K-Rod May Not Require Five Years

A 4/52 deal with a 5th year at $14M team vesting option based off performance seems reasonable for the Angels. A 4/60 would be a big mistake. Anything beyond 4 years would be a mistake.

"Rodriguez told Mike DiGiovanna he'd consider a four-year deal with a fifth-year option."

-because he won't be getting a 5yr deal with anyone unless some GM loses his cognitive abilities and gives him that deal. Well, I could see the Mets giving him that deal, with the Johan Santana contract and all (and the fact that Brian Sabean probably won't be closer-shopping this offseason).

4/60 is still absurdly ridiculous for a guy who will probably pitch 80 innings/yr. 60MM for 320 innings approx. I still say he becomes a Met, Tiger, or stays an Angel. I hope for the latter.

even a 4 year deal isn't a good idea. k-rod just goes up there and throws as hard as he can. arms don't last long that way. just ask eric gagne how his arm fared over a <4 year span. Mariano Rivera is the exception to the closer rule, and coincidently he doesn't throw hard.

Mariano averaged about 95 when he came up. I think now he's down to 91-92ish.

Gagne's fall has nothing to do with how hard he threw. He was only good when he was on steroids. Multiple arm surgeries and the post steroid body breakdown killed his career.

While I am cautious with Rodriguez it is important to realize that he has already adjusted his pitching style. Originally a two pitch pitcher, K-Rod has developed several other plus pitches. I would expect him to evolve as he loses some zip off his fastball. There are plenty of good relievers who started as flame throwers but then transitioned to other pitching strategies.

And while people have always complained about his motion, so far he has been rock solid on the injury front. The fact is that some people have what appear to be awkward motions. I think that K-Rod has enough of a history now that it isn't fair to peg him as an unusually high injury risk.

"even a 4 year deal isn't a good idea. k-rod just goes up there and throws as hard as he can. arms don't last long that way. just ask eric gagne how his arm fared over a <4 year span. Mariano Rivera is the exception to the closer rule, and coincidently he doesn't throw hard."

One, Rivera was a flame thrower when he came up and still chucks it at 93-94 if he wants to. Two, Gagne's problems have to do with injury, not hard throwing. Three, have you read any of the decent articles on K-Rod? He is one of the most mechanically sound pitchers out there. He looks like he is throwing wildly, but is actually throwing in a very mechanically sound way. He has never had elbow or shoulder problems and his ankle problems were helped by his modified landing that has also improved his movement and control.

"BJ, true about him never having an injury, but what do you think about this guys massive loss in velocity at age 26? He probably lost 5-6 mph off his fastball already."

He hasn't lost anywhere near that. He was throwing 94 yesterday with ease. The reason you see a 2-3 MPH drop from him is because he is actually using his fastball to throw strikes now, as opposed to the old days when it was a show me pitch to get hitters off balance for one of the curveballs. Further, he is pitching more to contact, which as Greg Maddux will tell you, requires throwing a little slower to get more downward action.

"when he's not getting k's, he's rather sporadic."

No kidding..It's funny that he's the only pitcher in baseball that that applies too."

I'm not saying he's the only pitcher in baseball that applies to. He is getting very elite money for a closer. There is a possibility he will be getting more money than Mariano, a future HOF. Elite money means elite expectations.

Joelcards- Except that K-Rod is not controlling the ball better. He's controlling it worse, as seen by his peripherals (namely his WHIP and BB/9) since 2006.

Why is the WHIP up?
Why is the ERA up?
Why is the K/BB down?
Why is the BB/9 up?

I'm going to agree with AA on this one. His fastball does dip into the low 90's. That said, he can definitely dial it up when needed to the mid 90's.

That's my point though - when he came up he had to rely on a fastball / slurve. Now he can mix it up so much more by focusing on changing speeds. He is going through a transitional period and I expect he will continue to have some bumps along the way. But, once he sharpens his control on the softer stuff ... watch out.

That said, he is becoming a much more complete pitcher. By expanding his options he hedges against some regression in velocity. Still doesn't mean that I like am eager to sign him for top dollar and lots of years. His rising rates in WHIP and decrease in K's is enough to give someone reason to pause before giving him a record deal.

"If I am paying 15 mil for a closer, I don't want a guy who is pitching to contact. I want a guy who strikes out every guy who comes to the plate."

So, I take it Greg Maddux had no value to you as an "elite pitcher?" How about Eck? Not an "elite closer" because he had similar K rates to K-Rod and pitched to contact? You know why Eck was successful? He pitched to contact and didn't walk anyone.

"I'm not saying he's the only pitcher in baseball that applies to. He is getting very elite money for a closer. There is a possibility he will be getting more money than Mariano, a future HOF. Elite money means elite expectations."

He has more saves than anyone else since he became a closer. If that isn't elite, I don't know what is.

AA- K-Rod is elite. There is no doubt about it. That saves total is impressive, although I hold the conviction that if a few other closers had that may opportunities, they'd have as many saves if not more. However, some of those peripherals are not "elite" For example, Barry Zito winning a Cy Young is elite, but his peripherals in several of his pre-FA years? Not elite. He even had great W-L records.

Saves are about as effective as wins in determining pitcher quality (see Matt Cain and Jake Peavy 2008).

K-Rod is elite, but K-Rod getting 15MM/yr is just bad news for whoever is stupid enough to sign him (probably Mets/Angels). You can build most of an entire decent bullpen for 15MM/yr, maybe slightly more. A Mets bullpen with K-Rod will still have holes.

""If I am paying 15 mil for a closer, I don't want a guy who is pitching to contact. I want a guy who strikes out every guy who comes to the plate."

So, I take it Greg Maddux had no value to you as an "elite pitcher?" How about Eck? Not an "elite closer" because he had similar K rates to K-Rod and pitched to contact? You know why Eck was successful? He pitched to contact and didn't walk anyone."

First of all, you left out the rest of the quote to strengthen your argument. Hmph. Second of all, if you are asking me if I want Greg Maddux closing games for me for 15 MM per, the answer is absolutely not, never. And Eck was great, yeah, but he is not the rule, but the exception. And if you are asking me if I could recreate a Dennis Eckersly in his prime and pay him 15 dollars to close for the 2009 Mets, would I do it? The answer would be absolutely not.

But anyway, the two guys you used to make your points are a starting pitcher, which has no relevance on this debate, and one of the best closers ever, a guy comparable to John Smoltz. These guys don't come around everyday. I still don't really see what you are getting at.

But then again, this is AA, a guy who thinks that every LAD or LAA player is the best player ever, and who takes personal offense if one of them is put down. I think K-Rod is great, but at the same time, I think he is overated, not a top 5 closer, and absolutely not worth anything close to 5/75. Don't get your panties all in a bunch.

Meoveryouok... Ok, whatever you say. I guess your attempt at wit went unnoticed. I assure you though, I have absolutely no problem with Luis Ayala closing, none at all. I even said during the trade deadline I would prefer a guy like Ayala over Street or Fuentes. Cheaper and similar production. Relief pitchers are a dime a dozen. If you pay huge bucks for one you are just a sucker. 10 or 11 mil is one thing, or even 15 mil per for 2 years. But 5/75 is a joke. You give me K-Rod for 4/40 you have a done deal. Try to give him to me for 5/75 and it is a different story. Kind of like if you give me Santana as my ace I will be just thrilled, if you force me to give him 7 years at 20 mil per to be my ace I will tell you that is a huge disaster waiting to happen.

Melonis, I could see the Mets, Angels, Tigers, who need him more then anybody, including the Mets, maybe a darkhorse like the Cubs if Wood has a bad playoff run, maybe even Texas, who is capable of jumping into these discussions. Who knows, maybe Sabean makes a run at him trying to win the NL West next year. If only the Mets and angels are in on it, I will tell you this though, K-Rod will be tremendously disapointed in his best offers if those are the only two serious players.

"And if you are asking me if I could recreate a Dennis Eckersly in his prime and pay him 15 dollars to close for the 2009 Mets, would I do it? The answer would be absolutely not."

So, are you saying you would prefer Rivera to Eckersley? Or are you saying you would not pay any closer $15 million? I get the sentiment if it is the latter, but obviously the market can bear such a contract.

"and one of the best closers ever, a guy comparable to John Smoltz."

I am laughing at this one. Smoltz was a closer for only 3 1/2 years, partly out of necessity and partly out of a need to rebuild his arm strength after Tommy John. He was excellent, but you do realize the guy had a higher ERA than K-Rod has had in any season as a closer in all but one of those years, right?

"But then again, this is AA, a guy who thinks that every LAD or LAA player is the best player ever"

Ugh, you don't get it, do you? You know why there is an East Coast bias in baseball reporting? Because most of the people who write about baseball are from the East Coast, and the rest are Cubs fans. Naturally, since I am from Los Angeles, I am going to be more aware of the teams and players in my hometown than in other places. That goes for every single person who gives a damn about a sport, no matter who they are.

I think Albert Pujols is the best player in baseball, and the best in my generation. Last I checked, he played halfway across the country from the LAA or LAD. I think Ichiro is the best defensive outfielder and best leadoff man in baseball. Wait a sec, he plays for a big rival of the LAA. What now?

The problem with so many of the smarky (to use an old pro wrestling term) fans of baseball these days is that they are way too interested in mathmatics and don't watch the game. I think stats are great, and I look at them every chance I get, but I also like to see **gasp, horror** intangible qualities in a player. So many times I have seen people use stats to try and defend their crappy team's crappy season, while they pay absolutely no attention to what goes on in the game. No wonder so many people find this sport boring, they think it is all stat heads.

So, you can take Joe Nathan who is 8 years older, not nearly as entertaining and actually has a lower (by a hair) save percentage than Frankie and banty about numbers as long as you want to claim I am biased. Which one you think sells more tickets? Which one entertains the fans more? Oh, and which one is more effective at getting his job done if the fractions of a percentage point that you seem so interested in actually favor my "biased" pick?

"4/40 is unrealistic as is 5/75. If you have the money, and can find somewhere in between those two numbers, Krod is not a bad signing."

The Angels already offered something like 4/52, so I think that's where all talk starts on the club end with him. I agree that the number should be something between those two. Perhaps 4/55 with a vesting/mutual option

And yeah, 4/40 might be unrealistic, but that dooesn't mean that is intelligent to bid any higher. That is what I would offer him, and when he walks away for a bigger offer, so be it.

"AA, you can go on with your east coast bias all day"

Did you even read what I wrote? Can you even comprehend the context?

"If Mariano was in his prime, I would pay him 15 million per year. But he is a robot, not even a real person so it is a different situation. He never gets hurt and he never blows a save. Ever"

And of course you miss the point I made in the other thread about save percentages.

K-Rod and Rivera are both at 90% (since K-Rod became a full time closer and since they started measuring SVO for Rivera). Papelbon and Nathan are at 89%. The reality is, those are really the numbers that matter.