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« Another Year For Ricciardi | Main | White Sox Discussing Extension With Kenny Williams »
The Reds are next in our Offseason Outlook series. Their probable commitments for 2009:
C - Ryan Hanigan - $400K
C - Wilkin Castillo - $400K
1B - Joey Votto - $400K
2B - Brandon Phillips - $4.75MM
SS - Alex Gonzalez - $5.375MM
3B - Edwin Encarnacion - $450K+
IF - Andy Phillips - $440K
IF - Jeff Keppinger - $403K
LF - Chris Dickerson - $400K
CF - Ryan Freel - $4MM
RF - Jay Bruce - $400K
OF - Norris Hopper - $403K
OF -
SP - Aaron Harang - $11MM
SP - Bronson Arroyo - $9.5MM
SP - Edinson Volquez - $400K
SP - Johnny Cueto - $400K
SP - Micah Owings - $402K
RP - Francisco Cordero - $12MM
RP - Jared Burton - $400K
RP - Mike Lincoln - $550K+
RP - Bill Bray - $400K
RP - Gary Majewski - $400K+
RP - Ramon Ramirez - $400K
RP - Nick Masset - $400K
Non-tender candidates: Matt Belisle - $1.25MM+
Other commitments: Yonder Alonso - $400K
Rotation candidates: Daryl Thompson - $400K, Homer Bailey - $400K, Ramon Ramirez - $400K
The Reds have roughly $54.5MM committed before arbitration raises to Encarnacion, Lincoln, and Majewski. After that, they'll still be under $60MM (with a fifth of the payroll going to the closer). The Reds entered this season with a $74.1MM payroll, so they might have money to spend.
The Reds had a below-average offense this year, and the losses of Adam Dunn and perhaps Jerry Hairston Jr. may make things worse. On the other hand, the Reds won't give 1,200 plate appearances to Keppinger, Corey Patterson, and Paul Bako again.
Top two positions of concern: shortstop and center field. After missing all of this season due to a knee compression fracture, can Gonzalez return to his '07 form? For lack of a better option, I have Freel penciled in at center. However, he's injury-prone and already on thin ice. Maybe Drew Stubbs deserves a look. Or the Reds could sign a free agent, maybe someone like Jim Edmonds (who can be useful if he doesn't face southpaws). Mark Kotsay could also work. A simpler solution, as many commenters below have noted, would be Dickerson in center and a free agent left fielder signed.
Encarnacion's defense at third base is not pretty. I would love to see Walt Jocketty make an aggressive offer for Adrian Beltre. I'll let you speculate on scenarios.
The Reds' rotation has a chance to be excellent next year without outside additions. Arroyo, Harang, and Cueto all posted ERAs above 4.60 in '08. However, Arroyo and Harang finished strong and Cueto was solid for a rookie. Throw in Volquez and a healthy Owings and the Reds could be tough one through five. Thompson and Bailey provide more depth than most teams can boast.
Bailey could be trade bait, perhaps offered to Texas for a catcher. But the Reds intend to give Hanigan a shot, and I like that plan. As for the excess cash, where to spend it? I don't see needs beyond a backup catcher and veteran center fielder. I suppose some dough can be spent to re-sign or replace Jeremy Affeldt as the go-to lefty. And maybe Hairston will re-up at a reasonable rate. But if I'm Walt Jocketty, I'm only tinkering in my first winter as Reds GM (aside from the Beltre idea). This team has sleeper potential.
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If Owing is really their number 5 pitcher they'll have an above average rotation next year. Another decent outfielder say maybe Kotay or Ibanez and a another set up man (Ohman?) the might actually be a darkhorse contender.
Posted by: start_wearing_purple | September 26, 2008 at 12:38 AM
does anyone see the reds making a run for someone like rafael furcal or even a deal to bring back mike cameron until Stubbs or another prosepct can make their way to the bigs?
I also think the reds should look into trading Homer Baily to the Rangers for one of their surplus catchers. I think Homer still has a chance to be a solid major league pitcher, but even without him the reds have plenty of options for that 5th starter spot but could use a solid young catcher to go with hanigan.
Posted by: reds205 | September 26, 2008 at 12:46 AM
I hope Reds fans don't get all over me for this, but is the fan base sold on going after a young unproven MLB ready catcher, or would they rather go after a Catcher that has shown MLB success (Kelly Shoppach), or a proven vet that could provide stability (Bengie Molina)?
Would Reds fans consider giving up any legitimate prospects for either of those types of players?
Posted by: The Juice | September 26, 2008 at 01:03 AM
If guys like harang,Arroyo,and Owings can bounce back from disappointing season this year and Edinson Volquez can carry the good year he's having this year,they could have a pretty good rotation...I also agree they should try and make a run and trade for Adrian Beltre they could use another bat in their lineup or sign someone like Mark Kotsay to a 1 year deal.
Posted by: JT89 | September 26, 2008 at 01:05 AM
hopper and freel are gone. the cincinnati media has already made a big deal about them being absent from the clubhouse during their extended injury rehab vacation. and just because he's the worst hitter in the league, everyone hates patterson. he's gone, or back as dusty's bench coach/son-in-law.
Posted by: timtimmons | September 26, 2008 at 01:22 AM
The Reds win the Central in 2009. You heard it here first.
Posted by: twoseamer | September 26, 2008 at 01:58 AM
Why did you mention Edmonds? Please oh please Walt, please don't sign any more old veterans to this team, even if they are your pals. We are enjoying the youth movement too much to take a step back. I'll concede that we need another outfielder, but not Edmonds. I'd much rather see someone with more upside signed, like Juan Rivera in LF to complement a LF/CF platoon with Hairston, Dickerson, and Stubbs.
Personally, I'd much rather have the team shed payroll for '09 at the chance to sign Matt Holliday for 2010. Push the talent through the system (Stubbs, Alonso, Valaika, etc.) and determine who is gonna stick in the bigs. Determine if Alex Gonzalez can play SS again, and let go of Freel's contract asap. If Bailey, Ramirez, or Thompson are knocking down the door, WJ should entertain the idea of spinning Arroyo mid-season for some young position talent (SS, CF, C).
We don't need a myopic vision for 2009, but rather a reasonable strategy for 2010 and beyond.
Posted by: wanderinredsfan | September 26, 2008 at 02:00 AM
did I just read that dunn was taking away ABs from bako and cpat....?
I'm confused I thought every AB from the mendoza twins took ABs away from other people, not the other way around....
Posted by: temmp55 | September 26, 2008 at 02:40 AM
edmonds or kotsay would be better than patterson/hairston. and um...freel should be in that open OF spot instead of the CF spot. you know, since the lack of a better option is nothing before its freel.
Put micah in the pen, and play him in left or at 1st every once in awhile, we need to know if he's a legitimate bat or not, next years not a bad time. we have 5th starter options or you could sign a decent pitcher for it too (probably what i would do). micah rests his shoulder, and gets to hit (he seems to enjoy it enough). Bullpen/pinch hitter/LF/1B sounds like a pretty sweet utility player to me.
Posted by: temmp55 | September 26, 2008 at 02:51 AM
this is just an outsider looking in, but the reds look like an absolute mess.
even back to the jr-dunn-kearns next-great-outfield 'era'
talent there, yes, but it never looked like there was any chemistry or clue of direction
Posted by: crash | September 26, 2008 at 03:06 AM
I thought the Reds would compete for the playoffs this year. They are stacked with young talent and their pitching looks bright. But man, how the NL Central has improved. Went from the worst division in baseball to the best (arguably) in about a year.
Posted by: nrmax88 | September 26, 2008 at 03:34 AM
"this is just an outsider looking in, but the reds look like an absolute mess.
even back to the jr-dunn-kearns next-great-outfield 'era'
talent there, yes, but it never looked like there was any chemistry or clue of direction "
Huh? Two young studs too build around already contributing at the ML level in Votto and Bruce, another stud in Brandon Phillips at 2B, guys like Stubbs and Alonso on the way, and a pitching staff centered around Harang, Volquez, and Cueto?
Sign me up.
Posted by: nrmax88 | September 26, 2008 at 03:38 AM
I'll take Hairston over Kotsay and Edmonds. However, I hope it doesn't come down to deciding amongst them three. There are better options available that are still affordable.
A best case scenario: a healthy Gonzalez and Freel are dealt during the season, Janish earns the starting SS position with an improved bat, and Holliday is signed in 2010.
Posted by: wanderinredsfan | September 26, 2008 at 05:07 AM
I know he played LF when Patterson was playing CF, but Dickerson is a CF -- and a very good one defensively at that.
LF is the open spot, not CF.
Posted by: RedsManRick | September 26, 2008 at 06:08 AM
If the Reds really do believe they can contend next season, they will need to add a legit bat to that offense (Edmonds is not a legitimate bat...nor is he someone that belongs in a Red's under ANY circumstances).
I know it's a long shot, but what are the odds the Reds spend some cash and bring in Bobby Abreu. He certainly isn't the hitter he once was, but he still holds his own, to say the least. Bruce played some CF this season and, presumable can hold down that spot next season as well.
Is it worth it to sacrifice defense in CF (assuming some other FA stopgap would be an upgrade)? Does the addition of Abreu improve the offense enough to give the Reds a shot to make the playoffs?
Another problem remains, however, as we still don't have a clear leadoff man for this team... where does he come from? ...Willy Taveras?
Posted by: nckdmss | September 26, 2008 at 06:48 AM
Dickerson is definitely the CF and leadoff man. He has earned at least a look for next season. He is bad against lefties though, so a platoon would make sense. Perhaps Freel if he isnt run out of town, or re-sign Hairston?
I have no faith in Gonzalez at SS next year and Keppinger has been the worst there this season. I would like to see Phillips moved to SS, but that will never happen.
LF is the huge hole. the Beltre idea is intriguing, as Encarnacion could be moved to LF (he has a strong arm and is very athletic, his problem is accuracy to 1B). It will be an interesting offseason for the Reds.
Posted by: charliescrabbles | September 26, 2008 at 07:03 AM
I agree that the Reds have a lot of promise. I think 2010 might be their year instead of '09 after some of the kids have matured a little and a few holes have been plugged. My one disagreement is with Homer Bailey. I've watched Bailey and I see nothing there. That 96 m.p.h. fastball that he flashed as a teenager is now 90/91 and it has no movement at all. And with no breaking pitches that come close to finding the plate, he doesn't have much of an arsenal. I'm no scout but I think he has "throw in" value now, at best.
Posted by: MickS | September 26, 2008 at 07:07 AM
Not following the Edmonds hate...he has a .900 OPS as a Cub. For a few million he is a contributor, I am not sure why people would disagree.
But, Dickerson as CF sounds pretty good. LF will be easier to fill.
Also, I did not write that Dunn was taking ABs away from Patterson and Bako.
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | September 26, 2008 at 07:59 AM
I guess my phrasing was confusing in that one sentence. What I meant was, the offense will no longer have Dunn and Hairston (bad) but also will no longer have Patterson and Bako (good). The Reds can also give fewer ABs to Keppinger (good).
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | September 26, 2008 at 08:04 AM
Don't fall in love with Dickerson quite yet. I know he has looked good but consider the small sample size and the fact that his numbers don't jibe with his minor league career (.260 hitter). It wouldn't be the first time that a player broke out at the major league level after an unspectacular showing in the minors but I'm just saying that it could just as easily be "flash in the pan" results based on a small sample size. I'd have to see more sustained success before I would annoint him as a core contributor. It also wouldn't be the first time that a call-up tore it up for a couple of months and then disappeared forever.
Posted by: MickS | September 26, 2008 at 08:13 AM
"I hope Reds fans don't get all over me for this, but is the fan base sold on going after a young unproven MLB ready catcher, or would they rather go after a Catcher that has shown MLB success (Kelly Shoppach), or a proven vet that could provide stability (Bengie Molina)?"
I've thought about a Shoppach deal to Cincy. Cleveland wouldn't want prospects though most likely (though maybe). Encarnacion would be nice as they need a 3B. I could also see them throwing a young starter (Aaron Laffey or Scott Lewis) and some prospects of their own at Cincy to try and pry Harang away.
I don't see the Reds contending next year. Even 2010 seems a bit soon...but you never know, with some good moves this year and next they could.
Posted by: Hermie13 | September 26, 2008 at 08:32 AM
I know that Abreu was mentioned as a possible free agent but what about his teammate pat burrell? then we could have burrell/dickerson/bruce all in natural positions
Posted by: jaybruce32 | September 26, 2008 at 08:41 AM
if im walt im throwing whatever it takes to sign derek lowe .... im also calling detroit to see what they want for mags
cf - dickerson / stubbs
ss - gonzalez / keppinger
1st - votto
lf - maggs
rf - bruce
2b - phillips
3b - ee
c - hanigan
rotation
volquez
harang
lowe
arroyo
cueto
pen
micah
bray
burton
coco
resign affledt
ramirez
roenicke or resign weathers
Posted by: redsfan | September 26, 2008 at 08:48 AM
Regarding Dickerson, I don't think anybody expects him to maintain a 1.000 OPS, especially not on the back of .400+ BABIP. But once his "luck" regresses down to his skill, you're still looking at a .260/.350/.430 type line which is quite playable.
He is quite lefthanded, but a Dickerson/Freel platoon at CF and leadoff could be pretty solid. Freel is a .360 OBP guy himself when and if he's healthy.
The trade for Beltre and move EE to LF movement has gained some steam on the RedsZone boards. Given that the Ms are the Ms, perhaps we can fool them on the idea that Homer Bailey is still a top prospect.
Posted by: RedsManRick | September 26, 2008 at 09:09 AM
Yeah, what's with the hate on Edmonds? He hasn't been a bad player. He's played really solid defense throughout his career, and he can hit. He's much better than anyone the Reds are employing on their outfield right now, Jay Bruce notwithstanding.
He started off the year bad, but you can point out that he was playing in a BIG field at Petco, and his age was catching up to him, but ever since he was signed by Chicago, he's done a mighty fine job. Ask any Cubs fan, and I'm sure they'll tell you they'd re-sign him to a one-year deal in a second.
He's always been solid, and he'd be a good mentor to their young players. Plus, he won't cost at all too much, and he's more likely to stay on the field longer than Kotsay would.
Posted by: Ink&Paper | September 26, 2008 at 09:19 AM
Edmonds is good because he is only going to be looking for one year. As Tim stated, he has a .900 OPS as a Cub. He should mash at Great American Small Park...and is comfortable playing in the same parks he has for years: those of the NL central. The move would make a lot of sense actually...
By the way, many picked them as a "Dark Horse" this year as well. Unless they get the old Harang back, they aren't doing anything. However, if they do get him back as a legit Ace, I think they are capable of winning 85 games.
Posted by: Aduncaroo | September 26, 2008 at 09:40 AM
I am not sold on the Beltre idea. Beltre and Edwin have put up nearly identical offensive numbers this year(25 homeruns each, .266 BA to .255 BA, .327 OBP to .342 OBP, and .457 to .464 SLG). In fact, you can make a strong case that Edwin is having a better year considering he is on base more and has a higher slugging percentage. Not to mention, Beltre is making 13.4 million to Edwin's 450,000. I say the Reds pass on Beltre, save that money to throw at an outfielder or hold the money until 2010 to sign a top flight free agent.
Posted by: reds205 | September 26, 2008 at 09:41 AM
Yeah, getting Beltre frees the Reds up nicely especially if they don't use EE to get him. Move him to left, or just shop him and bring in a LF. EE still has decent trade value I think.
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | September 26, 2008 at 09:43 AM
Haven't seen any mention of Dusty Baker yet. Has everyone forgotten about him? He pushes to get his favorite players signed and then plays them when they shouldn't even be on the team. Reds fans, you can thank Baker for the $3 million dollars you gave to CPat this year. And you can thank Baker for the way he used Harang and likely costing him a descent season. Now Reds fans are seeing great things in '09 and '10 because they've got young kids on the way? Are you aware of the way Dusty uses young players, or should I say doesn't use young players?
The man could screw up a well run franchise, which is why well run franchises don't hire the guy. When Krivsky hired Dusty it made me laugh because I knew that he'd set the Reds back years. Wait for it Reds fans..... By the time you get rid of Dusty the bloom will be off the roses of all those young players you've got, the pitchers careers will be a shambles and the hitters will have their confidence destroyed because they think they've got to swing at everything to get playing time. Just wait for it Reds fans....
Posted by: pageian | September 26, 2008 at 09:46 AM
I personally think that Magglio Ordonez would be a perfect fit for this team, as he has a short (relatively speaking) contract, he's a righthanded bat, and your 2-6 in the lineup would look like this:
2. Brandon Phillips
3. Jay Bruce
4. Magglio Ordonez
5. Joey Votto
6. Edwin Encarnacion
(Flip Bruce and Votto if you want)
Then the issue becomes a leadoff hitter and a shortstop. But, if you include Arroyo in the Magglio deal, that frees up potential money to sign Rafael Furcal.
Another Note, how about Rocco Baldelli for CF. His option was declined before the season due to his health issue which he seems to be over, put him in CF and bat him 7th, Furcal as leadoff, and that is a deep lineup and still a strong rotation.
Posted by: drchstrpunk | September 26, 2008 at 09:51 AM
What about a trade with the Yanks?
Johnny Damon, Melky Cabrera and Chad Moeller for:
Harang or Arroyo plus a mid-level prospect like Adam Rosales (AAA 1b). Or maybe a deal for Homer Bailey and another mid-level prospect?
Posted by: YanksFanSince78 | September 26, 2008 at 09:54 AM
Nobody wants Damon or Melky, and especially are not going to trade good pitching for both of them. Damon is old and expensive, and Melky Cabrera is just plain... How can I say this? Below Average.
Posted by: drchstrpunk | September 26, 2008 at 10:07 AM
Johnny "noodle arm" Damon? Chad "been there, done that" Moeller? Melky "4th OF" Cabrera? Are you kidding?
Posted by: MickS | September 26, 2008 at 10:11 AM
Drchstrpunk, Baldelli's not over his injury problems. He's just taking meds to keep his condition stable. But he has some kind of mitochondrial disorder. There are no cures for it. Yet.
He's very talented, and I'm sure he's a better player than most CF's that other teams seem to employ. But I think his days as a full-time OF are done. I hope good things for him, but realistically speaking, playing him as an OF is not going to work.
Posted by: Ink&Paper | September 26, 2008 at 10:36 AM
Johnny Damon gives you a starting left fielder. His arm isn't good enough to start in CF but can hold his own at LF and give you great offense from the lead off spot with 30 sb potential and is a good short term option. Cabrera, who by the way is only 23 yrs old, gives you a great defensive CF w/ upside. He showed he can be an adequate hitter and can only get better if you work with him. Chad could be your back up C. Harang was an expensive 6-16 this year. He's going to make 11 mil in 09, 12.5 mil in '10 and a team option for 12.5 in 11 or a 2 mil buy out. So they are committed to paying him $25 mill over the next 2 years.
I think the Reds woulnd't mind getting from under a 25 mil commitment to a pitcher who's going to be 31 yrs old in May 09 w/ a 6-16.
It's almost addition by subtraction. You pay Damon's last yr for about 12 mil and you lose Haraang's contract for 25 mil.
Posted by: YanksFanSince78 | September 26, 2008 at 10:52 AM
I think the Reds could definitely contend next year. They have some quality bats already there in Votto, Bruce, Phillips, and Encarnacion. The rotation could be quite good if Harang bounces back, and Volquez and Cueto continue to develop. The bullpen has proven to be solid as well.
If they could land Beltre for maybe a Daryl Thompson/Chris Valaika package and then move Encarnacion to left and wait til Stubbs is ready for center in 2010, and then move either Dickerson or Encarnacion for a 3B if Francisco or Soto isn't the answer. Realistically I'm not sure if any big name free agents make sense for them except for Furcal..
Posted by: scribbletone | September 26, 2008 at 10:52 AM
The Reds have a lot of holes to fill this year. They need another OF...perhaps two unless you feel Dickerson is worthy of starting. I would be alot more comfortable with that if he had been called up to replace Griffey or as a replacement for Patterson.
I'm running with that he can at least be around league average.
With that they have holes at C, SS, LF, and 3B that they have to fill
C I would be fine with Shoppach or either of Teagarden or Salty. I don't think Liard is better then the Reds in house options.
3B, Beltre would be acceptable, but I rather have someone that has more of a long term future with the team. Would depend on how much of the contract Seattle would pick up.
SS really nothing out there this year. I think the Reds should go with hoping Gonzalez is ok but I would send Janish to a fall league and even go so far as having him work with a hitting coach for a decent chunk of the off-season. His glove is very good, as is his strike zone judgement, but he has minimal power. Again a very small sample size, the Reds should be running him out there daily over guys that don't have a future with the club.
OF I really like the idea of trading for Mags. He'd be a short term option which is a plus with Alsono being likedly to be fast tracked and would probably cost nothing major since the Tigers would look to move him for salary relief.
I would also look into moving Encaracion some of my dream trades involve him and Bailey
would love to deal both and get Alex Gordon, or Zimmerman or go in a completely different direction and snatch Cain from the Giants. Doesn't fix a hole but would give the Reds a exceptionally good pitching staff. Any time you can run out four guys with number 1 or 2 stuff you are doing great.
Posted by: schellis | September 26, 2008 at 11:06 AM
There is no way I trade Harang for the Yankees garbage package.
Harang has had horrible run support this year and pitched hurt for around a month. His stat line doesn't match up with his stuff.
I would consider Arroyo but the Yankees really don't have anything that really works.
Posted by: schellis | September 26, 2008 at 11:08 AM
Reds deal Bailey for Salty.
Neither has achieved what was thought for them and a fresh start wouldn't hurt either.
While Teagarden would be my first choice because of defense I think the Rangers keep him because of the same.
Reds move a couple of second teir prospects, say Darryl Thompson and Sean Cumberland for Mags and pick up all the salary.
Tigers get a couple of solid prospects and reduce payroll. Reds get a big RH bat to slap between Bruce/Votto
Trade EE to the Mariners for Beltre and Wladimir Blantien
These actions would fix three of the four holes and give the Reds a upper level prospect if Maggs goes down.
LF-Maggs
CF-Dickerson
RF-Bruce
1B-Votto
2B-BP
3B-Beltre
SS-Janish/A-Gon
C-Salty/Hannigan
SP-Harang
SP-Volquez
SP-Cueto
SP-Arroyo
SP-Ownings
Posted by: schellis | September 26, 2008 at 11:19 AM
Schellis:
a) He was 6-16 with an era of 4.72.
b) He's going to be 31 yrs old.
c) He's owed 25 mil over the next 2 years.
With younger pitchers like Bailey waiting you don't think the Reds would love to get from under that deal?
Posted by: YanksFanSince78 | September 26, 2008 at 11:20 AM
1. The Reds are not cash strapped. Castillini may even increase the payroll.
2. Bailey's garbage and could not replace a healthy Harang.
3. Your Yank-me package is trash. If the Reds did decide to move Harand it sure as hell wouldn't be for that pathetic collection of "has-beens" and "vever were's".
Posted by: MickS | September 26, 2008 at 11:29 AM
"never-were"s, that is.
Posted by: MickS | September 26, 2008 at 11:30 AM
Again Harang pitched hurt for over a month and got shelled for it. I bet if you remove that time you can almost shave a full run off his ERA.
But since he's so horrible why would the Yankees want him?
When healthy Harang is a legitimate ace that you can count on for around 230 innings a year, and up till this year Harang has been very healthy.
His contract isn't bloated, its a bargin. Pitchers with his skills are bringing in anywhere from 5-7 million more per year.
Posted by: schellis | September 26, 2008 at 11:34 AM
Schellis:
I never said he was horrible.
What I said was he was 6-16 with a era close to 5.00. I don't care how few runs your team scores that has nothing to do with how many runs he gives up. It might help explain why a pitcher was 6-16 though.
You brought up the fact that he was injured. How much do you expect in return for a picther in his 30's, who is owed 25 million and is coming off of an injury....and who was 6-16 w/ a 5.00 era?
I just thought that package might work because it fills a couple of holes (lf, cf and backup catcher) w/o huge financial commitments for the Reds. And while the reds may not be strapped for cash they don't seem likely to spend a lot either.
Meanwhile, the Yankees are moving excess in Damon and picking up a pitcher who might benefit froma change of sceneray.
How serious was Haraang's injury by the way?
Posted by: YanksFanSince78 | September 26, 2008 at 11:49 AM
I am a yankee fan and have to say it is silly to think that the Reds would trade Harang and Aroyo for Damon and Cabrrara.
As a Yankee fan I would like nothing better then to get rid of Damon but he has little value at his salary and with his poor arm in the outfeild. He is at best a poor left feilder at this point. Cabbrara is a minor league outfeilder and has shown almost nothing in the majors except that he may be a fourth outfeilder.
While I would love pitching from the Reds the Yankees would have to give something of real value. Again to get something you must give up something.
The one guy I would really want from the Reds is Voto at first. This would be a great guy for the Yankees to get but would probably need to move Hughes and another top prospect to even keep the Reds on the phone.
Posted by: lek | September 26, 2008 at 11:49 AM
I won't argue about a fantasy trade for haraang but here are his numbers:
April-6 starts
1-3 2.98 era
May-6 starts
1-3 4.98 era
June-6 starts
1-3 6.00 era
July-1 start
0-1 12.46 era
August-4 starts
1-3 8.41 era
September-5 starts
2-2 2.50 era.
Other than April and Sept he sucked all year and missed an entire month w/ a strained right forearm.
And you owe him another 25 mil for the next 2 years.
Posted by: YanksFanSince78 | September 26, 2008 at 11:59 AM
I know it might cost a bunch (I figure a payroll of 90M - Bob C would do it if he could get a championship), but I would love to see the Reds go out and sign Mark Teixeira and Orlando Hudson to long term contracts. Both are switch hitters, great gloves and hitters. Move Votto to left. Move Phillips to SS. Bring up Stubbs to play CF. He’s hit at every level and is good defensively. He really should be up right now. I’d love to sign or trade for a catcher, but I don’t think any of the options out there are much better than Hanigan. Keppinger and Hairston can’t be our SS next year. They would make great bench players or possibly a 3B if we can get something nice for EE.
Pitching wise, I don’t ever remember the Reds being this well off from a starting pitching standpoint (see my rotation below). I think they should try Bailey in the bullpen if he has a rough spring (that or plan on trading him). I’d give Cordero away if someone would take his contract. So my 2009 Reds have all the bases covered…very good, flexible (switch hitters) lineup with speed, very good up the middle defense, very good rotation, good bullpen, good flexible bench, young (if Hudson and Teixeira are signed to long term – there is hardly anyone on the roster that can go free agent in next few years) and relatively cheap. There is no doubt in my mind that this roster goes to the playoffs.
Lineup
Hudson 2B
Phillips SS
Votto LF
Teixeira 1B
Bruce RF
EE 3B
Stubbs CF
Hanigan C
Rotation
Harrang
Volquez
Cueto
Arroyo
One of Bailey/Owings/Ramirez/Maloney/Livingston/Pelland/Pettyjohn/Thompson
Relievers
Two of the rotation losers
Affeldt (if we can resign him)/Herrera
Roenicke/Masset/Majewski/Lincoln
Bray
Burton
Closer
Cordero
Bench
Castillo
Valentin
Keppinger
Hairston
Dickerson
Posted by: maus | September 26, 2008 at 12:04 PM
Again if Harang is so horrible why would the Yankees want him?
Don't play Reds fans like their fools.
The Reds aren't going to give up a ace quality starter signed to a below market contract for basically crap.
Dickerson is already just as good as Damon
Cabrera is a 4th OF, again just as good as Dickerson, a minor league free agent catcher is just as good as Moeller.
So for Harang, a player the Reds need, the Reds can get three players that really are no better then a group of players they already have on the roster that are paid the league minimum.
You want Harang the price starts at Joba and Jackson.
Basically I want better then what the Orioles got for Bedard, who I consider below Harang's skill level
Posted by: schellis | September 26, 2008 at 12:24 PM
a change of scenery trade with a pitcher for a hitter has worked out pretty well before with the rangers and reds... and i wouldnt mind trading for mags if he doesnt cost us much.
Posted by: jaybruce32 | September 26, 2008 at 12:28 PM
Reds have a bunch of...not holes...but uncertainties.
C, SS, CF, LF
There are for sure people we can put at each of these positions. Hannigan can catch. One of Kepp or Gonzalez can play Short, Center and Left could go to Freel/Hopper/Dickerson. The Rotation is technically "Set", but I think the Reds have some things to do that can make them a contender.
The Reds could use a new Catcher...but Im content with Hannigan i like what i've seen. Reds NEED a true leadoff hitter, and a right handed power bat.
I think the Reds should go after Derek Lowe and Jaun Rivera as free agents. Then send some of their pitching "surplus" and go get a CF leadoff hitter to go with Bruce and Rivera...or go get a leadoff SS because the Reds need a real leadoff hitter. Maybe Kenny Lofton will come back for less then 7 million?
Posted by: GmblngPtchr20 | September 26, 2008 at 12:36 PM
Schellis:
I never said he was horrible but he's obviously a player who had a "disturbing" year and is a question mark who is OWED $25 MILLION over the next 2 years.
Damon is washed up?
93runs-167hits-27 dbls-16hrs-70rbi-29sb-.305 batavg
He has almost as many rbis (70) as a leadoff hitter as does Votto and Phillips your middle of the line up hitters, plus he hit .305 which is higher than any other full time player in your line up. He has one year remaining on his contract (13 mill).
The Yanks are not DESPERATE to get rid of Damon but if we decide to keep Nady and Abreu then we need to free up some space because Matsui/Posada would probably need to DH.
The Yanks would probably be the only team willing to carry Haraang's salary considering his injuries/bad performance. Just a thought. No big deal. it's not like you and I are the GM's right?
I personally like Cabrera and think the Yanks should shut up and let him play in CF but I don't think that will happen. He had a "bad" year offensively but not a horrible one. he's only 24 yrs old and last year he hit:
.273 with 149 hits, 24 dbls, 8 hrs and drove in 73 rbis as a # 9 hitter. Played exceptional defesnse. Since when are those horrible #'s from a young CF in his 2nd year in the majors? And he doesn't strike out much which means he may not be hitting .300 but he's at least making contact.
Posted by: YanksFanSince78 | September 26, 2008 at 12:43 PM
Hey Gmbling:
If the Yanks offered Damon (your new Lf and leadoff hitter, Cabrera (your new 24 yr old CF) and threw in one of our young C (Cervilli or Romine) for Haraang and a minor leaguer do you think that would work?
I'm not a Reds fan but are they very budget conscious? Haraang and Cordero are the only Reds making more than $5 mill.
Posted by: YanksFanSince78 | September 26, 2008 at 12:52 PM
Aaron Harang had a BAD middle part of the season and was injured because Dust for Brains decided to use him (on short rest) for four Innings in an 18 Inning Game in San Diego. Dust for Brains then decided to use him in his regular start (again on short rest). So, within a one week time period, Harang appeared in three Games and threw over 200 Pitches.
As far as additions to the team go, I would like to have Matt Holiday but he would be too expensive to trade for and the too expensive to sign.
Maglio would also be expensive to trade for and pay plus he is older than Holliday.
I would LOVE to see the Reds trade for Carl Crawford or Alex Rios and would definitly include Homer Bailey in a deal but that is not likely to happen.
So, my reasonable solution would be for the Reds to trade for Josh Willingham and use him in Left Field.
The Marlins are going to HAVE to get rid of some players so as to keep their (already low) payroll in check and I think retaining Willingham would be lower on the list of priorities.
Willingham plays half his Games in a Pitchers park and going to a hitters park would increase his Offense.
In both 2006 and 2007, Willingham hit over .260, had 20 or more Home Runs and 74 or more RBI's. Also, in both of those years, his Slugging Percentage was .50 or higher on the Road as compared to Home. So, with him, the Reds would get 80% of Adam Dunn's RBI's, 80% of Adam Dunn's Strike Outs at less than 1/3 Adam Dunn's cost.
The $10 million saved could and should be used to fill the Bull Pen with studs (since Volquez and Cueto have had a hard time going more then six Innings in their starts this year).
The final piece to the puzzle would be trading for Bengie Molina. Some people are saying the Reds should trade for Kelly Shoppach or Saltalamachia but they are NOT proven. Plus, they are NOT Latin players.
With the Reds having Volquez, Cueto, Ramon Ramirez and Francisco Cordero, I think it would be helpful if they had an experienced, Spanish speaking Catcher to help them out.
The Giants look like they need a Short Stop and also have some other holes to fill and probably DON'T want to trade any of their young Pitching away to fill those needs.
Reds fans might not like it but I would trade Homer Bailey and Alex Gonzalez to the Giants for Molina and ???.
In 2007, Bailey had two of his best starts in LARGE ball parks (San Francisco, Oakland). So, with his decreased velocity and VERY hitter friendly ball park (GASP), plus all the HYPE that has followed The Saviour since the Reds drafted him, I think going to a West Coast team, where he can just throw his Fast Ball the majority of the time and let hitters hit it and get themselves out, would be the best thing for Bailey.
Posted by: ctownboy | September 26, 2008 at 01:35 PM
Continuing on.
Depending on what the Yankess wanted for Melky Cabrera, I would have no trouble with him being on the Reds.
Another wishful thinking trade woould be for the Reds to trade Bronson Arroyo to the Red Sox for Kevin Youklis. Boston likes Arroyo and Youklis is from Cincinnati so that works. Then, with Youk at First Base, the Reds could move Votto to Left Field.
As far as Chris Dickerson being the Reds 2009 Center Fielder, what is not to like? He is younger than Corey (automatic Out) Patterson, just as fast as Corey (EVERY Pitch is a GOOD Pitch to swing at) Patterson and plays just as good of Defense as Corey (I may or may not be dating Dusty Baker's daughter) Patterson. Plus, he is less expensive.
So, if Dickerson only hits .250, that would STILL be almost a .50 improvement over Corey (I wasn't in Major League baseball before the Reds signed me) Patterson.
Posted by: ctownboy | September 26, 2008 at 01:48 PM
Again if Harang is this bad why would you want him.
He has pitched hurt for a decent chunk of time, got no run support, he's getting around 3 runs a game so I would say he's alot closer to a .500 pitcher this year then he is to what his true record shows. Not great, but with a pitcher like him you go with recent past and what he has done this year when healthy. Which of course is ace level. This is why teams would want him, but they want him based on this years numbers thinking that they could get him for next to nothing.
A over paid Damon, a 4th OF and a guy that shouldn't be in the majors is a laughable offer.
The Reds have a potentially better version of Damon (one that can play CF) in Dickerson. He's cheap and doesn't cost the Reds Harang. OFs like Cabrera are a dime a dozen...just bringing back Freel or Hairston would fill that role well enough. Any AAA catcher would be as good as Moeller.
Honestly this wouldn't even be a good fantasy trade.
Posted by: schellis | September 26, 2008 at 02:03 PM
You really think Damon is overpaid @ $13 million for a leadoff hitter who hit for power 16hrs and 70 rbis , 93 runs, .376 obp, hit .305 with 29 sbs in 37 attempts?
Look at the FA market. other than Manny and Adam Dunn what LF's are a better option? Crawford's option has already been picked up.
Left fielders
Moises Alou (42)
Garret Anderson (37) - $14MM club option for '09 with a $3MM buyout
Milton Bradley (31)
Emil Brown (34)
Pat Burrell (32)
Carl Crawford (27) - $8.25MM club option for '09 with a $2.5MM buyout
Adam Dunn (29)
Cliff Floyd (36) - $2.75MM club option for '09 with a $0.25MM buyout
Luis Gonzalez (41)
Jerry Hairston Jr. (33)
Raul Ibanez (37)
Gabe Kapler (33)
Kevin Mench (31)
Jason Michaels (33) - $2.6MM club option for '09
Craig Monroe (32)
Greg Norton (36)
Jay Payton (36)
Wily Mo Pena (27) - $5MM club option or $2MM player option for '09
Manny Ramirez (37)
Juan Rivera (30)
Fernando Tatis (34)
Posted by: YanksFanSince78 | September 26, 2008 at 02:29 PM
I already said I would give the job to Dickerson and hope for the best.
He's got a solid OBP, power, and steals bases and places a acceptable CF for the league minimum. But since you asked I would take Burrell, Bradley, Rivera and maybe Ibanez on a 2 year deal over Damon and all could probably be had for around the same 13 million. Heck I'd happily bring back Dunn for that as well.
Smart small market teams don't pay big contracts for league average at best production.
Trading Harang for Yankee castoffs makes absolutely no sense for the Reds.
Payroll isn't a problem, they didn't trade Griffey/Dunn to shave off payroll they did it because they weren't winning with them and weren't going to resign them.
The Reds have OFs that are close to big league ready it wouldn't surprise me at all if the 09 OF was Dickerson, Stubbs, Bruce...it would be one of if not the best defensive OF in the majors and I don't think it would be disappointing offensively either.
Damon cost alot and really brings nothing to the table that the Reds don't already have. He's not a high average hitter, he doesn't have major power, he's not great defensively though in LF thats not a big deal.
Dickerson can be a poor man's Johnny Damon for a fraction of the price and allow the Reds to bring in someone that does fill those needs for LF. The more I think about it the more Magglio looks right for the team. High average, right handed, good power middle of the order hitter that will take pressure off Bruce and Votto.
Dickerson starts in CF and if he falls back to Earth you turn it over to Stubbs.
Harang is in the upper teir of starting pitchers. It would take a legitimate offer to get him, not players that will have Reds fans wishing that they would go away so the youth can take their spots and post better numbers.
Posted by: schellis | September 26, 2008 at 03:12 PM
Why do Yankees fans think that their players are worth more than the market commands? There is no one, absolutely no one, knocking on Cashman's door for Damon, Cabrera, or Moeller. But I guarantee that the Reds have fielded inquiries on Harrang and Arroyo. They are locked up for years to come at below league cost, considering that they are always near the top in innings pitched. How many consistent 200+ inning pitchers are there available for under 15mil a year? Look at what Carlos Silva got last year. Granted, Harang is having an off-year, but he is still a #1-#2 type pitcher for most teams, including the Yanks. If either pitcher were on the market, they would command millions more than they are making. Damon would command millions less. Cabrera has some value, but he doesn't offer anything more than what Dickerson, Stubbs, Freel, Hairston, or Hopper can offer. Moeller was let go by the Reds for free!
If Harang or Arroyo are traded, it might be for some payroll relief, but it will most surely involve better talent with more upside than your delusional offering. Please, re-evaluate your farm system and get back to us with a reasonable offer. Oh that's right, the Yankees can't buy their way out of their farm-system mess this time.
Posted by: wanderinredsfan | September 26, 2008 at 03:13 PM
Yanksfansince78 is probably not even aware that the Reds have already kicked Chad Moeller to the curb once. Why in the world would they want him back?
Posted by: MickS | September 26, 2008 at 03:35 PM
haha.....you people are such haters. So what the Yankees have more money than everyone else. So do the Whitsox, Angels, Dodgers, Mets and any others. Let me address some issues:
a) Damon is far from being league average.
b) You ask what would he bring to the Reds? Just based on this years stats he would lead the Reds in Batting Avg (.305), Runs scored (93), OBP (.376), Stolen bases (29), hits (167), walks (62), and AS A LEADOFF HITTER he would be 10rbi's shy of tying Votto for team lead in Rbi's.
So let's first admitt that he would a great addition to their line up as a productive lead off hitter to get on base, steal and score some runs in front of bruce, ee, votto and phillips.
c) With no star caliber veterans on team Damon can bring post-season veteran leadership and fiestyness to a very young team.
d) The Yanks farm system has been horrible for a while but as of late in the last few years they have improved dramatically. They were ranked as having the #5 system in baseball. That's the industry experts talking not quotes I read from a Yankee media guide.
We're all just having fun here. The trade is something that I thought might work.
BUT please...if you want to make an arguement about something then at least make some sense and be more informed about what your saying.
IF I were THE REDS I would NEVER trade Phillips, Bruce or Votto straight up for Damon or with Damon as the center bcuz the other guys have much, much more upside...BUT please don't act like the guy is JUST an average player in this league. Because as I just educated you his individual stats would lead the Reds in almost every category...AS A LEAD OFF HITTER.
cheers...
Posted by: YanksFanSince78 | September 26, 2008 at 03:47 PM
Honestly speaking. If the Reds were to use Haraang to fill in some of their holes then what do you really think you would get for a:
31 yr old pitcher coming off of a 6-16 season with an era of 4.70, coming off an arm related injury this year, who's guaranteed to make $25 million over the next 2 years? And the fact that Carlos Silva signed a ridiculous deal last year and proceeded to have a 4-15 season with a 6.00 era helps make a case for Haraang?
And Chad Moeller was offered to become your starting C. The deal could be fine tuned but Damon and Cabrera I think would help a young team with eyes on becoming contenders.
Posted by: YanksFanSince78 | September 26, 2008 at 03:56 PM
(This is something I wrote elsewhere about a month ago).
Your 2009 Cincinnati Reds (with what I’d pay free agents):
C: (originally I had Borajas, who I then found out has an option for '09)
1B: Joey Votto
2B: Mark Ellis (3/$20M)
3B: Edwin Encarnacion
SS: Brandon Phillips
LF: Matt Holliday (4/$80)
CF: Rocco Baldelli (2/$6M, $4-5M in incentives)
RF: Jay Bruce
Bench:
Ryan Hanigan
Alex Gonzalez
Jerry Hairston
Chris Dickerson/Drew Stubbs
Sean Casey (1/$1M)
Starting Pitchers:
Aaron Harang
Edinson Volquez
Johnny Cueto
Bronson Arroyo
Matt Maloney/Darryl Thompson
Relievers:
Francisco Cordero
Bill Bray
Jared Burton
Josh Roenike
Will Ohman (2/$7M)
MLB minimum fodder
MLB minimum fodder
How did we get Holliday, you ask? Why, by trading Todd Frazier, Homer Bailey, and Kyle Lotzkar. Throw in Danny Dorn, Chris Dickerson or (if you get Baldelli and are convinced he’s healthy) Drew Stubbs if we have to. The Reds’ system is gaining some depth; I say use some of it to get a game-changing hitter in his prime.
Ellis/BP/AGon give you 3 players for 2 positions; Hairston can fake playing anywhere; maybe the Mayor can impart some defensive wisdom on Votto.
Ryan Freel? Trade him for either a decent prospect or payroll relief. Someone has to love his scrappiness.
***
As for Yankee fanboydom, Damon is 34, coming off a career year, and is yet another lefty bat. But at least he's expensive.
The Reds already have a player like Cabrera - Drew Stubbs.
Chad Moeller hits as well as Paul Bako. That's not an endorsement.
Posted by: sidnancy | September 26, 2008 at 04:01 PM
I think the Yanks should re-sign Pudge as I'm not sure Posada will be the same kind of catcher he was defesively. If they did would a package that included Jose Molina be an upgrade to what you already have?
Posted by: YanksFanSince78 | September 26, 2008 at 04:06 PM
YanksFanSince78:
The Reds had Chad Moeller on their roster last year. He's worthless behind the plate and is a waste of a roster spot. Hanigan is 20x the catcher that Moeller is. Moeller is garbage and has zero trade value (even as a throw in), so let's just forget about him completely.
Damon is a pretty good player, but he is getting older and his salary is somewhat undesirable.
Melky Cabrera was average last year and has been pitiful this year. He may turn it around, and then again, he may not. He's the only intriguing part of the deal that you proposed (mainly because of his age), and he's really not that intriguing at all.
Harang did have an off year this year, but he was dominant in 2006 and 2007. His value is at a low point at the moment, but he'd still pull quite a bit more than Damon/Cabrera/Moeller. That package just isn't appetizing at all to the Reds (or to anyone else for that matter).
Posted by: AlphaZero | September 26, 2008 at 04:12 PM
Ok AlphaZero:
I'll let it go. I just felt that the Reds had a need for:
a) base stealing (Phillips led with 23 in 33 sttmpts whereas Damon was 29 of 37).
b) a short term solution (FA after 09) until the youngsters were ready.
c) a true lead off hitter (Hairston in unproven and a FA and Patterson MUST be dating Baker's daughter if he's back playing for you next year) who would bat behind phillips, votto and bruce.
d) a proven bat (great offesive #'s over his career as a lead off guy). His current stats would lead the Reds in almost every category)
e) good club house veteran leadership.
Guess not.
No disrespect inteneded to the Reds fans.
Posted by: YanksFanSince78 | September 26, 2008 at 04:29 PM
oh and a winning attitude to change the sucky culture that permiates every Ohio based team (I'm based in Cleveland, OH so I can say that). Damon has been in the playoffs almost every year from 01 to 07. Now that Griffey's gone who's your veteran leader on the field now?
Posted by: YanksFanSince78 | September 26, 2008 at 04:34 PM
They Should Keep Hariston, Patterson, release Freel, Hopper, Weathers trade Bailey to the Rangers for Gerald Laird, and Nelson Cruz, Sign Juan Cruz, Mark Kotsay
Posted by: joeyvotto | September 26, 2008 at 04:47 PM
YanksFanSince78:
Those things are all well and good, but it's an entirely different story when the Reds have to give up an ace in Harang in order to acquire a bit of veteran leadership, a few stolen bases, etc. Of course the Reds wouldn't mind having those things, but that's just not a reasonable return for Harang in any way shape or form. That's all that anyone is saying here.
You can't honestly think that a so-so CF prospect, an older but somewhat above average LF with a large contract, and a worthless catcher could net a guy who was an ace in 2006 and 2007, was injured for most of 2008 but finished the year strong, and who is signed to a very reasonable deal for a few more years. That's just not the way things work, not even for the Yanks.
Posted by: AlphaZero | September 26, 2008 at 04:50 PM
I hear what you're saying. I just took exception to rating Damon an avg major league player when his stats surpassed every player on your roster in all categories except HRs.
If the Yanks were to trade for Harang and gave up someone like a Hughes, Kennedy, Jackson, etc I would be upset. However we have a need to free up space for other aging of/dh types and we can afford to cover Harangs 25 mill over the next 2 years. If Harang were traded to any other team for AA prospects would that make you feel better? With the emergence of Volquez and Cueto that's probably going to happen becuz I doubt they'll trade Arroyo. So if you're dealing from an area of strentgh Harang is going to be the one to go. I'm calling my shot right now.
Posted by: YanksFanSince78 | September 26, 2008 at 05:08 PM
the only way i could see the reds trading harang is if they were able to sign someone like derek lowe to fill his spot if that happened trading harang wouldnt hurt as much but if it was to the yankees i would personally want one of hughes or jackson in return
Posted by: redsfan | September 26, 2008 at 05:27 PM
The point is that I'd prefer not to deal Harang at all. He is a workhorse (200+ IP pretty much every year) and he won 16 games in 2006 and in 2007 despite the fact that his supporting cast was god awful. Volquez and Cueto are great young flamethrowers, but a guy like Harang goes deep into games and brings stability to the rotation. I personally don't think that Harang is going anywhere (especially not for a package like that), and if you think that a little over $10 million a year for 2 years is too much to pay for an ace like Harang, then you're living in a fantasy land. I know the Reds are a small market team, but that doesn't mean that they can't handle their share of $10 million contracts (as long as they're good contracts).
And really, even if you're dealing from a strength, that doesn't mean that you can just afford to give guys away for almost nothing. Quite frankly, I'd have a tough time giving Harang up for Hughes AND Kennedy. Harang is (or at least has been) an ace. Hughes apparently can't stay healthy, and Kennedy has shown next to nothing at the major league level. They have both decreased their value over the past year. I think that you may be over-valuing the Yankees' prospects a bit.
Finally, I'm not really sure why you believe that Harang would be the first guy out the door, but personally, I would imagine that Arroyo would be more of a candidate for a trade than Harang. Their contracts are similar and Harang is clearly the superior hurler. Why wouldn't the Reds hang onto him?
Posted by: AlphaZero | September 26, 2008 at 05:37 PM
I am certainly in the minority I'm sure, but money ball strategy says to trade Brandon Phillips rather than center the team around him. He is under control at a below market level price, during the peak of his career, and will help to add talented position prospects and fill multiple holes.
Unfortunately, the Reds don't look like contenders in 2009. They do look like contenders in 2010 with a surplus of quality starters and the emergence of Volquez as a legit ace.
I don't buy the addition of one RH power bat in LF or 3B suddenly turning the Reds into contenders overnight.
I'd rather make smart moves by trading Phillips and Harang to teams for young talent in order to get quality players at all positions of need.
Posted by: davidmp2 | September 26, 2008 at 05:52 PM
screw moneyball, the problem isnt phillips on the team, its phillips in the middle of the order. get better players slide him down to 6th, I'm not trading a guy who is your only good defender, a gold glove defender at that. Also if we wanted to slide him to SS its an option, not too many 2B you can say that about, especially with his unmoneyball numbers, which are still pretty damn good
Posted by: temmp55 | September 26, 2008 at 10:26 PM
Damon is still a great player I'd love to have him, but if I'm trading harang, its gonna be for some youth, not someone as old as damon. plus i don't think the yankees would want to do that anyway.
Posted by: temmp55 | September 26, 2008 at 10:28 PM
I like the idea of moving B. Phillips if Valaika is ripping the cover off the ball next year. I think a mid-season trade of Phillips and Arroyo could land some huge prospect talent, while shedding some payroll, so long as it's used to sign Holliday in 2010. If Walt Jocketty can entice a healthy Cordero to waive his no-trade clause, I think he could easily be traded to a contender mid-season for a steal. I would love to see the contracts of Cordero and Arroyo shed.
I'm indifferent to Phillips, but am beginning to believe that his highest trade value might be within the next year or so. I'm very worried that he doesn't have the attitude to improve on his fantastic 2007. His 2008 was a flop comparatively, and I don't think his approach at the plate is sustainable long-term. He may have already peaked. Not to mention his show-boating style on even routine defensive plays irks me to no end.
I hate to concede a year, but I am willing to concede 2009 if it increases our chances for 2010 and beyond.
I'm ready to go young and not look back. I think the only veteran contract worth keeping is Harang's, as he is the anchor of the pitching staff.
Posted by: wanderinredsfan | September 27, 2008 at 02:36 AM
There is no way the Reds should sign or trade for Holliday. He will be overpaid for either way. The difference in his home vs away stats are incredible. He's good, but not worth what someone is going to pay.
I still say spend a little more (90 mil total payroll) and get O. Hudson and Mark Teixeira = great lineup and great defense = easy playoffs.
Posted by: maus | September 27, 2008 at 10:42 AM
P.S. Look at Mark Teixeira career stats in GABP -- projected over a year he would hit 75 HR's and 187 RBI's. Yeah, I know he's only had 49 plate appearances there, but still. WOW! Well worth $24M/year.
Posted by: maus | September 27, 2008 at 10:51 AM
"Yeah, I know he's only had 49 plate appearances there..."
Are you talkin about his time with the Angels? If you're talkin about the Angels then you mistyped... Tex has 52 GP but has 189 PA. Im not arguing... I agree he is worth 24 mil/year.
Posted by: #1 Angels Fan | September 27, 2008 at 04:13 PM
Hairston and Dickerson were both impressive this year but both have histories of being injury prone. I would like to see the Reds acquire a legit leadoff hitter and a solid right handed bat. Not necessarily someone who will hit 40 home runs but someone who will hit for average and drive in clutch runs. Encarnacion is horrible in the field and his hitting is not consistent. Bailey has great stuff but still does not know how to pitch. I believe that both have trade value though and could be part of a package to bring in a big bat as the free agent market this year is pretty lean.
Posted by: jd513 | September 27, 2008 at 04:25 PM
1) Sign Teixeira and Lowe
2) Trade Arroyo and Bailey
3) Acquire Coco Crisp and Salty
4) Find new SS...maybe try and pry Brignac away from TB?
Crisp
Phillips
Bruce
Teixeira
Votto
EE
Salty
SS?
Posted by: Redlegs28 | September 27, 2008 at 06:58 PM
Would you want Walt to trade for Maglio, or Willingam or sign a big bat, and do you want him to get a starting catcher or backup for Hanigan
Posted by: joeyvotto | September 27, 2008 at 07:14 PM
If the Yankees want Harang and/or Arroyo, all conversations start with Austin Jackson in the deal. Period. We dont need no old players nor ones that have had enough time at the ML level and have proven they CANT succeed at this level ... we need youth and that youth has to have talent. If Jackson isnt the first guy on the list of "PLAYERS" that it would take to get either or both ... I tell the Yanks to go pack sand.
Posted by: Gunner65 | September 27, 2008 at 11:36 PM
Like it or not, Jocketty likes to make a splash on the trade market if he has the talent available. When he joined the Cardinals, it didn't take long for him to acquire Mark McGwire, and that was after he'd put together a quality team in '96 that St. Louis hadn't had in a while. Jocketty builds teams with veteran leadership and young talent, the youth lending energy and enthusiasm to the vets, the vets providing leadership and know-how to the youth.
Jocketty can't get by selling off insignificant parts anymore, but I can see him going for that big name trade once again. A right-handed OF bat, Matt Holliday of course. The pieces are there: Bailey, Thompson, Valaika/Janish, Frazier/Stubbs, and Burton/Bray for a ML piece. It might be hard to swallow, but he'll lock Holliday up with a backloaded contract and the GAB will help ease the home/road split issue.
I really don't think Jim Edmonds is a bad idea. He's still decent in CF(way better than Griffey or Bruce) and his bat would play well in GAB for $4-5 million tops for one year. Then there's the Jocketty connection and some of his best moments came in Cincy.
All of a sudden the Reds look as good a team as any, if you ask me.
Posted by: mateodh | October 09, 2008 at 10:21 AM