Offseason Outlook: Texas Rangers

Tim, just wondering: is the reason you did not include Jarrod Saltalamacchia on their 2009 roster indicate you strongly believe he will be traded this offseason, or just an honest mistake?

I do agree that they will move one of their catchers for a pitcher, although Laird would be the one who will go.

I don't follow the Rangers that much, but I would say that they're my #2 team so here's what I would do.

#1. Milton Bradley - He's had some health problems but when he's played he's been pretty nasty. He's earned a "multi-year" contract

#2. Hank Blalock - When he's healthy he's good. I'd see if he'd take a cheaper contract if his option was declined. Either way, I'd have him at 1B when the season started.

#3. Third Base - I'm not really clear on this situation. Let the young guys slug it out for the spot or maybe sign Casey Blake. Like I said, I don't have alot of info here.

#4. Pitching - Get a reliable starter and 'pen arm. Maybe trade one of the surplus cathers or even sign a FA. Lowe fits with just about every team this offseason and a reliable bullpen arm or two here would make a big difference.

Like I said, I don't follow the Rangers too much but I've always liked them. Just looking on the surface, I don't think what I've said is too unreasonable.

Texas needs to save it's offensive prospects for pitching trades. It's going to be darn near impossible to lure a FA pitcher into that park. The FA's that they have signed to pitch have generally been downright awful.

On the flip side, Texas presents a unique opportunity for offensive players to come on short-term contracts and boost their value. Bradley is just the most recent example of that.

Most importantly, they have to figure out how to dump M. Young's contract. That might end up being the equivalent of the Zito contract before all is said and done. They are on the hook for $16m/year until 2013. Considering how Young's OPS has dropped from 898 (2005), 815 (2006), 784 (2007), 728 (2008) he is just looking to be an awful player in the years to come. Throw in that his defense is Jeter-esque (living off reputation not off performance) and you have a real recipe for disaster.

Can Chris Davis legitimately stick at 3B?

Milton Bradley does not deserve a multi-year deal, and any GM that gives him one is nuts. At the very most, if I were a GM, I'd give Bradley the same contract Frank Thomas got from the Jays - 2/18 with a 10m option that vests based on PA. If he hits the open market, Bradley is definitely somebody the Jays should be players on - he won't require the massive commitment and methinks Cito could handle his personality - I'd never recommend it Gibbons was still around.

I highly doubt this, but if Young's salary is as bad as you say, I'm sure the Giants would consider trading their poor contract (Zito) for Young's.

bradley should be the top priority. he's earned a multiyear contract this season

blalock should be cut. at third they could probably get away with moving kinsler over there, young to second, and trying elvis andrus at shortstop. if that fails then i bet they could use arias as a stopgap for him.

and i'm all for dealing salty and max ramirez for pitching help. putting together a package for a grienke, cain, bucholz would be a nice coup.

after that, i think they should trade padilla while his value is fairly decent. they could probably swing a decent prospect for him. then i'd throw about 20 a year for 4 (maybe 5) years or so at sabathia to come in and be an ace. then go out and sign a proven set up man as well. my theory there is the set up guy could have some closing experience and mentor wilson a little bit. the kid has good stuff but has a tendency to overthrow. he could use someone to get advice from (besides eddie guardado). don't forget about guys like matt harrison and neftali feliz either. here's what i'm thinking for the 09 squad

sabathia
millwood
grienke/cain/bucholz/whoever they get
feliz/mccarthy/harrison for the last two slots

wilson
proven set up guy (is wheeler still going to be a free agent?)
francisco
feldman
rupe
benoit
a lefty they can find somewhere in their system

kinsler 3rd
young 2nd
hamilton cf
bradley dh
davis 1b
cruz rf
murphy lf
teagarden c
andrus ss

and then arias, boggs, laird, catalanotto on the bench

input?

"Can Chris Davis legitimately stick at 3B?"

I believe, if memory serves correctly, he was drafted as a 3B. However, his defense there is suspect, as he tends to struggle there a bit. But I mean, Miguel Cabrera managed to stick in 3rd for a while, and his D is awful. I know Davis and Miggy are not even close at all skill-wise, but I just thought I'd point that out.

In the long-run, however, I don't believe he'd be their solution at 3rd.

Will Andrus be up in the beginning of 2009? I thought he was projected to be up mid to late 2009 but here by 2010.

that's the projection, they may want a stopgap shortstop for the time being. andrus had a pretty good year at AA though, so i would think he'd get a look, if not a shot at ss in spring training

I do agree with others that moving a catcher (or 2) is necessary. Flip two of them for a couple of young arms. I think a guy like Bailey would be an ideal target. Could Bailey be had for Laird? Then Salty for Buccholz?

That would be a great start to a high upside rotation.

Bradley and his fragile body are redundant due to the much cheaper presence of Max Ramirez.

I hope Feldman and Harrison aren't part of the rotation next year. They have to have the weakest arms I've seen. I don't see any difference between Harrison and John Koronka and John Rheinecker, except Harrison is way more overhyped than they were when they started out. Talk about flutterballers.

I don't know why, but McCarthy became extremely injury-prone only after he came to us. He's a write-off.

That leaves guys like Hurley, Mendoza, Loe, Tommy Hunter, Doug Mathis etc. as rotation candidates. Ugh. Hurley got pounded two years in a row in OKC, especially getting killed this year. Hurley looked good after only being called up due to injuries. I'd be surprised if Hurley didn't make the rotation this year. After that, it's pretty clear we need to go outside the organization for viable starting prospects until Feliz and Holland and Kiker etc. are ready.

I think only one of Loe and Littleton will be in the bullpen as we need a 2nd lefty. A.J. Murray might offer the versatility of being a lefty specialist as well as being able to start in a pinch.

"McPerson is another, now he has been poor, but there were times when he could have brought back a nice return and I feel Brandon Wood is heading that way as well."

Yes McPherson was poor for the Angels, but how can you blame a guy for having a injury-plagued back. He was dominating the minors for years and the Angels thought he would be a superstar... He still can (by the way) since he is sill quite young... if you didn't know, he is in the Marlins organization and hit 40 HRs in AAA this year.
As for Wood, he is starting to hit the ball consistently... he cut down on his strikeouts (something McPherson was unable to do)... and is hitting for power too, so I think he's adjusting to MLB pitching very well. We could see him as soon as next year in the starting lineup.

"There have been a few bullpen guys and starters that could have brought back something as well"

Name them... cuz I cant think of any. I see Arredondo who has a 1.54 ERA, Bulger who has had dominating outings, Jepsen who has a 1.69 ERA in limited play, and as for starters, Santana, Saunders & Weaver are a combined 43-23 with a 3.65 ERA. That seems solid to me.

I think the Rangers have to make a decision on which way they want to go next year. Do they add a SP or two via FA and try for the playoffs next year, or do they try and move some of these big contracts and trade for younger players and look towards 2011 or 2012?

I think whichever way you go, there are two things that have to be done-let Bradley walk and try and trade Blalock. Bradley has hit very well this year, but I wouldn't want to bet a multi-year deal on him staying healthy. Nelson Cruz should be able to approximate Bradley's production, and for less than 1/10th the cost of this season(and like 1/20th of what Bradley would cost next year).

Blalock I'd try and move to a team in need of a 3B, like maybe Minnesota? I wouldn't expect a ton back for him, maybe a guy like Glen Perkins? Anyway, if I couldn't get a pitcher back for Blalock, I'd probably buyout his option for the $250K required. So what to do at 3B? Well, you could either go for a platoon of Vazquez/Duran(pass) or look for a 3B via a trade. I'd target Edwin Encarnacion in a deal with the Reds. Laird won't be enough on his own, but if you pair him with one of the many C+/B- type prospect the Rangers have, I think you could get a deal done.

That would set your infield as Davis/Kinsler/Young/EE from first to third, not a bad group at all. Behind the plate I'd stick with Teagarden as the catcher, he's the best defender of the 4 C's the Rangers have, plus he's got enough pop to make him useful. Ramirez I'd keep as the backup C/1B and I'd get him some work at DH as well, ideally 350-400 AB's next year. So what to do with Salty? Move him to the Red Sox seems to be the most popular idea, and I don't disagree with it. I know that Buchholz is the prize everyone seems to want, but I'd rather grab a couple of guys in a deal instead. Justin Masterson is a pitcher that is made for Texas, he generates TONS of groundballs, and that means no chance for a HR. He's definitely someone I'd want in a deal, along with probably Josh Reddick and maybe a lower tier guy. Masterson can step into the rotation as probably your #4 starter, or the #5 spot, depending on if you got a guy like Perkins for Blalock.

So what do you do with the rest of the rotation? Millwood is stuck here for 2 more years probably, until his contract runs out. Padilla.....I think could be moved this offseason. He's got one year left at $12M with an option for 2010 and a $1.75M buyout. I think if you cover the buyout amount in a deal you could move him. Why move him? Well, so you can pickup 2 pitchers on the FA market that should both be much better-Ben Sheets and Derek Lowe. I know, Sheets has the injury history, but I'd rather pay him $15M a year for 25-28 very good starts than pay Padilla $12M for 28-30 average starts. Sheets slots in as your #1, with Millwood and Lowe following in some order. Lowe is like Masterson in that he can generate lots of groundballs and limit HRs. So you'd have Sheets/Lowe/Millwood/Perkins/Masterson. You can compete with type of rotation.

The infield is squared away already(although paying Young $16M a year thru 2012 will suck), so how about the OF? We know that Hammy has CF locked down for now(eventually a move to RF will happen), and with Bradley gone RF is open for the taking. Nelson Cruz should be able to replicate Bradley's numbers so that is taken care of. LF? I'd go with Murphy vs. righties and either Byrd or Boggs vs. lefties(depends on if you want to pay Byrd $2m+). With Ramirez getting some AB's at C and DH, you're going to need someone else to cover the DH AB's, so bring up John Mayberry. He kills lefties, posting an OPS of 1.094 vs. them this year in AA and AAA, and his MLE vs. LHP for this year puts him at an OPS of .925-definitely worthwhile. He can get some at bats vs. RHP too, but with him and either Byrd or Boggs the OF is covered from the bench and you've got guys to cover the DH spot. I'd go with Arias and Duran to round out the bench, cheap INF options that cover your bases.

For the pen, I'd slide Harrison to LR, Nippert would be groomed to close, so work him in the 7th with Wilson, Francisco, and Benoit for late innigs too. Loe and maybe Feldman round it out.

McCarthy needs a change of scenery, along with Hurley. I like Hurley, but he's too HR proned to fit here, Maybe flip him to SD for a RP? With all the talented arms in the system(Holland, Feliz, Ramirez, Kiker, Main, Beaven, Poveda, etc), moving Hurley and McCarthy won't hurt.

Well, I am a little embarrassed to admit I actually read your entire post Gatling, but the one thing I found ridiculous is that you naturally assume that Nelson Cruz "can replicate Bradley's numbers". Are you for real? Do you realize that Bradley has a .439 OBP? .439! That is absurd. On top of that he is slugging .565, and when you put those two numbers together you get an OPS of .1004!

I will write you a personal apology note if you can tell me the last time a player with roughly 440 AB's and a career Major League OBP, Slugging %, and OPS of .282/.385/.667 essentially doubled his numbers in a full-time role? In case you are confused those are Nelson Cruz's stats in his combined 3 Major League seasons. WOW!

rangers need to let bradley walk, he had a good year but was always hurt. get cruz and borbon into the outfield and wait on the young pitchers unless you can land a young ace like C.C.