Stark's Latest: Roberts, Fuentes, Lofton

Thames for Heilman... ELL OH ELL

Why not Thames for Yates and Ring of the Braves? The Braves have a surplus of bullpen arms, many out of options, and need a back up 1b for Teixeria.

Sworn*
Bad spelling plus typekey logging me out after every post... its not my night lol

the os want to completely rob everyones farm system of prospects, which is why i think the cubs make a great trading partner. heres to getting this trade done....soon. at least with santana he was the best pitcher in baseball. this guys a freaking second baseman.

BTW, JoelCards- what would you say would be fair value for Roberts? Murton, Marshall and a bag of nail clippings? Eat poo (LOL- sorry, I'm cranky...being sick sucks)

Might be able to include the D-backs' Brandon Medders or Dustin Nippert in the list of possible relievers who may be available soon...both are out of options and it appears one of them will get squeezed when the Unit is ready to go. Medders is having a better spring, but we'll see who goes.

Folks can criticize the Os for dragging their feet on things (and maybe they do), but, all I care about is results. So far, based on early returns of deals, the Os dragging their feet has had very nice results. If that's what's helping the Os in the trades, then I say keep it going. And I think every fan of any team can understand that (and may want their own team to do the same).

Being slow and deliberate has had the effect of ramping up the urgency level for the Os' trade partner. Every Os trade this offseason has had their trade partner eventually offering significantly more than original rumors. Remember that original Roberts rumors was for Cedeno, Gallagher, and Murton. Today, Murton's been possibly swapped out for more than one promising prospect.

Also, there is no way on Earth Jamie Walker and/or Chad Bradford are due to be traded right now. The Os are building the team around developing the young pitching. That means finding bullpen anchors and up-the-middle defense to help the pitching performances stand up. Those guys might be on their way out later but that's not going to be this season.

RPs have more value in trades during the season. No one is going to trade a top prospect for an RP in the offseason unless he is a closer, and it still depends on the closer. But, if a team is at midseason and looking to be very close to winning the pennant and maybe more, a quality RP here or there can be an important piece worth going for.

I think everything we hear about the Orioles trading Sherrill, Bradford, and/or Walker right now is more wishful thinking by fans who want them for their own team. Sure, if a team offers an elite 20-23 yr old prospect for any of Sherrill, Bradford, or Walker, then I'd take it, but seriously, that's not going to happen right now. Making ourselves available for an unlikely trade offer is not keeping your options open.

I hate ESPN Insider.

Sorry. I have a 3 year old who wanted waffles with syrup and thomas the tank engine video... at 4 in the freaking morning...

From everything I've read lately, the O's haven't even told the Cubs who they want.

If I was Hendry I would put an offer on the table and give them 24 hours to "take it or leave it".

It's not the end of the world if we don't get Roberts. DeRosa is Roberts without the stolen bases. We can live with Theriot leading off for now. It's time to set the starting lineup.

I hope we never deal with the AngelO's again.

Marquis for Crisp. Marquis is pitching great, and was 12-9 last year for an 85-win team. That's not so bad!

*Disclaimer* This is completely fictitious but if the Cubs are going to trade 1/2 of their top prospects, I would much rather them trade all their top prospects and do the deal below.

Ceda + Gallagher + Veal + Colvin = B. Roberts

Ceda + Gallagher + Veal + Colvin + Donaldson + Vitters = H. Ramirez

I'm just saying...what the Cubs would be giving up should only be given up for a guy that is in his mid 20's, not his early 30's; and plays a position they actually need to fill, not a position they think they need to fill. Again, I dont actually think this would eve happen, this was just for comparison purposes.

Thanks, crunchy. But I can't take credit for that kind of insight. It's really just the garden variety "Smart Move." Any baseball fan who has seen baseball for a few decades knows the drill. It's the best possible scenario for trading RPs. Offhand I can remember several times in a row Oakland, as they were emerging from their long down years, they developed and dealt several closers/setup men in a row.

This also influences my opinion of Ceda. In my opinion, quality RPs are the cheapest and quickest to develop (i.e. 2 pitches, usually a fastball and "out" pitch, and, at least 1 inning of stamina). Therefore they are also the easiest to convert into value in midseason trades when contenders are 80 games away from a pennant. Also, take into consideration that RPs who maintain more than a 3 year peak are a few times per generation. Ceda might be a very good exciting player but if he's likely to be an RP, then his best value to the Cubs might be in converting back to high potential talent in other scarcer areas.

If anyone would offer top rotation potential lower level SPs right now for Sherrill, I'd do it. My guess though is that he's not worth that right now. Though to a team who is 81+ games away from the WS, then it's worth it.

Actually Crunchy, I think it was my idea from the Start about Sherrill. I still believe it too.

Roberts and Sherrill will be wearing Cubbie blue

Actually, the speculation that the O’s are the ones who have yet to move makes the most sense. Speaking from someone who’s had the “pleasure” of having McPhail as my team’s GM; this is typical M.O. He's not as shrewd as people think he is. He’s so worried about what the press is going to say about his deals that he wrings his hands and is unable to get anything done. It’s paralysis by analysis. In Chicago, it meant letting more than a couple opportunities go by. The problem is McPhail’s ego can’t afford to make a deal that doesn’t look good on paper and in the public’s eye. He’s the only GM I know that references BA’s prospects list when he makes a deal. He’s a fraud. McPhail sitting and stewing about a trade fits the pattern he’s had since his days with the Cubs.

I wouldnt actually "DO" Colvin and one other, but I would trade them.

"Marlins looking for at Starter"

Would they trade Ramirez now? If they got the right deal?

Ceda + Gallagher + Veal + Colvin + Donaldson + Marquis (contract paid for)

uww1- I don't think the Fish are looking to move Hanley now that they've got a new ballpark planned. Not saying it's impossible, but it's not even being whispered about (except on this site :)) Crunchy beat me to the Sherrill thing and I agree he's unlikely to be involved in the Roberts deal. It makes sense, don't get me wrong, but the Cubs are hesitant to give up top prospects and I think McPhail is trying to up dude's value as a closer...like basemonkey said. Now, if Hendry wanted to pay full closer price...(not happening)

Delaware Bird- I agree that any deal minus Ceda or Colvin is, as you put it 'no dice.' THAT'S WHY I don't think it's going to get done. The Cubs aren't looking to move those guys. I'm not saying it's a good thing or a bad thing. It just IS (IMHO)!

Crunchy- I get it. You're not a big McPhail fan. Then again, you'll probably be saying the same thing about Hendry in a couple years but that's neither here nor there.

Good news: he's not your GM anymore! And for the most part, O's fans are pretty happy about what he's done so far, so...

Do you not think Hendry has a big ego? Men in power always have big egos; you don't reach the top being a mousy little b*&#$. And it seems to me that you'd want a GM with a big ego; he'll be that much more motivated to maintain it: smart moves, top prospects, etc. I agree that the whole 'quoting BA' thing is pretty lame, but whadyagondo, eh? (sorry, flashed back to Donnie Brasco for a second for some reason) At least that means he's going after the best...and he's not going to let a guy of Roberts' caliber go without getting a nice haul.

In fact, wouldn't that strengthen the argument that he's not going to budge on Ceda/Colvin (I think we've reached the point where Pie staying in Chicago is implied)? Ah, who the hell cares?! Like I said last night- This thing is DEAD for now. See ya at midseason.

uww1,
You are officially out of your mind. An obvious die hard Cubs fan in love with Cubs prospects. I respect that. But to claim that 3 of Gallagher, Ceda, Colvin, Veal is more than the Bedard return is beyond ridiculous and into the world of fairy tales.

Adam Jones is currently leaps and bounds better than Colvin. Without question.

Tillman is cleary a better prospect than Gallagher (although Gallagher is closer to the majors and more likely to be a contributor).

Sherill actually pitches in a major league bullpen with success. Ceda has had success at single A.

Comparing Veal to Mickolio, the stats lean towards Mickolio by a landslide.

Plus the Orioles got LHP Tony Butler from the Mariners in the Bedard trade.

How funny is it that MacPhail can trade Tejada without issue, trade Bedard before spring training began, but it is all his fault that Roberts isn't a Cub? Speculate all you want, none of us KNOW the truth. Seems like the man can do his job and knows what he wants.

Gallagher, Colvin, Ceda/Veal, and Patterson for Roberts, Payton seems about right.

Donald Veal
Top Comparables Chris Capuano, Mathew Maloney, Tom Gorzelanny, Ed Yarnall
2008:
That Veal is the best pitching prospect the Cubs have is irrefutable evidence that their farm system is no longer the pitching factory it once was. He failed to take a step forward last year, particularly in terms of his command. The silver lining is that there’s a school of thought that says big lefties develop slowly, with top PECOTA comparable Chris Capuano being one of the better examples

Sean Gallagher
Top Comparables Jason Bere, Hayden Penn, Albie Lopez, Grant Roberts
2008:
Gallagher will be just 22 next season and already possesses an average fastball and breaking pitch, but both PECOTA and scouts are dubious about how much better he’s likely to get. Gallagher’s command isn’t good, and physically he’s stocky and perhaps somewhat overbuilt. Deeper down on his PECOTA comparables list are a couple of encouraging names such as Jason Schmidt’s, but for the most part its just more guys like Bere, Lopez, and Roberts, who often proved frustrating to their employers.

Joe Ceda
Top Comparables Shane Lindsay, Nick Neugebauer, Manny Acosta, Anibal Sanchez
2008:
Ceda is raw and doesn’t throw a lot of strikes, but his combination of youth, size and velocity is rare, and he was touching 98 mph on the radar gun by the end of the year at Peoria. The Cubs see him as a relief pitcher, a role that can sometimes give pitchers with command problems a bit of a break, and his ceiling is that of a big-league closer.

Tyler Colvin
Top Comparables Nic Jackson, Terrence Long, Jacque Jones, Aaron Rowand
2008:
At this stage of development, Colvin has a couple of significant holes in his swing; anytime your strikeout-to-walk ratio looks like Tom Brady’s touchdown-to-interception ratio, that’s bad news. While the power and speed tools are there, they’re not off the charts. Colvin’s upside is being a .280/.320/.500-type of hitter; that’s valuable in center field, but less so in an outfield corner, so his defensive progress is the key. Although our translations suggest Colvin took quite well to center last year, the scouting reports were mixed.

I didn’t like McPhail even when he was still in Chicago. In fact, I don’t know anyone who wasn’t happy the day he resigned. Give it a cuppa, too-tree years (a little Chicago accent for ya ;) and see if you still like him. And I do agree that you have to have a big ego to be a GM but McPhail is too worried about LOOKING good in my opinion. To be fair, his plan was to stockpile arms in the minor league system – and they all seemingly got hurt. Every prospect from Kerry Wood to Bobby Brownlie seemed to spend more time in the trainer’s room than on the field developing skills. And he is still much better than past GM’s Ed Lynch and Jim Frey (quite possibly the two worst GM’s in the history of the universe.) But when it came to making trades, he wound up spending a lot more time analyzing them than actually doing them.

"Comparing Veal to Mickolio, the stats lean towards Mickolio by a landslide."

Veal is the better prospect by a "landslide"...I don't know what you are smoking.

"How funny is it that MacPhail can trade Tejada without issue, trade Bedard before spring training began, but it is all his fault that Roberts isn't a Cub?"

Yeah, that Bedard trade went so smoothly, I can't believe anyone thinks McFailure is the one holding this up!

Steve Stone won a Cy Young for Baltimore in 1980. He's a Cubs and Sox announcer today.

Damn it, Jim! Er- Crunchy. I SAID that Veal was listed higher by most sources and was comparing him to Butler; never Mickolio, who doesn't compare well as both a middle relief prospect and, basically, a throw-in (I don't think he's a particularly good prospect, nor have I ever said he was. He's OK at best and hardly counts as the exciting part of that deal...sorta like Cedeno/Patterson).

So...let me try this again. In terms of Veal/Butler, Veal probably gets the nod for now (assuming the labrum thing isn't true), but Butler could easily surpass him as soon as this year with continued progress and if Veal continues to stagnate (or decline!). Veal had a tough year in '07 and could be poised to bounce back. In a perfect world (for Cubs fans), the Cubs hang on to him and he rockets back up the charts thanks to his electric arm and a revival of that famous curve. That way, the Cubs can hold him up as a top prospect and get the value associated with top prospects in return. For now, his value is largely tied to an '07 that was absolutely AWFUL! He still ranks higher than Butler...now...but at this point, it's close and Butler has a similarly high upside due to age and stuff (Scout.com, for instance, calls him a future No. 2; BA a No. 3, but- and I'm guessing a little here- I'd bet they'd move him up to a 2 if he can develop an above average change...hardly an impossibility). Veal's superiority over Butler is tenuous at best and certainly isn't enough to say that that, everything else considered, the Roberts proposal would be better than the Bedard return.

milehigh, the Veal post was intended for delaware bird. But you're right in reference to Butler. There's no reason he can't have a great year and surpass Veal. He just needs to prove himself. He's got a great arm.

Thanks, Crunch! Let's grab a milkshake! (LOL- sorry, the cold/flu meds have me a bit goofy)

Crunchy ~ Either find a point or just don’t respond to things. You never had a point in trying to call me out, so you want to instead do your runaround off-topic irrelevant bitch crap. You claim there is a debate, but there is no debate here to be had ~ youre just trying to whine because someone posted evaluations I guess. Its far from my Bible, I next to never even use the site (whatever that had to do with anything anyway) ~ but you try and dismiss them because you don’t want to believe what they said or it doesn’t suit your best interests in the conversation? And I’m “ad hominem” because you posted to me without a reason, point or relevant comment? If anything, both your posts are nothing but “ad hominem” at its absolute pitiful height. Really, whatever dude… like I said, just keep showing your issues…

Glad to see you back, milehigh. I think Veal is a boom or bust guy. No question about it. I’m not sure I’d write him off if he doesn’t have a great year. If he can show some improvement there is still hope for him to reach his ceiling. Big lefties, for whatever reason, sometimes take a while to develop. Now if he has another awful year – that’s a different story. I think they’ll turn him into a reliever where he can concentrate on being a two pitch guy – and that, of course, would lessen his status as a prospect.

By the way...lets be fair and see what BP projects as Jones and Tillman's top Comparables.

Jones
1. Steve Hosey
2. Chet Lemon
3. Larry Hisle
4. Jack Clark

Tillman
1. Kris Honel
2. Chris Seelbach
3. Gaby Hernandez
4. Carlos Carrasco

Man that list is making the Cubs offer look tremendous. Not to mention Dark, you forgot to mention Colvin's #7 comp, a guy named Granderson.

Now I'm still not saying its better, but Crunch is right about you Dark. You continue to show your Cubs bias by posting anything you can to make them, their players, and their fans look bad. its old, sad, and you are pathetic. Give it a rest, truth makes you look stupid.

So...Jason Bere and Nic Jackson or Steve Hosey and Kris Honel. Hmmmm... So hard; they're all so good!

All that crap is stupid, though. Might as well use a magic eight ball. 'Will Tyler Colvin be a stud CFer?'

'Ask again later.'

Damn!

BP is fun to read but you can't take it so seriously. Not only did they rave about Carlos Marmol's "great curveball" (even though he throws a slider) but Mike Fontenot is projected to hit .282 with 7 dingers and comparable to Todd Walker. Mark DeRosa has Travis Fryman as a comparable. With Travis Fryman starting at 2b for the Cubs with Todd Walker backing him up...who needs Roberts? (I'm just kidding, of course). The point is to take those projections/comparables with a grain of salt.

Adun, most of us know dark's posts are disingenuous and biased. It's getting so easy to expose it that it's actually beginning to bore me! But the mischievous side of me still likes to push his buttons. I can't help myself. It's amusing to me how indignant he gets. I'm probably going to hell.

I know, but I can't help myself either. His arrogance drives me nuts.

Mile,

Im down for that. If u let us keep veal and take marquis, ill give up colvin. I would love to sub cedeno in there for patterson, but we couldn't play him anyway. And once roberts contract is up, thomas should be ready as long as he keeps improving. I don't love it, bc u know I like colvin, but id do it to get it done. Now we just need to put in a call to our respective gms!

Done deal. I literally might get hammered just to celebrate! I wonder what crunchy thinks...

By the way, after watching the cubs lately, im higher on patterson and down on cedeno. I really think e pat could be better than most think. He is blazing fast too...mcphail would be dumb not to take him.

Yeah, I would do that deal too if I were you. Bailey? His stock may be down some, but he is a stud prospect none the less. You have to do that deal.

Milehigh, are you developing a man crush on Colvin? ;) Honestly, I’m very lukewarm on any deal that includes Colvin. It’s not so much the man himself but the dearth of quality OF prospects in the Cubs system. There is Pie in the bigs, then you’ve got Colvin, then you’ve got…no one. That’s the rub on the Cubs side. If the Cubs deal Colvin they’re putting all their eggs into the Pie basket. Considering they are not yet sold on Pie; that sounds like a strategy they’d like to avoid. Getting Payton as a backup helps lessen the dependency on Pie, but he’s not an everyday, long-term answer. If push comes to shove, I would consider pulling the trigger. But I wouldn’t be happy with it. Not so much because of fair value issues but because of the big hole it creates in the farm system. The Cubs want to do this deal but I believe they’ll do it from a position of surplus and not weaken the overall strength of the organization.

In my opinion, I don’t think the O’s covet Colvin like the press and fans seem to think they do. In other words, I’m speculating there’s a fair amount of speculation there! They’ve got a comparable OF prospect in Nolan Reimold who some, Keith Law for example, feel is better than Colvin anyway. Reimold is also more ready for the bigs than Colvin is. Then they’ve got CF and RF decided for the next 5-6 years, at least. The O’s biggest need is pitching. Loewen looks shaky, Patton is out, the choice for 5th starter is a motley crew. The O’s sent Bruce Kison to Cubs camp and he’s there to scout pitchers. When all is said and done, I think if the O’s make an offer, it will lean towards acquiring pitching depth. Here’s my twist ending though, if the Cubs do acquire Crisp, then I’d just as soon see the Cubs deal Pie to the Orioles then watch him rot on the Cubs bench. Pie is the kid you root for, regardless of what uniform he wears. Acquiring Crisp would signal to me that Colvin is the CF’er of the future in the organization’s eyes. I hope I didn’t dampen any celebrations :( but I feel like I wanted to respond with my honest opinion.

Me neither Adun, my preference is to get Roberts and keep Pie. With Roberts the Cubs will have enough offense from 1-7 and we can just tell Pie to go out and play solid defense and create runs with his speed. Then leave him there for the whole year and let him develop his hitting. If there is no choice but to deal Colvin then ….I’d probably stew and wring my hands for weeks (even though I criticized McPhail for doing the same thing!) If acquiring Roberts buys some time and patience for Pie then that would make me lean more toward making a deal. But I would exhaust all other possibilities first.

Milehigh, I always enjoy reading your posts and there are some other knowledgeable O’s fans out there: basemonkey, sessmoharu, playwright…(forgive me if I left someone out) but I disagree with you all on Colvin’s availability. But that’s what’s cool, we can disagree and not call each other idiots. A lot of points about this Roberts deal (including scenarios with Colvin) are valid, even if I don’t always agree with them. It’s not black and white, right or wrong…there’s a lot of room for gray area when you’re talking about opinions. But that’s the part that makes it fun.

Dark, to be perfectly honest we’re toying with you. I’ll be direct since subtlety is not your strong point. That you can’t see a “point” in our references to your past posts speak volumes on your struggles to draw inferences. To put it simply, it’s our way of dismissing your opinion and to say that we are aware that you selectively choose what materials you reference. We’re also aware that you withhold information from the very same sources when it contradicts your opinion. It’s disingenuous. And we aren’t fooled. And you’re hubris is indeed fascinating; but fascinating in the same sense that a train wreck is fascinating. Lastly, your inability to express yourself through anything but anger and anger-fueled derision is sad and alludes to a pattern of behavior that is anti-social in nature. It’s amusing, to a point. Then we get bored. And I’m incurably bored with you now. But, hey, thanks for the giggles.