Jake Peavy Rumors: Monday

Again, that projected Cubs' offer looks wholly inadequate to me. Marshall, Hart, and Fontenot are all decent major leaguers, but there's no upside, and Peavy is a star. Why in the world would San Diego go near that? If Vitters is in the deal, I can see it.

Marshall has looked great, and he would be missed by the Cubs organization. Still, Jose Ceda is probably a must in the deal. Vitters really is not--With Headley and Kouzmanoff the Padres actually have some solid players with upside at the MLB ready level.

Ceda, Marshall, Pie, and Cedeno is fair. Fontenot helps the Cubs more than the Pads, who would likely prefer Cedeno as a replacement for the soon-departed Greene. Pie has no value to the Cubs and is out of options, but would have a high floor given his defensive prowess needed in Petco. Marshall and Ceda are solid pitchers; Ceda is a future closer, and Marshall should be a middle of the rotation starter, with a floor of a solid fifth starter. As a small market team, the Padres can't bet on upside when dealing their best player as long as the other options will improve their team tangibly.

Jose Ceda and Sean Marshall are better pitchers than any of the guys the Braves are offering. No need to argue that, the stats are obvious. If Tommy Hanson is being offered then the deal gets done tomorrow, but I seriously doubt the Braves throw his name into the mix. Yunel Escobar is making Kevin Towers go back and forth, but if he wants good young pitching, the Cubs have a pretty good shot.

The guy who called Ceda a "throw-in"...how is 11.3 K's/9ip considered a throw-in? Ceda is definitely a top prospect.

I think that the Braves should trade esco, gorkys, and jo-jo. Although the Braves wouldn't have a strong short stop behind esco. Losing Shafer would be a bad mix for the Braves. I think Shafer should have been brough up instead of Anderson during the season. Jo-Jo is a good pitcher too. He has his moments, but he's still young and could develope into a good pitcher. But with Smoltz possibly gone until the All-Star break, Glavine still hurt, and probably losing Hampton, we need the experience in pitching to help Jair, and the other young pitching we have.

"If the Cubs will give up an attractive fourth piece to offset the deficit at SS, then making the case that the Cubs' offer is more attractive is far easier than Braves fans care to admit. (Either that or they're incapable of viewing the situation objectively.)"

Hence the Jose Ceda talks...

all you cubs fans who actually think that peavy will be come a cub are crazy. this is just a case of towers attempting to get more out of the braves by saying there are other clubs involved. i am not sure about the cubs or braves farm system. but getting a top10-12 ss is very important to that team. the padres arent going to be good but by getting a ss center feilder that shows more promise that pie.

I'm sure the deal will get dont by the end of the week...

Braves Get: Peavy

Padres Get: Escobar, Schafer, Parr and Reyes

Braves will up their offer a bit because the Dodgers or Cardinals will get more involved.

Oh my...a little background on Ceda since it's obvious most people either don't have the knowledge, don't have access to baseball-reference.com or baseball america, or just despise the Cubs:

Ceda was a former Padres farmhand trade to the Cubs for Todd Walker (Todd Walker!). Throws in the high 90's and damn near made the jump from A-Ball to the Cubs pen this past offseason. Ceda has thrown 180 minor league innings, in relief and as a starter, and has 227 K's.

It's possible he can go to starting full-time; however, with his complete domination in relief, the lock-down closer/set up role is where he might end up. If you want to compare him to current major leaguers...Francisco Rodriguez and Carlos Marmol are good places to start:

Minor League #'s

K-Rod: 11.9 K's/9ip. 3.87 BB's/9ip. 7.58 H/9ip

Marmol: 9.24 K's/9ip. 3.9 BB's/9ip. 7.45 H/9ip

Ceda: 11.3 K's/9ip. 4.8 BB's/9ip. 5.67 H/9ip(!!!)

Why don't the Phillies get in the mix with there young talent? They have some decent young pitching prospects in Happ, Kendrick, Carrasco, Slavery etc or are they not talented enough? I know the phillies aren't currently on the list however they would add the tender year as guaranteed

I say we forget about Peavy and get Dempster signed! We already have an excellent pitching staff. So, we forget about Peavy and go after that left handed bat which I believe we need more than anything. Let's go get Brian Roberts!!

By the way, those numbers posted above skew Marmol's numbers to look like he is less of a K pitcher coming up than K-Rod and Ceda; however, Marmol was mainly a starter his entire minor league career. As a reliever in the minors and major leagues, his K rate is over 12/9ip....sick.

I see multiple Cubs fans throwing stats out to back up statements but seldom see Braves fans doing the same.

Gorkys Hernandez: .751 OPS in the minors as an OF. Give me a break.

No one is questioning your system being better than the Cubs...its not the point.

The point is, if Wren won't trade the peices that MAKE your system any better...than I'm not sure what you are arguing here, unless you are just trying to get into a pissing contest.

Bravesfan, you my friend are worse than most. I don't believe ANYWHERE did I say that the Cubs have a better farm than the Braves. That would be an incorrect statement. But to claim that people like Ceda are throw-ins shows that you have absolutely no idea what you're talking about. You are all so freaking high on Heyward that you don't see Vitters was a higher rated prospect until he was injured. His ceiling didn't change, he just didn't improve as much as Heyward because he was held back.

You all argue these points about prospects in A ball. Do some research on what Wilkins has done with the Cubs system and you'll realize we have quite a few players in the low minors that will be very impressive in a short amount of time.

The point is.. I don't know the Braves system that well, but I sure as hell know the Cubs, and from listening to you all THINK you do when you clearly don't is annoying as hell. As Teetz said, Im happy to supply numbers and stats while I don't see much of that on your end. Back up your words if you're going to rip on Cubs prospects.

"Marshall is established Cubs fans, he's established that he sucks in the majors."

He posted a 3.86 ERA with a 1.27 WHIP last year.

Jair Jurrens who you are all SO high on posted a 3.68 ERA with a 1.37 WHIP.

Jurrens is younger, but Marshall is only 26, so it's not like he's pushing 30 or anything. The guy is a legit #4 starter at the very least, more like a #3 in PetCo.

Just for the record, I'm not a Braves fan and I'd take any of Escobar, Freeman, Schafer over Ceda.

Bdlugz your Marshall numbers are very misleading.. He only pitched 65 innings last year and only 7 starts. Jair pitched (starting) for an entire season... It'd be more fair to compare Marshall's first season to Jair's.. in which case his numbers are:

6 Wins
5.59 ERA
59/77 BB:K
1.52 WHIP

I think that comparison is much more telling..

I do agree with the Cubs fans that if Ceda is in the braves have to up the offer to get poeavy. bdlugz i said ceda is talented and not the type of player that would be a throw in. As to my comparision of the farm systems, i merely did it because Bdlugz said we overvalue our prospects and i was showing how good our faram system truly is. as for marshall he was effective as a bullpen guy and spot starter, not a regular starter. he sucked in the previous two seasons when he was statring regularly so i see him as a talented long reliever. Not saying the braves pitching in the offer is better but don't say marshall could be a #3 bdlugz

davearm just look at his stats as a starter and i think we can see what kind of a pitcher marshall is-once again long reliever, spot starter

I really think Yunel Escobar is the "trump" card in this deal. Marshall is a nice young pitcher. Ceda is a good prospect (though the walk rate is pretty high...); I think Gorkys right now has a higher ceiling than Pie, but admittedly that may not be true a year or two from now (scouts love his "tools", but I know they loved Pie's too).

But Escobar is a solid, proven, inexpensive SS who can hit and field his position. That's a lot harder to find than a relief-pitching prospect or even a decent back-end starter.

In 2007 (the last year he was a starting pitcher) Marshall posted a 3.92 ERA in Wrigley.

That show's he's able to start and is more than capable of being a worthwhile addition to any pitching staff. Put him in PetCo and those numbers could very well become #3 material, at least #4. Exactly what I said before.

Jim Hendry is the best trading GM in baseball, he gets these things done when he has him mind made up. If he and Wilken could actually draft as well as they trade, they'd never miss the playoffs. (This isn't to be taken at face value)

The Cubs will get Peavy, its only a matter of time.

if you want stat comparisons, please go look at Heyward's stats from A ball and Vitter's from Low A last year. The only thing that Vitters is better is at doubles where he holds a clear advantage. But 13 walks in 259 at bats compared to 49 in 449 at bats is brutal.Plus Heyward did this at a higher level

To be fair, Marshall's ERA as a starter was 4.15, so part of the reason for his ERA being close to JJ's is simply that relieving is easier than starting. I agree however that Marshall certainly doesn't suck. I cringe when some Braves fans decide to make ignorant comments like that.

Still, I don't buy the argument that Marshall is much more valuable than the pitching prospects the Braves are mentioning. While he certainly has the track record at the ML level, we can't forget that he's already arb eligible. I don't know how much sense it makes for the Padres to take an above league average they can only control for 3 years as the centerpiece in a deal for Peavy. I'm still in the camp that thinks Towers is primarily using the Cubs to up the offer from the Braves, but I agree that if the Braves continue to refuse to budge, Towers may just give up and make the deal with the Cubs.

"Just for the record, I'm not a Braves fan and I'd take any of Escobar, Freeman, Schafer over Ceda."

So would anyone else. All of those guys have the upside to be better players. Nobody is arguing that Ceda is a better centerpiece than Escobar. But in terms of the whole package, when looking at what Towers is supposedly looking for, it seems like the Cubs are offering the superior pitching, while the Braves are hesitant to offer any of their better pitchers.

I do agree though that Yunel Escobar could end up being the tipping point, if Wren can convince him that the guy has elite SS upside.

The fact that the Braves have a better system than Chicago is meaningless. Did you know the Cubs have a better MLB team? We could just offer guys from there and it would be a done deal no problem. But see, not everyone is available.

When discussing which guys are being available in Peavy talks, it becomes very clear that the Braves aren't offering distinctly better packages.

I never said the braves pitchers (Morton and reyes are better in fact id rather have marshall). Also if the Pads eliminated the Cubs that wouldnt make sense because then the braves could lower their offer even more. They know the Cubs do have some attractive trading pieces-ceda, vitters, and pie. Vitters isnt going anywhere tho but if they can get the cubs to put in ceda there could be a match

For the Braves
Yunel Escobar- playes above average defense, has proved that he can hit in the majors, with a .288 average and 10 homeruns. As a Braves fan I think he is a little overrated he doesn't have that much power but should around 15-20 homeruns, his SO to BB ratio is very good at almost 1-1.
Charlie Morton- the stuff isn't bad and at best he could be an average number 3, he came on late by making his ML debut at 25. He looked very good at AAA in 2008 and had some good outings and some bad outings in the majors last year. He walks to many and doesn't have above average strikeout numbers.
Jo-Jo Reyes- he's a lefty who walks way to many. He has way to inconsistant and the Padres probably don't want him. Was very good in 2007 between AA and AAA, winning 12 games and losing 1 with a 2.72 ERA.
I'm not going to get into the prospects in this deal simply because no one has a clue who will be involved. Only one of Morton and Reyes will be included so for the Braves the deal will rely on the Minor Leaguers that they put into the deal. The players that have Major League experience are basically a push because of age and experience.

Good post Teetz. I was just about to post that Pie has outproduced Hernandez at every stop, and at a younger age in each instance.

What Hernandez is, is a toolsy guy who hasn't translated that to production yet, and is at least a year or probably 2 away from playing MLB (if he makes it at all).

What Pie is, is a guy who would be the Pads' opening day CF.

I love how everyone is talking about Wern and Hendry, but no mention of Towers. I like Ceda, and that deal for Todd Walker still sucks. But Ceda is destined for the bullpen. Look at how Towers has always built his bullpens, on the cheap. Its not likely he will take a bullpen arm for his number 1 starter and ace. Ceda will be a throw in. Marshall is a decent starter, but no more so than Geer/Banks/Leblanc who we already have in the system. And the same can be said for Morton/Reyes, with the expection that they have more upside/less service time.

Personally I think people need to look more a SD than their own prospects, and think what they would want for Peavy if it was the other way around.

To give you an idea of Towers trading for bullpen help, look at the Ben Johnson for Heath Bell trade.

Plus, Escobar allows the Padres to dump Greene ... for whatever they can get, and still feel very good about their middle infield. Probably another prospect or 2; and that saves them $6.5 mil in 2009.

(and before anyone thrashes me, characterizing Marshall earlier as a "decent back-end starter", he may be a little better than that. I'd like to have him on the Braves' staff).

Still think Escobar is the key to the deal, though.

"What Hernandez is, is a toolsy guy who hasn't translated that to production yet, and is at least a year or probably 2 away from playing MLB (if he makes it at all).

What Pie is, is a guy who would be the Pads' opening day CF."

Wait Pie is a starting cf now? Did those 260 plate appearances culminating in a 600 ops convince you?

Or was it citing his minor league numbers?

Bdlugz I get my stats from Baseball-Reference.com, you can look at major and minor league stats, for every player. I took 2006 as Pie's best AAA season simply because it is fairly recent and he had a lot of at-bats there. I realize that Hernandez is going to be a piece of the Braves package and while he does have a high upside he hasn't played above A+, and I don't think that he has had enough at-bats total to rate how he is going to be.

"The players that have Major League experience are basically a push because of age and experience."

No they're not, Escobar is clearly the best positional, major league ready player offered in either package. It isn't even close.

The Cubs are hoping to get by on quantity, like they did with Brian Roberts because the only decent prospect they have is off limits.

Pie certainly didn't dominate the minors, but whoever said he had to be a great hitter to be valuable? If he can just be a solid hitter, a .300/.350/.450 kind of guy, with his defense and speed in center, the guy would be a very good player. I'm not saying he's a better player than Hernandez, I would probably rather have Gorkys, but the difference is really close.

And it is hard to say that Escobar is being overvalued when there really are no other similar options on the market with maybe the exception of Hardy. Who is has an available, young, cheap, good hitting shortstop? Nobody. Teams hardly ever trade away those players, and that's why Escobar may be able to make the difference in these talks.

jtd, I use the same site. You realize 2006 was his first AAA stint and also his worst? You claim it was more recent and more at bats. you'd be better off averaging his 2007/08 numbers to get what he has done recently in his 2nd and 3rd stints.

Actually, I'm a Cubs fan who would rather look at options outside of Peavy, so... no.

What makes me think Pie will hit with some consistant at bats in the majors?? his career line of .299/.355/.470 in the minors. Do I need to type this every time? You think you'd learn.

You are really going to use 275 some plate appearances to determine what a player will do for his career?

The reason I put them as a push is because the Cubs are offering one extra player and Marshall is better than Morton, Escobar is clearly better than Cedeno which evens the gap. Throw in Pie who still is young and the potential is still there and it is a push. Marshall and Pie are out of options and are arb. eligable, Cedeno has chewed through his years before arbitration. The Cubs have one more player involved with Marshall and Escobar being the best of each teams offers. Cedeno and Pie are combined better than Morton.

"What makes me think Pie will hit with some consistant at bats in the majors?? his career line of .299/.355/.470 in the minors. Do I need to type this every time? You think you'd learn."

First, what does "hit with some consistent" at bats means? I won't argue he'll have SOME consistent at bats, not many though.

Do I need to spell this out for you as well? Minor league lines RARELY IF EVER directly translate to the major leagues. With the exception of that great 2007, Pie's line is unimpressive and he hasn't come close to that 2007 since. Did you know he had a 416 babip that year?

I think 300 plate appearances can be just as indicative of major league potential as any minor league line.

Sean Marshall, Kevin Hart, and Mike Fontenot? You've got to be shittin' me. Why not just throw in another piece of crap in Felix Pie?

I guess if you don't follow how Pie has been used and misused by the Cubs you wouldn't follow what I'm getting at. He's been called up to get sporadic playing time multiple times, never letting him get over the initial hump of hitting in the majors.

There was a lack of patience and with dedicated time and practice, I believe he could be a .290/.350/.450 hitter with incredible defense, good speed and a phenominal outfield arm for center.

Is he the next silver slugger? No. But I dont think his offense would hold down his value as a player, either.

tsizzle, if you aren't going to actually read any of the information outside of 1 line, you aren't going to be very useful to any conversations.

Wow the Braves may have to wait until thanksgiving? Thats craaazy.

"I believe he could be a .290/.350/.450 hitter with incredible defense"

He posted that line ONE TIME in the last 2 years and that was in the minors, he's been abysmal in his call ups. His numbers have trended downward since that 07 season.

I think there is zero indication that kind of line is remotely likely.

so who would you rather to start you team with pie or shafer?

Kenan and Kel: doesn't like Felix Pie.

Kevin Towers: does like Felix Pie. In fact Towers has tried to trade for him before now (offering Khalil Greene straight up prior to '08).

So K & K, you can spend your day trying to convince Cub fans that Kevin Towers should not like Pie, even though he obviously does, or you can spend your day making a useful contribution to this conversation by acknowledging that the only guy whose opinion matters disagrees with you.

GM's have very different systems in which they value players. Just because one guy is highly valued in one organization does not guarantee that he will be valued to the same degree in another.

To sit here and debate whether one package is better than another is assuming that you know exactly how a team's GM and scouting department values each and every player.

For example, if their was a player draft today, and any player in the MLB was available Dusty Baker would take Naefi Perez #1 overall, and Corey Patterson #2.

"So K & K, you can spend your day trying to convince Cub fans that Kevin Towers should not like Pie, even though he obviously does, or you can spend your day making a useful contribution to this conversation by acknowledging that the only guy whose opinion matters disagrees with you."

I wouldn't dare attempt to convince Cubs fans their prospects are overrated, I know a lost cause when I see one.

I also wouldn't spend my day on MLBTR regardless of what I was defending.

I must say... out of all of this, I do enjoy the posts stating that Towers likes Pie.

Regardless of him being a prospect in our system for years and knowing how to pronounce his name... reading it incorrectly is much more fun.

I think it's pretty straight forward, if the Cubs offer Vitters, Marshall, Hart, Pie - they will surpass Atlanta's offer of Escobar, Hernandez and one or two 2nd tier pitching prospects mentioned. Atlanta would likely not top that, but the Cubs have to decide if they are willing to part with Vitters to get Peavy at a hefty contract price for the next 4 years.

"Quoting Gorkys' OPS isn't a great way of analysing him. Scouts rave over his tools, like they did with Pie, and a bad OPS in high A isn't a sign of a bad player. Hanley only had an OPS of .720 in AA, after all."

Isn't this how everyone has been analyzing Vitters and Heyward, who are both in A ball as we speak? Hmm...