Mike Cameron's Option

yankees should take him without a doubt

Tim (or anyone else), do you think Willy Mo can still play CF? In Cincy he seemed like a stud-to-be, but Boston ruined him on the bench. I'm sure he could still mash with regular AB's, but could he be even avg in CF? If so, I'd love to see him on the Yanks.

Wily Mo is a terrible CF, and that was when I saw him with the Sox before the injuries this year. He shouldn't play anywhere but LF or DH. Watching Wily Mo defensively is painful.

As far as Mike Cameron, I'm not sure that 1 year, $9.25 is such a lock. Decent power with below average hitting and OBP. I think they would be better off trading something of minimal value to the Red Sox for Coco Crisp, who has a lot more range and speed, less power, and I think would be a better hitter in the NL than the AL.

"You can find a few stats to make any player look good. Even Scott Boras can do that. Cherry picking stats still do not make him good at hitting a baseball. Sorry pal."

He's had an OPS+ of over 100 for 10 straight seasons, and during his prime he consistently offered a .340-.360 OBP. Plus he's good for around 20 home runs and steals a season. With exceptional defense at a premium defensive position. Who cares if he strikes out a lot, he also walks a good amount as well. Even if Cameron's defense wasn't awesome, he would still be a major leaguer.

Just because a guy bats .250 and strikes out a lot doesn't mean he's worthless as a hitter.

No it does not mean he is a "worthless hitter". It does mean he is not a very good one. For $10 mil a year, I would have expected better last year. Though I can not blame Cameron for accepting overpayment.

"Just like you did with strikeouts to make him look bad. It's a two-way street, pal."

Then I would elaborate with more stats, but Cameron is already the captain of your all-star team, so it will not matter. Too many K's, too much swinging for the fence, not enough RBI's, not enough SB's for a guy with his speed, OPS averages at .788, ... oh but he did hit 4 homers in a game once. And actually, he did have a heck of a season in 2001. Which will of course be 8 years ago next year.

I actually thought Wily Mo was decent defensively with the Red Sox when he was in CF. I went to a lot of games that season and mostly sat in the bleachers, and I thought he was fine out there. By no means did he hurt the team out there. He's no Willie Mays, but you can put him out there and he'll be ok. That guy just needs an opportunity to play. He's got some serious skills that need time to develop at the MLB level. His growth was stunted from the start in Cincy and he's never had the chance to show what he can do over a full season or two.

As far as a trade of Angel Salome goes, if there were a market out there for him, the Brewers would most certainly consider trading him. Yes, he hit .360 for the Brewers AA squad this season but scouts are extremely puzzled at how a guy with a swing as awful as his managed to hit .360. The Brewers drafted a potentially great catcher in Brett Lawrie with their first pick in this season's draft and they are expected to streamline him through the farm as quickly as possible. Here's a link to some analysis:(http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2008/06/brett_lawrie.php)

Jason Kendall's contract is guaranteed for 2009 and I would imagine the Brewers would like to keep him around until Lawrie is ready. The Brewers also have a number of other decent catching prospects in Lou Palmissano, Jonathon Lucroy and Vinny Rottino.

So yes, the Brewers could consider trading Salome while his value is high after he wont he PCL batting title.

Don't forget about Johnathon Lucroy. Another very nice catching prospect in the Brewers system (was one of the 'final four' in the PTBNL list for CC).

Brewers are pretty loaded in the minors at catcher.

I'd like to see them move Weeks to CF, Hardy to 2B and bring up Escobar at SS. This could save them $9M which they could use to address pitching problems and significantly improve their infield defence.

"The Brewers have Tony Gwynn Jr. just waiting in the wings to get a shot at CF. Gwynn may not have the HR power of Cameron but he's gonna steal more bases, he's a left-handed bat that the Brewers desperately need, he sure as heck couldn't do much worse than .243/.331 and oh, the Brewers already have him under contract for around $400K."

Actually Tony Gwynn's MLE from www.minorleaguesplits.com has him lower than that. .242/.296 so yeah he can do worse than that.

Gwynn is not a starting OF he is at best a #5 OF. For Gwynn to be a starting OF he needs to up his average and take more walks or he needs to get some pop in his bat which I don't believe he will ever do.

Again Gwynn is nothing more than a #5 OF. Anyone who believes Gwynn is a starting OF you are a complete moron and you haven't really looked at what Gwynn is capable of. Cameron is by far better than Gwynn will ever be.

Mike Cameron is a very respectable hitter. His option looks like a good deal in terms of stats (he did put up respectable stats) and defense.

However, the Brewers have bigger holes that need to be filled than CF. I'm letting Gwynn and Kapler figure it out in CF and putting the money towards the starting rotation. And, for those who think Gwynn won't do well or is nothing more than a #4/5 OF, how do you know? Of course, I'm probably way too big on giving the rookies shots.

Prince Fielder, JJ Hardy, and Corey Hart are due arbitration raises. Of the 3, Fielder will get the largest payday. I'm betting one of Hardy or Fielder is traded, but even if that is not done.

Look at the rotation. Of course, I think Suppan needs to be relegated to the pen, but that'll never happen, but the Crew needs to target a starter, whether it be via a Fielder trade, CC Sabathia, Ben Sheets, or another FA starter.

I think the question you have to ask yourself is, would signing Cameron be a vast improvement over what you already have?

Cameron vs Melky

I could really care less what offense we get out of CF. Cameron does one well offensively. He hits HR and some speed. But those hrs come with lots of strike outs and a poor batting avg and at the age of 36 and 9 million.

If depfense is a priority then Ive never anyone say that Melky DID NOT provide that. In fact all indications are is that he's a great glove in CF with a cannon for an arm. If speed is what you need then for the sacrafice of a poor batavg (Cameroon hit .231) then you can go with Gardner. Whether gardner will ever be a .250 or beter hitter is up in the air but he could obviously give you more steals than Cameron's 17. Gardner had 11 sbs in about a months worth of play. So really, the only thing Cameron is going to give you that you don't have already have from Melky or Gardner is hrs. Is it really a need for a team who still hit 180 hrs despite injuries to Matsui and Posada? If so spend the money on a 1B with a bat and lets pass on Cameron.

"Actually Tony Gwynn's MLE from www.minorleaguesplits.com has him lower than that. .242/.296 so yeah he can do worse than that. "

Tony Gwynn, in 292 MLB at bats hase a .248 AVG. That is nearly identical to Mike Cameron's career average. Tony Gwynn is also thought by many scouts to be gold-glove caliber in CF. He's younger, makes better contact, steals more bases, is a left handed bat and costs about $9M dollars less. Sounds like a no-brainer to me.

"Again Gwynn is nothing more than a #5 OF. Anyone who believes Gwynn is a starting OF you are a complete moron and you haven't really looked at what Gwynn is capable of. Cameron is by far better than Gwynn will ever be."

So now you're resorting to name calling? But i'm the moron after you said that Cameron is far better than Gwynn will ever be. Gwynn has never gotten a shot to hit major league pitching everyday and still has the same career average as Cameron. And while even if Cameron is better than Gwynn, it isn't $9M worth.

"Prince Fielder, JJ Hardy, and Corey Hart are due arbitration raises. Of the 3, Fielder will get the largest payday. I'm betting one of Hardy or Fielder is traded, but even if that is not done."

JJ will get $3.5M-$4.5M from arbitration and Fielder will be around $7M-$8M. If the Brewers don't option Cameron and they non-tender Capuano (which may be expected), I took into account the arbitration numbers and they would be around $66-$76M. That leaves plenty of room to address the other "holes". Also, Craig Counsell has a $3.4M option that the club could also decide not to pick up. He was a valuable pinch hitter/spot starter down the stretch but if money gets tight for whatever reason, he could be on the chopping block.

"And, of course the bullpen arms. Not only should the Crew say sayonara to Gagne, they should add some reliable arms to the pen."

I wouldn't be so quick to say "sayonara" to Gagne. Yes, he was awful as both the setup man and the closer but once he was moved to the 7th inning, he flourished, posting a 2.78 ERA. Of course, his $10M mark is going to have to drop to somewhere around $3M, but if Gagne's willing to take that hit, the Brewers could consider him. The Brewers are going to be a bit thin in the bullpen so don't be too surprised if he's in Brewers blue next year.

"Small sample size. I would bet if Gwynn would start a full year he would put up Michael Bourn type of numbers. Which is .229/.288. That is awful for a lead off hitter."

For the same reasons you state, I feel like Gwynn could turn into a very good leadoff hitter. He has only been given a small amount of time to adjust to big league hitters. And guess what, through Cameron's first 200 AB's, he hit .204. So if you're gonna make ridiculous comments like "Cameron is by far better than Gwynn will ever be", than i'll consider myself free to use the logic that Tony Gwynn is actually on pace to be a better hitter than Mike Cameron.

Also, I don't know where you got Tony Gwynn's minor league numbers from but he actually has a minor league average of .275 and an OBP of .345. As a matter of fact, his AAA average over the last 3 seasons is .287. That's consisting of 948 AB's and in his only full season at AAA (2006) he hit .300 with an OBP of .360. So the numbers actually suggest that Gwynn gets better with increases AB's. Not worse as you so elegantly suggested.

"I wouldn't be so quick to say "sayonara" to Gagne. Yes, he was awful as both the setup man and the closer but once he was moved to the 7th inning, he flourished, posting a 2.78 ERA. Of course, his $10M mark is going to have to drop to somewhere around $3M, but if Gagne's willing to take that hit, the Brewers could consider him. The Brewers are going to be a bit thin in the bullpen so don't be too surprised if he's in Brewers blue next year."

I see someone overpaying for the "veteran" closer who won a CY. 3MM is the absolute max I'd go for Gagne. But then, the Brewers gave Suppan that ridiculous contract, so its possible that Gagne gets 5MM++ from the Crew.

On Counsell...You have to hold on to someone as your defensive sub/bench replacement and Mat Gamel and "defensive sub" should never be in the same sentence. Unless Hardy is moved to 3B (likely) to make room for Escobar, of course, in which Bill Hall becomes your backup.

"A comparable bench player could be Joe Dillon"

Comparable to Craig Counsell.

And it's very far from "likely" that Hardy is moved to 3B. If you have one of the best defensive middle infielders in the league, you don't move him to 3B to make room for a minor league prospect. If anybody changes positions, which is something that Brewers fans are all too quick to suggest in recent years, it will be Escobar to either 2B or the OF.

God, you Gwynn guys crack me up.

His .322/.319 line at Triple A this year is really inspiring.

If he sees more than 100 at bats at the Major League level, the white flag has officially been raised.

As far as Cameron, given that they have to decide within 5 days of the end of the world series, I'd exercise the option. There's almost no chance CC's coming back, so I'd rather see the money spent on a good/very good everyday player than piss it away on another overpaid starter (which almost every free agent starter is).

Cameron was a top 10-12 CF in baseball last year by any measure, unless it's K/AB which some earlier posters are apparently enamored with.

If there were a decent option close to the majors in the Brewers' system, I might be in favor of letting Cameron go. But given the circumstances, Cameron is the best option.

"Cameron was a top 10-12 CF in baseball last year by any measure, unless it's K/AB which some earlier posters are apparently enamored with."

You've gotta be kidding me! What did Mike Cameron give this team that they couldn't get from Tony Gwynn/Gabe Kapler? And those K/AB is a very important number for this team. Are you aware that the Brewers were one of only 9 teams in all of baseball to strike out more than 1200 times? And do you realize that Cameron was on pace to K 191 times had he played all the entire season?

In this league, it's all about getting younger while either staying equally or more productive. Tony Gwynn may not be an all-star CF at any point in his career but the pros of going with Gwynn over Cameron astronomically outweigh the cons.

Cameron had an excellent season in 2008, it was Doug Melvin's best FA signing in his 5 years.

For some reason, despite the widespread accetpance of OBP and SLUG and OPS, people seem to ignore these metrics with Cameron. The milwaukee fans mostly don't get Mike Cameron, and I find this sad and disappointing.

To play above average CF and have an OPS over +110 is a very, very good player, certainly worth $10 for 1 year.

Cameron is best used toward the bottom of the order, as most lower OBP, high slugging players are. Fix the lineup @1 and 2 and get Cameron in the right spot, all will be better.

Overlooked is Milwaukee is extremely shallow in OF. The worst OF Milwaukee has is Corey Hart, he was the worst everyday RF in baseball. Look it up. There is no one in the entire system to play CF. Cameron's option must be picked up.

The Brewers have been let down seriously by Bill Hall, Rickie Weeks and Corey Hart. Each have provided no value in 2008. 3b, 2b and RF are the biggest concerns on offense.

"Click on the MLE it will translate what Gwynn did this year into what he would do in MLB. "

So you're going to bank on what an unreliable website predicts a guy would do at the major league level? I'll instead look at his minor league numbers and then at what he has done in the big leagues instead of some computer estimation. That is one of the most ridiculous arguments I have ever seen.

"Cameron had an excellent season in 2008, it was Doug Melvin's best FA signing in his 5 years."

I would disagree that it was his best signing in his 5 years but you are half right in this statement. At $7M, Mike Cameron is good signing but for $10M, that would make him one of the highest paid OF's in all of baseball.

"Overlooked is Milwaukee is extremely shallow in OF."

What? First of all, why would the Brewers need to be overly deep in OF? They have Ryan Braun locked up for the next 7 years, Corey Hart, who even if they don't sign to a long term deal, they have access to for the next 3 seasons, Tony Gwynn, Mat Gamel who would likely move to OF should the Brewers decide to stick with Fielder, Cole Gillespie and Gabe Kapler. How deep do the Brewers need to be?

"The worst OF Milwaukee has is Corey Hart, he was the worst everyday RF in baseball. Look it up. There is no one in the entire system to play CF. Cameron's option must be picked up."

If the worst OF the Brewers have is a reigning All-Star, I think the Brewers are doing something right. What the hell kind of argument is this? As for him being the worst RF in all of baseball, well now you're just talking out of your rear end. Just off the top of my head I can name a worse one in the same division; Kosuke Fukudome. Want another worse one from within the division? How about the Astros Darin Erstad? Or how about whoever the Pirates throw out in RF. How could you possibly make the arguement that Corey Hart is the worst RF in all of baseball.

"So you're going to bank on what an unreliable website predicts a guy would do at the major league level? I'll instead look at his minor league numbers and then at what he has done in the big leagues instead of some computer estimation. That is one of the most ridiculous arguments I have ever seen."

MLE use park factors and league factors, along with the difficulties of each level to calculate the numbers. It's surprisingly accurate.

Now ... I really don't believe that anyone is lobbying for Tony Gwynn to play CF for the Brewers.

He's terrible. Absolutely terrible.

Gwynn put up a .659 OPS in AAA last season. In case you didn't know, that's really, really bad. The average OPS in the PCL last season was .792. So Gwynn was basically .133 points worse than the average hitter in the PCL. Not only that, but this was his second time repeating AAA, and he's 25 years old now.

How in God's name can you lobby for him?

If you want a big league regular who's probably comparable to Gwynn Jr., consider Gregor Blanco.

An OK CF if you have lots of power in the corners, but someone who otherwise should not be starting. Gwynn's faster, but he'll get on base a little less. Both are basically fourth OFs. For good clubs, anyway.

And BTW, the worst regular RF in MLB, hands down, was Jeff Francouer. Not. Even. Close.

I think the Brewers would have looked at moving Rickie Weeks via trade had he not gotten injured and required surgery in the last week of the season. The story around Weeks is that he has some of the highest potential of anybody in the league but he hasn't been able to harness that potential. There are still quite a number of front office personnel around the league that would have probably paid to see if he could unlock that potential with them but his second surgery in as many years may have put a damper on that. I think the Brewers are "stuck" waiting for Rickie to break-out. Although Rickie did perform much better once Ray Durham began getting more playing time and pushing Weeks to perform in order to play; Rickie hit .283 with a .415 OBP in September.

Rickie is one of those guys that as soon as you want to give up on him, he puts together a big month and keeps himself in the "break-out candidate" department.

With that being said, I'm not sure that moving Weeks to the OF is an option. If the Brewers did move Rickie there, that would be the 4th infielder in the last 3 seasons that they moved to the OF (Bill Hall, Ryan Braun, Matt LaPorta-even though he's no longer with the club, they moved him there-, and then Rickie Weeks).

To be honest with you, I really don't have any idea what to do with Rickie Weeks.

jay87shot- I like your reliever ideas.

The Brewers already have Jon Garland. His name is Jeff Suppan...or maybe Dave Bush (depends on Garland and Suppan's years). The Crew don't need another BOR starter, they need a frontline 1-2 type guy. I'm saying if not CC, then Lowe or Burnett.

citron1616- 7-8MM might be high. But, I'll say at least 5MM/yr for 2+ years. Behind Hudson and Ellis, the 2B FA market drops off fast, and Ellis' shoulder injuries could ward off suitors. In a weak 2B market, demand will be high, and Durham will get the cheese.

"Not sure why we are even talking about AVG, this is 2008."

Because the best players still maintain a high AVG and the problem with taking a lot of pitches without the ability to also make contact means you end up looking at a lot of K's, behind in counts and not moving runners.

Pujols is great not because he walks, but because he doesn't K and makes great contact. You can't tell me that we need a league full of Mark McGwires and Adam Dunns over a league of full of Ichiros, Tony Gwynns and Albert Pujols

BTW, what is with people saying that the Brewcrew have Kapler? Kapler signed a minor league deal this year and will be a free agent.