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On The Hot Seat: Giambi, Hafner, Sexson, Timlin

I love lists, and here's one from Peter Abraham at The Journal News that details who he thinks is in the hot seat.  In other words, who might be traded or released if current trends continue.  There are a number of managers and GMs on the list, but we like to focus on players here.  I'm going to go through the list and take stabs-in-the-dark whether a player is likely to be dealt or if they're just fluff for Mr. Abraham's article - and then we can discuss in the comments.

Jason Giambi - An announcer this year said that Giambi's defensive range extended from his right knee to his left knee.  As a fielder, he's decent with no range; however, as a hitter Giambi has never been considered a slow starter, as Abraham notes he is a career .281 hitter in April.  Still, like Carlos Delgado, Giambi has shown some recent spurts of life in his bat, and he does have 7 HR (one shy of the league leading 8) and 20 RBI.  PECOTA projects .230-24-73 with a .362 OBP.  If he can bring his average up, he'll be roughly on target for that projection.  If he can't, Abraham thinks the Yankees "might as well give someone else a chance."  So far, Joe Girardi's been supportive and patient calling the slump a product of bad luck.  Prediction: Staying put.

Travis Hafner - Abraham sees .256 with 27 HR in almost 700 ABs and wonders if the Indians would rather trade him to a team who believes he can turn it around than risk eating the remaining $56MM on Hafner's contract.  At 31, Hafner is an oddity.  Last year the slumping behemoth of a man saw his power drop by almost 20 HR.  He's currently continuing that trend with his OPS at a mere 640 and w/o a homerun since April 17 (!).  During an ESPN game, they were discussing how his timing - particularly with his front foot-plant - is off making it hard for him to get ahead of pitches.  So his problem seems both perceptual and mechanical - but why can't Pronk seem to correct this?  I'd be worried because his contract is slowly going from bothersome to disastrous.  PECOTA is not a believer, projecting .275-28-98 - hardly a rebound.  He's making $6.3MM this year and is on the books for another $70MM until 2013 (with a $2.75MM buyout in his last year).  Is there a batting coach out there on a big-market team that can fix this?  Wouldn't count on it.  Prediction: Staying put.

Richie Sexson
- In the Year of the Slumping First Basemen, Richie Sexson is not at all unlike Giambi or Delgado.  Abraham pulls no punches with Richie, calling him "one of the worst hitters in baseball during the last two seasons and shows no signs of coming around."  He's making $14MM this year, owed approx. $11.2MM more, and then he's surely done in Seattle.  I agree with Abraham that $11.2MM will "buy him another month or two" but the Mariners have options and I'd expect them to explore them by trading Sexson and eating some of the contract - maybe sooner rather than later as cutting your losses is (almost) acceptable practice this season.  Sexson has never been the hitter Delgado, Giambi, or Hafner have been and has been intolerably bad for just too long.  Prediction: Shipping off.

Mike Timlin
- Making $3MM this year, Abraham notes Timlin has allowed 9 runs in 7 1/3 IP and with a small contract would be an easy piece to move.  But I ask why?  Relief pitching is a commodity, and Timlin - known to the Red Sox as the captain of the bullpen - brings to the team a fair deal of intangible value, particularly as they integrate Craig Hansen and Justin Masterson into their relief corps.  7.1 IP is hardly a sample worth examining as he's basically still in spring-training-form.  Last year he had a 3.42 ERA in 50 IP and while he's not the 2.24 ERA Timlin that saved 13 games when Keith Foulke went down, he's serviceable.  If he fails to progress and becomes a liability then maybe the Red Sox will move him from mop up duty to another team.  Still, I doubt it.  Prediction: Staying put.

Let's hear your thoughts.  Who did Abraham forget?  Who disagrees?

By Nat Boyle


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Comments

Sexson has been hitting a little better the last week or so. He has had a lot of hard hit balls which is more than I can say in his disastrous plate appearances last year and the first month of this year.

I say he has at least another 2 months with this team. There isn't a sure fire replacement ready so that my buy him more time. We have Vidro and a raw Jeff Clement. Clement has been taking some reps at 1B recently but, since he has never played the position in his life, I don't see him notching any time at 1B this year. Vidro is just awful and is a worse option at 1B than Sexson is.

The only other 1B candidate in the system is Bryan Lahair. But he is a fringe prospect having a good year at AAA. If he is promoted, the Mariners are throwing in the towel on '08.

I actually can see Sexson finishing his contract with Seattle because of the lack of options at 1B. Norton would have been the best option to usurp Sexson but he stupidly shipped off to Atlanta. I guess the M's thought Miguel Cairo a better use of a roster spot. Gotta love those defensive types that can't hit a lick. Problem is, the Mariners already have Willie Bloomquist in charge of that role. Guys like that taking up half your bench doesn't make for rounding out a winning roster.

Those teams are all stuck with those guys. There's not a hitting coach in the world that can cure what's wrong with Delgado, Giambi, Hafner and Sexson: age. Time is catching up with them. Pure and simple.

seatle is really dumb. Last year, a team claimed sexson off waivers. Seatle could have let the team take him and pay his full salary. They would not have gotten any prospects in the deal, but they wouldn't have to deal with his salary. Someone please explain why they did not pull the trigger on this one

At what point to we not admit the real reason Travis Hafner is struggling?

He was a huge lumbering slugger, and now has seen his power drop drastically over the past two seasons. Any coincidence that substance testing has gotten substantially tougher during that period?

It's not like he's been a great hitter for a long time. He used his strength to make himself known.

If I hear "mechanical" adjustment one more time, I'm going to scream. Let's not start turning a blind eye again.

ahh. Good old Pete Abe. A Yankees beat blog writer with a balanced and insightful knowledge of which Red Sox pitcher is on the "hot seat." Unsurprisingly, Pete is dead wrong about Mike Timlin. Since all of his struggles have come against the Yankees (7/9 runs in 1.1/7.1 IP) it is hard to blame Pete for his errors. He does cover the Yankees and cater to Yankee fans, right. The fact that Yankee's goat Jason Giambi has 2 homeruns off Timlin is automatic reason to put him on the hot seat.
On the same token, the Red Sox have to make a roster move today. I'm guessing they don't DFA Timlin and instead option Hansen.

As EricSanSan pointed out a couple of posts earlier there is a chemical reason that these guys are not performing (I'll throw the other two guys in). No amount of tutoring will be able to correct them to previous performance standards. Isn't it amazing how some "sluggers" are nothing more than puffed-up needle cushions with warning track power?

You guys are SO totally right. The evidence that all three of those guys were juicing is so damning. Because before substance testing came along recently, no lumbering, power-hitting first baseman ever went through a slump. I mean, how are these writers ignoring this mountain of obvious evidence staring them in the face? It's a travesty.

Where are you seeing any plans for Justin Masterson to move into the bullpen? He has been a starter his entire career and clearly provides more value to the organization in that role.

As for Timlin, despite his struggles he will remain with the Sox. In fact, I'd be surprised if he doesn't retire at the end of this season (if not during the season). I was surprised he came back to pitch one more because I was certain a year ago that he was nearly done.

"At what point to we not admit the real reason Travis Hafner is struggling?"

I thought about this yesterday, and although I am not accusing him of anything, I wondered about whether he was using performance enhancers. I was watching the Indian/Yankee series and started to wonder, whats wrong with Pronk? I was ready to chalk last year up to a fluke, because in his 3 years prior, he was one of the elite all around hitters in the game. Is there some kind of nagging injury that he has been trying to play through? This is where I need somebody like darkstar, because I dont see enough of the Tribe to really know what the problem is. Shouldnt be age though, seeing as how he is only 30 years old. I know he he missed around 20-30 games a year from 04-06, but last year he stayed on the field more and produced less. I really dont know.

As for Delgado and Giambi, both seem to be coming around. Now I am not saying Delgado is off the hook yet, but he has been swinging the bat extremely well in the last 2 weeks or so. He also has been dropped down to the 7th spot, so the Mets arent relying on his stick like they were when the season started. I thought Delgado was finished, but maybe he does have another productive year or two left, because he looks completely different recently. His swing seems to have gotten shorter, he looks to have eliminated a lot of the body movement when in the box (which caused him to constantly be off balance and get fooled by breaking balls, and also prevented him from doing anything at all with an outside pitch), and is trusting his hands, which arent what they once were, but its still a much better approach. He also looks to be making a conscious effort to drive the ball to the opposite field and up the middle, instead of swinging for the fences, and since he has started to use that approach, he is starting to hit more homeruns. What it comes down to is this, if Delgado is a good teamate and doesnt mind batting 7th, he can still help this team. If he admits to himself that he is not what he once was, but realizes that he can still be a productive hitter by using the entire field, he can still be a valuable asset to the Mets this year, and he should still get ample opportunities to produce runs, batting behind Wright, Beltran, Church, and Alou.

“Is there some kind of nagging injury that he has been trying to play through? This is where I need somebody like darkstar, because I dont see enough of the Tribe to really know what the problem is. Shouldnt be age though, seeing as how he is only 30 years old.”

The more and more it continues, the more and more I do think injury is behind it. As everyone is able to see if they watch his games, it looks like a mechanical problem. And really, how in the F*ing world can some see a blatant mechanical difference in a player and say “well obviously its steroids”? “He is approaching the ball differently, so its obvious he stopped taking PEDs” ~ how does that make sense?

Anyway, back to the point ~ what cant be forgotten is the fact that he has struggled with shoulder problems in his past. Then, he broke his hand in the last month of 2006, had leg problems in August of last year and was bothered by shoulder problems again this past preseason… Factor that against the obviously visible mechanical difference, and its only logical to think we are probably looking at a player who is constantly playing with some sort of pain or discomfort which is forcing him to make the adjustments that lead to the difference in his swing. The mental aspect probably needs to be taken into account a bit as well, as his struggles have lead to him looking like he is trying to do too much to compensate, further compounding the problem.

Lastly, the player he has most resembled for his entire career is Boog Powell ~ a player who didn’t take well to turning 30…

Dark-

Think you're a little too hasty in dismissing the PED thang. I understand your point, but there's a big mother of an elephant in the room and a lot of "sluggers" whose numbers are plummeting. I'm not saying Hafner IS one of the 'roiders, but he fits the profile enough that I'd hesitate before dismissing it out of hand. And just to play devil's advocate for a moment...have you considered that perhaps the mechanical problems (if that is indeed the issue) might be due to adjustments made...because of something missing from his morning syringe. Just throwing it out there. Mechanical problems could still have roots in the PED scandal.

As for Sexson...how can Tim say he's going to be moved? Sure, I think the M's would gladly eat some salary, but no GM in his right mind would even consider signing that big galoot. Granted, the Pirates traded for Matt Morris last year- evidence that there are suckers born every minute- but I just can't see anyone taking him on...even if Seattle paid his ENTIRE contract. At this point, Sexson is basically going up there, closing his eyes, and swinging as hard as he can. And if he's not...he should start. He couldn't do any WORSE.

“I understand your point, but there's a big mother of an elephant in the room and a lot of "sluggers" whose numbers are plummeting. I'm not saying Hafner IS one of the 'roiders, but he fits the profile enough that I'd hesitate before dismissing it out of hand.”

…See, I just don’t see logic in looking at everyone with the “you are probably a juicer and I think I can prove it” eye ~ esp in the face of other factors. To me, thats like saying “Jeff Bagwell was obviously a user because he struggled and retired when they began testing…” Believe it or not, sluggers can have problems outside of steroids. Witch-hunts never solve anything, and generally bring about more problems then anything else…

BTW ~ more pitchers and speedsters have been caught using PEDs than sluggers. Why is that if it’s the power outage that is the visible indication of steroids being taken out of the game? How about all the pitchers having horrible control problems, can we call all of them PED users too? Verlander, CC, Hill, etc ~ obviously all juicers…

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