Jake Peavy Rumors: Thursday

I like that they are slowing down, because I dont want the freaking braves to trade away Hanson along Schafer, Johnson/Escobar, Morton/Reyes, AND another prospect...
I think doing that will hurt the Braves more then gaining from Peavy, this year. Idk bout the future, but thats messing up your infielder and starting rotation options for 2009....

Yeah well I hope we don't ruin it. If that proposed deal is true it is a great haul for us. If we can get better great but Jake would need to ok something to an AL team for sure.

14 clubs is an interesting number considering Peavy has only signed off on five possible teams. In any case, I certainly like the initial ATL offer (provided it's Escobar and not Johnson). Maybe add a Rohrbough or other quality pitcher and it's very nice.

The first person commented that it will be better for the Padres when the other four free agent pitchers are off the market.

The opposite is actually true. It's a good idea for the Padres to slow things down a bit, but if they wait until those pitchers are off the market, they might not get as much for Peavy or be able to trade him at all.

Of the teams that Peavy is willing to be traded to, the Braves probably offer the Padres their best ROI on a trade. What if the Braves get antsy and go ahead and sign Lowe to a multi-year deal? Or if other teams that are in the running sign one of these free agents it weakens the Padres position because there is less competition.

It's much better for them to get something done before those other pitchers begin signing deals.

Lets say Burnett resigns with Toronto, D. Lowe goes to Boston, CC goes to New York and Sheets signs with the Dodgers or Brewers. Then where does that leave Atlanta and the Dodgers (if brewers) So basically there will be less competition but there will be a greater desire as their are less options for those teams. Atlanta might then get anxious and overpay for Peavy to secure an ACE.

I'm not sure one can definitively state whether it's beneficial to the Padres that they unload Peavy before other quality pitchers relocate through free agency or trade. I can see arguments for both sides. The number one most meaningful fact to me is that Peavy is a great pitcher. How many of those are available? That's really all that matters. Everything else is secondary. Distantly secondary in the case of Peavy due to his contract status especially.

Tomfromsd,

You are basing your argument on the fact that the Braves have to sign Peavy, and that there are 14 teams that SD can make a deal with. Neither of those ideas are true.

With a no trade clause, there are only select teams that Peavy will play for and of those select teams there are only a few that have a good enough prospect package to entice SD to trade Peavy. They don't have to trade him, but the other teams also don't have to trade for him. Either way, the number of suitors will drop as those suitors begin to sign free agents, and the fewer the number of suitors the worst that it will be for SD. Towers has said that it will take a package that blows him away to trade Peavy. Don't you think the more teams that are involved the more likely that one of them will throw out a great package to beat out the competition?

As a Brave fan, I would love to have Peavy, but I don't want to leverage our future either. We became the franchise that we are by bringing up talent from our farm system and developing that talent. Now that talent that we brought up has gotten old and we have seen a few down years, but if we continue to develop our guys in the farm we can be back to form in a year or two, and we're fine with waiting a few years for that to happen. You seem to think that once the other options are gone, the Braves will be forced to just trade whoever SD wants to get Peavy. That's just not true. Schuerholz still calls the shots over here and he would not panic and give you whatever you want. If we can't make a reasonable deal happen, I'd rather have a lower level SP like Lowe than trade away all of our top prospects.

Tim-

The $50 million dollar figure speaks of the the 33.4 million owed to Loshe, Waino, and Carp in 2011 plus Peavy's salary would be $50 million. Which the Cards could afford if they plan on re-signing Albert.

Oh an DAAAAAAAAA BRACES DA BRAVES BA BRAVES

although they seem to be the frontrunner at the moment, i am also curious as to whether or not the want to put their future on the edge while trying to get an ace. I could see where a Burnett or someone might make more sense. the poster who talked about free agency as opposed to trade made a lot of sense with that and i think the Braves might be better suited going via free agency so they can keep prospects and have a reasonable offseason.

I'm going have to agree with "jdfloyd." The Braves can get Lowe for cheaper then Peavy, and he is a affective as Peavy when healthy. Their is no telling the Peavy can stay healthy. As you seen in the past, he has been hurt.

So, Braves should offer a contract to Lowe (2-3 year, $17 million-$27 million) and Burnett (3-4 year, $30 million-$50 million). They will still have money left over for a left-field power hitter.

Keith Law know his stuff!! If that deal was offered it would already be done. Any way unfortunately it probably wont be much easier to get Lowe. From what I have read he may be looking for something like 15+ for year. That seems a little pricey.

Any body an ESPN insider member? I would like to know specifically what Law had to say but its Insider only.

So if Keith really thinks that, I wonder what he think would be a good starting point. Maybe one of Schafer or Hanson plus a middle infielder and some lower level pitching? (add in some fillers of course like Jones, Lillibridge, Reyes)

"Their is no telling the Peavy can stay healthy." and "... just don't see Peavy having the longevity to become a great pitcher."

Peavy was down for a month this yr and a month a few season back. Other than that, he is a very consistent 200ip+ pitcher. And having the longevity to become a great pitcher? Pretty sure he already is a great pitcher.

I do agree that signing a FA pitcher might make more sense than trading for Peavy and giving up the prospects. But if you're worried about Peavy's possible injury future (who has a clean past) and you want to sign Burnett after all those innings he pitched this yr with his checkered past? And signing an aging Lowe, who is great, but not an ace to a long deal? Those contracts are guarentees to bite you in the ass.

Jdfloyd, I've questioned the relevance of Peavy going to the Braves from the get-go.

I personally don't think the Braves are just one starter away from WS contention, which would be the ideal scenario for any team wanting to trade for Peavy. I'm not sure it's wise for the Braves to do it, but obviously as a Padres fan I could get excited (even though Hanson isn't really the can't miss SP I'd ideally hope to get - he projects as a 2 or 3, not a David Price or Clayton Kershaw-type prospect).

But then again, if Peavy can't make that difference for you, Lowe certainly won't. And maybe you don't have to give anything up, but I hate to see what he's going to cost in today's market, and if that contract doesn't come back to haunt the team that signs him.

And whilst I agree with you that there will only be a limited number of teams who can offer what SD wants and actually want to do it, there will be more teams "unofficially" in it than we expect. I think that the list of 5 teams was thrown out there to emphasize the fact that Peavy will have his say, but it was also said that any proposal will be considered, even if it doesn't come from an obvious destination. For example, I'd think that even though Peavy would prefer an NL team, the Angels would be higher on Jake's list than, say, the Mets. It would be a mistake to narrow the potential destinations to five.

You can read Law's comments on the Atlanta Journal's Braves blog. Some one has posted them. That's where I copied them from. Its Ajc.com if any one is interested.

No man he means that offer is way too much for Peavy.

http://www.ajc.com/blogs/content/shared-blogs/ajc/braves/entries/2008/10/22/jake_could_make.html

Its towards the bottom... some body posted two separate exerts from Laws article. The Bradbury article is also on there some where.

"That package includes Atlanta’s top pitching prospect (Hanson), an established big-league middle infielder (Escobar or Johnson), and another of Atlanta’s top five prospects (Schafer). It’s completely out of line with the prices paid for other top-flight starters in the last two years, including the most directly comparable deal in Haren, where the A’s took bulk prospects over established major-league players. And that’s before we consider the questions about Peavy’s elbow."

"The Padres will have to lower their demands to get a deal done — and Padre fans should lower their expectations as well."

LOL at guys like bkoke, youbehindme, superchargers and the other few Padre fans who think they should get a kings ransom for Peavy. Now a credible ESPN insider says that that deal would be TOO much for the Braves to give.

^ I hope Wren is paying attention to people like Keith Law, baseball people that know their ****.

what keith law fails to mention is that greene would be included in the deal.

so because some ESPN insider says its too much the deal is impossible? the same deal that was proposed by another baseball executive. its just a matter of opinion.

other braves fans were giving the same argument when the executive proposed this deal. now all of a sudden kieth law agrees with the braves point of view and its laugh at the padres fans? padres fans arent the only one talking about a deal like that.

cc sabathia was a rental for half a year and still got a top 20 prospect that is rated better than any of the prospects the braves would be sending in that deal.

peavy is better than harden. they got 2 top prospects and 2 major league ready middle of the rotation lefty pitchers who had a pretty decent rookie years with 2 other decent prospects thrown in.

and peavy greene is too much for escobar, hgh schafer, and hanson projected 2-3 starter. not likely.

Give it up Bkoke. Hanson can be had but not with Schafer and Escobar. Every one but one nameless AL GM and Padres fans thinks this speculative offer is entirely too much. Green has negative value. No one wants Green including the Padres. So if your some how implying Law would have a much different perspective on the deal because the great Khalil Green is included is silly.

Sorry bkoke, Keith Law is the most credible baseball person to state his take on the Peavy offers. The A's didn't get great talent in return after C. Gonzalez, so the Padres will likely not get anything great after G. Hernandez. Throw in Kelly, a pitcher like Reyes or Morton and a lower level pitching prospect (A-level) and that's what Towers can expect to get for Peavy.

Don't like it still, then fine because you'll just be keeping an unhappy pitcher even longer and prevent him from being on a winning team.

If there is one thing I have learned from these "Peavy to Braves" talks is that Braves fans are rude! Yes, us Padres fans are hoping to get the world in return for Peavy because he is the only reason (and Maddux) I went to games last season. We think the world of him. And if we put up the idea of a big package such as Shafer, Hanson, and the middle IF, we are probably overshooting. But that doesn't mean you have to laugh your a**es off at our ideas when some baseball execs think our ideas aren't that far off...

The difference between Law and some nameless executive is that Law is putting his name behind his opinion. If he turns out to be way off on what the Padres get in return, his reputation takes a hit. You can't exactly say the same thing about an anonymous source. Also, in case you don't realize, Law is a former member of the Blue Jays FO, so this isn't just some sportwriter running his mouth.

how does his rep take a hit?

so he says that is too much and it the deal happens what?

your fired!

gimme a break

^ bkoke, face it dude, Greene is not that good a player. Not only that, but why in the hell would Wren be interested in him since he already has a better shortstop in Escobar. And need I remind you that unlike Escobar, Greene is a free swinger and Francoeur already brings enough of that their lineup.

Sorry to burst your bubble, but adding Greene to the deal is not going to increase your chances of getting a player like escobar. It would be pointless to do from the Brave's perspective.

If you think Greene should be valued as an even an adequate offensive player, you are kidding yourself. He was one of the worst regulars in the league offensively last year and he's scheduled to earn 6.5 million this year. Sure he will likely bounce back at least some this season, but to think last season should just be ignored is ignorant.

Face Padre fans, the only above average position player the Padres have is Adrian. Other than that, not looking too good.

And we know towers wants atleast two pitchers in return. Law already said it could be Morton and a lower level pitching prospect (A-ball), like Medlin or Locke.

im sorry everyone is kieth law two brave writers (fans) and the fans

bkoke, don't be so upset about the fact that you're not going to get everything you want in return for Peavy. If Peavy is traded, the package is return will be of less value than the one Oakland got for Haren.

khalils splits show that his performance is from being psyched out from petco park. last year was terrible but the guy is only 28 years old. im sure he not declining he just had a bad year.

31 doubles 4 triples 15 homers
30 doubles 2 triples 15 homers
26 doubles 2 triples 15 homers
44 doubles 3 triples 27 homers

all that done while playing half his games in the black hole. no value at all.

Nixa37 is right on the mark. And I hope they go quality. I figure a fair deal is Hanson, Gorkys, and some low level pitching prospect.

But at this stages the Padres won't take that. And they shouldn't, right now. Towers has been good as hosing GMs in the past (getting Chris Young and Adrian comes to mind.) So Towers should continue to keep looking at the trade market.

Those 3 along with Law... that's 4 out of 5 who have specifically addressed this proposed deal. That's pretty good. Also, I would think Braves, and Padre's writers would be fairly good sources on this deal considering its a proposed deal between the BRAVES and PADRES.

far less than for Haren?

and why is that?

peavy is the better pitcher and kevin towers is not an idiot.

Law thinks that because he is of the opinion that Peavy is a major injury risk. That's just his opinion. Personally I am not so concerned about injuries, I just don't want to give up the whole farm.

"So far they Braves have Hanson who is as good a prospect as David Price. Schafer is the next Carl Crawford/Grady Sizemore adn Escobar is going to be the same caliber as Reyes and Ramirez when he gets a few more years under his belt (even though he is older than both.)"

good call

I didn't claim to list a Padre's writer. My point was Braves writers are pretty relevant in this case because the Braves are the team involved and their sources are close to negotiations. I have not seen any articles from Padre's writers so feel free to share ?

"far less than for Haren?

and why is that?

peavy is the better pitcher and kevin towers is not an idiot."

Can you read?

"That package includes Atlanta’s top pitching prospect (Hanson), an established big-league middle infielder (Escobar or Johnson), and another of Atlanta’s top five prospects (Schafer). It’s completely out of line with the prices paid for other top-flight starters in the last two years, including the most directly comparable deal in Haren, where the A’s took bulk prospects over established major-league players. And that’s before we consider the questions about Peavy’s elbow."

READ some more.....

Keith Law: "If I was Atlanta’s GM, Hanson and Heyward would be off limits, and I wouldn’t include Escobar. Johnson, Flowers, and maybe a now starter like Reyes or Campillo? Would probably have to add a good A-ball prospect. At that point, you’re talking about something more in line with what Oakland got for Harden."

"You should maybe consider reading some other forums, before trying to discredit someones comment without actually doing anything to disprove it. I am actually happy this deal is not going to go through, I don't think any of those prospects are good enough to be at the center of a trade for Peavy."

First off, who cares even if someone said esocbar is on the "same level" as ramirez and reyes. Any realy baseball fan knows that isn't true so I don't see why this was brought up in the first place. If anything, you and the few Padre fans that come on make it out that Escobar isn't all that good to begin with. Now that is also a false statement and one only delusional Padre fans would make so they can add him to the big haul of prospects expected in return for Peavy. LMAO

i guess im not the one who cant read no?

"you and the few Padre fans that come on make it out that Escobar isn't all that good to begin with"

once again you need to get your facts strait. ive never said anything like that. in fact ive said that escobar has very good with solid OBP and decent power/speed. go back the last few days ive multiple times he is an above average shortstop.

By David O'Brien

October 23, 2008 2:13 PM | Link to this

Jim, agreed. It’s been speculated on what the Dodgers MIGHT offer, but again, I think that speculation is a bit far-ranging and ambitious. I don’t think they’d give up half the players whose names have been thrown out on the blogosphere and internet, and in print in some publications….

I think Wren, while one who’s willing to move quickly in these matters, is also prudent enough not to mortgage the farm and bid “against himself” so to speak. He’ll have a good idea what other clubs are willing to part with before he gives up more than he’s comfortable giving up for Peavy. Or at least I think that’s the case. We’ll find out, I’d imagine

Obviously Hanson is a tier below David Price, but I don't think the Rays would even consider trading Price straight up for Peavy. Among the pitching prospects available in a Peavy deal, Hanson is right at the top of the list in terms of value.

As for Schafer, he was a top 30 prospect coming into this season, and after struggling coming off the suspension he raked at AA. I can't imagine he would drop in the prospect rankings after the year he had.

Honestly, if Padres fans don't think any of these guys are good enough to build a Peavy deal around, then I can't see how you would ever be satisfied.

cwilli specifically, if none of these guys are good enough to be at the center of a Peavy trade, then who actually is?

"saying peavy is an injury risk is just trying to make excuses obviously if they are that worried about him getting injured they wouldnt be trying to trade for him to pay an average of 15 million a year"

But then why would the Padres be trying to trade, especially when they just signed him to a long-term deal? Sounds to me like a salary dump more than anything else.

I was the one who posted Price and Hanson's stats for this season. I didn't do it to suggest Hanson was David Price. My point was they had very similar numbers,are both 6'6, and Hanson is a year younger, yet he gets no respect as a top prospect.

because the padres have holes in alot of spots and trading a guy like peavy could fill multiple needs. they arent willing to spend money and need to rebuild

While Law doesn't say it directly, I interpret his mentioning the Haren deal as the most comparable deal and then saying that's before the injury concerns implies that the Padres should expect something similar to what Haren netted the A's, but possibly a little less.

he still has said nothing about peavy getting less than haren he only suggest that he will get more in line with what haren got. you cant put words in his mouth and this injury talk is speculation of what could happen. peavy has had minor injuries, never any surgery, and no one including doctors can predict an individals ligament not holding up.