Reds In Trade Talks For Dye?

Would be a heck of a buy low for KW.

Trading JD made a lot more sense BEFORE they traded Swisher.

Kenny Williams has something big up his sleeve but is not tipping his hand yet.

The Reds just got rid of an old, high salaried Outfielder with limited range on Defense last year (King Griffey Junior). They also got rid of another high salaried Outfielder with limited range on Defense (Adam "ONE TOOL" Dunn) so WHY now trade Homer Bailey and another player for Dye?

Face it, Ca$htellini has said the payroll will raise some from what it was in 2008 ($74 million dollars) while Jockitchy has said guys like Pat Burrell are a little pricey. With a bad economy and, eight straight losing seasons and declining attendance, I tend to believe Jockithcy when he says guys are expensive. That means, the Reds will NOT increase payroll.

So, since the Reds have already said they have some holes to fill and/or positions to upgrade and they look to be losing three guys from the Bull Pen, if Jockitchy trades Bailey for Dye then watch the other holes be filled with scrub or retread players because Dye will have taken up most of the salary space for 2009.

This is why I was so upset about the Reds NOT trading for Josh Willingham of the Marlins. Willingham could have been had for a couple of B level Minor Leaguers and his cost in Salary Arbitration would have been $5 million dollars a year or less. This would have given the Reds a Right Handed power hitter for Left Field and left them enough money to sign Jeremy Affeldt.

With my plan, the Reds could have filled two holes by trading away a couple of unneeded Minor Leaguers and spending less than $10 million dollars and STILL had Homer Bailey as a trade chip.

With these rumors of what Jockitchy is wanting to do, the Reds will get an old, high paid Outfielder with limited range, will ahve given up Homer Bailey and another player and will STILL have holes to fill and not much payroll room left to do it.

In the end, if Dye were to have 100 RBI's as a Red in 2009 (compared to Willingham having 80 to 90 RBI's), is it really worth the extra $6 million dollars and NOT having Affeldt in the Bull Pen and Bailey as a trade chip? I don't think so.

Ack... I mean "pull the trigger", not "pull the plug" in that last post. My bad.

That's a horrible idea for the Sox. If we were getting another player, like Freel, that might be palatable, but Jermaine Dye for Bailey alone is nowhere near a good enough return.

Sure Dye's 35, but the guy's automatic to hit .280-.300 with 30+ HRs. To sell him low for a glorified prospect would be a huge dent in the Sox having a chance to contend in 2009.

If Bailey hadn't fallen off the last 2 years, It might be a bit more plausible...

This trade makes sense for the Sox if they have a deal to sign Abreu in hand. Then KW needs to trade Javy to a non-West team for a leadoff hitter who can play 2B or CF.

As I die hard White Sox fan, I think it's time to dismantle most of the current team. The only untouchables should be Quentin, Danks, Ramirez and Floyd. Everyone else should be on the block. Dye is a great clubhouse guy and was invaluable to the '05 WS team, however, he's headed for a stiff decline in the next year or two. I think KW has some HUGE tricks up his sleeve.

Soxluv:

Yeah, I see where you're coming from. But I'm seeing guys like Crede, Cabrera, Swisher and now Dye going out and no major leaguers coming back in.

I certainly won't be buying any tickets to a '09 Sox youth movement - we'd be back to the late 90's all over again.

I prefer the Sox reload with real talent than rebuild with failed prospects.

CGF,

Honestly, do you know much about these players at all? Quentin was a failed prospect, howd that turn out? Bailey is extremely young and isnt even close to "failed" status yet. He is easily 5 years of crappiness away from that status, and in all likelihood can turn it around before then.

09 youth movement huh? The best players on the team are under 30 right now, do you hate that "youth movement".

rangersvoice,

It also makes no sense for the Reds to trade Bailey for an overhyped Catcher from the Rangers. There are multiple teams out there looking for Catching help and every one of them seem to be focusing on the Rangers. That means whatever the real value of a Rnager's Catcher is is driven up and overinflated by the competition.

Because of this, it might be worth it to a team like the Red Sox to overpay for a Catcher but not a team like the Reds. I mean, overpaying for a guy like Gerald Laird, Saltalamachia (who is more likely to become a First Baseman) or Shoppach of the Indians makes no sense for the Reds because none of them will get the Reds close to be a contender.

If overpaying for one of those guys is in the Reds thinking, they would be better off just NOT trading for a Catcher and resigning David Ross. When Ross was let go by the Reds last year, he had a higher Batting Average, On Base Percentage, Slugging Percentage and OPS than Paul Bako. Yet Jockitchy thought it was better to keep Bako than Ross and Baker thought it was better to play Bako over Hanigan a lot of Games in September.

No, if the Reds are thinking about trading Homer Bailey and are in need of a Catcher, I suggest (again) they trade Bailey, Alex Gonzalex and ??? to the Giants for Bengie Molina and Randy WInn.

Molina is better than all of the guys listed above, both on Offense and Defense. He has won Gold Glove Awards and has been the starting Catcher on a World Series winning team. To top it off, he speaks Spanish so he would be of HUGE value to Edison Volquez and Johnny Cueto.

Randy Winn is a speedy switch hitting Outfielder who has a good Batting Average, can steal some bases and who is a really good Defensive Outfielder - just what the Reds need especially compared to guys they ahve had (KGJ, Dunn) and guys they are rumored to be interested in trading for (Jermaine Dye).

As far as the Giants goes, getting a young guy like Homer Bailey would be a good deal for them. By getting rid of a couple of highly paid veterans they would free up salary space. By adding Bailey, a guy who would benefit greatly from going from a hitters park to a pitchers park, they could then trade another Pitcher (Matt Cain?) for somebody like Prince Fielder and this would help their Offense out.

Alex Gonzalez, if healthy, would be a much better idea at Short Stop than Omar Vizquel last year and Rafeal Furcal or Edgar Rentaria next year. A Gon is better on Defense than either of those two guys and he is signed for only one more year at $5.75 million dollars.

It does say and another player, so lets see who that other player is before we make judgement.

Soxluv, nobody gave up on Danks, the Rangers traded him for McCarthy because they felt they both had the same upside and McCarthy was more major league ready.

(copying over from redlegnation.com...)

This rumored deal reminds me way too much of this deal:

December 8, 1987: Dave Parker traded by the Cincinnati Reds to the Oakland Athletics for Jose Rijo and Tim Birtsas.

Parker - age 36, had finished in the top 5 of the NL MVP race at ages 34 and 35, then had a so-so year at age 36 (.253/.311/.433), but still had 26 HR and 97 RBI for the Reds.

Rijo - age 22, and had just pitched 82 IP for the A’s, going 2-7 with a 5.90 ERA and a 1.79 WHIP.

We all know who got the better end of that deal.

According to Baseball Prospectus, Dye was good for between 7-8.5 WAR last year. That would've been tops on the Reds team. His 2007 wasn't nearly as good, so I figured low.

Dan M, for snicks... who would you say got the better end that deal?

The A's went to the WS in '88, '89 and '90, winning it in '89, but losing to the Reds in '90. I'd say the trade was incredibly beneficial to both teams...

whitesoxfan424,

The A's were a powerhouse from 1988-90, no doubt, but come on. You think Dave Parker had much to do with that? Parker was a decent part-time DH for them.

Check out the studs on this team:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/OAK/1988.shtml

The A's won 3 pennants and 1 World Series despite that trade, not because of it.

Oh, and for "snicks"... Parker was a Milwaukee Brewer in 1990. ;)

Parker had 900+ at bats, 40+ 2B's, 30+ HR and 150+ Rbis. I agree his average wasn't great. He did not have a good '88 season, but his '89 made up for it. To say he was a "decent part-time" player is ridiculous.

As for pennants, disagree with me if you want, but they are worthless. If you go to the World Series with the "Powerhouse" they had then lose to the Reds in 4 games? Complete disappoinment.

And yeah, I glossed over him parker being part of the brew crew in '90.

OK, Parker was a decent part-time DH in 1988 and a decent full-time DH in 1989. And then he was gone.

Is that fair to say?

My point remains - Rijo was FAR FAR more valuable than Parker from 1988 on... and the A's would've had a dominant run for a few years with or without Parker.

a package centered around homer bailey seems like a preety good catch for the white sox for a player thats aging.

As a Reds fan, I am all for the Reds dumping Bailey because I don't think he will be successful with his stuff and pitching in GASP.

That being said, I don't want him traded just to make a trade or to be traded for an overhyped Catcher (Laird, Saltalamachia, Shoppach, etc) or an older, high priced veteran Outfielder who has limited range in the Outfield(Dye).

If the Reds are going to trade Bailey, they should be looking to West Coast teams and see what holes or needs could be filled by trading Bailey and/or a package to one of them (Jake Peavy, Bengie Molina, Randy Winn, etc).

Homer Bailey sucks. As for the comment about the Sox possibly getting Jay Bruce in return and forgetting about Bailey, not a snowball's chance in hell.

nati08-

i totally agree with you on that one. No chance jay bruce is going anywhere.

Dan M,

I don't disagree with you. The problem I have is that the Reds just got rid of King Griffey Junior and Adam Dunn, a couple of power hitting Outfielders with limited range on Defense and who each took up about 15% of total team payroll and are NOW rumored to be thinking about trading Homer Bailey and at least another player for Jermaine Dye, ANOTHER power hitting Outfielder with limited range in the Outfield who would take up about 15% of total team payroll.

What sense does THAT make?

My point all along has been that the Reds are a "small market" team with a limited payroll and that it makes NO sense to sign or trade for a power hitting Outfielder who CAN'T play Defense when the team plays in a GREAT hitters park. This is why I say it made PERFECT sense for the Reds to trade for Josh Willingham.

It wouldn't have cost a lot, as far as talent goes, to get him and it wouldn't have cost a lot, salary wise, to pay him. He would have been going from a pronounced pitchers park to a hitters park and his Defense would have been equal to or greater than Adam Dunn's BUT the Reds would have been paying him at least $8 million dollars a year less than than they did Dunn.

So, with Willingham, the Reds would have gotten 80 to 90% of Dunn or Dye's RBI total but at 1/3 to 1/2 the cost and they would have still had Bailey as a trade chip and money to use to fill in other holes.

Ctown wouldn't be happy with any player. It'd be only weeks before you came up with a nonsensical nickname to show how much you don't like them.

This would be a major win for the Sox, if true.

bruce is going nowhere so you can just drop his name from any discussions

the only other MLB ready players i can even see the whitesox trying to gran is maybe EE and 3b

It's amazing, if true. Ken Williams is the best GM in the business in getting the most for veterans that are just about washed up...Congrats once again, KW.

How can the Reds be interested in Dye? He's 35 and can opt out at the end of the year. Unless the Reds are the mystery team in the sweepstakes for Furcal or continue dealing by bringing in a Brian Roberts type, this deal makes no sense as the Reds are at least 2 years away. But, you especially don't sell low on a guy like 22 year old Bailey.

Ctown- Your logic on Willingham makes sense in that he is young, affordable, and is a good defender. The problem is that he is a health risk, and the Reds do not have much "power" depth in the OF as evidenced by late last season. Jocketty is looking for something that is more of a "guarantee" producer, which Dye matches.

Dan M- I also agree with your reasoning that Homer could end up being a solid pitcher in the majors. I also see the examples you have generated in Rijo and Volquez and they both have something in common. They all needed a change of scenery to become effective. I think Homer is the same. Why not deal from your position of strength, which in this case for the Reds is young pitching, to get something that helps a young team put some more wins together.

Overall this is a good deal for the Reds depending on the other player. Dye brings production from the right side immediately. And, for those who like to build from within with prospects, he can be flipped in July if they are out of it. And if he stays the whole year, he will probably opt out of his deal and nab the Reds two draft picks as a Type A. Barring an injury, this is a win/win deal for both clubs.

Hmm...

Dye == Dunn in terms of offensive production AND defense (yes, Dye is that bad defensively).

The Reds didn't contend with the same pieces they have and Dunn in LF. What makes Jocketty think that he'll be able to do it with Dye in LF? Unless, of course, we see major improvements from Bruce, Votto, Cueto, and other young guys.

I don't know what the prospect cost would be though. I'd be wary of giving up Homer Bailey for a 1 year rental, and no way do I give up better prospects.

homer bailey came into the season ranked what? the 8th best prospect in the game.

i think you have to let him pitch one whole year in the bigs to see if hes a bust or what. im sure if he couldnt hack it as a starter he could be used in the 7th or 8th innings.

@tough:

That would be too little if you want those four. Broadway's a buy low, as is Fields, but Richard should be penciled in as our 5, if not 4th sp.

I wouldn't mind a Bailey and Freel deal for Broadway/Dye. Freel's the odd man out with Hopper and Dickerson on board and would be the Swiss Army Knife that Ozzie likes.

If you are a White Sox fan, don't fret about losing Jermaine Dye. Loosening up 12 million with a possible hole at shortstop with Rafael Furcal on the market, I'm seeing Rafael Furcal in your lineup hitting in the leadoff hole. You get a power arm with TONS of upside. Cincy is down on him after two years of up and down baseball when he was 20 and 21 years old...... Take the steal and run!

KW could be the best GM in baseball. As for Ryan Freel to the Sox I wouldn't like that as a Sox fan. The reason for trading Dye would be to get younger and save money while still competing with our young core. Freel is not young. He will be 33 at the beginning of the 09 season, Only 2 years younger than Dye.

Also Freel doesn't bring that speed element anymore. He only has 21 SB in 123 games over the last 2 years. Moreover he only has 26 walks over those 2 years. He simply would not fit in on a team that is looking for a speedy table setter that can be hit in by the slow big boppers of the team.

I'd much rather take a chance on Dickerson. He is only 26 and can hit for a little bit of power, maybe 25 HR potential in U.S. Cellular Field and can steal 25+ bases easy. The guy has shown good patience at the plate, pro-rated total of walks per 162 game season is 88. He has the tools needed to help the White Sox back to the playoffs.

One would have to think if Bailey comes to the Sox they are going to trade away some of the young pitchers for a CF. Dye would be replaced by switching Quentin to his natural position, RF. Dickerson could step in and play LF. This leaves only CF and 3B as question marks. Figgins for young pitchers? Iichiro for young pitchers?Who knows what KW is thinking, They do have Marquez, Nunez, Bailey, Richard, Poreda, Broadway, and Floyd and Danks if they wanted to make a big splash surrounded around a package of young arms.

Glad the days of Jocketty in Stl are over....this guys really thinking about this?....reminds me of the dan haren trade.....bailey has way to much upside to trade for dye....dyes worth a mid level prospect at best.....the cathers postion in st. louis is obviously blocked...wonder if KW would comsider brian anderson for Dye swap? what do sox fans think of it?...AJ is getting old

Yea but look at Doumit and Soto last year.Young and great catchers. I think its just a matter of leadership and smarts in a catcher not the age.

I'd rather keep Dye for the end of his career for when Thome leaves (which i can't wait till he does) you'll have a pretty damn solid DH, no one wants Thome, i know, but i'd move Konerko (hate to say due to he's my favorite all time player) and then do something for Javier
in '10 the team will be mighty young =)

I think the Reds might be trying to sign Furcal...meaning they cant add 2 11 million dollar players at the same time...if the Reds give up Bailey and another good prospect...Reds should get SOME salary relief, for sure.

trober81-

Take into account the major surplus of those types on the market though. Raul Ibanez might get 3 years.

Teams that legitimately need a corner OF or DH:
Cubs
Braves
Mets
Phillies
Reds
Angels maybe
Rays only as a DH
Giants maybe

FA Corner OF/DH available
Ibanez
Burrell
Abreu
Manny
Dunn
Giambi
Bradley

Not much of a bidding war for the corner OF. Although, there's always the outlying GM who will overbid for the sake of overbidding (see Bavasi and Silva or Sabean and Zito).

Gmblngptchr20~ C'mon man are you serious? Why would we eat some salary for a guy who is one of the best hitters in the game? He is gonna give you 25-35 HR a year and 90-110 RBI's and we have to eat salary? no chance bud.

"Gmblngptchr20~ C'mon man are you serious? Why would we eat some salary for a guy who is one of the best hitters in the game? He is gonna give you 25-35 HR a year and 90-110 RBI's and we have to eat salary? no chance bud."

Yes, but Dye is only under team control for 1 year, with an option. So The Sox sholdnt get a 22- year old first-round and top pitching prospect PLUS another good prospect like Stubbs/Valkia/Dickerson without eating a bit...if they take Cumberland/Dorn/or lower on the depth chart..no money would be needed.

Watch Bailey become really good.

i really dont want Fields...not do i want to give up on Dickerson..but like ive been saying all along, ill move anyone for the right players, especially if we can receive an upgrade via a dif trade or FA

Rex 6 out of the 8 teams you named are in the national league and 4 out of the 6 players you named are available to play outfield. That means the market for Dye is pretty good giving the Sox an upper hand in negotiations with any team inquiring about him

Wondering where these Votto to LF claims come from. Can anybody give me some insight there? I know he had limited time there but for 99% of his career he has played 1B

It's all about Yonder Alonso. The word is the Reds only consider him a 1B, so Votto would have to move to accommodate him. Votto played some LF in 07 for the Reds and played a fair amount of time in Louisville. At that time the Reds had Hatteberg and Cantu playing 1B.

This is the main reason I don't think the Reds are looking for a long term commitment for the impact RH bat the need if it comes in the form of a corner OF. Bruce, Stubbs, and Votto is the outfield of the future for the Reds.

With the pitching they have and a couple of added pieces, I think this team can content for a wildcard next year. That's why the Dye deal is in play. Why wait until 2010?

No way this trade goes down. Think about it, has Kenny Williams ever made a trade that EVERYONE seemed to know about? I can't think of too many. This trade rumor should die...

It's out because Jocketty a lot looser with his tongue than Krivsky was. It's kind of annoying. At this rate, the Reds will have been in on almost every trade and/or free agent. I'm sure they're going to try to do something, but if the answer is no on Bruce, Votto, Volquez, and Cueto, I'm not sure how much they can get in return.