Matt Holliday Rumors: Wednesday

As the only Rockies fan that actually posts here, I can tell you this all blows.

If the Yanks can get Holliday and a couple pitchers, they can lock up a Wild Card spot next year!

value is in the eye of the beholder.
the outfield cluster will be over after next year. theyd have an opening then, so giving up prospects to get Holliday now when hell be a free agent isnt the smartest thing to do. not the worst but not the best either.

I may be reaching here, but i know the cardinals were actively pursuing holliday before the Trade Deadline. What about a package from the cardinals containing Bryan Anderson (one of the cards top catching prospects, has hit .300+ every stop in the minors), one of our pitching prospects, and Ankiel, do you think that would get the job done? I've been hearing the rockies need a catcher and the only reason anderson wont be with our major league club next year is because we resigned LaRue

"Kennedy & Cano, to Rockies

Holliday, to Yankees"

Cano has zero value to the Rockies.

As far as the one year rental, I'd like to see a trade to any team involve a negotiation period like Johan had otherwise the Rockies are asking too much in return for him.

Angels send Weaver, Adenhart, Matthews (eat 6mm of his contract per year) and two mid level prospects for Holliday and Atkins (with a negotiating period for Holliday)

Kennedy will get destroyed in Coors.

"mkorpal, as a fan of neither team, I really hope you're joking. Its one thing to not like the deal and quite another to say Baker and Barmes are comparable to Cano. Yeah, Cano is coming off a down year, but he's still two years younger than Baker, four years younger than Barmes, and he has a career OPS+ of 109 (along with 2 seasons of 120+) compared to career highs of 99 for both Barmes and Baker."

Alright, lets break it down.

Barmes 393Ab .290/.322/.468 13SB/4CS

Baker 299Ab .268/.322/.468 4Sb/0CS

Cano 597AB .271/.305/.410 2SB/4CS

Baker and Barmes will cost under a million each, Cano will cost 6 million. Cano has somewhat better career stats and is a little younger, but he is also stuck at 2B, where Barmes and baker can pretty much play any postilion except catcher and pitcher.

So, why is Holliday worth a 2nd basemen coming of a bad year with a high salary and a pitching prospect who was absolutely terrible.

mkorpal - See my post above and below yours for your answer.

I can't believe I'm actually defending a trade a Yankees fan proposed...

Somewhat better career stats? Somewhat better?

Cano (25 y.o.) - 2218 AB .303/.335/.468

Baker (27) - 538 AB .262/.319/.468

Barmes (29) - 1354 AB .263/.301/.405

Cano did that while playing in the best division in baseball, while the Baker and Barmes put up those numbers playing 1/2 their games at Coors. Also, how is the fact that Cano is stuck at 2B a big deal? Outside of SS and C, 2B is the toughest position to find offensive production. Why in the world would you want to move him to another position? And while I'm sure Baker and Barmes could play many positions other than 2B, that's rather meaningless as neither has the offensive capabilities to be an adequate starter anywhere other than the MI. I guess there versatility makes them more valuable as utility guys, but that's not really relevant when we're only talking about who would be better starting at 2B for the Rockies.

Look, I'm not saying that the Rockies should make this trade or anything. I'm just saying as a fan of neither team it looks intriguing enough to start conversations. Oh, and you guys are ridiculous if you actually think Baker and Barmes are comparable to Cano in terms of value.

Yeah, they've decreased since he posted a .342/.365/.525...that's nearly a 900 OPS from your 2B. That's better than every Rockies player outside of Holliday and Ianetta (barely) and he doesn't get to play half his games in Coors. What are you trying to suggest anyway? That Cano's decline started before he turned 26?

"Yeah, they've decreased since he posted a .342/.365/.525...that's nearly a 900 OPS from your 2B. That's better than every Rockies player outside of Holliday and Ianetta (barely) and he doesn't get to play half his games in Coors. What are you trying to suggest anyway? That Cano's decline started before he turned 26?"

That's not what I'm trying to say. I'm saying he was a "flash in the pan" type player, and will never be able to duplicate it.

06 .342/.365/.525
07 .306/.353/.488
08 .271/.305/.410

that sure looks like a decline

PS. 08's OPS would put him between Tulo and Torrealba on the Rockies.

Oh, so he was a flash in the pan type player who posted consecutive 120+ OPS+? Do you actually believe that's more likely than the possibility that last season was an aberration or are you just trying to save face at this point? What if I threw in the fact that after posting a .151/.211/.236 in April, Cano reverted to numbers much more in line with what he has done throughout the rest of his career?

Seriously man, I'm not even a Yankee fan, or a Cano fan for that matter. Still, I think that just about any rational person would agree that Cano is easily more valuable than Baker or Barmes. Whatever, this is just a stupid argument anyway. Go ahead thinking whatever you want...

Cano's contract going forward

09:$6M, 10:$9M, 11:$10M, 12:$14M club option ($2M buyout), 13:$15M club option ($2M buyout)

I completely see the value in playing second basemen that much money to play crappy defense, swing at everything and put up a .715 OPS, where do I sign. I think a lot of teams would not take Cano for nothing with that contract let alone value him as the centerpiece in a trade for a guy like Holliday.

I never said Cano alone was worth Holliday, just that he and Ian Kennedy (if the Rockies rumored appreciation exists) would be an interesting starting point for a deal. I never even said that was enough to get it done, just that it would probably open up a dialog between the teams.

cwilli, yeah teams that are already set with good 2B and/or teams with budget constraints probably wouldn't take on Cano. Still, for some reason, I'm pretty sure Cano could get a better deal than 3 years at 25 million (plus options or buyouts) on the open market right now. Also, if this were two years ago and we were talking about Peavy's value, for some reason I don't think you would arguing his 99 ERA+ the previous season had completely ruined his value.

Nixa37 - But Hughes is the kind of player the Rockies are going to demand for Holliday.

Which is why I think there is a 50/50 change he starts 2009 in a Rockies uniform.

cwilli,

Lets see, there was his insanely bad April, which he followed up with numbers in line with his career norms the rest of the season. There was the 45 point decrease in his BABIP despite an marked increase in his line drive percentage. While his BB rate dropped from last season, it was still better than his previous two seasons. His K rate last season was a career best.

The only real argument I can see for actual regression by Cano is that his power numbers were down a significant, though not huge, amount from last season. Honestly, I see little reason to think he won't rebound in that category next year.

I love how you mention both the pitcher friendly parks and the talent of NL West pitchers in the same sentence, as if the former has no effect on the latter. San Diego had a team ERA+ of 87, the Giants' was 98, the Dbacks' was 114, and the Dodgers' was 120. Compare that to the AL East, where the Rays, Sox, Jays, and O's posted ERA+'s of 114, 114, 124, and 86 respectively. ERA+, and OPS+ for that matter, are ballpark neutral stats, so they already take into account the fact that the NL West has more pitcher friendly parks than the AL East.

Replace Davis with Niemann. Davis and Hellickson are pretty much untouchable.

Why would the Yankees want to mortgage the future to further their logjam in the OF?
I would pursue Holliday only if there was a negotiating window. I would also try to include Nady in the deal back to the Rox and try to reward him with a 3-year contract for being traded for something like the 5th time in 6 years. He and Holliday are similar pieces of the puzzle.

Wow this is really wierd. I just realized that I had a dream about a Holliday for Crawford trade last night.

No way the Rays should trade for Holliday. Fundamentally a bad idea.

A team that relies that heavily on the farm system (smaller market teams like the Rays, A's, Twins, etc.) doesn't need to be trading off top prospects for big time rentals. Not only are they taking the bump in payroll (which they can handle, so its not the big issue), but they're giving up young, cost-controlled players. Pitchers are going to get hurt. Pitchers, especially relievers, are going to regress. Either prospects or money will have to be used to bolster that bullpen.

For prolonged success, the Rays must continue to have a relatively deep farm system, through both solid drafting and through only dealing prospects for solutions which are under contract for least two years.

"Unless they feel that Fernando Perez can come close to what Crawford would give them, and just have Perez replace Crawford. There is no chance Perez could replace Crawford before last season, but if CC gives us a another stinker like last year, then they could be pretty darn close statistically, minus 8 or so million dollars."

Which I don't think Perez could do.

Perez has the speed, but I doubt he has the power. I think CC rebounds.

"Perez has the speed, but I doubt he has the power"

yeah crawford has a bit more power now, and much more power potential. Perez wasnt too much of a slouch though, with 3 HR in 60 AB this year. Probably good for 8-12 annually. Couple that with 50-60 SB and pretty darn good player. Its his strike outs that worry be.

The Rays wont do a rental.

If I am the Yankees Cano is not available for Holliday. Just wait until next year, you know, when you actually may need a LF, and go after him then. Or, I dont know, just go after Manny Ramirez right now, who is infinitely better then Matt Holliday, and he won't cost you a future batting champion in Cano. You put Cano in Colorado I think his line looks like .... .330/.380/.500. He is too talented to trade for a rental player, especially a rental player who has never proved he is even capable of being good outside of Colorado.

Me and YFS78 agree. Somewhere pigs have begun to fly, and there is a forecast of snowshowers in Hell.

"I'd consider dumping Upton and his lackadasical ways and putting a package together with Niemann and Talbot or Ruggiano for Holliday and Fuentes"

Why the hell would you "dump" one of the top 10 CF in the game right now. Who's also pretty cheap. Seriously.

Fuentes is a free agent, by the way. You can't trade for him.

And, that package doesn't net Holliday alone.

Yankees Fan Since '78 is wise beyond his years.

Melonis, I watched Upton closely all year..he's on track to become the next Albert Belle, Andruw Jones malcontent...damn right I'd trade him to get 35+ dingers from a still fairly young and athletic rightfielder with a much better attitude..

Just if you guys want a laugh:
http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/beijingblog/Yanks2009.pdf

I wonder if some of you people actually follow baseball at all.

1) Matt Holliday plays left field.

2) Holliday's road OPS over the last 3 years is 950. Hmmm, above average?

3) Fuentes is a free agent.

4) Why are people using RBIs as an argument for anything? This is 2008, not 1988.

Sorry, had to vent. Carry on.

GoSox, Clint Barmes is NOT better than Cano. Even in a down year Cano was better than Barmes. I realize you might feel some obligation to rip on any Yankee player but please be realistic. Barmes is not a very good player and saying that he's better than one of the better young 2b's in the game is pretty silly.

I'm obviously not a Rays fan but other than him not running out a grounder once or twice this year I've never heard anything bad about this kid. Furthermore, when Madden benched him and had a conversation with him he really seemed to turn things around and respond to it. He's stilla kid and he's probably the most talented player on your team. They would be crazy to trade Upton. Just watching him reach 1st by beating out a groundball, steal second, steal third and score on an out made me love this kids talent level and hustle in the playoffs. I wish the Yanks had a player like that. get beyond one or two things that get blown out of propotion in the media. It's just like the situation with Cano. He went thru a little period when his head wasn't in the game, got benched and responded quickly. These tags have a way of lingering way too long.

Thanks nrmax88 - I was just going to post the same thing. Do people even check the stats before spouting off nonsense.

I understand we are living in a new age where front office people use these complicated mathematical formulas to better gauge a players production but this thought that all of a sudden rbi's are a meanigless stat is udderly ridculous. The game is still being won by the team that scores the most runs. Now if you want to make an arguement that Ryan Howard drives in 150 rbis because he has ROllins, Chase, etc on base all the time vs a guy like Lane Berman who has 106 rbi's despite the lack of high obp guys hitting in front of him then that's one thing. If there exists a formula that euates and levels the playing field then that's useful. But to dismiss a guys rbi production is crazy. The only rbi's that may be "useless" or simply "padding" are those runs scored in the 9th inning when the guys team is already up by 10, but even then his mission doesn't change. His job is to drive in runners.

I was typing in my Brooklyn accent.. Fa getta bout it.

Yanksfan...

Eat mor chikn

The fact that somebody had 72 RBIs tells me absolutely nothing about them without any context. A replacement level player would have 72 RBIs given the right lineup.

To say that having 72 RBIs tells me something about how much value the guy is going to provide next year is like saying it will be sunny tomorrow because it is sunny today.

It's nonsense when there are better methods of prediction, even if they are complicated (think doppler radar).

goSox... its cute how you just ignore the previous 3 years, you know, the years where Cano posted OPS+ of 106, 126, and 120, where Barmes cas raking to a tune of OPS+ of 90, 47, and 33 in that same period. You have me convinced. Not.

Charlie:

I'm not sure if your comment was related to what I said, but in case it did. No. You can never predict production in any stat really, because there are different variables every year. What made Wade Bogga hit .259 after hitting well over .300 every other year? The best you can do is look at the circumstances each year (who's hitting in front/behind him, the ball park he's playing in, age and health). If a guy has a consitant history of being productive then in most cases you can predict similar stats but it's far from a science.

I don't think it's a coincidence that Arod has had MVP years when he's had a healthy Matsui, Sheff or Posada batting behind him:

MVP Years:

2005: Matsui 23hr/116rbi, Sheff 34hr/123rbi

2007: Matsui 25hr/103rbi, Posada 20hr/90rbi

Non-MVP years:

2006: Matsui 8hr/29rbi (51 games), Sheff 6hr/29rbi (39 games)

2008: Matsui 9hr/45rbi (93 games), Posada 3hr/22rbi (51 games)

What irks me about people talking about Cano is that they want to look only at his 08 stats and use that too determine his worth rather than looking at a more realistic evalutation using the last 3 years. He's very young so why is this year valid but 07 and 06 not? It's different than looking at 08's stats for a player in his late 30's who's obviously in decline because in his case his 07 and 06 stats are useless and his 08 stats could be the start of a trend.

This was easily Barmes' career season to this point. And it still was nothing more then league average. Cano has already posted multiple seasons that just obliterate Barmes' career bests. He is also 4 years younger. But no, you're right, Barmes is better and anybody would rather have him over Cano.

ok wow i might as well find the biggest tree in the forest and start smashing my head against it...

first off, i never said Jack about OPS, never said he was a better player, as a matter of fact, i said :
"
"GoSox, Clint Barmes is NOT better than Cano. Even in a down year Cano was better than Barmes."

hmmm

2008:

Barmes- 107G 25Doubles 6 Triples 11HR 44RBI .290AVG 13 sb

10 errors (6 at 2b)

Cano- 159G 35Doubles 2 Triples 14HR .271AVG 2 sb

13 errors at 2b

if i have to pick one of the two to ahve on my team for next year assuming they play close to every game...hmm... ill take barmes"

now,
1.my primary objective was to point out that the rockies dont need/want cano..am i right? ok good im right about that

2. i wanted to defend the statement of
"even in a down year Cano was better than Barmes." did i do that ? yes i did.. ok good,

so anyone blabbering at me about cano being better than barmes has the comprehension skills of a squirrel

additionally, i was saying how if barmes was gunna put up the type of numbers he did this past year, id rather have him as my 2B...much better defensively, much cheaper...

"Melonis, I watched Upton closely all year..he's on track to become the next Albert Belle, Andruw Jones malcontent...damn right I'd trade him to get 35+ dingers from a still fairly young and athletic rightfielder with a much better attitude.."

Wow you are an idiot who obviously buys into the biased media point of view. There is no way you watched Upton all year. Did you happen to see the postseason, and how he was one homer away from tying the alltime postseason homerun record? Or how he had a torn labrum that zapped his power, and he tried hitting the ball to the opposite field until the postseason when, guess what, his power showed up. And its obvious you saw all of his highlight reel catches and throws, and his 44 stolen bases, and his 97 walks as a 23/24 year old. Dude, dont talk.

"Melonis, I watched Upton closely all year..he's on track to become the next Albert Belle, Andruw Jones malcontent...damn right I'd trade him to get 35+ dingers from a still fairly young and athletic rightfielder with a much better attitude.."

delmonmvp pretty much summed it up beautifully.

Damn you, typekey.

Let's try this again.

"Melonis, I watched Upton closely all year..he's on track to become the next Albert Belle, Andruw Jones malcontent...damn right I'd trade him to get 35+ dingers from a still fairly young and athletic rightfielder with a much better attitude.."

delmonmvp pretty much summed it up beautifully.

leftyslider, you are an idiot.

And, your Andruw Jones comparison has fallacies, since he had 11 solid years with the Braves, won 10 Gold Gloves, and had 371 career HRs (368 with the Braves). If Upton puts up stats like that over that long a period of time, I'm sure the Rays will be very happy.

Oh and by the way, all you's guys need to shut up about Cano, he's a beast, even with an off year he he some hot at-bats (he just didn't show it as much.) and he's easily in the top 3 best fileders for 2nd base, he's unstopable in the field, and he don't have a bad attitude either, you just hatin because your a sox fan. .

"he's easily in the top 3 best fileders for 2nd base, he's unstopable in the field"

hmm no... i would say defensively

1.Pedroia
2.Hudson
3.Polanco
4.Ellis
5.Brandon Phillips
6.Fontenot
7.Grudzelanik
8.Hill
9.Iwamura
10.Ramirez
11.Scutaro
12.DeRosa
13.Kendrick
14.Cora
15.Asdrubal Cabrera
16.Sanchez

ill stop there... not in perfect order but all those guys are better defensively than cano...dont know what to tell you buddy... sorry?

wow...i didn't have an account but after reading what some of you IDIOTS wrote i just had to get one...CANO ISN'T VALUABLE!? are u serious right now? the guy is a nasty second baseman with a very valuable bat in which u can't really find out of second baseman's! when you can get 15 or 20+ homers outta ur second baseman and a possible 80-95 rbi's...what more can u ask for?! especially in a guy that batted near the end of the batting order for the yankees...usually last..and the yankees no doubt sucked last year mainly because of injuries...and cano would bat 1-5 on mostly any other team in the league! and don't get me goin on clinton barmes bein as valuable as cano! are u kiddin me?! im just wondering how many ppl had clinton barmes on their fantasy teams last year? hahahahahaa...compared to everyone having robinson cano despite his off year (or month i should say)...the guy is definitely one of the top young 2b's in the league and he'll prove it this year now that people like giambi who bats 240% aren't in front of him! and gosox...i understand ur a red sox fan...but be realistic dude..don't be hatin just b/c ur a sox fan...yea im a die hard yanks fan but ill admit every time that david ortiz is sick or pedroia had a great year last year...so don't gimme ur b/s on how everyone on the yankees blows and isn't valuable u dumbass...i think i proved my point