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« Kenny Rogers, Others Placed On Waivers | Main | Many Marlins Due Raises »
Elias Ranking Update
Eddie Bajek has been doing great work reverse-engineering the Elias rankings over at his blog, Detroit Tigers Thoughts. He's now ranked catchers, first basemen, outfielders, and designated hitters for both leagues.
An explanation of free agent draft pick compensation can be found here. For a team to get draft picks, they need to offer arbitration to their free agent and then have him decline and sign elsewhere. So it either has to be a player they wouldn't mind having on a one-year deal, or a player who is a lock for a multiyear contract.
Looking at Eddie's (unfinished) list, the following free agents are Type A or B and likely to net draft picks: Mark Teixeira (Braves), Raul Ibanez (Mariners), Milton Bradley (Rangers), Manny Ramirez (Dodgers), Pat Burrell (Phillies), Adam Dunn (Diamondbacks), and maybe Carlos Delgado (Mets). If, say, the Mariners re-sign Ibanez, the cost is his new contract as well as the two draft picks they could've had.
Several high-salary solid players probably will not be offered arbitration and therefore won't land draft picks for the losing team: Ivan Rodriguez (Yankees), Bobby Abreu (Yankees), Garret Anderson (Angels), Ken Griffey Jr. (White Sox), and Jason Giambi (Yankees). Hard to say how things will unfold with Brian Giles, who is a borderline Type A if the Padres decline his option. The Yankees won't want to risk being stuck with Rodriguez, Abreu, or Giambi at their '07 salaries or higher, so they probably won't offer arbitration.
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I think the Yankees would gladly keep Abreu for 1 year at his current salary. It's the years - not the $ - they would be afraid of with Bobby.
Posted by: Ghost of Thurman | August 26, 2008 at 10:20 AM
While I agree that the Yankees wont offer Giambi arbitration at the risk of him accepting it, I definately see them offering Abreu arbitration, knowing he'll be offered a multi-year deal somewhere.
i could also see them offering Pudge arbitration, knowing he wont accept on teh basis that he'll want to be a starting catcher somewhere, rather than make more cash to sit the bench in NY.
Posted by: TurnTwo | August 26, 2008 at 10:22 AM
I do not understand why everyone assumes Ibanez will be offered arbitration. Even if Seattle decides not to re-sign him, he is no guarantee to find a better offer than arbitration from the Mariners. He probably will, but it is hardly a sure thing. He is 36 and plays atrocious defense, plus the signing team will lose draft picks.
Posted by: mymrbig | August 26, 2008 at 10:34 AM
i wonder wether paul byrd can once again be the last type b fa like he was in 2007
Posted by: loeres | August 26, 2008 at 10:58 AM
Joe P. also mentioned that to me about Abreu. I can see your point. Pudge, I would be surprised personally.
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | August 26, 2008 at 11:02 AM
IIRC, Yanks don't have a starting catcher for 2009. Isn't Posada taking over at DH/1b because of health concerns?
Pudge probably won't get arbitration.
Posted by: Meoveryouok | August 26, 2008 at 11:19 AM
Will Delgado get to be a Type A?
Posted by: Chris | August 26, 2008 at 11:24 AM
Just looking at those rankings shows how screwed up the system is. It's embarrassing that this is the best we can do with all the great statistical measurements available today.
Posted by: bjsguess | August 26, 2008 at 11:26 AM
@ Chris
If you click the link you can see that Delgado is barely holding on to a Type B classification.
Posted by: bjsguess | August 26, 2008 at 11:27 AM
bobby abreu is the perfect summation of the yankees' recent season: over-rated, waa-aay overpaid; proof that stats don't always add up on the field.
i hope they bring him back.
Posted by: crash | August 26, 2008 at 11:32 AM
Teixeira's compensation goes to the Angels, right?
Posted by: trilambda | August 26, 2008 at 11:56 AM
There's basically no chance the Padres offer Giles arbitration. Their option on him for next year is effectively $6 million (since it has a $3 million buyout). That's a good deal for the Padres, so if they buy out Giles they're cutting payroll for next year. Plus, Giles would make more than $6 million in arbitration, and Giles would probably accept arbitration if offered because he loves San Diego and wants to stay here.
Posted by: genericpadsfan | August 26, 2008 at 01:00 PM
I actually think that Omar and the Wilpons pick up Delgado's option. If they don't, it costs them a $4 million buyout. If they do, it costs them $8 million more, for a total of $12 million. Mike Carp isn't ready for the majors yet, IMO, and Nick Evans and Daniel Murphy are better suited for a LF platoon (again, IMO).
Posted by: metssincekindergarten | August 26, 2008 at 04:06 PM
Bobby Abreu is an AWFUL fielder. In 2008, he's been at least 20 runs worse than the average right fielder according to STATS and BIS zone ratings.
Let's say Bobby is +2 wins on offense. You take away those two wins with his fielding, plus another half-win for playing a corner outfield position (not that important). He's a below-average player these days.
Posted by: Sky | August 29, 2008 at 04:33 PM