Offseason Outlook: Toronto Blue Jays

bosox10- I would probably say Marcum is out for the bulk of '09, although probably not all of '09. Jays shouldn't count on him for '09.

Maybe we'll have Marcum back for the world series. :)

Also I'm not sure where this Scott Downs as a starter again stuff came up but it just isn't going to happen. Wolfe is someone that will get looked at as a starter, Scott Richmond and maybe John Parrish.

The one thing that is forsure if AJ leaves the jays need another arm either via Free agency or Trade if the plan is to compete which we have to assume it is.

Also if Aaron Hill is healthy and back to his old self I still like him at Short with Inglett at 2nd.

Wells salary for 2009 is 1.5 million with an 8.5 million signing bonus; his contract has a 24.5 mill signing bonus which includes 8.5 mill installments from 08-10; but the Jays probably average out the bonus over the life of the contract, which works out to 3.5 mill a year. Either way, I don't expect Wells to ever exceed 15-20% of the team's payroll so it shouldn't handicap the team down the road or in the present time.

Tim is pretty much right about the current state of the team. Without a couple of transactions the playoffs are a longshot in the AL East. Keeping Burnett is also a longshot, but if it does happen I'd expect this team to win between 86-90 games without any other moves, and there will be some moves for sure. If AJ is kept, I'd like to see an attempt to move BJ (and maybe Overbay) for Delgado and also take a shot at signing Furcal and Juan Rivera. Those 3 additions, along with retaining Burnett and the subtraction of BJ and Overbay would keep the payroll around the same and make this a 90-95 win team, IMO.

If Burnett does leave (which is likely), then trades may have to be made but I don't think the team is in as bad shape as some people make it out to be. Marcum/Litsch/ Janssen came out of nowhere to be solid 3 and 4 starters and excellent set-up man; R Romero, Cecil and Purcey are even better prospects and Toronto seems to be good at cultivating arms. An active winter could make us comparable with the Rays and Yanks unless both these teams make massive upgrades as well, which is entirely possible. Hopefully the run differential luck will make up some of the difference.

Snider is probably the best hitting prospect in the game considering he is 20 and tore up the league. Cecil is also a top 50 pitching prospect. The Padres wouldn't get a whole lot more than that for Peavy.

I'd like to see the Jays trade away Ryan/Overbay in the offseason. Frees up millions and gets rid of expendable players (assuming Accardo/Jansen come back 100%)and the Jays could pick upvaluable prospects. This way they could either put Snider or Lind at 1st so neither had to sit, or send one to DH and pick up a 1b like Bluejays2010 said or Gonzalez with the Padres in need of a closer although other players would likely need to be included. They could even go after Huff in FA. But lets face it J.P. is out G.M., at least for one more year

"No offense Jays2010, but I watched 15-20 Jays games late last year and it seemed as if Ryan's FB was getting slower and slower, is that correct?"

Considering Ryan was out for the season last year you'd be wrong. Also Ryan isn't going down hill he missed about a year last season for Tommy John and came back better then we could of hoped he is only expendable because we have such amazing depth in the Bullpen. Carlson won't be closing it will be 1 of Downs, League or Accardo.

The lineup as it is right there I really like if a couple things happen. Snider and Lind play like they have since Cito was here, Wells Rios stay healthy. The main issues/key to that lineup is Scott Rolen and Lyle Overbay, if they can hit the ball that is a great lineup if they can't its weak.

The Jays do need another starter badly if AJ leaves which is very likely. I think the Jays could use a Good pitcher with a Extremely high ground ball rate and he will look twice as good with the jays.

No problem.

The specific number of 105 million did come up during the interview with Godfrey.

From what I got out of it, payroll will be slightly higher because of the strong dollar and more fan support, but it could rise to 105 million if the opportunity presents itself.

"No offense Jays2010, but I watched 15-20 Jays games late last year and it seemed as if Ryan's FB was getting slower and slower, is that correct?"

No, it's not. If anything, Ryan's command seemed to improve late in the season, which is what one would expect when he comes back from Tommy John surgery and is pitching in the majors within 12 months. Ryan's fastball was never as fast as people seem to think it was - when he was healthy it was 90-91, and for the most part this year he was throwing at 88-90. It's his ability to locate and throw his breaking stuff that make him deadly, and there's no reason to think Ryan won't return to his pre-2007 levels in 2009.

Tim, there is almost no way with a core bullpen of Ryan, Downs, League, Janssen Accardo, Carlson, and Wolfe and NUMEROUS options in AAA (DRomero, Parrish...) that Frasor and Tallet are going to be kept after arbitration raises. Also, I don't know why you have League as arb-eligible - he was at 2.031 and missed basically all of April, May, and June in the minor leagues, so unless you have him down as a Super2 he might still be on the MLB minimum.

And to list Casey Janssen in the rotation is a bit generous. There's almost no way he returns from a torn labrum to start pitching in the rotation - it's much more likely that 2009 will be spent rebuilding his arm strength in the pen making him ready for perhaps starting again in 2010. Scott Richmond (very consistent 6 starts this year in the majors), Brett Cecil, and even Ricky Romero are better bets to start than Janssen. Brad Mills is the wildcard, a prospect showing good stuff in the minors who may get a chance in 2009.

And Rafael Furcal? God no. He won't be worth anywhere near the dollars or term he will be asking for. JP said that his 3 offseason priorities (this was prior to the Marcum injury) were a power bat, a mid-level SP, and a SS upgrade, in that order. I think the only chance a Furcal or Cabrera make their way to Toronto is if they both find the market isn't as fruitful as they were expecting and can be had on a reasonable one year deal, similar to what happened with David Eckstein. Otherwise it's more likely guys like JJ Hardy and Khalil Greene could be targeted in a trade than a FA SS signing.

Many scouts, experts and commentators say that Ryan's unique mechanics are in baseball's lower ranks, so it would be a good idea to sell him high now before his arm breaks down and his trade value goes with it.

Here is an analysis of BJ Ryan's mechanics:
http://www.chrisoleary.com/

[edited by Tim...the site's new design struggles with longer links and it messes up formatting. So I had to shorten this one unfortunately.]