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« Cubs Sign Reed Johnson | Main | Chat With Tim Dierkes From MLBTR »
Miguel Cabrera Signs Extension
4:08pm: John Lowe has the year by year breakdown and adds that there are ten teams Cabrera can be traded to without his permission.
TUESDAY, 12:44pm: Cabrera's seven-year extension is official. $20MM a year is a solid price for 25 year-old superstar who has never been injured. And Cabrera sets himself up for one more massive deal, just like A-Rod did.
MONDAY, 8:57am: Though we don't have an official announcement and press conference from the Tigers yet, it's obvious that an agreement has been reached. Sabernomics thinks Cabrera will be worth $268MM over this time period; PECOTA feels differently. Cabrera will only be 32 when this contract ends. Though their ages don't match up, Jim Salisbury and Todd Zolecki believe this deal could be a comparable for Ryan Howard.
SUNDAY, 8:52pm: Danny Knobler clarifies: it's a seven-year extension worth around $140MM, starting with the 2009 season. Regardless, it's a team-friendly deal.
12:18am: According to ESPN's Enquire Rojas, Tigers third baseman Miguel Cabrera is set to sign an eight-year, $153.3MM extension. That's $19.16MM per year for 2009-16. Definitely less than I expected him to sign for. We'll examine the deal more closely when details become available.
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He must like what he's seen so far from the Tigers, he was 10 years, $200 million waiting to happen. Will Matt Holliday get $20 million per year, now that Cabrera is off the board? I'll throw out a figure of 7 yrs/$140 million, because of the fact he'll be in a bidding war.
Posted by: JD | March 23, 2008 at 12:31 AM
He's 24 now and this'll take him to 32. A 10 year deal would obviously take him to 34 and I don't think he'd get as much then.
Not to mention contract inflation and in 6 or 7 years, $20mil per year might not be so much (just think about Pujols' contract now.)
This should give him one more chance to cash in. I'd figure another 6 or 7 year deal for $140-160 in 2016.
Posted by: CubFan81 | March 23, 2008 at 07:47 AM
Yeah. This is a great deal for both sides. 8 years is still nothing to laugh at and I don't think anyone aside from A-Rod is ever going to get 10 years no matter the talent they have. He's still in an arby this year so this guarantees he's a Tiger for about the next 9 years barring any unforseen trades.
I think this will look like a discount in 4-5 years, but not now really. It's still rougly 8/160 and I can't see someone getting 20MM and it being called a discount.
Posted by: Paul | March 23, 2008 at 08:31 AM
I'm wondering how much motivation he has to stay in shape -- seems like he now has $150M reasons to lay on his couch and eat cheetos all winter.
That was always a point in Arod's favor -- he appears to be motivated by the numbers he puts up and establishing his place in baseball history. No one knows what motivates Miguel just yet.
I would bet he puts up huge numbers the first year or two of his contract, then get huge himself over the next few years, and then gets back in shape just in time for his second round of FA ...
Posted by: dproc0219 | March 23, 2008 at 09:32 AM
Eight years is an eternity in baseball. The Tigers are certainly showing a lot of confidence in Cabrera. A lot depends on whether Miggy has turned the page and will take his conditioning seriously. In any event, I think he's destined for 1B or DH duty in a few years. I don't think we'll know until 3 or 4 years into the deal whether it was a smart move by the Tigers or not. They gave up so much to get him that they had to protect the investment, especially since Willis is looking like the much bigger risk of the two acquisitions.
Posted by: MickS | March 23, 2008 at 09:48 AM
As a Huge Cub Fan, I was glad to see him go to the AL, especially to the Tigers were he can torment bridgeport for the next decade or so. Even if Miggy eats himself off the playing field there is still the DH. The guy can just plain hit! After, Pujols and Arod he is probably the next best thing.
Posted by: Jim (Tinley Park) | March 23, 2008 at 11:01 AM
Just like the Santana contract set the table for all of the great pitchers, this sets the table for all the great hitters. Mark Teixera probably won't get the 20+ million I thought he would. Matt Holliday won't get 20+ million per year either. This affects all of the big-time hitters about to reach free-agency. It was a steal for the Tigers by the way.
Posted by: Joe | March 23, 2008 at 11:12 AM
I think this was a steal as well.
When Torri Hunter and Andruw Jones nab $18m/year (albiet for shorter durations) Miggy seems like a bargain.
I just found the years a little interesting. I would think he should have pushed for 2 fewer years. Becoming a FA at 32 isn't as attractive as being a FA at 30.
At a minimum, he should have negotiated an opt out clause at 6 years.
One more note - I still think Tex gets $20m+ year. Miggy wasn't on the open market. I guarantee that if he was a FA his price would have shot up. The two situations (Miggy and Tex) aren't really comparable.
Posted by: bjsguess | March 23, 2008 at 12:56 PM
I agree, I still think Tex gets 20 mil, probably easily. Actually I would bet almost anything I own he gets 20 mil if he hits the open market. And who said Santana set the market? I also think it is reasonable for Sabathia to get a bigger contract this winter, because he also is a free agent, Santana wasnt. And if somebody gives Matt Holliday a 20 million dollar per year contract, they will seriously, seriously regret it.
Posted by: nrmax88 | March 23, 2008 at 01:07 PM
Agree with nrmax88 on all accounts.
Resigning with a club while under contract is a whole different ball of wax than hitting the FA market.
The Rockies would be very smart to move Holliday and let someone else make $140m mistake. Use that money to sign another slugger and see what he puts up in Coors.
Posted by: bjsguess | March 23, 2008 at 05:13 PM
There's absolutely no way Holliday gets $20 mil/year. Look at the way the market for big-ticket FA's has fluctuated in the last 10 years. While the general trend is inflationary, there will be a market correction, just as there was in the aftermath of bad contracts b/t 2000 and 2001.
Holliday will hit FA entering his age 30 season. His career line away from Coors is .273/.333/.448. That is JD Drew-lite. With more than a 2,000 AB sample size, Holliday's OPS is .300 points higher at home. Say it with me now, he is a Coors Field creation.
Posted by: PrahaSMC | March 23, 2008 at 09:14 PM
I don't disagree one bit on the fact that Holliday isn't a $20m/year player. I just happen to think that some team will pay him as if he played his games in some neutral field.
Just a quick point - JD hasn't put up anywhere near the numbers of Holliday and he still got $14m. Some team is going to want to make a splash and those that don't look at splits Holliday appears to be a stud.
Posted by: bjsguess | March 23, 2008 at 09:35 PM
JD hasn't put up anywhere near the numbers of Holliday? I guess maybe not the counting stats because he was always out at least 15-20 games, but his rate stats were certainly in the same neighborhood as Holliday's. In the 3 years before the Boston deal Drew OPSed 1.005, .932, and .891. Holliday was at .973 and 1.012 the last two years.
Posted by: nixa37 | March 23, 2008 at 10:30 PM
Both the contracts are the same. A 7 year 140 million dolllar contract plus the 13 million for this year equals 8 years 153 million.
Posted by: Joe | March 23, 2008 at 11:41 PM
For you incredibly smart guys who know everything about matt holliday and what he would do elsewhere a few numbers to consider. Sure Hollidays road splits sucked(if you consider .301 11hr 55Rbi 53R in 76GP sucking)but he isn't the first pro to record record low road stats in Colorado. Here are a few examples of guys who magically learned to hit on the road after leaving
Mike Lansing
1997 Mon. BA.281 Home.297 Road.268
1998 Col. BA.276 Home.326 Road.225 43 point drop
Jeff Cirillo
1999 Mil. BA.326 Home.354 Road.304
2000 Col. BA.326 Home.403 Road.239 65 point drop
Larry Walker
1994 Mon. BA.322 Home.331 Road.314
1995 Col. BA.306 Home.343 Road.268 46 point drop
Eric Young
1996 Col. BA.324 Home.412 Road.219
1997 Col/LAD BA.280 Home.292 Road.270 a 51 point gain
1998 LAD BA.285 Home.314 Road.256 still in NL west
2000 CHC BA.297 Home.294 Road.299 in Brauns division an .80 road gain over EYs last full Colo season
Juan Pierre
2002 Col. BA.287 Home.328 Road.247
2003 Fla. BA.305 Home.318 Road.294 a 46 point gain
Joe Girardi
1995 Col. BA.262 Home.291 Road.228
1996 NYY. BA.294 Home.304 Road.284 a 56 point road gain
Walt Weiss
1997 Col. BA.270 Home.301 Road.235
1998 Atl. BA.280 Home.254 Road.319 a 84 point gain
If this was a one time thing I would think it didn't mean much but it seems that with very few exceptions players that leave Colorado have lower home but much higher road numbers
Posted by: Pogue009 | March 24, 2008 at 12:03 AM
Pogue009 - where to start?
I think you are suggesting that Holliday's road splits shouldn't be anything to be concerned about because other folks have left Colorado and hit better once leaving. Is that the point?
If so, here are a few things to consider. It looks like you went back 12 years. Out of those 12 years you cite SEVEN cases of this occurrence. That's not all that frequent. I'm sure there are more. However, I'd also guess that for every one case you find I can find 3 cases of people hitting worse once they left.
Then, I look at the names on your list. Not a lot of consistent hitters outside of Larry Walker. Every player experiences fluctuations in numbers. Should we be surprised when a BA drops 30 points? Not really. Especially with players that had a few exceptional years followed by some awful ones. This has nothing to do with park factors.
Third, your post is about what happens to people after they leave Colorado. Unfortunately, 3 out of the 7 examples you cite are dealing with numbers before they got to Colorado.
Anyway, to argue that Colorado doesn't have an impact on offensive statistics is silly. If you really think that Matt Holliday would put up similar numbers in Anaheim or Dodger Stadium then we need to start over at square one.
Posted by: bjsguess | March 24, 2008 at 12:50 AM
To really put Matt Holliday's numbers in perspective consider last year.
Among all sluggers (400+AB's) he posted the 8th highest OPS - a whopping 1.012. He nailed 36 dingers and drove in 137 runs.
If we look at his away numbers we see a guy who posted an 859 OPS. That compares to a 1.157 home OPS. A swing of nearly 300 points.
Put another way, the difference between Home Matt Holliday and Away Matt Holliday is the difference between A-Rod's epic year and that of San Diego Padre slugger, catcher Josh Bard. That's what 300 points in OPS will get you.
Now, 2007 might be considered an anomaly. Literally, anything can happen over the course of a single year. The problem with Holliday is that he has a 300 point gap in his OPS as an AVERAGE over the past 3 years. With the same number of AB's he has managed to hit TWICE as many HR's and have his batting average increase NINETY points. His away SLG is at 466 while his home SLG is at 676. He goes from a 1st ballot HOF at home to a 4th outfielder when he is on the road.
Holliday is a fine hitter. He will be a fine ballplayer if he leaves Colorado. The context of this conversation is whether Holliday is a $20m/year player. The simple fact is that away from home Holliday is a mediocre hitter at best. Move him to the Dodgers and you are looking at a 300 hitter with 20 home runs. Nothing to be ashamed of. Also, not nearly enough production to justify that type of a paycheck.
Posted by: bjsguess | March 24, 2008 at 01:13 AM
"Though their ages don't match up, Jim Salisbury and Todd Zolecki believe this deal could be a comparable for Ryan Howard."
Age isn't the only difference (although it's a huge one). Neither Howard nor Cabrera is a good defender, but Cabrera can at least fake his way through four positions (3B, LF, RF, 1B). Howard is marginal at 1B now and will probably be a DH-only player within a few years.
Posted by: ColonelTom | March 24, 2008 at 09:42 AM
this is amazing for the tigers.
with the fa market expanding, miguel caberara will be worth like 25 million in a few years.
and for Matt Holiday getting 20 million a year, i dont think so.
he is a fine hitter, but it shows that the size of his ball park helps him. A LOT
he would be nice for fenway.
players that should get 20 mil a year are like Pujols, A rod, and tixera.
they play their positionwell and could hit
no diss on matt holiday, but i dont think 20 million he's worth
Posted by: BxSquad | March 24, 2008 at 09:49 AM
Why exactly does Holliday hit 300 points better at home, when the team as a whole hits about 120 points better? Why does his differential dwarf those of any other player on the team, over a span of a few years?
Clearly, it's not just Coors. It's something in how Holliday approaches playing at Coors. If it was simply Coors, we should expect 300 point differential from all the Rockies (or at least all the righties, since the park should impact them all similarly).
Posted by: kosmo @ www.ObservingCasually.com | March 24, 2008 at 01:47 PM
also, re:
"If so, here are a few things to consider. It looks like you went back 12 years. Out of those 12 years you cite SEVEN cases of this occurrence. That's not all that frequent. I'm sure there are more. However, I'd also guess that for every one case you find I can find 3 cases of people hitting worse once they left."
I kind of doubt that you could find 3 times the number of examples that pogue quotes. All the players he mentioned were starters for at least a significant chunk of their time in Colorado. Even finding 21 more examples of starters who left Colorado during this timeframe would be difficult ... much less finding 21 who had their road numbers drop.
Could you find 21 guys who were 50 AB/yr type of guys? Perhaps. But that's really not apples to apples.
But if I'm wrong, go ahead and list the 21 players. I'd love to see it.
Posted by: kosmo @ www.ObservingCasually.com | March 24, 2008 at 02:05 PM
"Why exactly does Holliday hit 300 points better at home, when the team as a whole hits about 120 points better? Why does his differential dwarf those of any other player on the team, over a span of a few years? Clearly, it's not just Coors. It's something in how Holliday approaches playing at Coors."
The best explanation I've heard for this phenomenon is that because breaking balls don't break as sharply at Coors, they look ten times as nasty on the road as they would have if you'd never played at Coors. Hitters get used to flat sliders and curves at Coors, and when they see the real thing elsewhere, they're caught flat-footed and can't make good contact.
Posted by: ColonelTom | March 24, 2008 at 02:42 PM
Tom - yeah, you definitely have a grasp on a main Coors effect, although that has been diminished a bit by the humidor.
Great job of pointing out the negative effect on road hitting (an effect that would not occur if Holliday's home park was a neutral park, resulting in a higher road OPS if he was on a neutral team). Also a good point.
But my main question was why Holliday, in particular, has such a large differential, when his teammates have much smaller ones. Is he that much more of a breaking ball hitter (and thus more affected by the flattening at Coors) - or do pitchers tend to throw him more breaking balls - such that he can wallop them so much better than the other Rockies? That might warrant further investigation, and you might have a point. I think I've seen a site that has this sort of data.
My gut points to him being able to get himself into a great comfort zone at home.
I wonder if there is a study ot home/road splits broken down by marital status ... do guys with familes have a better differential than single guys? I can think of several reason why this might be the case ... getting home at a reasonable hour being a major reason.
Posted by: kosmo @ www.ObservingCasually.com | March 24, 2008 at 03:05 PM
People think this is less money than they expected? That surprises me; this is a huge contract… Cabrera was set for Arb in 2009, that years salary probably would have been somewhere between 13-16M. If you take something between 13-16M/1YR off the top of this deal then you realize that he is infact getting over 20M a year for his FA years. I think the rumored 10YR contract fans were saying it would take was stretching it, but when thinking about what a 7-8 YR deal would look like ~ well, this is actually a higher than I figured it would be…
kosmo99,
“Even finding 21 more examples of starters who left Colorado during this timeframe would be difficult ...”
…What a weird statement… I mean, I could care less and am not going to look up stats or anything because I don’t want to be in that debate ~ but over the last 10 years I think that list looks atleast something like this:
Jamie Carroll (leaving now), Aaron Miles, Luis Gonzalez, Royce Clayton, Jeremy Burnitz, Charles Johnson, Vinny Castilla, Ronnie Belliard, Chris Stynes, Juan Uribe, Jay Payton, Preston Wilson, Larry Walker, Gary Bennett, Brent Butler, Todd Zeile, Juan Pierre, Ben Patrick, Jeff Cirillo, Neifi Perez, Brent Mayne, Mike Lansing, Jeffrey Hammonds, Tom Goodwin, Vinny Castillo (He left twice so…), Dante Bichette, Darryl Hamilton, Elis Burks, Andres Galarraga, Eric Young, Walt Weiss, Quinton McCracken… And there are probably even a couple more ~ this is just a quick list of guys I noticed…
Posted by: darkstar1661 | March 25, 2008 at 02:32 AM
Wow. You have an incredibly broad definition of "starter".
Posted by: kosmo @ www.ObservingCasually.com | March 25, 2008 at 09:15 AM
Went about 400-ish or more PA (or 700-ish or move over 2 years), with a little bit of leeway for Catchers of course. I don’t think that’s very broad at all, and I don’t think there is anyone on the list that doesn’t meat that really… Could be, didn’t spend but a second making it, but…
Posted by: darkstar1661 | March 25, 2008 at 02:08 PM
There are quite a few guys on your list who only spent 1-2 years with the team - hardly a decent sample size. And several were journeymen to begin with - not actual starters. Darryl Hamilton compiled a total of 194 Ab in COL - so his sample of road AB is probably around 100. Odd that he even come up on a list that only took a second to make.
In addition, you re-listed guys that Pogue used in his post. Obviously, they don't fit the criteria of "21 more starters", since they fail to meet the "more" test.
In any case, the true test would be the find 21 starters who had their road stats decline after leaving COL.
In any case, I'm done with this thread, as it's getting to the point of severely diminishing marginal returns.
Too bad that Piggy had to sign a deal with DET so soon, though. He is on my fantasy team, and I was hoping to get contract year performance out of him.
Posted by: kosmo @ www.ObservingCasually.com | March 25, 2008 at 03:34 PM
I show Hamilton having 604 rather straight PA for the Rockies after acquiring in him 98 and before trading him in 99. I show him playing in 51 of 52 games in that 1998 stint and 91 of 103 Games in 1999 ~ that’s 142G of 152 possible Games for the team, 604 PA over that time and obviously someone who was a starter for the club…
…Now, you are correct in saying I didn’t remove the couple guys that are on both of our lists because I didn’t take that time, but that still only lowers it from like 32 to like 28, which is still like 25% more than what you claimed someone wouldn’t be able to find. You are also correct in saying not all of them spent more than a year or so with the club, but never do I see that as being criteria that needed to be met since it was in response to a post giving 2 years worth of numbers to try and prove its point…
Like I said to start, it was just a strange statement and obviously rather untrue but used as if it somehow backed up another extremely questionable assessment of the situation. BJ was providing a solid argument with real facts and logical thinking, the replies he was drawing were more erroneous and probably rooted in fandom though, which left a vague feeling of being correct on the surface but little more than that. Just figured I would infuse some fact on his behalf in the face of said questionable statements, I could care less otherwise…
Posted by: darkstar1661 | March 25, 2008 at 04:28 PM
Thanks Dark for jumping in. I was getting a headache reading through those posts.
Anyway, back to Holliday - Coors (isolated as a park) doesn't account for the entire spread between his home and away stats. Many players experience differences in splits even when their home park tends to have a statistically neutral effect. However, that split isn't usually 300 points in OPS.
Isolated over a single year then you chalk up the discrepancy to an anomaly. Holding the trend steady over 3 years and you have something else all together.
Point is - if he can post an OPS of 1000 outside of Coors for another team then yes, he is a $20m player. If he ends up posting a more reasonable 900 OPS then he is more likely to find work at $12-15m/year.
Posted by: bjsguess | March 25, 2008 at 05:13 PM
Darkstar - are you crazy about this statement?
"BJ was providing a solid argument with real facts and logical thinking"
All he did was point out Holliday's home/road splits. How is that logical thinking? He didn't delve into the possible causes, not did he provide ANY counter examples to Pogue. He claimed he could, but never did. All he (and you) did were make vague and questionable statements.
Whatever ...
Posted by: kosmo @ www.ObservingCasually.com | March 25, 2008 at 08:08 PM
Humm, what?
Look, I’m not sure what your point is in this conversation, but I guess its that A) Holliday is worth 20M/YR to whatever big-market team that wants to pay him that and B) he will become a better road hitter when he leaves the Rockies (that’s what that other guy was apparently arguing afterall, and you were apparently trying to back him up). To try to prove this, that guy gave a couple random names, a couple random years BA stats with overall minor hitters provided ~ and you tried to back it up as solid info.
Now, BJ questioned this, pointing to more than a few of the many flaws in the stats provided. He also gave a post describing the difference between the road and home numbers for Holliday, and that it isnt a one-time occurrence. He gave approximately what his numbers would look like in another park and he told you what he felt it would probably be signed to if not for the inflated Colorado line being added into his lines. He’s using real facts (you know, the actual lines Holliday has put up) and logical thinking (you know, like he would still be a good hitter in another park, just not near 20M/YR good).
But how about we just end this complete real fast, lets just give the complete stat lines to take any question out of it:
MH Car Home ~ .364/.425/.662/1.087
MH Car Road ~ .273/.333/.448/.781
(Difference of .306 OPS from Home to Road)
Year by Year:
07 Home ~ .376/.435/.722/1.157
07 Road ~ .301/.374/.485/.860
07 NL avg ~ .266/.334/.423/.757
(.297 difference on H/R)
06 Home ~ .373/.440/.692/1.132
06 Road ~ .280/.333/.485/.818
06 NL avg ~ .265/.334/.427/.761
(.314 Difference on H/R)
05 Home ~ .357/.409/.593/1.002
05 Road ~ .256/.313/.416/.729
05 NL avg ~ .262/.330/.414/.744
(.273 Difference on H/R)
04 Home ~ .338/.406/.603/1.009
04 Road ~ .240/.287/.367/.654
04 Nl avg ~ .263/.333/.423/756
(.355 difference on H/R)
Do you see a pattern here?
Now, lets look at the last couple years with some of the counting stats added in:
07 Home ~ .376/.435/.722/1.157 ~ 28 2B, 5 3B, 25 HR, 82 RBI over 363 PA
07 Road ~ .301/.374/.485/.860 ~~ 22 2B, 1 3B, 11 HR, 55 RBI over 350 PA
06 Home ~ .373/.440/.692/1.132 ~ 24 2B, 2 3B, 22 HR, 78 RBI over 334 PA
06 Road ~ .280/.333/.485/.818 ~~ 21 2B, 3 3B, 12 HR, 36 RBI over 333 PA
Lastly for fun, lets factor those road lines together real fast and come up with one full seasons worth of games…
.290/350/485/.835-ish & 43 2B, 4 3B, 23 HR, 91 RBI
~ would you pay 20M/YR for that? It is good, yeah. But is it 20M/YR good? That’s BJs point…
Now, the idea is that maybe he will become a better hitter elseware once he leaves. Ok, well even if he does, what does that bring us up to; maybe something like his 2004 line? Would you pay 20M/YR for 8 years of his 2004 .310/.360/.500/.860-ish line? Manny averages about .300/.390/.600/.990 to make his 20M/YR. Miguel Cabrera has averaged about .320/.400/.560/.960 to make his 20M/YR. Arod is about .300/.400/.600/1.000 for his mega millions… Andrew Jones who averages about .260/.350/.480/.830 (which is a near perfect comparison to that Holliday Road line really) and plays GG CF ~ but he hasn’t made more than 14M yet and will make about 18M the next two years on what almost everyone calls a rather horrible contract. Get it yet?
Now, I will never say that Holliday is a bad hitter in any way, and I actually like him a lot. But to act like he isnt greatly benefiting because of his home park is foolish. Well, when we take that benefit away, he is about like Andrew Jones good (just less HR and more 2B power) ~ that’s really, really good, but not top-5 elite in the game good and not deserving of 20M/YR… He might possibly get it, but it wont be because he deserves it based off those road splits ~ and if its a team in a neutral park giving it to him, they will probably be in for a horrible awakening call…
That’s the real point, and that’s what BJ has been trying to say here. Ideally this now ends it…
Posted by: darkstar1661 | March 26, 2008 at 12:02 AM
BTW, just wanted to mention was right about the 09 Arb being factored in and that Miguel will infact be making 20+M/YR over his FA years. Specifically, it breaks down like this from that link:
15M (2009), 20M (2010), 20M (2011), 21M (2012), 21M (2013), 22M (2014), 22M (2015).
All the speculation that it would take 20+M was correct, now we will just have to wait and see if it was a smart move on the Tigers part…
Posted by: darkstar1661 | March 26, 2008 at 12:06 AM
Holy crap. What "logic" like that, the discussion definitely ends here. You also managed to read a lot of things into my comments that I didn't actually say. Lol. I'll agree to disagree. Have a good day.
Posted by: kosmo @ www.ObservingCasually.com | March 26, 2008 at 08:20 AM
What do we agree to disagree on? The fact that you made a couple rather blatantly incorrect statements, or the fact that Holliday is better in Col than he is on the Road?
Re-reading your posts its impossible to really figure out what you are saying to begin with because you don’t really say anything. You do try to back up an extremely questionable and almost completely immaterial post (which would lead on to believe you agree with his stance), and of course give your incorrect statements like “not 21 starters” and “Hamilton wasn’t a starter”. Otherwise, this is the only thing I see you posted that was never addressed by anyone:
“Clearly, it's not just Coors. It's something in how Holliday approaches playing at Coors. If it was simply Coors, we should expect 300 point differential from all the Rockies (or at least all the righties, since the park should impact them all similarly).”
…But that too is extremely questionable and I’m a tad surprised by it. I mean, would you expect Albert Pujols and Adam Kennedy to see the same type of OBP/SLG increase if they both went to Colorado? Lets rephrase ~ wouldn’t you expect Pujols, an extremely powerful hitter, to see a higher boost from the power inflation than a guy like Kennedy who has next to no power to begin with? Kennedy is not going to be able to capitalize off of the power boost because he cant hit it out of the infield 75% of the time, Pujols pounds the ball though, and will see a huge impact to the balls he puts in play. You cant see a park-factor and just instantly expect everyone to be affected the same, Holliday being a powerful guy sees many of his long-fly outs and 2B turn into HR in Col. The result is a gigantic increase to his SLG, which other hitters don’t generally see. The OBP is higher because he is making fewer outs on those FBs or hard liners + the general increase everyone seems to see from having more balls in play falling in for hits.
Think about Kaz, who became Chase Utley at Coors (.350/.400/.490 to be exact) but cant reach Juan Pierre level everywhere else (generally about .250/.300/.350) He saw upward of 200 points in OPS increase, and if he had any power it would have been even higher… Give Kaz like 5 more HR, and you are looking at a 300 OPS increase from his away to Coors play…
…But I’m a tad disappointed at myself for explaining this to someone who seems more intent on fighting than finding a point or the actual truth…
Posted by: darkstar1661 | March 26, 2008 at 03:42 PM