett.....good luck getting sniffing $9M Kyle. Loshe at $5M, finally the market is making sense!
Posted by: coolpapabell | March 03, 2008 at 10:06 AM
4-10mil, couldnt be a little more specific? If Lohse takes a 1yr deal, I can't see half the teams in MLB not going after him. He wasn't an allstar or anything, but he made a great strech run for the Phillies in September, I cant comprehend the Phils not wanting to upgrade their rotation with a low risk 1yr deal.
Posted by: phightins | March 03, 2008 at 10:06 AM
This begs the question nrmax, do pay O.P. his 5yrs at $15/yr?
Posted by: coolpapabell | March 03, 2008 at 10:09 AM
Why don't the cubs signed him? He could be that #3 guy in the rotation instead of Ryan Dempster. Then it could look like this.
SP- Carlos Zambrano
SP- Ted Lilly
SP- Kyle Lohse
SP- Rich Hill
SP- Jon Lieber
Posted by: CUBBIES2008 | March 03, 2008 at 10:18 AM
Kyle Lohse in front of Lieber AND Hill? Hardly.
Lohse is terrible, there's a reason nobody's picked him up. Chacon has more upside than Lohse and that's not saying much. Didn't he throw for some teams? Maybe they didn't like what they saw.
Posted by: WHIPit | March 03, 2008 at 10:36 AM
Lohse would be a great insurance plan for any team with a high payroll and question marks in their rotation. Hopefully you wouldn't have to use him much but at least if someone did go down you would have a decent #5 that could step in and do the job.
Posted by: bjsguess | March 03, 2008 at 10:44 AM
The Cardinals have been right to avoid Lohse. He's not enough of an improvement over anything they have to get tied into anything involving length or a decent amount of money. Even at 1/5 I am not a fan of signing Lohse when I don't think he would even crack the starting rotation by the time the 3 rehabbing guys are ready to go. Plus the Cardinals are about to receive a big influx of young talent from the minor leaguers. Jaime Garcia, Clayton Mortensen and Kyle McClellan have all impressed the coaching staff alot this spring.
Posted by: ozziethesaint | March 03, 2008 at 10:54 AM
Lohse seems destined for the Mets, in fact, they seem like the only suitor still interested. 1 year / 5 mill and an option (7 mill?) is my guess. Sosa or Schoeneweis is traded, probably Sosa, El Duque moves to the bullpen, Lohse is the #5 and we see where we're at next Offseason.
"This begs the question nrmax, do pay O.P. his 5yrs at $15/yr?
Posted by: coolpapabell | March 03, 2008 at 10:09 AM "
If he repeats 2007, probably, although I'd try to sell him on 5/65 or so first. Otherwise, no. Granted, if he doesn't repeat 2007 then he won't be commanding 5/75 in the open market.
Posted by: AdropOFvenom | March 03, 2008 at 11:02 AM
You cannot put all the blame on Boras! He has other clients who found homes. Lohse - as all Twins fan know - is at best a mediocre pitcher. He really isn't worth much more than the major league minimum but somehow has convinced himself that he deserves a big contract.
Major league teams are always looking for starting pitching. That Lohse is unsigned at this late date is a pretty clear signal that Lohse is not highly regarded and that his salary demands are way out of line.
What upside? Just because a player is "young" does not mean that he has upside. While Lohse has pitched well from time to time, there are guys languishing in Triple AAA that have shown flashes as well but with no expectation that they will get multi-year, big dollar contracts.
A decent #5? Not a chance. Decent only if you are willing to settle for a warm body. Lohse in the rotation means that a team will always be looking to find a replacement. Especially if you are paying him $5million a year!
Posted by: bernie | March 03, 2008 at 11:39 AM
Mid to high 4's in ERA and right around 200ip sounds like a decent #5 guy in most rotations.
He has also posted a few good seasons with ERA's in the low 4's. He is basically Ted Lilly pre-2007. Now Lilly is the #2 or #3 guy in Chicago.
Lohse should take a one year deal and hope to post a low 4 ERA. Then he would be in line for a big ticket contract.
I still think the guy is bad. However, on a one year/$5m deal, FOR A TEAM THAT CAN AFFORD IT, there are worse things you can do.
Posted by: bjsguess | March 03, 2008 at 12:56 PM
Say you are looking for a vintage car, oh I don't know, how about a '67 Mustang Shelby, do you negotiate with the salesman or walk out the door and hope that you run across another one of these rare classics?! The answer is you sit down at the table and try to work it out as best you can if this is the car you really want. As long as you aren't having to overpay by too much, you suck it up and realize that what you are getting back makes too much sense financially as an investment for what you really have to pay out.
So guys like Alex Rodriguez, Adrian Beltre, and soon Mark Teixeira, have all made nice contracts off of Boras' work, but it's because of the value of these players that teams put up with the sleezy car salesman of a player agent that Scott Boras is and hope that the next marquee player will have different representation.
Kyle Lohse is a guy that has NOT ONE out pitch! He throws average for a right-handed pitcher, as lefties can get away with 88-90mph due to the limited supply of southpaws who can pitch, but a righty that throws 91-93 is average. He is known for throwing a relatively movement free pitch and I remember one guy equated hitting off him to taking batting practice! His breaking pitches are average at best and his pitching savvy is the only reason he's even playing baseball today.
The fact is that Lohse is affected by Scott Boras being his agent, yes it's his fault that he's not a better pitcher that's capable of commanding more attention, but many of his suitors won't negotiate with Boras for him. To go back to the car comparison, it's like having great credit, lots of money down and then dealing with a sleezy car salesman so that you can get a 10 year old Honda. Why in the hell would you go through all of that?! You wouldn't. Most of the deals during the winter meetings happen on the golf course or in the bar supposedly while friends who are on opposite sides of the negotiations table are talking casually. It's like selling your old car to your friend so that he can use it as a commuter car. He wouldn't go to a dealership to get one, but he'd buy the car from his friend. If Lohse had an agent that was liked, he would've had his contract!
It didn't help that Lohse went in asking for 5 years and 60 million dollars like a jackass! Then he backed off to 3 years and 36 million, then it was down to 3 years and 10 million per season and now he's looking for 1 year and 5 million, whose more desperate, Lohse or Boras?! You know if Lohse doesn't get at least a two year deal with what he was looking for at the beginning of the offseason, you can bet that Boras will have a steady migration of players leaving the fold of his company! Also, Corey Patterson should've found work but didn't because of Boras and most of the players on the board still are Scott's players. It's not colusion but it's close enough to it to make me happy! You get rid of Boras and it's like having cancer removed from your testicules. You'll never be the same, but at least it's gone!
Posted by: BaseballGuru | March 03, 2008 at 01:20 PM
By the way, I read the heading and at first I skipped over the word "Ready" and added the letter "a" to "Settle" and thought it said Kyle Lohse To Seattle and I swear to God I almost sh*t myself and had a heart attack, until I re-read it, I was about to launch my desk lamp across the room and start cursing profusely while repeating Bavasi's name every other word like a mantra of hatred! Then I realized he wasn't coming to Seattle and I breathed a deep sigh of relief that he will be someone else's problem next season. I'd almost rather have Glenallen Hill patrolling leftfield for the Mariners again rather than have Lohse even coming out of our bullpen... ALMOST!! (for those that aren't aware, Glenallen was the laziest outfielder I have EVER seen, he used to jog, not run, but F-IN' JOG to get balls out of the corner when they were ripped down the 3B-line. I'd say he threw like a girl, but the female gender doesn't deserve to be grouped in with the shiit of the baseball world!)
Posted by: BaseballGuru | March 03, 2008 at 01:31 PM
Kyle Lohse has posted a 4.62 ERA ever since his arrival to the National League. And has done so injury free. A good offense can make this guy into the double digits in W's no problem. I'll take that out of my #5 spot, and so would 75% of the league.
Posted by: phightins | March 03, 2008 at 01:41 PM
4.62 is 5.12 in the AL when you add the .50 to whatever their ERA is and by the way, it was cute how you left off the part where he had the ERA north of 7.00 for half of 2006, but I suppose we'll just forget about that little detail and how it raises his ERA over the last two season to 5.10, right?! If 75% of the league would take that out of their 5th man in the rotation, then he wouldn't be playing baseball at home on his PS3 instead of throwing in spring training!
Posted by: BaseballGuru | March 03, 2008 at 01:53 PM
In reply to your post about the 4.62 ERA being good enough out of your #5 pitcher:
Only 8 of the 16 teams in the NL would've scored more runs per game than what Lohse would surrendered on average across 9 innings. That means his ERA wouldn't have been acceptable for a #5 for half of the NL.
If you take his 5.10 ERA since the beginning of 2006 across both leagues and compare it similarly to ALL teams instead of just the NL, you'll actually see the number drop to 5 teams that could've scored enough runs to make him a serviceable 5th man in their rotation. That means 1/2 of the national league could use him or 1/6 of all of baseball if he has even a spell close to what he did in 2006. Lohse as an option for the 5th spot in the rotation... This myth is clearly busted!
Posted by: BaseballGuru | March 03, 2008 at 02:06 PM
By the way, as a side note for your run support comment as it compares to the Top 100 starters by ERA...
Number of pitchers that had a 4.00 ERA or higher that won 15 games or more?! 6, count them 6. The number of players that had an ERA above 4.00 that won 15 games and didn't pitch for NY or Boston's 140MM+ payroll?! 3 players exceeded 4.00 in their ERA and were able to be successful without the help of an offensive juggernaut like those two teams have.
For players that had a winning record the number goes up A LITTLE! The total goes to 19 players that had a winning record with a 4.00 ERA or higher. Now we minus the starters that finished at an even .500 for winning percentage, which is now winning or losing but rather being absolutely average and I don't count that as a success since 81 wins as a team doesn't get you in the playoffs. We take away the three with a .500 record and that leaves 16 pitchers of the Top 100 when ranked by ERA. Then we minus off the three Yankees/Red Sox pitchers and you have 13 now that finished with a winning record and then you take off the two Colorado pitchers who were both one game over .500 and that would've finished with losing records had they not had the winning streak to end the season, which Lohse surely can't count on to make his stats respectible and the final tidbit is Coors Field and how badly Lohse would get hammered if he were to sign with the Rockies think Fogg pitching right after a 12-pack and you'd be about right! That means the comparable pitchers that were successful numbered 10 and that's giving him a whole bunch of lattitude, like up to .62 runs per 9-innings of lattitude. My final point is that the Red Sox, Yankees, and Rockies were three of the 5 teams that could've offered the run support, go figure! It means he's got a 2 out of 27 chance of getting picked up and I'd rather bet on a horse at the race track, even if it's race name was "Window Licker"!!
Posted by: BaseballGuru | March 03, 2008 at 02:42 PM
Puzzled as to why people think the Cardinals should sign a guy that historically has an ERA of 4.5-5.00? Why pay $5M to a guy to provide what Brad Thompson, Wellemeyer or a rookie can do for 1/10 the price? Even Reyes projects to be better.
The fact is, Lohse SHOULD blame Boras. Why? Because a good agent gives his client REALISTIC contract expectations and clearly Lohse has been given poor advice. Clearly, Boras and Lohse are hoping that some team has crippling injuries during spring training and cough up a contract out of desperation. That's far from a guarantee and I'd love nothing more for Lohse to be on the outside looking in come Opening Day.
Posted by: Devlsh | March 03, 2008 at 03:14 PM
League Average Starter in the NL for 2007:
4.65 ERA ~ .274 BAA ~ 1.99 K/BB ~ 6.30 K/9
Kyle Lohse in 2007:
4.63 ERA ~ .279 BAA ~ 2.14 K/BB ~ 5.70 K/9
Lohse is basically a league average starter in the NL.
One problem is that he had scary Home/Road splits. Good at Home and terrible on the Road.
But for $5M and one year, he's a pretty good pick up for most teams needing an innings eater out of the back end of their rotation. He can't put the team on his back and carry them, but he's not going to bury the team either. I think the durability is his main strong point here, which is something younger pitchers can't always deliver.
And the lack of interest is puzzling. Is it actually because of Boras or does Lohse have a reputation as being a bad clubhouse guy? (I don't know if he does or not, but if he does, then that probably plays a huge part in him not having a job).
Posted by: Darin | March 03, 2008 at 03:22 PM
The only thing that Lohse ever did wrong was hire Boras. It's not because he's a "bad clubhouse guy." Most guys seem to really like playing with him, but that's not what happened here, this is about his agent, plain and simple!
There is one guy under 30 years old who is still available as a position player and that's Corey Patterson, his agent is Boras.
There is one guy under 30 who is still available as a pitcher and that's Kyle Lohse, his agent is Boras.
These two are blackballed until they get a new agent. You won't see anybody sign either one of these guys before the season starts UNLESS they get a new agent!
Posted by: BaseballGuru | March 03, 2008 at 06:37 PM
it seems everyone wants to write an essay on this subject so ill keep it brief. the cardinals are right not to go after lohse. he just isnt that good. at the beginning of this everyone thought he wasnt that good, just people thought someone would be dumb enough to pay him. not only is boras a piece of trash its nice to see teams staying away from him. the wat i have always seen it, if the players agent is boras the player cares about the money too much, and thats not the type of player you want on your team.
Posted by: Joelcards | March 03, 2008 at 08:15 PM
Calm down Guru. Lohse is a league average starter and provides a lot of innings. He's worth whatever he gets at this point.
Posted by: gogopalehose | March 03, 2008 at 11:25 PM
Why wouldn't the astros be interested?
Because they have 6 or 7 starting pitchers age 29 or younger who have the same kind of if not better stuff than lohse. Why pay 4 million for that...again?
Posted by: Ya Hote Ta | March 04, 2008 at 01:12 PM