Mets Closer Situation

Relievers can be difficult to predict, which is why the FA route rarely is successful. That said, I'd love for the Mets to take a look at Jeremy Affeldt - not to be the closer, but to add a quality arm that has had Major League success as a reliever. No way they should sign K-Rod, but Fuentes is intriguing. 82 K's in 62+ innings? Not bad. And he should be cheaper than K-Rod. Right?

When you are a team like the Mets aren't you better off overpaying and accepting less risk?

I look at the 2008 Yankees as an example. The game plan to rely on Hughes/Kennedy was a good idea. However, they didn't have insurance against poor performance or injury. By overspending and landing a guy like Lohse they would have been able to hedge against the risk.

The Mets are in a similar boat. They could go cheap, save themselves $7m or so next year and HOPE that one of those lesser guys pay off. Or, you can go all in, land a top 10 closer, and realize that every single game counts. Just a few saved games difference between K-Rod and Gregg are what separates a post-season run vs going home after game 162.

For other teams with more limited resources I completely agree that you should explore lower cost/high risk players. But what good is the extra dollar savings to the Mets if it is the difference between playing in the post-season or not?

Kevin Gregg could maybe come fairly cheap (player wise) from Florida and will make +/- 5 Million in arbitration this year. After losing the closer job to Lindstrom in September, he will be expendable and was not as effective the 2nd half of the season. Can he be successful in the large NY market? Good question, he does not have really over powering stuff to begin with, but then Street does not either. Gregg would certainly cost less to acquire trade wise, though the Mets would retain control of Street for a longer period of time.

what if the cubs and mets began to talk about a trade for beltran? here me out now, i know that rumor kind of spun out of control, but say the cubs re-sign wood. would they discuss a deal for beltran starting with marmol, thereby making marmol the closer? we know how much minaya loves latin players, marmol's still very cheap and will continue to be for another few years and is absolutely nasty. i love the kid and i'd hate to lose him, but i'm not particularly jazzed about the free agent outfielders out there, and relievers can be replaced, as andrew pointed out. you can live with fukudome in right if you have someone like beltran in center. that's pretty damn good defensively too, even with soriano in left. are the mets ready to promote f-mart yet? i know that marmol alone isn't enough for beltran, but it could get started there i think...

Yea maybe like Carlos Marmol, Rich Hill, Jose Ceda, Tyler Colvin for Carlos Beltran

it wont ever happened, carlos marmol is untouchable (trading wise) maybe jeff smardja, kosuke fukudome, and a minor leaguer, (gotta take there contracts.) if marmol was the mets closer and had 45 chances he would save 42/45 and thats worth more then baltran and i know he had 27 homers and 112 rbis but marmol is the next maiano rivera.

supermets:
Yea we all know that the Mets wouldn't do that because New York is all about winning now but the prospects that i listed are the types of players the Mets would receive from any team if they decided to let Beltran go...A young Closer/dominant SetUp Man .... A young highly touted pitcher that had a bad year... a young left handed pitcher with alot of stamina to eat innings and develop in the minors and a corner outfielder/first basemen prospect

Why would the Mets trade Beltran for Marmol when they can get K-Rod for just money? I am probably Marmol's biggest fan...but I can't see them being alright with this. If it did work, 2 things would have to happen:

1. A big contract would have to be moved from the Cubs (Marquis)
2. I would think Pie would have to be included

So Marmol, Pie, Marquis, and maybe another prospect for Beltran.

From the Cubs standpoint, Beltran is one of the very few guys in MLB worth moving Marmol for.

From the Mets...as good as Marmol is...I just can't see moving Beltran, but who knows.

"Forgive me if it is old news, but what ever happened to Billy Wagner?"

Wagner had season ending surgery and is out for 09 as well.

"what if the cubs and mets began to talk about a trade for beltran?"

Beltran has a full no trade clause in his contract.

I personally think the mets should acquire Huston street and sign Beimel from the dodgers. While also getting rid of Schoenweis and Heilman.
I really dont have much of a problem with feliciano and ayala isn't that awful he just had a down year like street and heilman. All three had good numbers previous years.

If the piece is Soto, the deal wouldn't require a top prospect on the Cubs' part. But, I'm 99% sure Soto is untouchable from a Cubs perspective, especially if he wins NL ROY.

i really think that the yankees are the only organization that really doesn't care about money spent. i don't believe the mets are willing to throw every penny they have at k-rod, new stadium or not. a closer doesn't solve all your bullpen issues. that said, the mets probably believe they can re-build their bullpen without giving up arguably their best player.
and i think the comment about marmol being untouchable was regarding a trade (the cubs probably deem him untouchable). the only reason i put the idea out there in the first place was to see if there was a way the cubs could get beltran. as i said before, the free agent market for outfielders doesn't excite me much. sorry to be the guy that wants to get a hold of every other team's best player...

I really don't think the Mets should sign K-Rod. Here's why.

The Mets bullpen is trouble all over the place. The Mets bullpen was bad with Wagner closing, and Wagner's actually a pretty good closer. Signing K-Rod would limit the funds to be used on the rest of the pen, unless the Mets plan to spend the 15-ishMM K-Rod will cost + 3-4MM on another reliever. Add multiple relievers, not K-Rod. The pen will just blow the leads in the 7th-8th.

And, of course, that WHIP is scary, and not in a good way. I'll take a 1.29 WHIP from a starting pitcher, but from a reliever who pitches 1 inning a game, no way. And not one who's getting a long term deal.

I could see a Mets-Street deal though. His arbitration raises will be affordable (he won't get that much this year since he lost the closing spot mid-year and thus didn't rack up a lot of saves). Mets fans...what prospects would probably be offered for Street?

Fuentes would make some sense for the Mets, but I'm picking up 3-4 guys and building up a pen. Add one higher level guy in a Street/Ayala/Gregg or go really high with Fuentes, then pick up a few scattered types to patch up the pen.

Melonis-you're right. a trade for beltran porbably wouldn't be highlighted by a reliever. however, i don't think it's totally ridiculous either. the mets know, better than anybody, that the quickest way to lose a season is a crappy bullpen. marmol's numbers speak for themselves, and he was an all-star in his second full season. he's making $400,000 and is under control for 3 more years or whatever it is. somebody mentioned hill. his ship has sailed in chicago, he'll never pitch for lou again, but don't forget he won 13-14 games in 2007. he's a typical change of scenery type. pie is only 22, has lots of upside still, and probably needs a fresh start as well. it was a little short-sighted on my part, granted, but i don't think is competely ludicrous.

I know Mets fans don't want to hear this, but their most tradable asset is Daniel Murphy. He's a guy who played over expectations, has virtually no service time under his belt, and doesn't have a position on the Mets. Don't get me wrong, I like the kid, I think he'll be a solid player, but .313 / .397 / .473 in his first taste of big league action likely doesn't paint a realistic picture of his future. His only value to the Mets comes in if he can actually handle 2B, but even Omar doesn't seem too optimistic about that. His natural position is 3B, and there are lots of teams out there looking for an affordable, productive 3B. Selling high on Murphy could be a savvy move for Omar to make.

Problem is, I just can't find any great matches that fill the Mets biggest needs: A closer, an offense oriented RH OF, and a reliable 2B who plays at least average defense and gives at least average offensive production.

If the Mets can fill those needs without trading Murphy, that's great. If they can manage to snag a righty RF, then I'd much rather see them stick Murphy in LF and deal Ryan Church for some help on the farm. But that may be unrealistic given the Mets lack of other trade options.

As for Beltran, I think the idea of trading him is shaky at best. The Mets don't really have an replacements for CF, he has a full NTC and he's owed $55 million over the next three years. All of that's going to make him very difficult to move. He'd be a great fit for the Cubs from a baseball standpoint, but I don't see them having a ton of interest in taking that money on right now. I doubt the Mets would even be all that interested in prospects anyway. Marmol would have to be a target, Pie as well to add another contestant to the Mets CF ST sweepstakes. Another candidate no one has mentioned: Theriot. I think he'd be a solid fit for the Mets. But even still, you don't get any real premiere everyday value back if you're the Mets and unless the fourth player is Fukudome, I don't see the Cubs giving up much more than that.

MEddler- Huston Street to the Mets for Daniel Murphy? A's need a 3B. Murphy plays there. There probably would have to be some modifications though.

Eric Chavez probably won't be playing 3B ever again.

Alright Ty, thats about enough.

Calling Marmol a once in a generation type pitcher is a little over the top. Here are his Y2 and Y3 numbers (I excluded Y1 due to his poor performance):

Y2: 1.43 ERA - 511 OPS - 12.46 K/9
Y3: 2.68 ERA - 508 OPS - 11.75 K/9

Now compare that to another young pitcher who started out in 2003:

Y2: 1.82 ERA - 482 OPS - 13.18 K/9
Y3: 2.67 ERA - 591 OPS - 12.16 K/9

The second player is, of course, K-Rod. Almost identical stats to Marmol. Big differences though. K-Rod posted those stats at ages 22 and 23. Marmol posted his 24 and 25. K-Rod also went to go on and make the successful transition from set-up guy to closer. His 2nd year in the league he was a set-up guy for Percival. His 3rd year he was saving 45 games as the closer (something Marmol hasn't done yet).

K-Rod has tacked on another 4 consecutive seasons with a sub 3 ERA and at least 40 saves. His K/9 still ranks near the top and his BAA is always around the bottom.

Point is, Marmol, while extremely talented, isn't untouchable. You can get similar end results from several players (including one who is a FA this year). Good set-up men abound in the game.

BTW - K-Rod is all of 10 months older than Carlos Marmol.

no trade, Beltran will and have to stay, we have good arms down the farm, Koons, Parnell, etc. I'll sign Fuentes before taking a look at KRod

Why not go out and trade for a guy like JJ Putz or Chad Cordero? Mariners are going to be rebuilding and drafted Josh Fields(hasn't signed yet though) to be the future closer and closers go through the minor league system fast. Or go for Chad Cordero(even though coming off injury) the Nats seem to have found a decent closer in Joel Hannahrah. Or if you want to take a real chance go out and sign Joe Borowski but that wouldn't solve much anyways. I say the Mets should just sign as many relievers to minor league contracts with invites to Spring Training and have them battle it out, guys like Akinori Otsuka, Al Reyes, Bob Wickman, Mike Myers, Jose Mesa, Steve Kline, Rheal Cormier, Armando Benitez, Antonio Alfonseca. All are older and up in age but you figure they wouldn't collapse at the end of the season.

But then again why would anyone listen to a Marlins fan.

I just want to see Benitez pitching against the Mets in the ninth, not on the Mets roster, we have young and good arms, they could do what Santana did on his Twins years, reliever, that is how he made his bones.

"Point is, Marmol, while extremely talented, isn't untouchable. You can get similar end results from several players (including one who is a FA this year). Good set-up men abound in the game.

BTW - K-Rod is all of 10 months older than Carlos Marmol.
"

BTW - Marmol has like 3 years of service time for ridiculously cheap salary...K-Rod will cost at least 13 or 14 mil a year.

K-Rod's already experiencing declining velocity, strikeouts, and his BAA is nowhere near Marmol's. Point is, being only 10 months older...that may worry some people.

However, fundamentally, we agree. I don't think that happens either. I'm just saying, Marmol isn't "untouchable", but there would be no reason to trade him unless it was for a guy of Beltran's talent.

What I want the Mets to do is to target 3-4 good arms. Huston Street is a good starting point, Free Agents such as Jeremy Affeldt and Juan Cruz are possibilities, and perhaps exchange a reclamation project, such as Heilman, plus prospect for someone like Rafael Betancourt, and let them duke it out for the Closers role, the losers being Set-up Men or Situational Guys.

That way, instead of Spending 15 million on just a closer, you could have your entire bullpen addressed for 15 million.

I would not trade Murphy and Evans, why not use Parnell in the BP this year? we could sign Fuentes (my choice over KRod) or KRod, Kunz should be in the bp this year, and invite as many relief pitching as you can to ST.

"Only get Street if you can trade Heilman/Sanchez straight up for him. "

Nope, not happening. Gotta give value to get value.

I believe Heilman will rebound, and should get the shot to do it in the rotation (I'm betting he's a healthy 4.70ERA/1.30 WHIP guy, which is good out of a #5.) But, he has very little value in a trade right now, much less that Street.

I wouldn't trade both Murphy AND Evans in two separate trades, but I wouldn't be fully against trading one of them straight up for a plus reliever.

Would u do a trade of Dan Murphy, Nick Evans, and Aaron Heilman for BJ Ryan?

"Heiman, nick evans and another minor leaguer like carlos muniz for street"

I do that deal. I'm high on Evans. Although I'd prefer Murphy (fills an absolute need for the A's), I'll take Evans + Heilman + whoever.

"Would u do a trade of Dan Murphy, Nick Evans, and Aaron Heilman for BJ Ryan"

I don't do that trade. I don't trade both Murphy and Evans for a reliever. I agree to take on BJ Ryan's 10MM salary for his contract years and only give up one of the two guys + Heilman. Street will cost more in prospects than Ryan due to the contract (Street will probably make about half as much as Ryan), although Ryan is a much better reliever.

Minaya needs to follow JP Ricciari's lead and get a good bullpen on the cheap.

Scott Downs and Shawn Camp were picked up off waivers. Brian Wolfe, Brian Tallet and Jeremy Accardo were picked up for basically nothing. Thats a better bullpen than half of the teams in baseball right there.

oh im sorry i meant LF everyone knows that Travis Snider is going to be the left fielder there and Rios(i no he's the right fielder) and Wells are in their outfield already but i think a trade like this would benefit the Jays and Mets at the same time..

If anything, the Blue Jays just want to eat BJ Ryan's horrid contract at this point. He is owed like $20 million over 2 years. It would be a plausible idea for the Blue Jays to dump him just based on the idea that his salary would come off the books. As most people know, the Blue Jays have plenty of arms in their bullpen. My problem is, I don't know if the Mets would give their salary dumps back to Toronto or pick up the contract and give them minimal value for Ryan.

I really like the idea of picking up JJ Putz. The Mariners are devoid of first base prospects in their system, so I'd consider trading either Nick Evans or Mike Carp, Bobby Parnell, and Aaron Heilman for Putz. The reason why there isn't a bounty for him is because he's in the last year of his contract and Seattle is obviously looking to rebuild. Perhaps Seattle could use Heilman in the rotation to go along with young arms like Brandon Morrow, Felix Hernandez, and Ryan Rowland-Smith.

Putz was one of the top three closers in baseball in '07 despite being hurt last year and he has always been well-liked in the clubhouse since his days at Michigan.

I'd also consider Huston Street but God knows what Billy Beane would want for him. In fact, I don't even think I'd pick up Billy Beane's phone calls out of fear of being ripped off.

If the Mets are to take B.J. Ryans contract they better eat Castillo's contract. Mets MUST get rid of this jobber any way possible.

"Heiman, nick evans and another minor leaguer like carlos muniz for street"

The Mets should only do this only after the Mets have liquidated Castillo.

"Would u do a trade of Dan Murphy, Nick Evans, and Aaron Heilman for BJ Ryan"

Too much for Ryan. I want to see Murphy be the starting first baseman in a year. You're moving two of the only infield ready prospects the mets really have. Maybe Evans, Heilman and a lower prospect. I still like street better than ryan.

Comments?

Also maybe eat some of Delgado's contract and replace Muniz or collazo for a Mike Carp and Move Daniel Murphy to play first base.

Shaddix:
Yea ok the Blue Jays are going to trade the Mets a Cy Young 20 gamewinner who pitched for a horrendous team with no offense and still got 20 wins and a closer who is tops in the AL to the Mets for a deal centered around an old Delgado two inconsistent pitchers in Maine and Heilman plus a crapshoot reliever and a decent but not the best outfield prospect the Mets have... SURE IT COULD HAPPEN YA JUST GOTTA BELIEVE yea ok how many times have i heard that saying

Halladay is a fa the jays won't afford in two years. Delgado has just as much homeruns as anyone in the american league (Toronto desperately needed a cleanup hitter), Heilman had a bad year but needs a fesh start and can pitch as a starter if ure willing to give him a shot. If you add Carp who had a great year at 1b in AA and Evans who is an IF that learned by force to play the OF is a decent prospect. Throw in Maine who is a # 3 starter in the AL and Parnell who has a live arm and its not such a bad deal. Plus Toronto should be rebuilding anyway. They're not going anywhere in that division.

The worst that could happen is if Toronto falls short before the deadline(which they will) they can deal Delgado for two or three prospects and still come out winning.

F-mart is overrated,and overhyped. Evans numbers were way better, plus he has more pop and plays the IF which would address the Jays needs.

The jays could probably get a better deal for Halladay somewhere else but I just really want to see Halladay throw like 15 complete games at Citifield and not have to worry about a bullpen.

It didn't occur to me that Ryan actually turned it up a whole lot in the second half as Toronto went on that tear at the end of the season, but that makes sense of course. I watched a lot of the games towards July and it seemed to me that he was struggling a lot of the time. I think the whole idea with Ryan and his contract is that Toronto feels they have guys that could do his job for a lot cheaper because they have so many arms in that bullpen. They are going to have a huge hole in the middle of that rotation with Marcum and McGowan unsure for next season with injuries and Burnett possibly leaving, so there has to be some money stored away to shore up the rotation.

On that note, I think Roy Halladay stays in Toronto and they pick up another starter to replace Burnett if he doesn't come back. They have to do that at this point.

Also, I think the Mets almost have to acquire a closer via trade with the money being given to Wagner next season. It would almost be ridiculous to put away $20 million for 2009 on two closers when only one of them is doing the job. I still say JJ Putz is a great fit for this team.

closers via free agency that are availble
Franciso Rodriguez
Brian Fuentes
Eric Gagne
closers via trade that are available
JJ Putz
BJ Ryan
Huston Street
Kevin Gregg
closers that are available for the Mets via internal options
John Maine
Eddie Kunz
Pedro Feliciano
Luis Ayala
Based on their options what way/s do you think the Mets should go?

"who remembers 2006, When the mets used like 13 pitchers as starters. That year i said they ahd a great year, which they did and evry1 agreed. But i also said that most of those guys cant keep it up. Everyone was yelling at me and there was a whole thread about how stupid i was....... LOL. I guess u guyrs r just still baby's"

Okay, so you are still stressing over something that happened on a blog in 2006, over something you may or may not have predicted, and it obviously still bothers you that you may or may not have taken some grief from a bunch of strangers discussing baseball on a blog, and we're the babies?

Moving Maine into the closers role would just be an enormous error. You move a guy out of the rotation, where he is cheap, and has shown he can be atleast a number 3 or 4 pitcher, still has upside, and you move him into the bullpen, where you have absolutely no idea how he would fair, not to mention his biggest weaknesses are bases on balls and serving up the longball. Just seems like an unbelievably bad idea. This idea seems to have become popular, and I just don't understand why. Besides all that, it forces you to have to spend money or further deplete the farm system just to get a back end guy.

"what if the cubs and mets began to talk about a trade for beltran? here me out now"

No.

"I know this sounds crazy, but if your the Mets and you really want to shake things up How bout Delgado, Maine, Parnell, Heilman, Evans and Muniz (or collazo) for Halladay and Ryan."

What? We aren't getting Alex Rios and Aaron Hill also?

Shaddix, numbers have minimal value in evaluating a minor leaguer. Especially when one guy is 19 and one is 23 and they are playing at the same level. Martinez has not come close to filling out. People freak out, not seeing any power, but 19 year olds don't hit homeruns off of 23 year olds in major league ballparks. He just isn't strong enough yet. Martinez is a sick prospect.

And again. I see literally no point whatsoever in moving Heilman or Schoeneweis. In a good bullpen, Show is a nice part. He gets out lefties, which is what he should be doing. They may have thought in signing him that he could retire RHB and LHB, but he obviously can't. But he can get out lefties and in a good pen, he won't have to do anything else. Heilman posts 3 solid years in a row and you want to dump him for nothing after one. No point at all. I bet you would be the first one going off the wall when Billy beane picks him up and he posts a 4.00/1.30 era in 190 innings next year. Let him start. They need starters, he is cheap. He wants to start. He has the arsenal of pitches to start. He is durable. Give him a shot out of spring training to win a job in the rotation, or just stick him back in the pen. If it doesn't work out, you are no worse off then you are right now and it isn't like you would be selling high on Heilman right now, his value isn't getting any lower.

The Mets need to sign JOHN SMOLTZ!!! Have him close out games.He has said he would like to play for a winner and with him in the pen they would be.

"Kunz and Heilman for Jeff Samardzija?"

Done deal

Maine shouldn't be closing. There are only three reasons, in my opinion(i.e. feel free to blast me on this), why a starter should be moved to the pen.

1. He simply isn't effective in the rotation. If he can't make it out of the 3rd inning without falling apart, try him in the pen. Example: JP Howell. Horrible starter, absolutely lights-out reliever.

2. Injury issues. Example: Kerry Wood, John Smoltz, etc.

3. Too many starters in the rotation, said pitcher is the 6th man out. Of course, ideally, in this situation, one is traded , but you have to keep some depth.