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Offseason Outlook: Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks are next in our Offseason Outlook series.  Their setup for 2009:

C - Chris Snyder - $1.85MM+
C - Miguel Montero - $401K
1B - Chad Tracy - $4.75MM
2B -
SS - Stephen Drew - $1.5MM
3B - Mark Reynolds - $400K
IF - Augie Ojeda - $550K+
IF/OF - Chris Burke - $955K+
LF - Conor Jackson - $420K+
CF - Chris Young - $1.75MM
RF - Justin Upton - $1.3MM
OF - Eric Byrnes - $11MM
OF - Alex Romero - $400K

SP - Brandon Webb - $6.5MM
SP - Dan Haren - $7.5MM
SP - Doug Davis - $8.75MM
SP - Edgar Gonzalez - $411K+
SP - Max Scherzer - $1.075MM

RP - Chad Qualls - $1.3125MM+
RP - Jon Rauch - $2MM
RP - Tony Pena - $406K
RP - Yusmeiro Petit - $400K
RP - Doug Slaten - $401K
RP - Leo Rosales - $400K
RP - Billy Buckner - $400K

Non-tender candidates: Wil Ledezma - $620K+, Chris Burke - $955K+

The D'Backs have about $55MM committed, plus arbitration raises to Snyder, Burke, Jackson, Gonzalez, Qualls, and Ledezma.  A few of those guys could be non-tendered, keeping the D'Backs under $60MM.  They started '08 at $66.2MM, though I believe the D'Backs take more of a long-term view toward payroll.  MLB.com's Steve Gilbert figures they'll have less than $10MM to spend.

The Diamondbacks were in the middle of the NL for OBP and SLG.  They have positional flexibility with Jackson, Reynolds, Tracy, and Byrnes, though only Jackson posted a strong OBP among those four. 

Looking at the market, it probably makes sense to put Jackson at first base and acquire a left fielder if possible.  Raul Ibanez, Adam Dunn, Pat Burrell, and Manny Ramirez are the top free agent left fielders.  Bobby Abreu could also fit.  However, these players will all cost more than $10MM a year.  GM Josh Byrnes says he's more likely to hit the free agent market than make trades, since the D'Backs traded so many prospects in '08.  Byrnes will have to find a bargain, maybe a Juan Rivera type.  The D'Backs also need a second or third baseman depending on where Reynolds plays.  There's just not enough money unless payroll goes up.

The team's pitching staff looks respectable, though losing Randy Johnson would hurt.  I can't see how they can re-sign him and add an offensive player for a total of $10MM.  Scherzer will have to have a big year if Johnson leaves.  With Qualls, Rauch, and Pena, it seems the pen can withstand the losses of Juan Cruz and Brandon Lyon.

It's kind of awkward having Byrnes as the highest-paid player on the team, as he could end up the fourth outfielder if Jackson plays left.  With $22MM remaining on his deal (and a no-trade clause), the D'Backs would have to take on a bad contract in return.  Nick Piecoro had an interesting idea with Luis Castillo.

Once again the D'Backs will look to improve offensively mainly through development of their young players.  Young and Upton do seem poised for breakouts.  It also seems likely the D'Backs will make a few midseason trades as they did in '08.


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Comments

I don't recall the exact figures, but didn't the d'backs say they were going in 3 year plans in terms of payroll? Something like 210 over 3 years? Anyone else know what I'm talking about?

Byrnes bad contract for Jose Guillen's bad contract? Or was that bridge burned too badly with his last stint there?

No way the Royals trade Jose Guillen for Eric Byrnes. Guillen was at least a reasonably productive power bat, although that OBP was brutal at .300. Still, considering that Byrnes is coming off an injury, and is still owed 2/22 compared to Guillen's 2/24, they might as well just hold on to Guillen. Unless for some reason Dayton Moore thinks Byrnes would be a great fit on his team, which I don't anticipate.

I think that the Diamondbacks gotta look to move Byrnes contract but the Diamondbacks really need to add another starter so I wouldn't make left field such a priority. Maybe add a Juan Rivera type left fielder and put most of the money towards adding a pitcher.

Another one that is just an idea: Castillo and Heilman for Byrnes. The Diamondbacks could at least give Heilman a shot as a starter in one of the easier divisions to pitch in, and if he failed they could move him to the bullpen. Castillo for Byrnes is obviously a previously discussed premise for a deal, and I feel like this type of deal would be more realistically for Arizona.

I'm very mixed on the Big Unit.

On one side, Randy should retire a DBack. On the other side, the DBacks have an acceptable rotation not resigning him and not adding a new pitcher.

I want to throw this out there, just as an idea. Resign Randy, and trade Doug Davis. If you look at his contract as opposed to his stats, he is at below market value for '09. That would allow RJ to get his 300th win in a DBacks uniform. Bring Johnson back on an incentive based deal.

A rotation of Webb-Haren-Johnson-Scherzer-Petit/Gonzalez would be fierce. Still the best 1-2 punch in the game (outside of CC/Sheets, but they probably won't be teammates next year).

Josh Byrnes is one of the top GM's; I think we'll all be surprised by how he goes about business this off-season.

'Awkward' is the perfect way to describe Eric Byrnes' situation. In my opinion, they have to trade him. Ideally, they could work out a salary dump somewhere and re-sign Orlando Hudson.

As far as the supposed $10MM they'll be spending, getting Carl Pavano on an incentive based 1yr deal wouldn't hurt; a trip back to the NL might be what he needs. He proved at the end of this season that he's healthy, just not effective. That's why they could grab him cheaply.

I think the D'Backs would be wise to not move Byrnes now.

It's a decent chance that 2008 for Byrnes was an anomaly built upon his injury battles and his BABIP of .207 - well below his career average.

Best to hope that 2007 was an anomaly and foist him on a stupid/competitive team at the deadline if he gets off to a hot start.

Tim, Here's an idea for a piece. A list of all 30 teams single worst contract in order of the contract's awfulness.

MickS

That is a good idea. Tough to pick which one for the Yankees. Probably Pavano.

Staying in the NL West for worst contracts, I'd choose (in order) Barry Zito, Todd Helton, Juan Pierre, Eric Byrnes and Khalil Greene.

Those top three make Byrnes' contract look pretty solid. I only include Greene because the Padres have done a great job of staying away from crippling long-term contracts recently and 1yr/$6.5MM for Khalil is the worst they have.

The Travis Hafner extension (which I opposed, by the way) is the Indians worst contract, by far.

The Jays don't really have a bad contract other than maybe BJ Ryan (who has positive value still), but if Aaron Hill can't return from his concussion then that will be a tough contract to swallow although the monetary value is small.

"The Jays don't really have a bad contract other than maybe BJ Ryan (who has positive value still), but if Aaron Hill can't return from his concussion then that will be a tough contract to swallow although the monetary value is small."

I don't know. Vernon Wells' price tag is a bit hefty.

Definitely look for the DBacks to try to trade Chad Tracy but there may not be any takers so he may govern 1B while Connor Jackson relegates Eric Byrnes to the 4th OF slot by taking over LF.

Also, I'd look for Schlereth, the first round draft pick from this year, to take the mound in the majors at some point in 09. He was drafter high due to his ETA expectations.

Outside of how much I like Doug Davis, I think the idea of trading him so we can keep RJ for his swan-song year.

Oops, forgot to finish my sentence. Please add "is a decent idea." to the end of my last post.

Any chance the D-Backs would move Conor Jackson? I could possibly see a David DeJesus for Conor Jackson swap.

If not, as a Royals fan, I would probably swap Jose Guillen for Eric Byrnes if the D-Backs threw in a Miguel Montero or even a Jamie D'Antona. But I'm probably more down on Guillen than the average Royals fan or management.

"Any chance the D-Backs would move Conor Jackson? I could possibly see a David DeJesus for Conor Jackson swap."

Jackson is far more valuable than DeJesus. He's under team control longer and is also a better all around hitter. DeJesus may play center but metrics say he doesnt play it well and he's a good hitter but not on the level of Jackson. And Jackson is younger and more likely to improve, his upside is higher.

not as awkward as having Jones for $15+ MM and Pierre for $9MM......

especially if Colletti is able to sign Manny and keep Manny, Kemp and Ethier in the OF.

"And Jackson is younger and more likely to improve, his upside is higher."

Jackson has been very consistent the past 3 years, which suggests he may stay this way, which is not a bad thing. Basically, Jackson looks like a right handed Mark Grace.

I like the idea of losing Davis to keep Johnson. Randy doesn't throw 100mph anymore, but he still strikes people out and gets at least 10 wins a year.

I don't think they need to keep Hudson and spend all of that money. They can go a lot cheaper by keeping a guy like Eckstein or staying in house with Ojeda.

If the Dbacks could dump Byrnes salary somewhere along with not resigning Hudson and trading Davis, they could have quite a bit of cash to go after a big bat and/or a closer who doesn't blow all sorts of saves.

I don't see them trading away any of their current young starters, because Josh wants to be a contender for the next 10 years and thinks he can with most of his current lineup.

I agree they should keep CoJack at 1B, that way they could either sign LFer and trade Byrnes for Castillo or just keep Byrnes.
This is where I dont like the Haren deal - they couldve had Quentin in LF, Smith and Eveland in rotation and flexibility to trade Davis, lowering payroll, having some top prospects.

viktor06- No way the DBacks would be even close to contending this year without Haren. And, the Quentin deal was independent of the Haren deal, even though Carter was flipped to the A's in the Haren deal

I read Quentin was traded essentially because A's didnt want them, so it was because of the trade. And I know, they wouldnt be contending perhaps, but they didnt make the postseason anyway and sacrificed the future badly

Luckily Haren wasn't a rental, they still have him, cheaply, for a while.

I just think they gave up on Quentin way too early. He was highly touted for years, struggled over like 200 at bats after coming back from injury and then Arizona was ready to deal him.

Why has everyone gone south on Eric Byrnes so fast? In 2007 he had a great season and this year he had been hurt since spring training. I don't think that trading him for another bad contract is a good idea. Although I don't see his numbers matching those of 2007 again, but I do think he is a solid outfielder.

What about this:

Move Reynolds to second and
Upton to 3rd (He was a shortstop up until last year) then have Byrnes play right.
this lets Conor Jackson stay in left, where he has expressed he is more comfortable. Then all the D-Backs need is someone at first, maybe re-sign Dunn or give Josh Whitesell a shot at being a starter

"Move Reynolds to second and
Upton to 3rd (He was a shortstop up until last year) then have Byrnes play right."

Most scouts don't believe that Reynolds is capable of playing good enough defense to be an everyday 2B.

And I think moving Upton from right field now would be a mistake, he's so young and still needs to develop as a hitter. In right field he can be an elite defender, where as moving him to third, best case scenario he becomes solid. And then there's the risk of screwing up his development by making him change positions again. I just think everyone is better served if the D-Backs keep Upton where he is..

This guy Viktor has posted about 4 times how Arizona screwed up by trading Quentin for Haren. Apparently the key piece of information (that Quentin wasn't traded in the Haren deal) doesn't make any difference to him. I mean, lets not let the facts get in the way of the story here. Quentin was a bad trade, no doubt, but Haren was an awesome pickup, he was a CY young contender and the best pitcher on the D'Backs this year. Yes, he was slightly better then Webb, and that was with brutal stretch in late august that completely destroyed his ERA. Not that 3.30 is so bad. The two deals are not related.

It is like saying, I knew the Mets shouldn't have traded for Johan Santana, now Milledge is gone. It just doesn't make any sense. And I am okay with the Milledge trade, I was just using it as an example.

How about this. Trade Chris Young now, before while he still has some value as a good glove in CF with speed and pop. The Yankees, Whitesox, A's, Mariners, Reds, Cubs, Astros are all teams that may have some interest. Try to get some young ML ready players, one ML ready starter, and one ML ready infielder. Maybe Chris Young for Homer Bailey and Jeff Keppinger. Move Upton to CF, bring back Randy. Trade Doug Davis for some bullpen arm somewhere. Trade Eric Byrnes, Brandon Lyon (or a different BP arm, doesnt matter much. Saw he was the moxt expensive) to the Mets for Luis Castillo, Aaron Heilman, and Nick Evans. Move Jackson to LF, platoon Evans and Tracy at 1B. With the money you save from getting rid of the Davis and Byrnes contracts, you could go after a RF like Bobby Abreu. You could keep Castillo on the bench or just dump him somewhere (I am assuming the Mets pickup atleast half the contract, even while taking back Byrnes whole deal).

SS Drew
2B Keppinger
RF Abreu
LF Jackson
1B Tracy/Evans
CF Upton
3B Reynolds (until he lowers the K's and improves his pitch recognition)
C Snyder/Montero

SP Webb
SP Haren
SP RJ
SP Scherzer
SP Heilman/ Bailey

Not a bad idea minus the fact that Brandon Lyon is a FA after this year who they'll definitely let walk.

The Dbacks management have already committed not to give players incentive deals. So it will not work to sign Carl Pavano or resign Randy to a one year incentive deal.

Matt Torra the Diamondbacks first round supplemental pick in 2005, could make it on the scene with the big club after a very succesful year in Triple-A Tucson.

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