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By Joe Pawlikowski [May 3, 2008 at 10:56am CST]
Oh no! It's a Yankees blogger talking about the Red Sox! He's gonna be all biased and junk! While I'm sure I'll get some of that in the comments, I think talking about Jason Varitek's impending free agency is a worthy topic for this slow Saturday. So, what are we looking at for the 36-year-old backstop?
You know where I'm going with this. After the 2007 season, a 36-year-old Jorge Posada signed a four-year, $52.4MM contract. This was on the heels of Posada's best season, .338/.426/.543. Can we expect something similar for Varitek, who will turn 37 at the beginning of the 2009 season?
The short answer: no. I understand that Varitek means a lot to the Red Sox as a team. But does that really justify giving him a four-year deal? In my opinion, no. Then again, Varitek is the same season-age as Jorge, so maybe he'll be looking for a three-year deal. But even then, do the Red Sox want to match Jorge's yearly salary of $13.1MM?
Red Sox fans might kill me, but once again I have to say no. If I showed you Player 1 and Player 2, without identifying them, and asked you to tell me who has had the better career, you'd pick Player 1 without question. I'd even factor in that Player 2 plays demonstrably better defense. It's still a landslide.
Varitek is off to a quiet start this year, hitting .256/.301/.449. I expect he'll bring those numbers up, as he had a similarly slow start last year, yet finished at .255/.367/.421. But you have to wonder how much longer he's going to hold up. Tek was great from 2003 through 2005, but hasn't been able to reach the same levels over the past two years. And while he'll rebound this year, it's doubtful his OPS+ will be much more than 100.
So what would you pay for a league average hitting catcher for his age 37 through, say, 39 seasons? I figure the Red Sox will end up matching his previous deal, only three years this time around. So three years, $30MM. But it's not like the Red Sox don't have the resources to add a fourth year.
Posted by Joe Pawlikowski.
This isnt even a discussion. Just because they both catch doesnt mean the contracts should be comparable. Varitek was great, he had an awesome career, and Redsox fans will probably always love him, but the guy is coming to the end. If the re-signed him to a 1 or 2 year deal worth 5 or 6 mil a season that is one thing, but even the thought of Varitek snagging a contract anywhere in the range of Posada's contract is just crazy.
Posted by: nrmax88 | May 03, 2008 at 11:07 AM
Red Sox fan here.
I agree 100 percent. If Varitek's new deal approaches Posada's, it would be a disaster (to be fair, I think Posada's contract is going to look pretty ugly, too). Frankly, I hope the Red Sox do everything they can to replace Varitek with new (younger) blood.
I watch every game, and I see an all glove, very little stick player, whose skills on both sides of the ball are in decline (soon to be rapid decline). Don't get me wrong. I love what Tek brings to the pitching staff and clubhouse in general, but he is not a $10mil player. I would argue that he probably shouldn't be an everyday catcher over the next 2 years. His numbers are dropping, he is getting old, and has taken a serious pounding over the years (I'm pretty sure catching doesn't get easier with age). I wouldn't be surprised to see him batting .220 - .230 in a part time role in 2010. Would anybody be surprised by that?
Frankly, I will be disappointed next year when Varitek is the Sox's everyday back stop. Great guy. Fading player.
Loyal Red Sox fan.
Posted by: Mr_Punch | May 03, 2008 at 11:11 AM
He'll get a 3 year deal, I bet. He's not worth that much money, of course, but he would make a GREAT backup and mentor to a younger guy. I'd even go so far as to say he could be a manager one day. But signing him at this point is as much PR as anything else, and he doesn't deserve the on he he'll likely get.
Posted by: FineHamAbounds | May 03, 2008 at 11:20 AM
bias bias bias, you suck you suck you suck.
Pettite-HGH, needle in the bum, '04, epic collapse, 2000. I think I got it all.
3/30 sounds about right.
Posted by: ArodSucksAtLife | May 03, 2008 at 11:28 AM
I think the Posada deal was an omen to the Red Sox not to make the same mistake. I don't know what the legalities of a contract are, but could the Red Sox sign Varitek to a one year deal with a club option for 2010? Of course I understand Varitek would be hesitant to sign to a deal like this, but he must also recognize that his days are numbered. How much longer would you want to play if you knew you were not going to be as productive as you wanted to be?
Posted by: brenw1411 | May 03, 2008 at 11:33 AM
I'm pretty much in agreement with all of you who say Varitek doesn't deserve the contract Posada got. This is coming from a Red Sox fan. IMO Posada didn't even deserve the contract he got.
He'll probably end up getting a 3 year deal with a club option for a 4th year. I'd imagine by the 3rd year he'd be the back up, but that is contingent upon the Sox actually getting a good young backup to replace Varitek.
I would love for the Sox to make a deal for Jeff Clement, but I'm afraid that would send V-Tek to the bench a little bit early.
Posted by: daniel b. | May 03, 2008 at 11:41 AM
You have to understand that the only reason Posada got that contract was to keep a home grown Yankee in pinstripes. They knew how much it meant to fans that Posada remain a Yankee for his entire career. I don't know how much the Sox fans care about that stuff but if Varitek gets a big contract it should be looked at the same. The way I look at it they're also buying legend. It'll be a great day for Yankee fans in the future when Posada gets his plaque retired as another lifelong Yankee. I'd be very surprised to see them short change Varitek.
Posted by: jay | May 03, 2008 at 12:11 PM
Fortunately the Sox are smart enough to give a 36 year old catcher a 4 year deal.
Posted by: fitz | May 03, 2008 at 12:15 PM
not to give* :)
Posted by: fitz | May 03, 2008 at 12:19 PM
hey, I have kind of unrelated question to anyone that can answer it......How do you determine rookie status...like how many games do you have to have played the previous year, or years to be considered a rooke? Does anyone have a link or anything that kind of explains this. Thanks!
Posted by: cincy_11 | May 03, 2008 at 12:23 PM
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/official_info/about_mlb/rules_regulations.jsp
Determining rookie status:
A player shall be considered a rookie unless, during a previous season or seasons, he has (a) exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues; or (b) accumulated more than 45 days on the active roster of a Major League club or clubs during the period of 25-player limit (excluding time in the military service and time on the disabled list).
Posted by: stellar | May 03, 2008 at 12:59 PM
As a Sox fan I like to think that Tek would take 3/27 (10, 9, 8) with no issue simply because he has been around so long and would want to retire with the Sox. He could groom some young kid and then split time with him in his final year. But with Boras behind him, who knows.
Posted by: pollcatfactor | May 03, 2008 at 01:34 PM
Scott Boras reps Varitek so he will no doubt play every angle to get Varitek a good (and most likely final) contract: Posada comparisons, game calling, pitching staff management, fan favorite, etc. But where Posada can convert into a good DH in a couple years, Varitek wont. I actually expect Varitek to hit the DL several times this season. Cash will be handling alot of games this year.
I wonder if Farrell moves on next year, would Varitek become the new pitching coach?? Probably not....that's a difference of $30M!!
Posted by: el clash combo | May 03, 2008 at 01:36 PM
Varitek's career high in OPS+ is 122 with an average of 103....Posada averaged 124, high of 154....the fact that they are both 36-year-old catchers on huge market teams is incidental....however, Tek should get a career-ending contract with the Sox...
@cincy_11
If you typed in your question "How do you determine rookie status" into Google, the link posted by stellar is the first one that comes up...
Posted by: scatterbrian | May 03, 2008 at 01:52 PM
You people saying Varitek will get a 3 or 4 year deal are smoking something funny. He's a borderline backup catcher at this point. A 37 year old who is declining. No GM in baseball will sign a 38 year old catcher next season to a 3 or 4 year contract, especially if he has a crappy year like last season.
Varitek will get a 1 year deal with the Red Sox, at best. At worst he fades down the stretch this year and has to retire. The guy has almost nothing left in the tank.
Posted by: hemingways | May 03, 2008 at 03:11 PM
Varitek doesn't offer much more than a guy like Gregg Zaun these days (similar avg and OPB. Both have stellar D) and he got about 3 million so that tells you about what Varitek is worth.
However, given that Epstein is notorious for giving out awful contracts, I expect Varitek to get around triple his actual value of 3-4 million per season.
hemingways: Don't forget we are talking about the worst GM in baseball. Lugo, Renteria, Drew... don't put anything by a guy like him.
Posted by: Grant77 | May 03, 2008 at 03:22 PM
Worst GM in baseball is Epstein? That's about the funniest thing I've heard...ever. Yea, I guess helping build a team that has won the World Series twice in 4 years deserves to be called the worst GM in baseball. The guy takees chances and sometimes he gets caught with his weenie hangin in the wind, but you can't say he hasn't made some brilliant moves...not signing Pedro...not signing Damon...04 trade deadline deal for Nomar...Schilling deal...Ortiz...Okajima...the development of the #2 farm in baseball. And I think that's the shot of the list of good that he has brought to the Sox. Again, he has made mistakes, but the Red Sox are good enough earners that he can get away with some bad contracts (Lugo, Drew, Renteria, Crisp, Gagne, etc). To say that he is the wost GM in baseball is just wrong, and leads me to think that maybe you're just jealous you don't have a guy like Epstein managing your team.
Posted by: rip | May 03, 2008 at 03:59 PM
I'm pretty much in agreement with all of you who say Varitek doesn't deserve the contract Posada got. This is coming from a Red Sox fan. IMO Posada didn't even deserve the contract he got.
He'll probably end up getting a 3 year deal with a club option for a 4th year. I'd imagine by the 3rd year he'd be the back up, but that is contingent upon the Sox actually getting a good young backup to replace Varitek.
I would love for the Sox to make a deal for Jeff Clement, but I'm afraid that would send V-Tek to the bench a little bit early.
Posted by: daniel b. | May 03, 2008 at 11:41 AM ,
With you saying posada did not desirve the contract he got, i say you need to look at baseball a little more.
posada has an awesome career as a catcher, can give you a 280 average and 15-20 homers a season.he had his best offensive season last year and is not a bad backstop.
YOU HAVE TO UNDERSTAND IT'S PLAYERS LIKE POSADA THE YANKEES MAKE A GREAT INCOME ON.
yankees make a lot of money from media, i'd say the red sox needs to give teck a 3 year deal worth 7-8 million a year, he could really help the next red sox catcher.
As a die hard yankees fan i just love the way teck plays the game, he handlles his pitching staff greatly and has a good bat for a catcher, it will be a hard task to replace veritck,but i think they should bring up a young catcher as their backup guy and let him learn form jason.
Posted by: BxSquad | May 03, 2008 at 04:00 PM
I guess the only thing in the OP's commentary I might disagree with is the "league average hitting catcher" part. I realize that OPS+ is a nice comparative stat, but a catcher posting an OPS+ of 100 is probably a bit better than league average, since the OPS+ of 100 equals overall league average not positional league average. With some really poor hitting catchers out there, I'd bet the league average OPS+ is a bit under 100 for that position.
That being said, paying Varitek a ton of money is crazy, as George Kottaras is hitting well in AAA. Something in the 2-3 year range with Varitek(maybe 2+ an option)and a phasing out of him as the full time starter would be a good idea, kind of like the Girardi/Posada situation more than 10 years ago.
Posted by: gatling | May 03, 2008 at 05:45 PM
The Red Sox are more likely to overpay then over extend
2yrs 22mil + special services contract when he retires
Posted by: TALL THRILL | May 03, 2008 at 06:05 PM
Extending Varitek for anything more than a couple years is a poor investment. (One could argue even that is too much.) In a perfect world, he willingly takes a short-term deal at a hometown discount to end his career with the Sox and selflessly mentors the next catcher to take the reigns in a timeshare that gradually works its way up to 50/50. That's not going to happen but that's what would help the team long-term.
At this point in time, you aren't extending Jason Varitek because he's a feature catcher and good in every facet of his game; you are paying Varitek for his intangibles. Yes, he handles the pitching staff well but he doesn't have any bat speed left that he can afford to lose. As is, there are streaks where it completely disappears and he's flailing like a fish out of water. It's not pretty and the thought of seeing that through his age 40+ is nauseating.
If you're going to be giving a catcher 8 figures annually (or close to it), you want the total package. Jason Varitek isn't it anymore. I like 'Tek but I'd have no qualms about cutting him loose if he prices himself out of Boston. There are some potential trade candidates at catcher floating around plus Miguel Olivo, Michael Barrett, David Ross, and Rod Barajas will be free agents that aren't in line for big/long-term contracts. The Sox could piece together the production they need at catcher if Boras pulls a stunt. The Sox aren't in a position where their backs are against the wall when it comes to need at catcher... yet. They don't have to give into Varitek/Boras demands.
Posted by: TNS | May 03, 2008 at 10:39 PM
rip: you must be joking. My team would be in last place if Epstein was running it. Any dumbass can run a team with that sort of cash. No GM in the past 10 years has made more awful trades or signings than Epstein. He has minumum four of the top 10 worst of each.
Posted by: Grant77 | May 04, 2008 at 01:01 PM
rip: you must be joking. My team would be in last place if Epstein was running it. Any dumbass can run a team with that sort of cash. No GM in the past 10 years has made more awful trades or signings than Epstein. He has minumum four of the top 10 worst of each.
Having the luckiest season in the history of the modern era (least injuries) was the driving factor behind the 2007 run.
Posted by: Grant77 | May 04, 2008 at 01:03 PM