Jake Peavy Rumors: Wednesday

and the marry go round continues!

im dont know if i can believe anything about the peavy rumors anymore.

well Olney feels differently about wern....

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=3712344&name=olney_buster

Since when is this a Cubs site?? Last time I checked it covered every rumor of every team...

Olney makes is sound like the trade is going to happen soon.

I still think he ends up going to Atlanta, but it won't happen soon.

San Diego will likely try and see how many other teams Peavy will allow trades to, so they can expand the market. In the end though, unless Peavy is willing to go to like Texas or something, I just don't see a team that makes as much sense as Atlanta.

The Cubs simply can't get a deal done without moving either Marquis or Fukudome, and I highly doubt that either of those would happen without eating salary, which would ruin the whole point of moving them. They're not bad ballplayers, they're just both overpaid by a good deal.

THe Cubs can't seriously be in this. They would have no money or prospects left for a left handed bat, which they have claimed from day one to be top priority.

I think Towers is using the Cubs as leverage for the Braves....again. In the end, I think he is in Atlanta or San Diego.

I'd like to see the Indians go after Peavy. They need another top of the rotation guy that Carmona can complement, since its kind of thin after him (until Westbrook returns). They def. have the prospects to get a deal done and Peavy's deal is a bargain and he would basically replace Sabathia's contract from last year, so there wouldnt an a payroll increase.

okay, stupid question...
why exactly are they shopping peavy?

As a Reds fan, I keep asking myself WHY Jocketty isn't in on Jake Peavy?

Ca$htellini keeps SAYING he is wanting a WINNING team on the field and Jake Peavy IS a WINNER.

But then there are the rumors that the Reds are going after guys like Khalil Greene, Marcus Thames and wanting to resign Jerry Hairston Jr. Those are NOT winning players.

There are also the rumors that theReds are listening for offers on Bronson Arroyo and that Texas is one of the named suitors. I can only assume that Texas wants Arroyo and is willing to give up one of their overhyped and overvalued Catchers to get him.

If Jocketty makes that deal, he is flat out STUPID. If Pitching WINS Championships, then WHY trade Arroyo?

Arroyo has shown that he can eat up Innings while playing his Home Games in GASP. If Jocketty is expecting Homer Bailey to do that, then he is ignorant.

Bailey has lost his 97 MPH Fast Ball and has NO secondary Pitches to fall back on. So, all he has is a straight as an arrow Fast Ball that clocks in at between 92 and 94 MPH.

I have said all along that Bailey is NOT going to be the SAVIOUR a lot of Reds fans (and Ownership and Front Office people) have made him out and hyped him up to be. There are REASONS why Edison Volquez and Johnny Cueto stayed in the Majors and had some success while Bailey has NOT.

No, Bailey NEEDS to go to a West Coast team and play. That way, he can throw his mediocre stuff up there and just say "hit it" and not be as worried that a routine pop up in most ball parks will go flying over the fence like it does in Great American Small Park.

Just think what a Starting Rotation of Peavy, Harang, Volquez, Arroyo and Cueto could do?

All this talk of "upping the number of teams to 13" sounds like pure bluster. Initially Jake said he only wanted to pitch in the National League and there were 5 teams on his list.

Now there are 13 teams, including some AL clubs? I'm not buying.

You have to consider how many teams have young major league or near major league ready players who will be under team control for several seasons who could be in San Diego in 2009 while providing the Padres with payroll relief -- and that Peavy would want to pitch for.

The Braves and the Cubs are there. The Dodgers? Yes, but they're in the division so Towers' asking price goes up. The Giants? Same thing, meaning probably Cain is in the deal.

The Reds? Only if one of the guys currently in the rotation is in the deal PLUS Bailey IMO. The Cards? With Rasmus, maybe.

The Brewers? Probably not because several of its attractive trading pieces are arb-eligible or nearly so.

I don't see that many teams in the mix unless Peavy says he'll pitch in the AL.

bfender, I think there is a difference between "Peavy and Axelrod are expanding their list to as many as 13," and the actual quote, where Axelrod states "There are probably six or eight more teams we'd be willing to look at." We've always know there are other teams Peavy would be "willing to look at," but they certainly aren't on his preferred list and the Padres have seemingly made no progress with anyone since the Braves and Cubs seemed to move on.

ctowncowboy,

Maybe the Reds haven't gotten involved because Peavy has no interest in waiving his NTC to go to a mediocre team with a terrible home ballpark for pitchers?

Scribbletone, I think Towers would want a couple major-league ready players. Plus, who's the centerpiece in that deal? Bailey surely isn't a guy to base a trade offer around anymore, his star has fallen. Its also highly doubtful that Peavy would agree to play in that bandbox, sorry.

I still think it ends up being the Braves - just makes too much sense. However, they'll have to sweeten the offer. The last proposal is definitely sub-par.

I don't think everyone realizes that as FA pitchers continue to sign the Padres will actually GAIN leverage (at least vs the Braves). Atlanta is clearly going to be outbid for the services of Sabathia, Burnett and Lowe. The Pads will hold the last impact pitcher on the market, and his contract is going to look better and better as soon as we see the dollar amounts pouring in for Burnett/Lowe. As Olney mentioned, Oliver Perez doesn't exactly get you excited - Peavy does. IMO Atlanta will have to include someone like Flowers if they still refuse to trade Hanson. Are they really going to let this be a hold-up when they have a stud catcher locked up for years to come???

CptTopOff,

Why would the Braves up their deal, when they already have the best deal?

You SD fans seem to think it's the end of the world for the Braves if they don't land Peavy. That simply isn't the case and I as a Braves fan hope the tell KT to stick it and continue rebuilding. Heck JS should have continued to rebuild instead of cashing in much of the progress we had made for Tex who failed to get us over the hump. We are even further away from winning now than we were when we pulled the Tex deal so it makes absolutely zero sense. Like I said the other night, I'd only revisit these talks if we land Lowe and have a tentative agreement on the table for Furcal first. Losing out on Peavy and all the FA's isn't the worst case scenario for the Braves because we will simply continue to rebuild and could still possibly finish ahead of the Marlins/Nats but if we did finish last it isn't the end of the world. The worst case scenario is for us to trade much of a future again to the Padres for Peavy and then fail to sign anyone else. That means we gave up a future again and will fall far short of winning our division again. I'm getting sick and tired of the delusional Padres fans that seem to think the Braves can't finish below .500 despite their team appearing to be on their way of consistently doing the same. Rebuilding happens unless you have the payroll of the Yankees who still managed to lose 100+ games in their history. So no I don't think the Padres will gain more leverage because, again, I hope to god Wren tells KT to stick it and you have to keep him but still end up in last place in your division just like last year. I don't mean to come off like a complete prick here but after 2-3 weeks of the same tiring crap being spewed by the same people over and over again I'm really getting tired of it. GL getting the package KT wants and I hope you can manage to turn the franchise back around but stop acting like the Braves have only one option here and that is to trade for Peavy. Sometimes taken one step back allows you to take 2-3 steps forward and that applies here with the Braves needing to stay the course if we can't add 3-4 solid pieces to our roster before opening day.

Great read on the whole Peavy situation. And even a shout-out to Tim's great work!!

http://www.athleticsnation.com/2008/11/18/664860/padres-gm-kevin-towers-pen

"Why would the Braves up their deal, when they already have the best deal?"

Because the Braves need their ace (Peavy) as much as the Padres need to reduce payroll. If it drags out too long, then the Braves will not be able to replace Escobar with a comparable player. The only way to avoid this would be to sign Burnett or Lowe, or make some other trade. But of those SP thought to be available (either as FA or via trade), Peavy is in the top two.

I'm not saying the Braves should go overboard, but why not throw in another lower level prospect that may or may not turn into something anyway?

I totally disagree. Wren might want Peavy, doesn't mean the Braves need him. I will laugh when Moores or Alderson comes up from behind Towers and accepts the Braves offer.

I wasnt saying it was a need for the Braves, but if they think they are getting FA top of the rotation starter this year or next, they will want this years class, next year will have Lackey and thats about it. And Chances are he will be locked up before he gets to free agency.

If they are not able to get on the FA market they could wait and see if the Cain/Webb are going to be traded in the next year. Or maybe Beckett/Webb do not get their options picked up (highly unlikely)

BravesRed - I'd love for that to happen, or for the Braves to give up a little less. But I just don't see it happening unless we land Burnett, or some other ace-caliber SP. In that case, I definitely say Wren has the upper hand. However, as of right now, Towers knows the Braves' priority this offseason is an ace and he knows the Braves probably won't be able to buy one. I think this offsets the fact that there do not appear to be any other teams in the running for Peavy.

Just had a thought about what the Braves might be doing and I was thinking that what if they save most of that money and sign a good pitcher next year.

SanDiegoGuy,

I guess I missed it, but when did Burnett and Lowe sign elsewhere? By the way, where exactly can KT turn if the Braves do land one of those two?

nixa37,

Since 2003, when GASP first opened, here are Peavy's stats when he has Pitched there:

Games - 5
Innings - 31.1
Hits - 30
Earned Runs - 11
Home Runs - 2
Walks - 10
Strike Outs - 25
Wins - 3
Losses - 0
ERA - 3.16

This includes one bad Start in 2005 when he gave up 10 Hits and four Earned Runs in 6 1/3 Innings. Take that away and his ERA declines to 2.52 at GASP.

Now, how many MORE Wins do you think Peavy would have if he had some type of Offense to support him?

In 2008, Peavy Pitched in 14 Games (out of 27 Starts) where the Padres scored three or fewer Runs. The Padres record in those Games was 3 Wins and 11 Losses. Peavy's record in those 14 Starts was 2 and 8 with four No Decisions.

Just think how much of a boost to Peavy it would be if he went to a team where he KNEW they could score some Runs for him?

Just think how much of a boost it would be for the Reds' players if they KNEW they had a Pitcher who was going to keep them IN a Game?

Just think how GOOD it would be for the young guys like Votto and Bruce to KNOW they have a chance to WIN every fifth day as compared to last year? I mean, a rotation of Peavy, Harang, Volquez, Arroyo and Cueto is MUCH better than one of Harang, Arroyo, Volquez, Cueto and Fogg/Belisle/Bailey.

With the latter rotation, Reds players could pretty much either count on a Loss OR count on having to score seven or more Runs to win the Games where Fogg, Belisle and Bailey Started.

Getting Peavy would mean the Reds wouldn't HAVE to go out and get a big bat to play Left Field because they wouldn't HAVE to score seven or more Runs every fifth Start to think about getting a Win.

Plus, Peavy is a MUCH better risk for the Reds to take in trading their youth away for than like last year. Last year on this board all I heard was that the Reds were going to trade away the farm for guys like Erik Bedard and/or Joe Blanton.

I said NO to those guys because Bedard was not only an injury risk but a head case too. As for Blanton, Isaid he gave up too many Hits to Innings Pitched and that his Home/Road splits for his career were scary.

Peavy is different. Peavy gives up LESS Hits than Innings Pitched and even though his ERA is higher, from 2006 - 2008, his Road record was better than his Home record. This, to me, says if he had any type of Offense behind him, Game in and Game out, he would be a Cy Young candidate every year.

Nixa37 - Do you really think that the Braves are going to get into a bidding war with the Yankees and Red Sox over Burnett? Let's say for argument that the Braves do land Burnett, looks like it will be 4-5 years at at least 13 (more like 14 million a year). Peavy is cheaper in the financial sense. Yes it would cost you players, but there is a cost to everything. I am sure you would agree that Peavy is a much higher caliber pitcher than Burnett.

Daslied could you please show me any pitcher (or player) that is not "an injury concern"? Poor analogy with the herpes thing....

ctowncowboy,

You can play with those stats all you want (this isn't to hate on stats in general, but rather the small-sample size cherrypickying you're engaging in), but they are completely meaningless. Peavy has a NTC, the Reds aren't very good, and they play in an extremely hitter friendly park. He almost certainly isn't going to approve a trade there, so its meaningless what he would mean to the Reds. Oh and the point about the Reds' offense is pretty dumb considering they scored just 4.3 rpg, despite their home park, and ranked behind the Padres in team OPS+.

SanDiegoGuy,

No I don't think the Braves will get in a bidding war, per se, with the BoSox (who I think are showing interest in Burnett more to drive up the price than anything else) or Yanks, but I think they could make a significantly better offer early on (say a 5th year) and basically say you can't shop this to other teams, take it or leave it, and Burnett would have to seriously consider that.

Yeah, Peavy is definitely better than Burnett, but is he $10 million + Escobar + Hernandez + multiple others better? I honestly don't think that's really even a debate. I'd probably take Burnett and Escobar (and the ~10 million less they'll earn a year) over Peavy and Furcal.

I don't know how feasible it will be to deal with Peavy's NTC in season. You need multiple teams he would accept a trade to with a big need for starting and in the middle of a tight race. Plus, you're now asking him to move midseason, which I'm sure he'd rather no have to deal with. Its certainly possible Peavy could garner more at the deadline, but its also completely possible that you really only have 1 team bidding again. Padres fans try and act like that NTC doesn't affect Peavy's value in any way, when it clearly does.

"The Padres would LIKE to trade Peavy this offseason, but don't HAVE to." CptTopOff

From the reports I've seen, it is pretty much a mandate to Towers that he HAS to trade Peavy. I haven't seen any reports indicating they are just gauging the market for a possible trade. And with comments from Towers indicating that "train has left the station" it seems pretty certain Peavy will be traded this winter.

"Its not about forcing ATL to take Peavy. It's simple: if they want him they'll have to do better than the reported offer." CptTopOff

The first rule of negotiation - Don't bid against yourself when you don't have to. I will give you that the Braves current offer is probably less than full value for Peavy. However, when you include factors such as the Padres need to trade him and, because of his NTC, his potential market is limited, this will reduce any potential return. Towers is counting on the Braves not signing one of the other aces. But he needs to be careful or he will be left with a Santana-like return.

I stand by my prediction that talks between the Braves and Padres will be renewed, the Braves will sweetened the deal slightly, and the trade will get done.

This talk about the Reds just needs to stop. Peavy wants out of San Diego because they suck. He wants to go to a team that can win a World Series. The Reds are not that team. Not now and not in the near future. That doesn't even take into account Great American Ball Park. Please stop this nonsense.

Where do people get the idea that they will get more for Peavy at a later date? His value decreases over time. This what happens when you give players a no-trade clause...

...and Santana is not a good comparison. He was in the last year of his contract, so the Twins were forced with the choice of taking the Mets' package or keeping him and getting 2 draft picks in 09'.