Gammons' Latest: Penny, Jenks, Salty

The last thing the Mets need to do is go and trade for a closer. The free agent market for closers is strong right now. They need to continue to stockpile the farm system for a couple of years before they make any more major trades. Signing K-Rod/Lowe/other Type A players they will lose their 1st Rd pick but pick one up from whoever signs Ollie.

Regarding the Salty trade rumours, I'd like to get a Salty-for-Buchholz trade done. Rangers need the pitching, BoSox needs the catcher. But I agree there would have to be more included, as straight up, it wouldn't work.

As for Penny, I would love for the Jays to sign him, as they need the pitching, but he's never played a season in the AL, and his NL ERA of 4.05 would probably balloon playing in the AL East. Might be smarter to go for Sheets if he's interested, first, before they go for mid-to-back rotation starters.

Jim Callis believes Hagadone could potentially develop a plus fast fb, plus plus slider and plus change up. He also said some Red Sox officials thought Hagadone could have made the major league team in 08 if he didn't get injured.

Salty aint worth Buch straight up in my opinion, nor is he worth two of our better pitchers.

looks like some baseball experts agree that jenks isn't all that some of you had him cracked up to be.

and i don't want to hear any "more effective" crap. i agree with the point in the article that it's strange that the sox are making him available. if jenks is doing exactly as asked so well and being more "effective" as opposed to getting strikeouts, then why would they view him as expendable when his other numbers are good and he's not expensive?

As some people added as I was typing, I would probably let Buch go for Salty AND a mid-level prospect that covers an eventual potential need, though I'm neither knowledgeable enough in the Rangers' farm system nor omniscient enough to tell you what is most likely to be a pressing need for the Sox in a few seasons (To me, it seems like almost everything has something in the wings in the next four seasons).

Buchholz straight up for Teagarden is acceptable, but not straight up for Saltalamacchia.

Salty is still pretty young, and so he still has time to learn the defensive part of the catcher's game. Assuming the BoSox can re-sign Varitek to a realistic amount of dollars, Salty can learn the game from him. Varitek is known more for his defense than his offense, so he'd be a pretty good mentor to Salty. Not to mention he's already said that it would be a dream come true to play with Varitek for the Red Sox.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/11/odds-and-ends-3.html

"if jenks is doing exactly as asked so well and being more "effective" as opposed to getting strikeouts, then why would they view him as expendable when his other numbers are good and he's not expensive?"

As for Jenks, I would think KW has let Jenks become expendable because of the market for closers this off-season. This would be a great time for him to cash in on a good closer to either bring in more prospects to the ChiSox system, or fill in some holes. I don't believe it necessarily means that Jenks has any problems.

"I have trouble understand why the BoSox are so intent are holding on to some of their overrated prospects. Good catchers do not grow on trees."

Neither do potential number one's, which prospects are overrated?

You seem to be so smart

call me crazy, i still think buchholz for salty is still a very fair and even trade. they are both high ranking prospects in there teams respected system and are close in age. i think this trade will happen one way or another, its way to early for theo to just say negotiations are over, thats so unlike theo

In some ways, I think Teagarden would eventually become a player like Varitek. He's got good defensive tools, but his bat, other than what he showed the past season in the majors, is nothing great. His AAA BA was .225. His AA BA was .248.

But hey, if the Sox want to trade Buchholz for Teagarden, go ahead. I just think defense can always be learned through tutelage and experience, but hitting is something a lot of players have trouble learning. Hence, why there are a lot of Bakos and Ross' and Bucks.

btw, i dont see whats to sexy about teagarden and why he is better then salty, teagarden had a sub par year at every level he played at, ironically not at the ml level though, i dont see anything from him right now except for a flash in the pan to be honest

"i think this trade will happen one way or another, its way to early for theo to just say negotiations are over, thats so unlike theo"

Unless Varitek signs elsewhere, the Sox are not giving up Buch for Salty. Varitek's high likelihood of sticking with the Sox without them having to part with prospects gives them a little bit of leverage. If he's going to give up Buchholz, Epstein'll want a solid defensive catcher to replace Varitek rather than take on a project on a guy who's not projected to stay behind the dish long term like Salty.

If it comes down to it, the Sox would be better off sticking with Varitek for two years than making a desperate overbid on Salty. If Luis Exposito, the Sox's best catching prospect, doesn't pan out, Joe Mauer hits free agency in two years.

I don't understand this obsession with a defensive minded catcher.

Varitek was NOT a defensive minded catcher when he was younger, he had to learn it. You want a guy who is going to stick behind the plate, has a decent arm and can swing a bat. Defensive skills can be trained, sharpened and improved over time.

"The thing that makes me nervous about Buchholz is that his personal life seems to be mirroring Craig Hansen's to a startling degree. Both were highly valued prospects who got themselves into a lot of trouble overpartying. The results for Hansen are already pretty clear, I'm just hoping Buchholz doesn't fall apart in the same way. There's a difference in claiming you've realized the error of your ways and actually doing something about it."

I'm basing it off this report...

Clay Buchholz concluded his time in the Arizona Fall League earlier this month, and his performance left Double A Portland pitching coach Mike Cather glowing about his maturation and future.

"It was the hardest I've ever seen him work," Cather said. "It was the most disciplined I've ever seen Clay. It was the most I've ever seen Clay grow up."

Buchholz's numbers in Arizona regressed after a dominating start. He allowed no runs and only one hit in his first two starts, a span of eight innings. He then surrendered nine earned runs in 13 innings over three starts, giving up 17 hits and seven walks. Boston Globe.

"Welcome to Good Burger, where a player's value is based on what he has done Kenan."

Prospects are also rated on what they might be able to do.

I hope you understand this simple point.

If by midlevel you mean Holland or Feliz :)

So Clay has had a couple of months of maturation and everyone's to assume that there are "zero indications [he can] regain his form".

Hmmm ... his last three starts in the AFL were hardly dazzling. His month of August (yes - just a few months ago) he posted a less than spectacular 10.95 ERA over 12 innings. August proved to be his worst month. Not sure that qualifies as improvement.

I still think Clay will be a very good pitcher. However, to just tear down Salty and sing the praises of Clay is very biased.

"Thank you for coming to Wal-mart"

So you're the door greeter?

neither has done anything in recent memory that was super impressive, thats why i i like the trade for them, lots of potential with lots of potential for epic fail

"I think at this point I would probably rather have Neftali Feliz than Buchholz. Feliz is regarded as having arguably the most electric arm in the minors, and his upside as an ace is undeniable. Feliz has shown continued development of all of his pitches, and he's only 20. Buchholz is already 24 and has shown flaws that seriously need be corrected, primarily his fastball control."

Dude, I was kidding. I don't consider either a "throw-in" prospect. Feliz is good, I'd debate just how good, but definitely good and definitely ace potential.

"And to be fair, you just have to be optimistic with Salty. The guy posted a .352 OBP in nearly 200 at bats last season, and if he can be even a solid defensive catcher, then he'll have value. His tools reflect the ability to be a very, very good hitter, and he already has above average plate discipline. There is pretty good reason to believe that at the very least, Salty will be a solid catcher until his defense becomes too poor to tolerate."

Of course I'm optimistic, it's the reason I'm advocating a trade for him. I just think it can get done with a package centered around Bowden or Masterson. Sox fans have a special attachment to the best pitching prospect we've had since Clemens.

You do need to dig a little deeper than a 352 obp to look at Salty though. A 74/31 K/bb ratio does not indicate a wealth of patience. His 352 OBP was undoubtedly helped by an unsustainable 388 babip. 32% K rate doesn't help his cause either.

I still like the kid, he's still got potential with the bat and I'm a firm believe that his defensive skills can be sharpened but the guy hasn't done much of anything to warrant any touting as an elite prospect.

"I still like the kid, he's still got potential with the bat and I'm a firm believe that his defensive skills can be sharpened but the guy hasn't done much of anything to warrant any touting as an elite prospect."

I'm less concerned with his defensive potential and more concerned with his alleged limited lifespan at the catcher position. A lot of scouting on him has said there's good odds he's not capable of being a permanent solution at catcher. Giving up a guy with ace upside for what could easily be a stop gap solution would be a terrible move.

I am more inclined to trade the so far shaky performance and unproven steady potential of Buch, rather than the pretty solid masterson myself for the catcher the sox need badly. Have a feeling that the longer they go with a hole at catcher, the higher the price will get from anyone with a decent catcher (Molina at SF?) to acquire from somewhere else.

The thing that was sort of worrying to me regarding Masterson was his FB speed last year that was even with 3-4 days of rest sometimes his FB would be 94-95mph, then on another occasion, even when well rested, it would only sit in the 90-91mph range and this was all during the season and not only in late August and September.

Teagarden has more desirable skills for an up the middle player. Better arm and better behind the plate, but a near abysmal bat.

I'd actually prefer Salty, I think Bowden+ could get him, but I agree I'd prefer to hold onto Buchholz and even Masterson, because that would leave a hole in the pen.

Tek is still an option, he isn't getting 4 years or 50 mil and the Sox still appear to be the team most likely to sign him. We got by last year without a dynamic player at C, so another year or two of Tek wouldn't be the end of the world.

Part of it is the potential longevity (Though as mentioned, the TJ surgery makes me nervous too), and also the fact he's got what appear to be already refined catchers' tools.

If the Sox are going to replace Varitek, they need someone to slot in at the MLB level right now, not a project. The Sox are not going to sign Varitek to be a backup to a 23 year old and he wouldn't take that anyways. That pretty much moots the idea of Varitek helping him train up his lacking defensive skills.

Factor that in with the alleged short lifespan of his catching career and he becomes a waste. You don't throw high level prospects at a project that will probably be halfway through his catching career by the time you actually get him to an adequate defensive level.

This is rendered further down the toilet by my earlier point: by the time Salty develops into anything, Exposito might be ready and the single best catcher in the MLB will be available. Salty projects well, but the odds of him ever being able to even sniff Mauer's jock strap are slim to nill (Especially when noting that Mauer is only two years older). If it comes down to trading any of our top ten prospects for Salty or rolling the dice on Varitek or Daniel Bard for two seasons, I think I'd rather stand pat.

I don't know where this talk of it being easier to train someone to defend than hit is coming from. David Ortiz couldn't hit a breaking ball for his life in Minnesota, but he learned. He sure never learned to be an adequate defender, though. Plate discipline and bat speed are things that can be refined with a good batting coach, but teaching defensive fundamentals is difficult at any position, much less one of the most complicated positions on the field.

"salty + mid level prospect for buch + mid level prospect"

Unless the mid level prospect coming from Texas is actually a good prospect with some upside, what makes this deal any different than the previous one for one?

Boston reportedly does not want to swap Buch for Salty straight up. You suggest including a prospect on both sides, what does that accomplish?

k/bb >> k/9

in my opinion

Kenan, actually I won't even shop at Wal-Mart because they are cheap, kind of like a certain logic ...

"Kenan, actually I won't even shop at Wal-Mart because they are cheap"

Good for you man!

"A.J for Buchholz + Reddick"

haha very funny

What the hell does that mean? "they appreciated his past success"

a ptbnl

why has everyone soured on buchholz??

and kenanandkel,

have you watched teagarden hit? i know his stats arent impressive but he hasnt had too many abs, when hes healthy
he will hit, thats the thing varitek wasnt a good hitter. teagarden has a real good shot of out hitting varitek in his first full season.

"a ptbnl

Posted by: 04Forever | November 17, 2008 at 06:23 PM"

them are some fighting words.

i dont think the ranger and sox will match up.

i think aj would net maybe bowden.

AJ wouldn't net much more than Kris Johnson; maybe...just maybe, an Aaron Bates type! Why would the Sox want to replace their 36 year old team captain with a (soon to be) 32 year old a-hole with a penchant for striking out. Sure, they need a catcher and AJ's bat is better than 'Tek's, but c'mon...Pierzynksi ain't exactly the long-term answer Boston's looking for. And he doesn't fit the short-term if it means sacrificing any arms with impact potential.

As for Mauer...I wouldn't count on him moving to Boston any time too soon. While I may take a certain smug satisfaction in saying so- I hate the way New York and now Boston fans think every player in baseball is just waiting to be free from their current club so they can sign with the Yanks/Sox- it doesn't make it any less likely. As another post noted, Mauer grew up in Minnesota. He was a Twins fan. He's the friggin' face of the franchise. The Twins are building a new ballpark to open in 2010. Think they want to do so without their signature player; the hometown hero?

Not happenin'.

As for the proposed Texas deal, I've already made it clear that I am, by no means biased in favor of the BoSox, but I DO think they'd be giving up the better player in any of the scenarios mentioned. Buchholtz struggled this year; that much is certain. Still...on stuff there aren't too many kids that could be called his equal. Potential doesn't always pan out, but considering the dearth of true 'aces' in the game, I'd argue his value remains extremely high. Hagadone has a ways to go- particularly in light of his injury- but maintains a similarly stratospheric upside. Both Bowden and Masterson are safe-bets to develop into mid-rotation workhorses or top-notch relievers...and given their respective arsenals, ages, and arms, such a projection may prove conservative. Say what you will about Boston's bloated budget and its place in the hierarchy of inequity that defines today's game- I'll add a few complaints of my own- but they know a thing or two about player development and these guys make for one heck of a quartet.

On the flip side, you've got the catching crew in Texas; a highly vaunted bunch, to be sure, but one that seems more impressive as a collective than individually. None have that Matt Wieters-like or even JP Arrencibia-ish sheen portending near-certain stardom. Teagarden looks like the best of the lot, but saw his offensive numbers decline precipitously in 2008, as he climbed the organizational ladder (that is, until he hit the bigs...go figure). Forgetting the fact that the Rangers aren't even offering him up, the questions regarding his bat have to be of some concern. At least the power looks real, though. Salty has been the subject of plenty of glowing scouting reports, but always seems to be a year away from doing anything substantial. He's still young, but given the aforementioned question as to his catching future, you gotta wonder whether he'd be worth the risk of a Bowden-quality arm...much less Buchholtz. For all the talk, a .253 average and 3 home runs in nearly 200 at bats- many of them taking place at home; in one of the most favorable hitting environments in baseball- just doesn't cut it. Frankly, the kid strikes me as a product of hype more than anything else. I honestly hope I'm wrong, but that's what the numbers suggest. I actually love Ramirez offensively, but there seems to be almost NO chance he'll stick at the position. Again, it just seems like the 'fact' that Texas has a number of good catching prospects (or youngsters) and the parity among them has led to a heightened perception and valuation of all three as great prospects; ones worthy of a return of Buchholtz's caliber. In my humble opinion, that doesn't match up.

Then again, desperation and positional scarcity can do funny things when it comes to value. The same offensive profile at any other spot on the field might not garner so much as a decent fifth starter in return, but behind the plate...?! I guess it comes down to how bad Theo wants his next 'tek. Considering the job Boston's done with developing from within, however, I think I'd hang on to my premiere arms and look to the draft or another, less costly (talent-wise, that is) source. Remember the last time Theo and Daniels hooked up for a trade- the Sox got a washed up Eric Gagne, while the Rangers racked up a return that included the intriguing Engel Beltre, and current left fielder David Murphy. Furthermore, as part of talks prior to that deal and a few others that never came to pass, Jon Lester's name was frequently bandied about. Back then it sounded reasonable. Now...? Well, I'm guessing the Sox are glad they held off. Just a thought.