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The season's now two and a half months old, so it's a good time to check the current Playoff Odds report at Baseball Prospectus. When Tim analyzed these odds a couple weeks ago, there were eleven teams with less than a 10% chance of making the playoffs. Now, there are ten such teams, but since the Pirates are sitting right on 10%, essentially the same number of teams seems to be out of the race.
The teams themselves are different, though. The Rockies have boosted their playoff chaces from under 5% to 21%. The Giants and Marlins didn't do as well as the streaking Rockies, but they both boosted their chances considerably. Here's the list of teams with less than a 10% chance of making the playoffs, according to BP.
- Mariners - 9.5%
- Royals - 9.2%
- Braves - 8.8%
- White Sox - 5.4%
- Astros - 4.8%
- A's - 2.9%
- Diamondbacks - 2.0%
- Padres - 1.5%
- Orioles - 0.3%
- Nationals - 0.0%
These odds can change in a hurry, as the Rockies proved, but it takes a lot. This doesn't mean these teams will all become sellers, but it would be surprising to see any of these teams, even the Braves or Mariners, make the playoffs. Contenders will probably find that adding Nick Johnson
or Aubrey Huff
is simpler than dealing for players like Brad Hawpe
, whose teams are back in the race.