Jonathan Mayo Projects The Top Ten Picks

I don't know what the big fuss over Buster Posey is. His projected HR power is 10-15 tops, while Skipworth has improved his D behind the plate in addition to having pole-to-pole projectable power. Posey just seems like a weak pick for number 1 overall much less the top 5

Another reason why I hate the draft, top player drops to 5th because of costs involved.

If the Rays draft Posey with the first overall pick in the draft they will regret it almost as much as Dewon Brazelton(3rd overall).

Manny Ramirez just made a catch that will be replayed on Sports Center for months, he high fived a fan in the middle of a double play. I love that man.

"Another reason why I hate the draft, top player drops to 5th because of costs involved."

WAAAAAAAHHHHHHH, and the top player is Pedro Alvarez.

Interesting. I kind agree with the first poster in that I don't see why Posey has shot up boards so fast. He has had a great season but he has nearly doubled his power numbers from last year. I'm just not sold. I'm not sure if ncbowman was trying to say Skipworth should be the first pick or not but I'd have a hard time taking a C that high. The odds just aren't in your favor.

My projected top 10 at the beginning of April was:

1. Tampa Bay Rays - Tim Beckham
2. Pittsburgh Pirates - Aaron Crow
3. Kansas City Royals - Brian Matusz
4. Baltimore Orioles - Pedro Alvarez
5. San Francisco Giants - Justin Smoak
6. Florida Marlins - Kyle Skipworth
7. Cincinnati Reds - Gordon Beckham
8. Chicago White Sox - Buster Posey
9. Washington Nationals - Jamile Weeks
10. Houston Astros - Aaron Hicks

Obviously not very close to what Mayo says is going to happen but I'm surprised he thinks Alvarez and Hosmer's demands wont scare the Pirates and Royals away. Alvarez wants 12+ I believe and Hosmer wants a ML contract and around 9-10 I think. Very interesting...

I can see Alvarez falling to the O's as well. The wild card is Pittsburgh ownership. They haven't made high-ceiling expensive picks for some time (outside of maybe relievers). BTW, the Orioles Number 5 pick from last year, Matt Weiters, is annihilating the ball at High A and should be at AA Bowie before the end of June. He's leading the Carolina League with 8 HRs, is batting .333, and has an OPS of 1.003

Baseball America's Jim Callis did an excellent draft chat today, but unfortunately it's behind ESPN's wall.

http://proxy.espn.go.com/chat/chatESPN?event_id=20605

I REALLY doubt Tim Beckham falls to the Giants at no. 5. I don't think he's a Boras client and haven't heard he has outrageous contract demands. Plus he's the only standout 5-tool guy AND he probably stays at the premium position that is SS!

I think Hicks is a prettty stand out 5-tool guy. They both are really raw; in fact I like Hicks offensively as much as Beckham but playing SS gives him the significant advantage. Of course Hicks throws 97-98 off the mound I believe so he could end up as a pitcher.

I can see the O's taking Matusz, but if Beckham or Alvarez are out there, I think we bite.

And yes, Wieters is showing that high-priced talent can be a good investment. He will see the majors in 2009.

Hicks is awesome, I just think Beckham is considered THE standout. T. Beck is considered to be legit top 5...Hicks is legit first half.

Right but only because he plays SS. If he had already moved off SS, I don't think he would be considered much higher then Hicks. His bat is as raw and the power is completely projection. I don't know if I'd take Beckham with the first pick or even a top 5 but thought the Rays might. I can't see him getting past KC though if he isn't taken 1st. Will be interesting.

when is the Draft? I'm just curious because I think if JP Riccardi is going to lose his job it should be before then.

:D

Last years draft wasn't to bad was it? Jackson and Ahrens have both played well I believe. Tolisano, Arencibia, Cecil...not to bad.

If it's too early to project now, a month away, then i seriously question my selection of reading material over the last two months. you win again mayo.

I'm not saying Riccardi has done a bad job, infact I like alot of his choices. I'm just saying "if" they are going to fire him, you should give the new guy a chance to start with his direction of the team at the draft.

Ahh...ok I get you.

Also let me clarify, I don't think Tim Beckham will move off of SS just saying if he was anything but a SS, he and Hicks would probably be rated the same.

I don't get the firing Riccardi before the draft. How would the new GM prepare for the draft?

The new GM would have to use the old GM's scouting department or he'd basically be pulling names out thin air. Most GMs hire or restructure the scouting department upon arrival. It's usually one of the 1st things they do.

Think about this, you'd be asking a guy to participate in a draft with just a few weeks time to prepare, and that's if he was hired instantly, and alot of GM hirings take weeks, so the draft would have already passed. I don't know how long a front office prepares for the June draft, but I'm betting its longer than a couple weeks.

Tim Beckham is definite top 5 and I'd be shocked if he fell past 4. A comp I've heard was a mix between Brian Roberts and Brandon Phillips, with average (or better) defense at SS. Of course there is some projection built-in, but everything I've read suggests he is as safe as it comes for a HS hitter. And I haven't read anything about big bonus demands.

Some of Mayo's projections/ruminations don't make much sense to me. The Royals already have a decent number of 1B/3B options, so why go with an expensive HS 1B like Hosmer when their best window for winning is probably in 2-3 years, when Hosmer might not be ready to contribute? Plus, to take a 1B 3rd overall, you have to be 100% sure his bat will play. I could see them taking Alvarez, despite any potential logjams, just because his timeframe fits more with what they have right now. Another good option would be Matusz.

He also suggests Skipworth to the Astros if he falls to 10. Doesn't make much sense for a win-now team with a rookie C (Towles) to take a HS C. Of course, his actual projection (Scheppers) is perfect. I'd bet a lot of money the Astros would love to get either Hunt or Scheppers, both of whom might be able to help the team while Berkman, Lee, Oswalt, Pence, and Towles are still in Houston. Gordon Beckham might be another possibility, either as a replacement for Tejada in 2010 or Matsui in 2011.

Smoak to the Nat's doesn't make much sense to me. They've already moved Marrero to 1B and one of the nice things about Smoak is that he's supposedly a gold glove caliber guy at 1B. Seems like they'd be better served taking a pitcher, one of the catchers, or Gordon Beckam.

I think the Royals should go for Crow still. He would still probably be their ace in two years, people are freaking out because he fell back to earth after an unreal start. It would be like Jim Bowden to take the toolsiest player, I think he'll go for Aaron Hicks. And while I would prefer Smoak, it is looking like Brett Wallace will take over for Jim Thome in the not-so-distant future. Word is everywhere that the White Sox love Wallace.

I've read several articles saying Beckham is raw in every aspect of the game and it's perfectly conceivable he ends up with only 3 or 4 of the 5 tools some people are saying he already has. Playing SS with defense good enough to stay there helps because if his bat only develops to half of what people are projecting he is still probably going to make it to the majors. Several people made early comps to Upton and that just isn't the case. There is still a good bit of risk there I think. The Brian Roberts comp is ok but that is still an awful lot of projecting I think.

Wow that seems like a heck of a reach for Wallace at 8.

I could see Hicks at 9 for the Nats.

Crow scares me with his mechanics. I'm no expert and of course there are varying opinions on what leads to injury of anything but from what I've read he doesn't look to good. I had heard early Crow was a top the Pirates board which is why I had him going 2. I really like what Moore has been doing and hope he keeps it up taking Matusz who I think is a much safer bet.

"I can see Alvarez falling to the O's as well. The wild card is Pittsburgh ownership. They haven't made high-ceiling expensive picks for some time (outside of maybe relievers)."

The new front office has repeatedly said that they will not be scared off by asking prices for studs like Alvarez and Beckham. I would be more surprised at this point if they DON'T take Alvarez.

Matusz is probably a safer bet... but they are actually pretty close. And Crow would sign for less, and be the golden boy from Missouri. It would be a great PR move, I don't know how much that will affect the decision. I know that either way, the Royals will have to make a tough decision on draft day. It's a good problem to have.

I agree that Wallace is a bit of a reach at 8, but then you look at his numbers and he's right up there. The only knock on him is his size and that can be worked on. Scouts like his hands and think he will make a decent first basemen, but note his gaudy lower half limits him. Either way, he's a consensus top power hitter in the draft who will need little to no time in the minors. He might be an overdraft but so was Matt LaPorta.

I agree with most of you guys in that Mayo is a little off here. I think that because the Rays have said that the like Posey, he'll go first. The pirates know they are building for the future, so they will probably take Beckham or Hosmer. Then the Royals will take either Matusz or Crow. The O's then have a dilema of 3 great players: Who ever the bucs didn't take, who ever the Royals didn't take and Pedro Alvarez.

Let's say the pirates take Hosmer and the Royals take crow. The O's are faced with Beckham, Matusz and Alvarez. I think they'll go with Beckham, his raw talent is the deciding factor. He's been compared to the Upton brothers. Then Sabean is left with the choice: Pitching or Hitting. He needs some good position players, and I think he sees this and he'll take Alvarez, because he finaly grew a brain.

I love draft talk. Know it's early, but it's never too soon to debate these things.

Gotta say, I had a visceral reaction, even though it's just a mock. As an O's fan, I've got my heart set on Alvarez and hate the idea of Matusz at 4. With a top 5 pick, I think you HAVE to go after a potential star and everything I've read suggests Matusz is more of a No. 2.

Maybe I'm just projecting my hopes, but I think TB goes with Posey, Pittsburgh drafts Matusz or Beckham, KC snags Crow and Alvarez falls to my O's, with T Beckham (if he's still there) or G Beckham rounding out the top 5. I could see SF taking one of the pitchers if they fall or even Scheppers, but they desperately need bats and already have their first baseman of the future in Villalona. I suppose they could go with a Hosmer, Smoak, or Alonso if they think they could move one to left field, but otherwise, I'm thinking they'll go with one of the SS options. Both seem to have star potential and look likely to stay put.

As far as Pittsburgh's big talk about ponying up for someone like Alvarez...I'm betting it's lip service. Don't get me wrong, I don't think they'll go way off the board with a Moskos-esque bargain pick, but if Beckham and Matusz are there, I think they can rationalize the pick to themselves and their fans while avoiding the enormous demands of Alvarez. The way I see it, if they take...say...Beckham, they can say, 'we got the top-rated player in the draft' and pay him over-slot, without breaking the bank. Just my take.

The Royals took a HS SS last year w/ Moustakas, so they're not picking Beckham. I actually think there's a better chance THEY take Alvarez than the Bucs, but w/ Crow or even Matusz still on the board, I'll bet they favor pitching this year. Though Alvarez may eventually move off third, I doubt he'll look kindly on being taken as a first baseman and Gordon's already a future A.S. there. First base is open, since Butler can't handle the gig, which could mean one of the more traditional 1B picks- Smoak or Hosmer- and if Posey drops, he'd tie the infield together nicely, but Crow's the hometown hero.

That leaves my O's with Alvarez!

I don't have a problem with Posey going in the top 5 or even first because I think he's more in the Mauer/Weiters mold vs. the Brandon Snyder/Powell/Mathis mold. When you get this quality of a catcher you don't pass it up. It's a lot easier finding a power hitting corner infielder, polished power pitcher, etc. Poseys don't come around every draft.

I think the Pirates will take Alvarez. They need the position player stardom more than anyone else and have made the statement they will go for it. I do see the O's getting Matusz or Tim Beckham if he's available but I think Matusz is their guy. I wouldn't be upset with that at all, he's a really good pitcher with really good stuff and could be an ace. The O's need the pitching more anyway.

I admit that all of that could be wishful thinking. Still, if Alvarez is gone, I think I'd prefer Baltimore take one of the Beckhams. I'm actually higher on Gordon after reading BA's projections and the O's seem set on a college player, so... Smoak wouldn't be awful either- he was a HS teammate of Wieters after all- but Hosmer's bat has more potential and we already have Rowell, who's been raking at High A lately (multi-hit games in 5 of his last 6) at age 19.

I think I'd even take Crow before Matusz. If everything breaks right, at least he's got ace potential. I'm not even sure Matusz is a frontline starter!

As such, I'd have to say my preferences for this pick go:

1. Alvarez
2. Hosmer (stick him at DH; whatever, his bat is awesome)
3. G. Beckham
4. T. Beckham
5. A. Crow
6. B. Matusz
7. J. Smoak

BTW- Weiters HAS been terrific at Frederick, but so has Arrieta! Kid's 3-0 with a 2.00 ERA A sub-1.00 WHIP and is leading the Carolina League in K's. Awesome draft...and we didn't have ANY picks between the number 5 overall and our fourth round selection!!! Erbe started awesome but has sucked lately, but Beato has pitched well for Frederick as well. And don't even get me started on Tillman at Double A!

The O's have really started to turn it around as an organization. Maybe it's due to Andy MacPhail, who was pretty lackluster with the Cubs. And while Matusz might not have Crow's stuff, he has really good command of his 4 pitch arsenal and will get to the bigs quickly.

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/events/draft_report/y2008/index.jsp?mc=matusz

O's need the pitching more???

Position young players/prospects:
Markakis
A. Jones
Weiters
Rowell
Reimold
Ummm...Snyder?!!
Henson, maybe?

Pitching
Cabrera
Loewen
Olson
Burres
Albers
Patton
Penn
Liz
Tillman
Spoone
Hernandez
Bergeson
Arrieta
Erbe
Beato
Bascom
Butler
Britton

Gotta disagree with you, gogopalehose.

Also, Ari... What are you talking about?! If it's between Beckham, Matusz, and Alvarez, there is NO DOUBT we'll take Alvarez. That ISN'T wishful thinking. If he's there, we're taking him. IF.

Every report I've heard has said that the O's would prefer a college player. The Beckham/Upton comp. has been pretty well laid to rest. He's nowhere near the Uptons were at this age. Matusz might give them pause...for a second. I admit there's a BIG chance that Alvarez is gone by 4, but I'll guarantee the Birds take him if he's still there.

I hear you PaleHose. I could see us taking Matusz if Alvarez is gone and I like that he's a lefty with good control and a nice arsenal, but I think we're still a ways off and need to go with the best player on the board with the pick...whoever that is. Particularly when you consider that pitching can be found later in the draft, I think I would favor a bat with such an early pick. I reserve the right to change my mind, however.

Of all the O's pitching prospects, they all have serious questions surrounding them and many of them are hit or miss guys. They have Jones, Markakis and Weiters all for a long time but they don't really have an ace. Guthrie is more a 2/3 guy and we all know about Cabrera. I think if they get Matusz it will be one less game per every five they will have to worry about outslugging the opposition.

I know that this is all about the top ten right now but my boys are at 12: the A's. I'm really hoping Gordan Beckham gets there, but his recent hot streak will probably make him a top 10 guy. If so I wouldn't mind if we snatched up Conor Gilliapse, out of Witchita State, who is a Bill Miller esque guy, and he's hitting .404 this season. It's ridiculous. I'd also be happy with RHP Tyson Ross, Cal, who is a local guy with great stuff.

Alright back to the top 10, my little top 10 mock there was showing you a little possible outcome, because face none of us know what's going to happen come draft day.

I'm surprised Smoak isn't higher on the list. I saw him play in at Stratford HS down near Charleston and at South Carolina. This kid is the real deal! Legitimate .300+ avg., 30+ HRs, and he is a switch hitter, not to mention his great defense at first.

From what I've read, while Tim Beckham's power is just a projection at this point, most of his tools are legit.

Crow has a better fastball than Matusz, but lesser secondary stuff and lesser control. Plus Matusz is a lefty. Crow doesn't have ace upside unless he improves his secondary stuff and control. Matusz is a little more of a sure thing for being a contributor and has 4 good pitches.

Yes, the Royals did take a HS SS last year (Moustakas). But I don't think he's really expected to last at SS, hence the potential logjam at 3rd. So Tim Beckam could still be a fit for them, though honestly I think they should take Matusz if he's available.

Man, is this draft stacked or what? As an O's fan, I'll be happy as long as we get one of Alvarez, T. Beckham, Smoak, Matusz, Crow, Hosmer, Posey or G. Beckham. :)

ChaosLex- good to hear from another O's fan. Don't know why you'd want Posey, though... Weiters seems pretty awesome and should be our catcher for a long time. You're right about the others- there's a fair amount of parity in this draft and the 6 (minus Posey) you mention are all good ones. Still, let's cross our fingers for Alvarez, eh?

PaleHose- I agree with you entirely about Guthrie being a 2/3, though, as a fan, I'd lean (slightly) toward a 2 because of his stuff and pedigree (former first rounder). Don't knock Cabrera- seventh straight quality start yesterday...I'm starting to believe. If he's turned a corner, he IS an ace-caliber arm. The question has always been control and maturity/poise. Not coincidentally, that's what this recent string of success has been built around. Consider: 0 walks vs. Boston; gave up 10 hits, but showed presence and poise to get out of every jam. Plus, he's always been durable (knock wood).

While he's hurt now, I'd also point out that Loewen is still just 24 and has the stuff to be a southpaw ace. He was our 2003(?) first rounder and early last year, looked like he'd turned the corner, himself. Then he got hurt and he's struggled with his control (again) since coming back. Based on what I saw from him in ST and the first few games of 2007, however, I think he's got it in him to get back to that point. If he can, we're talking about a bigger version of Bedard. I watched plenty of both guys when Erik was with us and Loewen's got similar quality stuff. Power lefties are a rare breed.

I'm not sure why you think ALL of the O's pitching prospects have serious questions. Chris Tillman? 20 yrs. old and killing Dbl A?! Everything I've read about this kid is glowing. Plus fastball and curve, developing change, solid FB control, great makeup and still has some projection. He looks like a fairly safe bet to become at least a No. 2 or 3 and could develop into an ace if the change REALLY develops.

I guess there are questions about Arrieta's velocity/control after his junior yr. of college, but he's been dominant thus far in his pro career- 3-0, 2.01 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and leads Carolina Lg in K's- and was projected to be an EARLY first rounder after his sophomore season; his mechanics just got screwy. His upside is as high as anyone's and I would argue he's a pretty safe bet as well.

Plus, Garrett Olson has already made the jump and, thus far, has had great success in the bigs. Good control, FB, curve, and change and a great feel for pitching. His stuff isn't as good as the other guys', but it's still pretty good (he was a Supplemental first rounder, after all) and he's another lefty. I think he projects more as a back of the rotation type, but I think he can pitch in the middle and based on the early returns, he's proving me right.

I agree that there are some big question marks with Liz (electric stuff, terrible control), Patton (labrum surgery...buh-bye starting role), Erbe (love him but he's so friggin' inconsistent- look at his April starts vs. his May starts this year...like day and night), Bergeson (where'd THIS come from), Bascom, and most of the rest.

Spoone should be a decent bet for mid-rotation considering his combination of stuff, control, and advancement. Hernandez, too has had success at every level, though I guess you could say his control needs work as well.

Even if you don't agree with me on Tillman and Arrieta, you gotta figure that law of averages favors a few of these kids making their mark in the bigs. You may be right about Matusz, but I'll still be crossing my fingers for Alvarez.

Obviously you would have to take Alvarez before Matusz, but I'm saying that if you don't then Matusz is a nice consolation prize. If he gets by the Pirates he's probably O's property but I think the Pirates will take him. Never know though, I'm dreaming for the unlikely Smoak myself.

milehigh78,

Sorry, I should've clarified that. :)

I like Posey because of his flexibility on the diamond. While we already have our stud catcher of the future (i.e., Wieters), I think Posey would make a fine 1B. Now that being said, he'd be at the bottom of my draft list, well behind Alvarez, T. Beckham, Smoak and Matusz.

Oh, I'd also rank Hosmer ahead of Posey as well.

The only thing that worries me about Alvarez and Hosmer is whether or not MacPhail would allow Jordan to draft them, given their connections with Boras.

Posey isn't built for 1B and would be really unproductive compared to other 1B's. Posey was a SS his first year of college, then his sophomore year he went to Catching, and now he is Catching and Closing the games for the Noles. So of course Posey is really flexible and will play any position you want but as a 1B he will not produce what you want from a 1B.

Why would McPhail disallow Jordan from picking a Boras client? Didn't stop him with Weiters and look how that's turned out so far! It's true that, before McPhail came to town, the O's had avoided Boras clients like the plague (think it had to do with the Wade Townsend pick, but not sure; worked out for the best anyway :)), but between Weiters AND Arrieta in last year's draft, I think the relationship is pretty healthy at the moment. Do you know something I don't? I haven't heard anything about a Boras bias for Baltimore (gotta love alliteration), but I also haven't really been looking...

Barroid_Bonds

I was unaware of that. Thanks for the info.

milehigh78

There are rumors (specifically, over on the Orioles Hangout boards) that had MacPhail been in office during last year's draft, he wouldn't have permitted Jordan to draft Wieters, due to his connections with Boras. Didn't MacPhail avoid just about all of Boras' clients during his stint with the Cubs? I hope the "source" I'm quoting is wrong, because I think it'd be crazy to avoid Alvarez or Hosmer, simply because they're represented by Boras. They might have crazy salary demands right now, but I'm sure they wouldn't balk at an offer similar to the one we made to Wieters.

That is very disturbing news. I really hope you're wrong. Otherwise, Bedard deal be damned; I'm off McPhail.