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« Odds and Ends: El Duque, Tazawa, Ausmus | Main | A.J. Burnett Opts Out »
A whisper from David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution:
Here’s a rumor you might be hearing soon. I repeat, might be hearing. Kelly Johnson for Ryan Ludwick. Hey, you ask about whispers, I give you whispers. I’ll let you know if I hear it said above a whisper.
Johnson and Ludwick are both under team control for three more seasons. Johnson is 27 in February, while Ludwick is 30. Though Johnson plays a premium position, Ludwick was probably more valuable in 2008. Thoughts?
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In other news Burnett opts out of his contract...
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/8756808?MSNHPHMA
Posted by: Cardsfan387 | November 04, 2008 at 04:21 PM
msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/8756808/Burnett-opts-out-of-deal,-will-become-free-agent
Burnett opts out, probably worth a post.
Posted by: Grant77 | November 04, 2008 at 04:21 PM
lol, beat you to it Grant.
Posted by: Cardsfan387 | November 04, 2008 at 04:22 PM
Well, there's your outfield slugger, Atlanta. But:
1. Ludwick is 30. Is he a late bloomer or a fluke?
2. Is Ludwick intended for RF?? If so, where's Francouer going?
3. I love Kelly Johnson.
Posted by: daslied | November 04, 2008 at 04:25 PM
Honestly, I actually think this is a pretty logical deal from both sides.
The Braves really need a power hitter to put into the outfield, and Ludwick is exactly that. He's still under control for the same amount of time as Johnson, so the age factor is nearly as big. The Braves can easily plug Martin Prado into Johnson's spot too, so it's not necessarily filling one hole by making another.
As for the Cardinals, they could really use a good middle infielder that can be plugged in their for a while, because the likes of Cesar Izturis, Adam Kennedy and Brendan Ryan are not good players. Johnson gives them a solid all around hitter who had a .375 OBP in 2007, although his walk numbers plummeted in 2008. If he can get his walks back up, he would be great in the two spot in front of Pujols, Glaus and Ankiel. Colby Rasmus is nearly ready to start in center, so the Cardinals can play Ankiel in right and Schumaker in left.
I'm not sure if the Cardinals could get more for Ludwick though, as those power numbers are mighty enticing.
Posted by: scribbletone | November 04, 2008 at 04:25 PM
Also, Chris Carpenter just had surgery today...same one Albert Pujols had last month...
http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/sports/stories.nsf/cardinals/story/BCAB64342B022790862574F70079A4C3?OpenDocument
Posted by: Cardsfan387 | November 04, 2008 at 04:27 PM
Wow. That trade would either look really good for the Cards (Ludwick has more injury problems) or really bad for the Cards (Ludwick stays healthy and productive) in 3 years. Ludwick is definitely more valuable, but more risky.
Posted by: mymrbig | November 04, 2008 at 04:28 PM
I don't know. The Braves need an outfielder badly, but why not sign one via free agency? I really don't want to see Martin Prado or Omar Infante out there everyday.
Posted by: Fan o the Rumors | November 04, 2008 at 04:29 PM
Should have said Ludwick definitely has more upside. Johnson is solid, but no star potential. Ludwick is a star if he can repeat.
Posted by: mymrbig | November 04, 2008 at 04:30 PM
I agree with scribble.
Ludwick hit 37 HRs - seriously, how many actual "flukes" do that? Not many. He has become a very legitimate hitter. Ludwick can be the offensive stud when Chipper gets hurt, while Kelly Johnson is a spark at the top of the lineup, they have Escobar to do that. If Francouer and Ludwick are in the OF, you're pitchers are only going to be helped with their incredible arms...
I like this deal for the Braves...Cards are filling a hole via trade, open up the OF for Ankiel, Schumaker and Rasmus, and can spend their offseason money on a free agent pitcher.
Posted by: B3NG4L | November 04, 2008 at 04:30 PM
Fan -
The Braves would try and use that money for a starter. They need one...
Posted by: B3NG4L | November 04, 2008 at 04:31 PM
I don't know if I like this rumor.
Posted by: Cardsfan387 | November 04, 2008 at 04:36 PM
That is just one big question mark of a trade.
Posted by: www.homehalfway.net | November 04, 2008 at 04:37 PM
This trade makes sense for both teams, but if I was the Cardinals I would want a low tier pitching prospect added.
Posted by: 7thinningstretch | November 04, 2008 at 04:39 PM
Very interesting trade proposal.
Posted by: bjsguess | November 04, 2008 at 04:41 PM
As a Cardinal fan I am highly opposed to this trade. You just don't deal .966 of OPS on a team-friendly contract or, if you do, you have way more leverage than that. I like Johnson a lot, but I would take the chance that Ludwick is not just a fluke this year.
Posted by: mateodh | November 04, 2008 at 04:42 PM
Ludwick hit a chunk of his HRs hitting in front of Albert Pujols. just some food for thought.
Posted by: GeneralManager | November 04, 2008 at 04:52 PM
This would be an awesome trade for both sides. Contracts are about equal. If the braves pulled that they would have tons money for other stuff.
Posted by: joemorgan=#1 | November 04, 2008 at 04:52 PM
Would the Braves do this deal? Of course they would! No wonder a Braves writer brings it up.
Would the Cardinals do this? Hell no.
Atlanta could probably get a Shumaker/Kennedy(w/cash)/Thompson package for him, but a 30+ homer RF? No way.
Posted by: registereduser | November 04, 2008 at 04:53 PM
GeneralManager,
So Ludwick hits in between Chipper and McCann. Sounds like a fearsome middle of the order to me.
Posted by: ink-stained scribe | November 04, 2008 at 04:54 PM
How can the Cardinals give up that much power? There were already rumors that they wanted an impact bat....what happened to those? I doubt they have the goods to get Halladay to replace him and I'm not sold on Rasmus being ready at the start of spring training.
Posted by: TheBaseballOpinion | November 04, 2008 at 04:57 PM
GM,
Chipper isn't that much worse...
Posted by: B3NG4L | November 04, 2008 at 04:59 PM
Please tell me this is a joke. The cards give a .966 OPS OF for a leage average 2B. Are we really THAT desperate?
Tim I thought this site was for legit rumors not trash like this.
Register has a much better proposal on the table built around skip.
Posted by: IN TLR WE TRUST | November 04, 2008 at 05:00 PM
Registereduser,
Are you sniffing glue?
A Schumacher/Kennedy/Thompson package could barely net you one of our prospects let alone Kelly Johnson...
This would be close to a straight up arb player for arb player basically trading weakness (OF) for weakness (2b)...thats all thats being said at the time...
I could see something like this happening though as the Cards have coveted Kelly for 2+ years now and the Braves really need that right handed power OF bat.
Posted by: Braves22 | November 04, 2008 at 05:00 PM
no youre right Pujols is only the most feared hitter in baseball.
Posted by: GeneralManager | November 04, 2008 at 05:01 PM
Why not keep him if this is the best you can get, even at .770 OPS he's probably worth the arb rates until 2012
Posted by: wayne gomes | November 04, 2008 at 05:01 PM
"Are you sniffing glue?
A Schumacher/Kennedy/Thompson package could barely net you one of our prospects let alone Kelly Johnson..."
OMG!!! I didn't realise Dan OBrian comments on MLBTR!!! haha
Posted by: registereduser | November 04, 2008 at 05:03 PM
Why do so many people think Ludwick isn't a fluke? He has one good year and he's almost 30..Why not sell high and get a good 2b, something you really need.
Posted by: smscardinals1 | November 04, 2008 at 05:04 PM
Is this a joke, why the hell would St. Louis do this
Posted by: mattkemp27 | November 04, 2008 at 05:07 PM
general manager- Ludwick hit almost identical HR/AB hitting 2nd in front of Pujols and 4th behind Pujols. He played twice as many games hitting 4th as he did hitting 2nd.
The Cards wouldn't make this deal unless ATL sweetened the deal...
Posted by: deeco3307 | November 04, 2008 at 05:11 PM
You gotta love the ignorant fans who call Kelly Johnson a league average 2B. KJ is 26 and has finished 5th and 7th in OPS among all qualifying 2B in OPS the past two seasons. His OPS+ numbers were 117 and 108. Obviously that is above average for all hitters, let alone 2B.
Posted by: nixa37 | November 04, 2008 at 05:27 PM
You clearly did not understand that GM,
I know that Pujols is the best hitter and most feared in baseball...but do you really think Ludwick would really drop off just because someone as bad as Chipper, as you imply is hitting behind him? I don't think so.
If Ludwick were a Brave, he would probably give you .280/.365/.500, 30 HRs. Plenty of production, at least better than Kelly.
Johnson will be a .800 OPS 2B in the upcoming years, and probably for a while - how many 2B's can do that?
Posted by: B3NG4L | November 04, 2008 at 05:28 PM
Cards fans seem to hate this deal, as a Braves fan I'm nto sure I would even do this deal. Ludwick is 30 with some injury problems and one good year. Kelly is younger, and plays a premium position. If the Braves trade Kelly, Prado would have to start. Besides, The Braves can sign one of Dunn, Burrell or Ibanez or trade for Magglio. No need to trade your second basemen.
Posted by: Showtime35 | November 04, 2008 at 05:29 PM
I think that Ludwick will be the better hitter over the next few years, but from the Braves standpoint, they can't make this deal.
Posted by: Showtime35 | November 04, 2008 at 05:32 PM
in a vacuum, who will be more valuable over the next three years. my money's on ludwick, though I do think johnson is a very nice player and that it is a lot closer than most would expect.
it would seem odd to me however, that at this point and time, that this is an accurate representation of ludwick's trade value
Posted by: Hammondsbird | November 04, 2008 at 05:38 PM
Showtime35,
There's no guarantee the Braves can get any of the FAs without overpaying. And much as I like Maggs, the Tigers may still be smarting from the deal they made with Atlanta last year for Renteria and won't trade with Wren a second time so soon.
Prado/Lillibridge/Infante will provide adequate production at 2B. Ludwick will fill the LF hole. If the Braves can make this deal, they should.
Posted by: ink-stained scribe | November 04, 2008 at 05:45 PM
you know what your getting with Johnson, selling high on Ludwick. The Cards have a flux of OF's, id make that trade if I was the Cards.
Posted by: clarknaddison | November 04, 2008 at 05:46 PM
No. But thanks for playing our game.
Posted by: rememberthecoop | November 04, 2008 at 05:47 PM
Prado is a better fielder and might be slightly above replacement level, I could live with him starting.
Chipper may not be Albert Pujols but he did win the batting title this year, and almost did last year.
Posted by: Land-Man | November 04, 2008 at 05:50 PM
I love Kelly Johnson.
Posted by: nrmax88 | November 04, 2008 at 05:52 PM
I like the deal for both sides, but probably wouldn't do it from Atlanta's side. KJ plays the more premium position, and as somebody said, I agree he will be an 800 OPS 2B for the next 5 years atleast. I like Ludwick, but I too think he is more of a.275/.350/.500ish guy, which is valuable, but I will take a younger, .800 OPS 2B over a .850-.875ish LF. The latter are much easier to find. I could see this deal happening though.
Posted by: nrmax88 | November 04, 2008 at 05:55 PM
well one of the things i remember from this season is that when Albert was out for a short time they moved Ludwick into his spot in the lineup and asked him to carry the load. needless to say without Albert the offense suffered. im not knocking Ludwick its more of a compliment to Albert, but if he were to be traded to ATL and the aging Chipper were to go down with an injury dont expect great things.
Posted by: GeneralManager | November 04, 2008 at 05:56 PM
I could see the Braves going after Mags to play LF. They definitely would not have to move one of their top 5 guys, and could get a deal done with secondary prospects (for the Braves organization, but still very talented guys), because Detroit needs to move a big contract. Could they get Mags for Flowers plus Jojo Reyes plus Lillibridge or something? Could fill a couple of immediate needs for Detroit, and free up some money at the same time.
Posted by: nrmax88 | November 04, 2008 at 05:59 PM
I am very split on this rumor. I love the thought and would be excited if the Braves somehow got Ludwick in this trade and also spent money on Ibanez, that way if Frenchy does have another bad year, we are still ok, plus it would give us the option to let Schafer mature a bit more in AAA for one more year. But my problem is the perception. Given Ludwick has had injury issues, I thikn the Card's might be trying to sell high.
As far as a comparison I think the trade is equal. Perhaps, with a slight edge to Ludwick. But one must remember production of each player in perspective. Kelly's offense was in the top third of all 2nd basemen if not higher even though he is only serviceable defensively. But Ludwick is only a bit above middle of the pack in production from an outfield perspective. In fact he had an almost identical year to the aforementioned Ibanez with a bit more power, and Ibanez only made 5.5 mil last year I believe. Considering both are arb eligible and under team control for 3 years each, the fact that Kelly is three years younger is a huge component of this deal. Kelly has a lot more time to get better then Ludwick who in 3 years will already be considered a senior member in the league.
33 is not old, but it is in baseball. I like this trade as a fan because I am extremely confident in the ability of Prado or Infante to be more than an adequate everyday replacement for Kelly but if I were a GM this would look awful fishy to me. Plus, for the Braves fans out there....keep in mind this is not in a vacuum...trading KJ to the Cards will seriously diminish the possibility of completeing a trade for Peavy (assuming on happens) that does not include Yunel, which would be an absolute deal breaker for me.
BTID
Posted by: bravestillidie | November 04, 2008 at 06:02 PM
It seems to me that Kelly Johnson is a safe bet in comparison to Ludwick. As a braves fan I would be afraid that Ludwick would not be able to repeat his '08 season.
But one issue that no one is bringing up is the idea of a looming deal for Jake Peavy. There are several rumors saying that Yunel Escobar or Kelly Johnson (probably Escobar) could be a centerpiece in a Peavy deal. The Braves cannot afford to trade both of these players, so any chance of this rumor to go through hinges on what happens with the Peavy deal. If KJ and Escobar are held out of a Peavy deal, then maybe the Braves come back to this idea. Either way, I think the Braves would need to add a low to mid level prospect. Probably a pitcher like James Parr.
Posted by: FiNch | November 04, 2008 at 06:08 PM
The only reason Chipper won that title over Pujols was he sat out the rest of the season.
Posted by: Zoop | November 04, 2008 at 06:08 PM
Also, this proposal in laughable... Ship Ludwick and 3 top pitching prospects to SD for Peavy if we're doing this.
Posted by: Zoop | November 04, 2008 at 06:14 PM
Kelly Johnson had the 7th ranked OPS amongst second basemen and Ludwick had the 6th highest in the entire ML. Also Johnson regressed this year. I would do this deal in a second if I were Atlanta.
Posted by: cwilli | November 04, 2008 at 06:15 PM
Zoop,
Why exactly would the Padres be interested in a 30 year old arbitration eligible player when they are looking to rebuild? Also, who are these 3 top pitching prospects the Cards have?
Posted by: nixa37 | November 04, 2008 at 06:22 PM
Why is it that every time anyone talks about Ludwick..they seem to think his year was a fluke…An unproven commodity…and injury-prone? I just wish someone would tell me what it takes to break out of stereotypes.
This past season WAS his breakout year–that much I will give you. But he has shown the ability to put up these types of numbers the past three years. In 2006 in Toledo, where he got stuck in a logjam behind outfielders that caught fire in Detroit, he played a full season batting .266 with 28 HR and 80 RBI in 508 AB. More of the same in 2007, as he hit .286 with 22 HR and 88 RBI in 409 AB (Most of that in STL.). Then the so-called BREAKOUT season in 2008, batting .299 with 37 HR and 113 RBI in 538 AB.
And he wasn’t just valuable with the bat.
His glove was just as valuable for the team, and although he doesn’t have Ankiel’s arm strength, he did have 12 assists and only two errors this past season while logging time at all three OF positions.
And as far as protection for Albert goes…If Ludwick isn’t in the lineup behind him, his average is probably 30-35 points lower because of even MORE limited opportunities.
How about everyone just finally giving up and quit over-analyzing the guy..and just admit that the organization did a great job of scouting…picked up a guy who busted his ass and was FINALLY healthy after some bad luck during his career…and give him the credit he deserves for hard work and perserverence?
He is healthy, driven and should be considered a key component of any type of rebuilding the Cards do over the next few years.
Is he going to an All-Star every year? Probably not. A lot of that had not only to do with his numbers, but also the fact that he had a great storyline.
But it IS time to give the guy his due and stop talking about what he can’t do. Because honestly, the time has come for him to get the respect he has worked his entire career for.
It just seems to me at some point Cardinal fans ought to just be happy they have a guy that is a class act and could put up these types of numbers for the Redbirds for the next 5-6 years.
If you are a Cardinals fan...you shouldn't want any part of this deal. If you root for the Braves, you should be BEGGING for this deal. Luddy would hit 40+ HR's a year in Atlanta.
Posted by: CircleCitySports | November 04, 2008 at 06:26 PM
Great post CircleCitySports.
Posted by: Cardsfan387 | November 04, 2008 at 06:31 PM
if im the Cards id move Ankiel before Ludwick. Ankiels in the last year of his deal and is a Boras clinet. Boras right now is saying Jason Varitek deserves Jorge Posada money. who knows what hell say Ankiel should get.
Posted by: GeneralManager | November 04, 2008 at 06:36 PM
"The only reason Chipper won that title over Pujols was he sat out the rest of the season."
And you know that how? It wouldn't have even been close if Chipper hadn't played through injuries most of the second half.
Posted by: Land-Man | November 04, 2008 at 06:45 PM
Land-Man, you DO know Pujols was injured ALL year, right? As in every game of it? Dude could hit .380 if healthy.
Posted by: Zoop | November 04, 2008 at 07:19 PM
I am a Cards fan and I could see this deal happening for a few reasons.
First - I think Ryan Ludwick = Fernando Tatis. One good year and some pop, but sell now while he's worth something.
Second - The management is very sold on Ankiel, Schumaker, Rasmus in the outfield. Someone is on the way out and Ludwick demands more right now.
On that note, I hope they get a bit more for him, a high level prospect or something of the like.
Posted by: gr81poison | November 04, 2008 at 08:09 PM
Chipper Jones took a 400 batting average into the beginning of his season-long injury problems. Chipper had something like 69 hits in his first 150 at-bats.
Posted by: AtlantaBred | November 04, 2008 at 08:16 PM
i know everybody thinks pujols is god(me too), but chippers just a way better hitter(with a little less power), if hes ever healthy for at least 140 games he will own pujols sorry but its the truth
Posted by: tntnhhs | November 04, 2008 at 08:33 PM
Good comparison, gr81poison.
Ludwick has potential. A lot of it. but the Braves have too many injury prone players. I would much rather have a Ibanez, Swisher, Ordonez, or Abreu.
cwilli, Johnson showed a lot more gap power this year(which is where his power is) and cut back on k's in more ABs. It's kind of absurb to say he regressed because his eye was slightly worse. I expect next year to be his breakout year where ever his ends up.
Posted by: insomniac | November 04, 2008 at 09:21 PM
Go get him ATL! We have Prado and could use a player like Ludwick. Young, energetic and can hit for power and average.
Posted by: ChiefTomahawk | November 04, 2008 at 09:24 PM
No way the Cardinals should do this deal. There are some good free agents out there that could play second base. Johnson is not good enough to get straightup for Ludwick. Now, if the Braves offer more for Ludwick, then maybe. Go McCain!!!!
Posted by: JP | November 04, 2008 at 09:29 PM
ChiefTomahawk......Ludwick isn't young, he's 30 years old.
Posted by: Cardsfan387 | November 04, 2008 at 09:38 PM
Pujols hasn't been healthy, either. The difference is Pujols plays through the pain, where unfortunately, Chipper's injuries have been too much for him to bear. The difference is healthy Pujols in his prime vs a healthy, aging Chipper; sorry, but I'll take the NL MVP any day of the week. Not to say Chipper is anything but a tremendous Hall of Famer, but Pujols is, simply put, the greatest player of this era.
Posted by: Zoop | November 04, 2008 at 09:42 PM
Well, KJ is slightly below average defensively at second base, and he isn't good enough offensively to be worth anything close to ludwick, who is a truly elite hitter with average defense in RF.
Of course, KJ is still young enough to have a breakout year, but his 2007/2008 were supported by a flukey BABIP; it's more likely that 2008 was about his true talent level. He's actually got about a 25% chance of regressing even from his 2008 numbers.
Upgrading the braves from Francoeur to Ludwick would be 7-8 wins in RF- 58 runs on offense, and about 2 wins on defense since Francoeur was the worst RF defender in the game last year- while upgrading the cardinals from Kennedy to KJ would be only about half a win when offense and defense are considered. Kennedy is an elite and very underrated defender.
A fair value-for-value trade for the cardinals would probably be Skip Schumaker and a low prospect or two for KJ. Skip is a 3-4 win upgrade over francoeur, and while he doesn't have the offensive upside that a player like Joe Mather has, he is a good to great defender in LF/RF and is capable in CF. The braves could pick up an easy 3-4 wins this way.
Posted by: SleepyCA | November 04, 2008 at 09:46 PM
"The difference is Pujols plays through the pain, where unfortunately, Chipper's injuries have been too much for him to bear."
What a bunch of crap. Pujols is clearly the best offensive force in baseball, my original post was just pointing out that Chipper is still an elite hitter. Like you know anything about the relative pain levels or tolerance of Chip vs. Pujols. It just bugs me that people suggest he's 'sitting it out' to win a batting title.
Posted by: Land-Man | November 04, 2008 at 10:34 PM
The Braves are not going to make a trade for Skip Schumaker. While defense is important, the Braves are looking for a power hitter to play left field and hit between Chipper and McCann. If the Braves trade Kelly Johnson to the Cardinals it will more than likely have to be for Ludwick with Ankiel being the second and only other option.
Posted by: bravesfan23 | November 04, 2008 at 11:17 PM
David O'brian said on the AJC site that the rumor of Johnson of Ludwick was shot down by the Cards. The Braves are interested in Ludwick but dont plan on giving up Johnson. This was what he said..
"You in the KJ camp apparently needn’t worry about him going to St. Louis for Ludwick. The Kelly part of that equation was shot down by someone on the St. Louis side. However, the Braves are interested in Ludwick. Ankiel, I’m not as sure about, but I think they’ve discuss him with the Cards, too."
So the Braves are looking at Ludwick, but it probably wont he Johnson traded.
Posted by: CChambers8 | November 05, 2008 at 03:24 AM
Ludwick can play CF too. He is probably better than Ankiel defensively. Schumaker is also a very solid CF.
The Cardinals basically have 4 centerfielders that are above average major leaguers. They should market them as such.
Posted by: jerbyrd25 | November 05, 2008 at 07:44 AM
anyone know what kind of salary we would assume with Ludwick. I like the idea of the trade especially if we have the additional funds to go after someone like Ibanez. Then we have three outfielders with the potential of 20 plus homers, and if Francour has another bad year then we have Schaffer ready to step in and take the place of Francour
Posted by: chipper4prez | November 05, 2008 at 10:00 AM