Stark's Latest: Roberts, Fuentes, Lofton

(cubs fan here) --- if the cubs don't get roberts, then this will be viewed as perhaps the most frustrating off season in recent memory. i cannot believe the Os are still dragging this out. what could they possibly find out with scouts that they don't already know! come on now. this isn't 1920... the Os have hundreds of hours of videotape, and all the stats they could want on the players they would want for Roberts... whats the deal.

ok, my therapy is done for the night.

keep 'em coming Tim.

Thames for Heilman... ELL OH ELL

13 minutes into a Roberts thread and there aren't 200 posts? Is this a Chicago holiday?

Why not Thames for Yates and Ring of the Braves? The Braves have a surplus of bullpen arms, many out of options, and need a back up 1b for Teixeria.

I would have swonr the O's told them who they wanted. But Chicago declined to deal anyone worth getting.

Sworn*
Bad spelling plus typekey logging me out after every post... its not my night lol

Why don't the Tigers just bite the bullet and trade Porcello and Cale Lorg for Huston street ?

hahaha, yah, it's true, i already know why, but still !!!

Street would be pretty good in Detroit and im sure Beane would throw in another Relief arm in needed. Just late night dreaming

the os want to completely rob everyones farm system of prospects, which is why i think the cubs make a great trading partner. heres to getting this trade done....soon. at least with santana he was the best pitcher in baseball. this guys a freaking second baseman.

Dreamin' is right, Ballz! Porcello?!! Not going anywhere...for anyone.

I'm sick and I really don't have the energy for this tonight, but I'm a little sick of the media's constant blaming of Baltimore for dragging things out. Granted, the same thing happened with Bedard, but they're just doing their due dilligence and XD23 makes a solid point: this thing would be done if the Cubs offered anything McPhail HAS asked for.

...and round and round we go. I don't care. I'm sick of this crap. I hate the Cubs AND the Orioles right now. Fact is, the O's DO drag their friggin' feet on every deal- I can't defend that any longer. And the Cubs...they don't seem to want to budge on anything, figuring the team that has the greater 'power' in the deal (I don't want an argument) will- contrary to any logic- be the one to fold. IT AIN'T HAPPENING!

Let's quit arguing over Roberts' value vs. DeRosa and who's going to be dealt and what else will be thrown into the deal... It's absolutely pointless and you all KNOW I've been one of the more vocal O's fans in terms of this thing. But the Cubs aren't going to give up Ceda or Colvin and the O's aren't going to do the deal without them so... Let's just shake hands and go our separate ways and maybe we'll meet again closer to the trade deadline.

I'll be watching DeRosa closely this year and rooting for the Cubs. The person I feel the worst for is Roberts, who now has to waste another year of his prime with a God-awful ball club. Too bad.

I'm going to puke...and this time, it's not the flu that's kicking my ass. Ugh. So weak.

BTW, JoelCards- what would you say would be fair value for Roberts? Murton, Marshall and a bag of nail clippings? Eat poo (LOL- sorry, I'm cranky...being sick sucks)

...and poo is just a funny word.

Might be able to include the D-backs' Brandon Medders or Dustin Nippert in the list of possible relievers who may be available soon...both are out of options and it appears one of them will get squeezed when the Unit is ready to go. Medders is having a better spring, but we'll see who goes.

Oh, and when I wrote, 'IT AIN'T HAPPENING,' I was talking about the deal in general...though it also applies to the O's caving in and taking a lesser deal. The point, however, is that I'm now convinced that this thing is DOA. Whatever. I'm done with all this sh*$. The O's may be asking for too much but...that's the price. The Cubs aren't offering enough. Can't really blame them. It's a classic standoff but no one's going to back down...and both are going to get shot down (to keep with my standoff metaphor). Made too much sense to actually happen!

Folks can criticize the Os for dragging their feet on things (and maybe they do), but, all I care about is results. So far, based on early returns of deals, the Os dragging their feet has had very nice results. If that's what's helping the Os in the trades, then I say keep it going. And I think every fan of any team can understand that (and may want their own team to do the same).

Being slow and deliberate has had the effect of ramping up the urgency level for the Os' trade partner. Every Os trade this offseason has had their trade partner eventually offering significantly more than original rumors. Remember that original Roberts rumors was for Cedeno, Gallagher, and Murton. Today, Murton's been possibly swapped out for more than one promising prospect.

Also, there is no way on Earth Jamie Walker and/or Chad Bradford are due to be traded right now. The Os are building the team around developing the young pitching. That means finding bullpen anchors and up-the-middle defense to help the pitching performances stand up. Those guys might be on their way out later but that's not going to be this season.

basemonkey- I was moving toward making the same point, but I gave up. I just don't care anymore. This crap keeps going around and around. I'm just going to wait until the deal's done and then I'll discuss (OK, I'll probably be back fighting tooth and nail tomorrow; making the same points I've been making for weeks, but that's my story and I'm sticking to it).

As far as Walker and Bradford, I see your point, but if the price is right, I think McPhail would jump. Or maybe I just hope he would. If you're going to rebuild, go all the way in and get as many interesting prospects you can (though I wonder how what kind of kids Bradford or Walker could net on their own; maybe in a package).

Wake me up when Roberts is wearing blue.

RPs have more value in trades during the season. No one is going to trade a top prospect for an RP in the offseason unless he is a closer, and it still depends on the closer. But, if a team is at midseason and looking to be very close to winning the pennant and maybe more, a quality RP here or there can be an important piece worth going for.

I think everything we hear about the Orioles trading Sherrill, Bradford, and/or Walker right now is more wishful thinking by fans who want them for their own team. Sure, if a team offers an elite 20-23 yr old prospect for any of Sherrill, Bradford, or Walker, then I'd take it, but seriously, that's not going to happen right now. Making ourselves available for an unlikely trade offer is not keeping your options open.

basemonkey- agreed. I added that caveat to my post. Still, you didn't really address the proposal I made including Sherrill. I think it fits the bill (20-23 year old prospect...though not for Sherrill alone and not JUST that one prospect). Look at my above proposal and then tell me if you think the O's would deal one of their RPs. Reds fans seem to think it sounds pretty close and as an O's fan, I could get down with it...

I hate ESPN Insider.

Mile,

"Wake me up when Roberts is wearing blue."

Wake up wake up... I just read at the news stand a report from the National Inquirer that Roberts sleeps in Thomas the
Tank Engine pajamas...

Just thought you should know he is wearing blue.

:-)

Sorry. I have a 3 year old who wanted waffles with syrup and thomas the tank engine video... at 4 in the freaking morning...

Since the cubs only have 1 lefty in the pen at the moment( not counting Marshall who would be a long man or Cotts who should start in AAA ) - shouldn't they go after Fuentes? We seem to have lots of upside young arms for them to pick from - maybe send 2 and get spilborgs as well

From everything I've read lately, the O's haven't even told the Cubs who they want.

If I was Hendry I would put an offer on the table and give them 24 hours to "take it or leave it".

It's not the end of the world if we don't get Roberts. DeRosa is Roberts without the stolen bases. We can live with Theriot leading off for now. It's time to set the starting lineup.

I hope we never deal with the AngelO's again.

The deal will get done. Hendry and MacFAIL have a lot more patience than you guys, because they're not in the dark, like you. I'm sure they are waiting on something (Cedeno's hamstring, see another Gallagher start? Who knows.) Still plenty of time. The best thing is, if the deal doesn't get done, we're fine. Theriot will do OK at leadoff. Or the Cubs trade for someone else.

Marquis for Crisp. Marquis is pitching great, and was 12-9 last year for an 85-win team. That's not so bad!

Basemonkey, you called the O’s strategy of flipping Sherrill for prospects from the very beginning – nice insight. I agree that it’s the strategy that makes most sense. His value will much higher in midseason, particularly if he shows he can close games consistently. They’d be silly to deal him now and sell low.

*Disclaimer* This is completely fictitious but if the Cubs are going to trade 1/2 of their top prospects, I would much rather them trade all their top prospects and do the deal below.

Ceda + Gallagher + Veal + Colvin = B. Roberts

Ceda + Gallagher + Veal + Colvin + Donaldson + Vitters = H. Ramirez

I'm just saying...what the Cubs would be giving up should only be given up for a guy that is in his mid 20's, not his early 30's; and plays a position they actually need to fill, not a position they think they need to fill. Again, I dont actually think this would eve happen, this was just for comparison purposes.

integr = good example why cubs fan aren't liked here

Thanks, crunchy. But I can't take credit for that kind of insight. It's really just the garden variety "Smart Move." Any baseball fan who has seen baseball for a few decades knows the drill. It's the best possible scenario for trading RPs. Offhand I can remember several times in a row Oakland, as they were emerging from their long down years, they developed and dealt several closers/setup men in a row.

This also influences my opinion of Ceda. In my opinion, quality RPs are the cheapest and quickest to develop (i.e. 2 pitches, usually a fastball and "out" pitch, and, at least 1 inning of stamina). Therefore they are also the easiest to convert into value in midseason trades when contenders are 80 games away from a pennant. Also, take into consideration that RPs who maintain more than a 3 year peak are a few times per generation. Ceda might be a very good exciting player but if he's likely to be an RP, then his best value to the Cubs might be in converting back to high potential talent in other scarcer areas.

If anyone would offer top rotation potential lower level SPs right now for Sherrill, I'd do it. My guess though is that he's not worth that right now. Though to a team who is 81+ games away from the WS, then it's worth it.

"integr = good example why cubs fan aren't liked here"

Game 555 who made you spokesman for "here"?

I'm "here" and I LOVE ALL cubs "fan"'s :)

Actually Crunchy, I think it was my idea from the Start about Sherrill. I still believe it too.

Roberts and Sherrill will be wearing Cubbie blue

I'm not buying the BS that the Orioles haven't told the Cubs what players they want. It really doesn't make any sense.

Much more plausible is that the Orioles HAVE told the Cubs who they want, but Hendry claimed certain players were "off limits".

I can see the Orioles asking for Gallagher, Colvin, Ceda and a 4th only to be told that Ceda and Colvin are off limits.

THAT is negotiation and it doesn't happen over night. You can blame the Orioles for wanting so much or you can blame the Cubs for not offering enough. But in the end, if the Cubs want Roberts badly enough and if the Orioles are honest about moving him, it WILL get done.

My opinion? Any deal will have Ceda or Colvin in it or no dice.

Actually, the speculation that the O’s are the ones who have yet to move makes the most sense. Speaking from someone who’s had the “pleasure” of having McPhail as my team’s GM; this is typical M.O. He's not as shrewd as people think he is. He’s so worried about what the press is going to say about his deals that he wrings his hands and is unable to get anything done. It’s paralysis by analysis. In Chicago, it meant letting more than a couple opportunities go by. The problem is McPhail’s ego can’t afford to make a deal that doesn’t look good on paper and in the public’s eye. He’s the only GM I know that references BA’s prospects list when he makes a deal. He’s a fraud. McPhail sitting and stewing about a trade fits the pattern he’s had since his days with the Cubs.

DBird--
Any trade that involves 3 of Gallagher/Ceda/Colvin/Veal is more then what Baltimore got for Bedard.

If I were the GM, I would do Colvin and one other or I would even Consider Gallagher/Ceda/Veal/Cedeno for Roberts and Sherrill. That is IMO. You may disagree, but I want to get this over with. This would give the Cubs one of the best benches, and top 4 N.L. lineup. A very quality Pitching staff. And one of the best defenses in all of baseball. Lets get this done NOW!

I wouldnt actually "DO" Colvin and one other, but I would trade them.

uww1, you’ve been the first about the Cubs acquiring Sherrill from day one. I was referring to Basemonkey’s theory that the Orioles would make Sherill a closer to increase his value then trade him at the deadline. I agree with basemonkey that this makes sense. I don’t think Sherrill is coming to the Cubs. But like I said before, if you prove me wrong, uww1 – and I hope you do because Sherill would be a nice addition – then I’ll be the first to give you full credit! ;)

"Marlins looking for at Starter"

Would they trade Ramirez now? If they got the right deal?

Ceda + Gallagher + Veal + Colvin + Donaldson + Marquis (contract paid for)

HAHAHA yes I know but also what about Fuentes from Colorado? He could be a good asset. They want a good prospect. Who? Could we get him?

uww1- I don't think the Fish are looking to move Hanley now that they've got a new ballpark planned. Not saying it's impossible, but it's not even being whispered about (except on this site :)) Crunchy beat me to the Sherrill thing and I agree he's unlikely to be involved in the Roberts deal. It makes sense, don't get me wrong, but the Cubs are hesitant to give up top prospects and I think McPhail is trying to up dude's value as a closer...like basemonkey said. Now, if Hendry wanted to pay full closer price...(not happening)

Delaware Bird- I agree that any deal minus Ceda or Colvin is, as you put it 'no dice.' THAT'S WHY I don't think it's going to get done. The Cubs aren't looking to move those guys. I'm not saying it's a good thing or a bad thing. It just IS (IMHO)!

Crunchy- I get it. You're not a big McPhail fan. Then again, you'll probably be saying the same thing about Hendry in a couple years but that's neither here nor there.

Good news: he's not your GM anymore! And for the most part, O's fans are pretty happy about what he's done so far, so...

Do you not think Hendry has a big ego? Men in power always have big egos; you don't reach the top being a mousy little b*&#$. And it seems to me that you'd want a GM with a big ego; he'll be that much more motivated to maintain it: smart moves, top prospects, etc. I agree that the whole 'quoting BA' thing is pretty lame, but whadyagondo, eh? (sorry, flashed back to Donnie Brasco for a second for some reason) At least that means he's going after the best...and he's not going to let a guy of Roberts' caliber go without getting a nice haul.

In fact, wouldn't that strengthen the argument that he's not going to budge on Ceda/Colvin (I think we've reached the point where Pie staying in Chicago is implied)? Ah, who the hell cares?! Like I said last night- This thing is DEAD for now. See ya at midseason.

uww1- Fuentes would cost you guys, but it seems like a good fit.

Also, I disagree with your characterization of a Colvin/Ceda, Gallagher, Veal, Cedeno offer being 'more than (we) got for Bedard.' It's a significant offer, to be certain- probably more than what Roberts is 'worth,' but I'd still say the Bedard deal was a little better. Jones has star potential and is MLB ready, so the distance from where he is and his ceiling isn't so far to make the jump anywhere near as improbable as it is with lower level prospects. Compare that with Gallagher, the closest of the group we're talking about... He sounds like he'll be a solid mid-to-back of the rotation, Jon Lieber-esque hurler but that ain't a star. He'll have a couple good years, I hope, but expectations are nowhere near those for Jones. BA said Jones would've been around #11 had he been eligible this year. Gallagher was late 80's/early 90's I think.

Similarly, Tillman and Colvin are mid-level (Tillman will start '08 at AA, not sure about Colvin- AAA?) kids with longshot star potential, but most sources have Tillman ranked higher and, more importantly, his scouting write ups are glowing, across the board (during the Bedard deal, I read a couple of scouts reports who said he'd be the gem of the deal- a future ace- but that's not the consensus). Colvin is far more polarizing and, as a general rule, top pitching prospects have greater value. The questions surrounding him pose serious concerns. Not that there isn't a lot to like.

Ceda, as a pitcher, compares more favorably, though Tillman is consistently ranked well above Ceda when you look at the lists (not that that is the end all, be all) and, as a starting pitcher, again holds greater value.

Butler/Veal makes for an interesting debate. Based on '07 performance, you gotta go with Butler, but those still tantalized by Veal's awesome '06 would easily rank Veal over Butler. In general, I think Veal would 'list' higher than Butler at the moment, but both are power southpaws with intriguing secondaries (particularly curves) and No. 2/3 ceilings (to be fair, if you pieced together a median from all of the prospect books and whatnot, I think Veal's ceiling would come out as a 2, while Butler a 3, but I've seen both for both guys).

It really depends on Veal's health, which I can't really speak about with any authority. Someone said he had a torn labrum, in which case, I'd easily rank Butler ahead of him, but based on what I've read in BA and elsewhere I kinda doubt it's that serious. Let's say it's Veal by a nose.

Cedeno/Mickolio is close, no matter what Cubs fans want to say. Mickolio is built like a brick s@*%house and throws smoke and a brutal slider and should help out in middle relief fairly soon. Cedeno has a little higher upside, but seems...how should I say this...stupid. Furthermore, he hasn't impressed in any of his MLB call-ups. He projects more as a utility man than a starter (though that's what he'd be on the O's...God we suck). I, personally, would rather have Mickolio, but I'd be willing to call it a draw.

If it were just that, I'd take the Bedard deal. The bottom two are close and, even if I gave the Cubs the edge, they're not what we were REALLY after. The top two are the studs of the deal and IMHO, the Mariners' guys have far more upside- star potential- while the Cubs kids look like solid to above average contributors. Don't get me wrong, we need those too, and Colvin has a shot at making the leap, but...well, I think I made my case.

And that was without Sherrill, who we're turning into a closer and will probably flip for more prospects. Probably one or two pretty good ones, too! Sorry uww, this one ain't even close...

(long enough for ya?)

uww1,
You are officially out of your mind. An obvious die hard Cubs fan in love with Cubs prospects. I respect that. But to claim that 3 of Gallagher, Ceda, Colvin, Veal is more than the Bedard return is beyond ridiculous and into the world of fairy tales.

Adam Jones is currently leaps and bounds better than Colvin. Without question.

Tillman is cleary a better prospect than Gallagher (although Gallagher is closer to the majors and more likely to be a contributor).

Sherill actually pitches in a major league bullpen with success. Ceda has had success at single A.

Comparing Veal to Mickolio, the stats lean towards Mickolio by a landslide.

Plus the Orioles got LHP Tony Butler from the Mariners in the Bedard trade.

How funny is it that MacPhail can trade Tejada without issue, trade Bedard before spring training began, but it is all his fault that Roberts isn't a Cub? Speculate all you want, none of us KNOW the truth. Seems like the man can do his job and knows what he wants.

Gallagher, Colvin, Ceda/Veal, and Patterson for Roberts, Payton seems about right.

I just heard Steve Stone on the radio. He was asked about the Roberts trade taking so long. He said he didn't know what the hold up was because he thinks that the offers he has seen are fair.

He went on to say that he would not over pay for Roberts. He specifically said he would not include guys like Ceda, Colvin or Samardzija, although I have never heard Samardzija mentioned. He seemed to feel the offer of Gallagher, Cedeno, Veal and Patterson was fair.

He did say something that would upset you O's fans. When talking about not over paying he said, "Roberts is a very good player, but we're not talking about a great player here.

Donald Veal
Top Comparables Chris Capuano, Mathew Maloney, Tom Gorzelanny, Ed Yarnall
2008:
That Veal is the best pitching prospect the Cubs have is irrefutable evidence that their farm system is no longer the pitching factory it once was. He failed to take a step forward last year, particularly in terms of his command. The silver lining is that there’s a school of thought that says big lefties develop slowly, with top PECOTA comparable Chris Capuano being one of the better examples

Sean Gallagher
Top Comparables Jason Bere, Hayden Penn, Albie Lopez, Grant Roberts
2008:
Gallagher will be just 22 next season and already possesses an average fastball and breaking pitch, but both PECOTA and scouts are dubious about how much better he’s likely to get. Gallagher’s command isn’t good, and physically he’s stocky and perhaps somewhat overbuilt. Deeper down on his PECOTA comparables list are a couple of encouraging names such as Jason Schmidt’s, but for the most part its just more guys like Bere, Lopez, and Roberts, who often proved frustrating to their employers.

Joe Ceda
Top Comparables Shane Lindsay, Nick Neugebauer, Manny Acosta, Anibal Sanchez
2008:
Ceda is raw and doesn’t throw a lot of strikes, but his combination of youth, size and velocity is rare, and he was touching 98 mph on the radar gun by the end of the year at Peoria. The Cubs see him as a relief pitcher, a role that can sometimes give pitchers with command problems a bit of a break, and his ceiling is that of a big-league closer.

Tyler Colvin
Top Comparables Nic Jackson, Terrence Long, Jacque Jones, Aaron Rowand
2008:
At this stage of development, Colvin has a couple of significant holes in his swing; anytime your strikeout-to-walk ratio looks like Tom Brady’s touchdown-to-interception ratio, that’s bad news. While the power and speed tools are there, they’re not off the charts. Colvin’s upside is being a .280/.320/.500-type of hitter; that’s valuable in center field, but less so in an outfield corner, so his defensive progress is the key. Although our translations suggest Colvin took quite well to center last year, the scouting reports were mixed.

McPhail took forever to finish the Bedard deal. You obviously need more time to get to know the guy and his m.o. It's speculating yes, that it's the O's dragging their feet again. But when the pattern fits...

And Mickolio isn't even considered among the top 150 prospects in the game whereas Veal did get votes from half of the BA staff as a top 150 guy (including one as high as 87 --Mickolio and Butler got NO votes for the top 150). I think there's been a lot of post-trade PR (something McPhail is good at) going on in Baltimore about how highly rated those guys really are. They're good arms but their prospect status isn't even middle ground yet. It could be, but they have a long way to go before they get there.

I didn’t like McPhail even when he was still in Chicago. In fact, I don’t know anyone who wasn’t happy the day he resigned. Give it a cuppa, too-tree years (a little Chicago accent for ya ;) and see if you still like him. And I do agree that you have to have a big ego to be a GM but McPhail is too worried about LOOKING good in my opinion. To be fair, his plan was to stockpile arms in the minor league system – and they all seemingly got hurt. Every prospect from Kerry Wood to Bobby Brownlie seemed to spend more time in the trainer’s room than on the field developing skills. And he is still much better than past GM’s Ed Lynch and Jim Frey (quite possibly the two worst GM’s in the history of the universe.) But when it came to making trades, he wound up spending a lot more time analyzing them than actually doing them.

Thanks for cutting and pasting from the Baseball Prospectus, dark. Why don't you cut and paste what they wrote about Marte, Choo, Laffey, etc.? Now that's good stuff.

"Comparing Veal to Mickolio, the stats lean towards Mickolio by a landslide."

Veal is the better prospect by a "landslide"...I don't know what you are smoking.

"How funny is it that MacPhail can trade Tejada without issue, trade Bedard before spring training began, but it is all his fault that Roberts isn't a Cub?"

Yeah, that Bedard trade went so smoothly, I can't believe anyone thinks McFailure is the one holding this up!

sweetswing- my response to your post (and I know I'm going to regret this :))- ummm...who's Steve Stone? Is he some Cubs announcer or something? Please forgive me, but I live in Maryland, so...

If he is a Cubs announcer (or something along those lines) I think you know what I'd say...

Steve Stone won a Cy Young for Baltimore in 1980. He's a Cubs and Sox announcer today.

“Thanks for cutting and pasting from the Baseball Prospectus, dark. Why don't you cut and paste what they wrote about Marte, Choo, Laffey, etc.? Now that's good stuff.”

…In a thread talking about these specific players, wouldn’t it be proper to show some type of evaluations on said players? But you apparently have a problem with actual evaluations being provided and want to try and make a point by implying something completely unrelated and irrelevant to the situation? Hehehe, ok… well thanks for showing your issues again Crunchy!

Damn it, Jim! Er- Crunchy. I SAID that Veal was listed higher by most sources and was comparing him to Butler; never Mickolio, who doesn't compare well as both a middle relief prospect and, basically, a throw-in (I don't think he's a particularly good prospect, nor have I ever said he was. He's OK at best and hardly counts as the exciting part of that deal...sorta like Cedeno/Patterson).

So...let me try this again. In terms of Veal/Butler, Veal probably gets the nod for now (assuming the labrum thing isn't true), but Butler could easily surpass him as soon as this year with continued progress and if Veal continues to stagnate (or decline!). Veal had a tough year in '07 and could be poised to bounce back. In a perfect world (for Cubs fans), the Cubs hang on to him and he rockets back up the charts thanks to his electric arm and a revival of that famous curve. That way, the Cubs can hold him up as a top prospect and get the value associated with top prospects in return. For now, his value is largely tied to an '07 that was absolutely AWFUL! He still ranks higher than Butler...now...but at this point, it's close and Butler has a similarly high upside due to age and stuff (Scout.com, for instance, calls him a future No. 2; BA a No. 3, but- and I'm guessing a little here- I'd bet they'd move him up to a 2 if he can develop an above average change...hardly an impossibility). Veal's superiority over Butler is tenuous at best and certainly isn't enough to say that that, everything else considered, the Roberts proposal would be better than the Bedard return.

BP also thinks that Marmol should keep his great curveball down in the zone. That's nice, but he doesn't HAVE a curveball. He throws a great slider. I know it's your bible, dark -- but that book is flawed.

And since you're already resorting to ad hominem, there isn't any need for me to continue this debate.

milehigh, the Veal post was intended for delaware bird. But you're right in reference to Butler. There's no reason he can't have a great year and surpass Veal. He just needs to prove himself. He's got a great arm.

Dear God...what have I done (the horror...the hor--ror)

Thanks, Crunch! Let's grab a milkshake! (LOL- sorry, the cold/flu meds have me a bit goofy)

Crunchy,
Who cares when the Bedard trade got done? To throw that out there is silliness. It got done before spring training. That's all that mattered. What really would have been gained had the trade been consumated 2 months earlier????? That is just a weak shot at MacPhail.

Compare Veal to Mickolio.
Both are 23.
Both pitched last year at AA.
Veal: ERA=4.97, IP=130, H=126, K=131, BB=73
Mickolio: ERA=2.71, IP=54, H=43, K=55, BB=22

Veal had more innings, but Mickolio's ERA is vastly better.
Mickolio better H/IP.
Even K/IP.
Mickolio better BB/IP.

As I said, by stats (one year), Mickolio is clearly superior to Veal. That being said, I have never seen either pitch and am eager to see what both do this year. Veal needs significant improvement to keep 'prospect' status this year. Mickolio only needs to repeat what he did last year.

Aduncaroo,
Your name calling of MacPhail shows a lack of any impartiality in judgement. So MacPhail would be a better GM if the Bedard trade went faster? How???? Why????

As per Butler? He's a nice arm. Left handed, 20 years old, and a 3rd round draft pick from 06. I wouldn't bet the house on him, but his stats do show talent.

Crunchy ~ Either find a point or just don’t respond to things. You never had a point in trying to call me out, so you want to instead do your runaround off-topic irrelevant bitch crap. You claim there is a debate, but there is no debate here to be had ~ youre just trying to whine because someone posted evaluations I guess. Its far from my Bible, I next to never even use the site (whatever that had to do with anything anyway) ~ but you try and dismiss them because you don’t want to believe what they said or it doesn’t suit your best interests in the conversation? And I’m “ad hominem” because you posted to me without a reason, point or relevant comment? If anything, both your posts are nothing but “ad hominem” at its absolute pitiful height. Really, whatever dude… like I said, just keep showing your issues…

Get a room!

And Delaware Bird- I dig what you're saying, but Mickolio is a RP while Veal is a starter. Also, go back to '06. As bad as Veal was last year, he was THAT good the year before. It IS a 'what have you done for me lately' world, but there's a reason Veal is still ranked well ahead of Mickolio on every prospect list...for now.

You're right... With another bad year, Veal may not be considered a prospect at all and Mickolio, if he can impress the scouts more, can jump up. Who knows? I'm just saying... Oh, and I'm an O's fan, I just want to be accurate.

Glad to see you back, milehigh. I think Veal is a boom or bust guy. No question about it. I’m not sure I’d write him off if he doesn’t have a great year. If he can show some improvement there is still hope for him to reach his ceiling. Big lefties, for whatever reason, sometimes take a while to develop. Now if he has another awful year – that’s a different story. I think they’ll turn him into a reliever where he can concentrate on being a two pitch guy – and that, of course, would lessen his status as a prospect.

Great article on Geovanny Soto and catching prospects.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7254&sessionstatus=notloggedin&mode=login

Funny how Dark disses Soto all the time but his favorite site, which he quotes as accurate, says he is the best catching prospect in baseball. Nice.

Veal is a better prospect, not because of stats, but because of ceilings. Stats aren't always what would matter, or else Gallagher would be as good as Adam Miller. Not to mention if you are going to look at stats, at least look for more than one year and at least don't compare a reliver to a pitcher. Please.

The Bedard offer was better, but its not as far as you O's fans are thinking. I think Milehigh's assesement was actually pretty accurate. I feel a little more strongly about a couple of the Cubs guys, but I can accept that its at least close. I think that Colvin gets knocked for some reason like he didn't play center well, but all the stats and analysis seem to indicate that he did very well at it. If Pie doesn't work, he could be up by 09. There is no way you trade that guy right now, especially when it seems like even everyone here is conceding that McPhail values Ceda at least as much, and the evidence we have supports that.

By the way...lets be fair and see what BP projects as Jones and Tillman's top Comparables.

Jones
1. Steve Hosey
2. Chet Lemon
3. Larry Hisle
4. Jack Clark

Tillman
1. Kris Honel
2. Chris Seelbach
3. Gaby Hernandez
4. Carlos Carrasco

Man that list is making the Cubs offer look tremendous. Not to mention Dark, you forgot to mention Colvin's #7 comp, a guy named Granderson.

Now I'm still not saying its better, but Crunch is right about you Dark. You continue to show your Cubs bias by posting anything you can to make them, their players, and their fans look bad. its old, sad, and you are pathetic. Give it a rest, truth makes you look stupid.

Do you need to pay to get that comparable player stuff. I went to the site and it wouldn't let me see anything beyond the basics.

So...Jason Bere and Nic Jackson or Steve Hosey and Kris Honel. Hmmmm... So hard; they're all so good!

BTW- how many comparable players do they list? I'd be interested in seeing beyond the top four for some of the other guys.

All that crap is stupid, though. Might as well use a magic eight ball. 'Will Tyler Colvin be a stud CFer?'

'Ask again later.'

Damn!

Another website (trying not to name names) stated that the O's were "adamant that Roberts would not be part of the opening day roster"

Has anyone seen anything that says the O's were flat out insistent that Roberts wouldn't be on the 25 come Opening Day?

BP is fun to read but you can't take it so seriously. Not only did they rave about Carlos Marmol's "great curveball" (even though he throws a slider) but Mike Fontenot is projected to hit .282 with 7 dingers and comparable to Todd Walker. Mark DeRosa has Travis Fryman as a comparable. With Travis Fryman starting at 2b for the Cubs with Todd Walker backing him up...who needs Roberts? (I'm just kidding, of course). The point is to take those projections/comparables with a grain of salt.

That's my whole point. Don't get on here and list comparables, and only those from one teams prospects. Comparables are pretty dumb, and while they can be fun, don't really prove a thing.

Adun, most of us know dark's posts are disingenuous and biased. It's getting so easy to expose it that it's actually beginning to bore me! But the mischievous side of me still likes to push his buttons. I can't help myself. It's amusing to me how indignant he gets. I'm probably going to hell.

Devlsh- you sure you got that right? Sounds...wrong. Send a link or something.

I know, but I can't help myself either. His arrogance drives me nuts.

Adun/crunchy- where would you fall on Roberts and Payton for Marquis, Colvin, Gallagher, Patterson. You keep Veal in this one, we get the big name McPhail craves (Colvin) and in switching Payton for Marquis, you get the backup veteran CF you need and save $11.25MM over the next 2 years (1 yr of Payton at $5MM vs. 2 yrs of Marquis at $16.25MM. More curious than anything. Could you see Hendry going for that (and don't switch in Ceda; I already gave you Veal; I want Colvin! LOL)

Mile,

Im down for that. If u let us keep veal and take marquis, ill give up colvin. I would love to sub cedeno in there for patterson, but we couldn't play him anyway. And once roberts contract is up, thomas should be ready as long as he keeps improving. I don't love it, bc u know I like colvin, but id do it to get it done. Now we just need to put in a call to our respective gms!

Done and done. You got Hendry. McPhail's on my speed dial (#6 I think). We'll have them sign the papers, then get drunk as monkeys and beat the crap out of 'em both for making us wait so friggin long.

Done deal. I literally might get hammered just to celebrate! I wonder what crunchy thinks...

By the way, after watching the cubs lately, im higher on patterson and down on cedeno. I really think e pat could be better than most think. He is blazing fast too...mcphail would be dumb not to take him.

Cool. This is the second deal I've done today! (LOL) Let's see, Colvin, Gallagher, Marquis, EPat for Roberts and Payton here and earlier, I traded Ramon Hernandez, George Sherrill, and Hayden Penn to Cincy (I know they're a Cubs division rival, but I gotta go where the deals are) for Homer Bailey, Todd Frazier, Jeremy Roenicke, and David Ross. McPhail needs to give me a friggin' job. I get things done! (LOL)

Yeah, I would do that deal too if I were you. Bailey? His stock may be down some, but he is a stud prospect none the less. You have to do that deal.

Right? An ace potential 21 year old and two other solid prospects... I think that would be a nice return.

Anyway, kind of out of left field, but there's a good article about Adam Jones on espn.com. O's fans will like it. :)

Milehigh, are you developing a man crush on Colvin? ;) Honestly, I’m very lukewarm on any deal that includes Colvin. It’s not so much the man himself but the dearth of quality OF prospects in the Cubs system. There is Pie in the bigs, then you’ve got Colvin, then you’ve got…no one. That’s the rub on the Cubs side. If the Cubs deal Colvin they’re putting all their eggs into the Pie basket. Considering they are not yet sold on Pie; that sounds like a strategy they’d like to avoid. Getting Payton as a backup helps lessen the dependency on Pie, but he’s not an everyday, long-term answer. If push comes to shove, I would consider pulling the trigger. But I wouldn’t be happy with it. Not so much because of fair value issues but because of the big hole it creates in the farm system. The Cubs want to do this deal but I believe they’ll do it from a position of surplus and not weaken the overall strength of the organization.

In my opinion, I don’t think the O’s covet Colvin like the press and fans seem to think they do. In other words, I’m speculating there’s a fair amount of speculation there! They’ve got a comparable OF prospect in Nolan Reimold who some, Keith Law for example, feel is better than Colvin anyway. Reimold is also more ready for the bigs than Colvin is. Then they’ve got CF and RF decided for the next 5-6 years, at least. The O’s biggest need is pitching. Loewen looks shaky, Patton is out, the choice for 5th starter is a motley crew. The O’s sent Bruce Kison to Cubs camp and he’s there to scout pitchers. When all is said and done, I think if the O’s make an offer, it will lean towards acquiring pitching depth. Here’s my twist ending though, if the Cubs do acquire Crisp, then I’d just as soon see the Cubs deal Pie to the Orioles then watch him rot on the Cubs bench. Pie is the kid you root for, regardless of what uniform he wears. Acquiring Crisp would signal to me that Colvin is the CF’er of the future in the organization’s eyes. I hope I didn’t dampen any celebrations :( but I feel like I wanted to respond with my honest opinion.

I'm glad you did Crunch. I would rather put all my eggs in Pie's basket than trade him. I'll root for him no matter what, but I don't want to be letting him go after giving him a whopping quarter season's worth of at bats. The thing that scares me about Colvin is that his celing is probably a .330 OBP. Although that may be the case with Pie as well...

Me neither Adun, my preference is to get Roberts and keep Pie. With Roberts the Cubs will have enough offense from 1-7 and we can just tell Pie to go out and play solid defense and create runs with his speed. Then leave him there for the whole year and let him develop his hitting. If there is no choice but to deal Colvin then ….I’d probably stew and wring my hands for weeks (even though I criticized McPhail for doing the same thing!) If acquiring Roberts buys some time and patience for Pie then that would make me lean more toward making a deal. But I would exhaust all other possibilities first.

Milehigh, I always enjoy reading your posts and there are some other knowledgeable O’s fans out there: basemonkey, sessmoharu, playwright…(forgive me if I left someone out) but I disagree with you all on Colvin’s availability. But that’s what’s cool, we can disagree and not call each other idiots. A lot of points about this Roberts deal (including scenarios with Colvin) are valid, even if I don’t always agree with them. It’s not black and white, right or wrong…there’s a lot of room for gray area when you’re talking about opinions. But that’s the part that makes it fun.

Hahaha, so (not surprisingly though) the lapdog (Adun) jumped in on the run-around without-a-point bitching as well? Hahaha…

Yes, it was bias that had me post an evaluation of the Cubs players; ***rolls eyes*** Yes Crunchy, by trying to comment on the Indians, PECOTA being my “Bible”, trying to claim that they made an error somewhere in the book so they must be wrong, etc ~ well you really “exposed” something there; didn’t ya? The only think you exposed is your obsession with me, nothing more, nothing less. If you weren’t obsessed with me and someone else posted what I had I doubt you would comment. But your obsession with me and your lapdogs jumping to be by your sidee ~ well, that gets you making your with-out-a-point posts…

Sorry, but nothing I said in this thread is bias, wrong, or even there ~ I didn’t even say anything! Sorry you guys didn’t like the evaluations, but that’s what they are and that’s who was talked about and it was an easiest way for a rather pointless conversation to have some non-bias info thrown into it and, well of course, your obsession had to show itself and make you (and your lapdog) look pitiful and captivated by me…

Dark, to be perfectly honest we’re toying with you. I’ll be direct since subtlety is not your strong point. That you can’t see a “point” in our references to your past posts speak volumes on your struggles to draw inferences. To put it simply, it’s our way of dismissing your opinion and to say that we are aware that you selectively choose what materials you reference. We’re also aware that you withhold information from the very same sources when it contradicts your opinion. It’s disingenuous. And we aren’t fooled. And you’re hubris is indeed fascinating; but fascinating in the same sense that a train wreck is fascinating. Lastly, your inability to express yourself through anything but anger and anger-fueled derision is sad and alludes to a pattern of behavior that is anti-social in nature. It’s amusing, to a point. Then we get bored. And I’m incurably bored with you now. But, hey, thanks for the giggles.

Pathetic dark. U now are to the point where you are posting things without a point, because you think we didn't have a point? What an idiot. Your arrogance mixed with being just barely smart enough to think you have it all figured out is what makes you so stupid. You believe you have nothing left to learn, which is the reason you will continue to be dumb. Take a lesson on humility, then read a book, get an iq over 10, and get back to me. Until then...go the fu*k away.