Less Than 10% Chance To Make Playoffs

If you were wondering why the Cubs aren't on it, keep in mind this list is for one year, not 100.

"I had higher hopes for the Astros this year. I knew they weren't going to be good, but I had a hard time believing they would be this bad."

I believe that this is my chance to throw this out there:

I told you.

All those Houston fans insisted before the season that they could contend and that a rebuilding effort would be ludicrous.

Realistically, they don't stand a chance of winning their division, and the only reason that they won't rebuild is because Drayton McLane is delusional, and also because they saddled NTC's on all of their stars, which was obviously genius.

The Astros have a couple good pieces, but they have some serious issues. Pence is a star and I'd argue he's underrated by a lot of people, Bourn has emerged as a solid hitter, and the veteran core of Berkman/Lee/Tejada is decent.

But the bullpen isn't good and the rotation has serious depth issues (who didn't see that coming with Russ Ortiz pitching every five days..).

I'm just going to do this for all of the Houston fans out there:

Please Drayton. Give up on winning with this core. Figure out a new plan, one that actually includes spending big on the draft and development, rather than trying to slap veterans into stopgap situations, hoping to build a team that can stick around the .500 mark.

What do these number mean? Exactly nothing.

Take the White Sox for example. Before last week's 20-1 loss, their run differential was much smaller. One game made for a huge difference at this point, but over a full season the impact will be much smaller.

Do I think the Sox have a shot at the playoffs? Probably not, but they do have a better chance than the current numbers indicate.

As for Buehrle, he's not going anywhere. His contract will stop that, unless some team is desperate and willing to deal heavily in favor of the Sox.

With respect to the comment above about Dye on the Braves: you can have him, but you have to take Lillibridge back too.

I would love for the Braves to trade for Hawpe.....he is young enough to make a difference for this team for the next few years. However, they need to do a sign and trade deal since he can opt out of contract after next season if he is traded. The Braves can't trade prospects for rentals.

Bravo, the Braves would NEVER want Dukes because of his personal problems and issues. And I doubt that they would trade for Dunn either. How bad would they look after failing to sign him last offseason only to trade away valuable prospects for him now.

Also, Carnizares is the one that needs to be traded. He is horrendous defensively.....he needs to go the AL where he can DH. The Braves have groundball pitchers like Lowe and Jurrjens who need solid defensive infielders. Lowe would implode after the first few errors by Carnizares.

Coming from an Astros fan, the Astros need to rebuild, straight up. If this team is allowed to stand as is for the next 4 to 5 seasons, there is going to be a whole lot of losing going on in Houston. Oswalt still has plenty of trade value, while guys like Berkman and Lee (if he can be persuaded to waive his NTC) could bring a considerable bounty of young talent as well.

The Astros don't need to aim for Teixeira-style fleecings here...just solid returns for productive veteran players. The 2002-2005 Diamondbacks can be used as a rebuilding model.

14.4% chance??

Wait til we get back Paul Byrd, Koo KoOoOoOooOOOOo!!!!

Jermain Dye and Mark Buehrle to the Reds. White sox pick up 1/4 or so of the remaining money in the contracts, and the Reds would be willing to give up some good players i think if theyre still in it. both are very good, and an extension for either of them is not out of the question.

Reds give up:
Micha Owings
Homer Bailey
Drew Stubbs
Todd Fraizer
another C+ or B- prospect

i think that might be a good haul. to be honest i forgot how much Buehrle has left on his contract.

alright, i'll give you the carnizares sucks defensively but about dukes, my thought was that maybe he could come to a functional organization and bobby and scherholtz would tell him plane and simple they wouldn't put up with his garbage and maybe then he could get his act together. and by the time dunn's price had dropped to 10mil the braves had already signed lowe and kawakami so they didn't have the money left, but now if you dfa anderson and don't call up glavine Dunn's prorated salary is one we can afford. Will you agree though that trade is fair for washington though

At this point in the season, these projections mean truly nothing. I bet at least half of the teams currently in first place and given greater than 50% chances at winning their division do NOT end up winning it. I'd be interested to see how the Playoff Odds at this point in past years went on to compare to who actually made the playoffs...

Teams like the Cubs, Indians, and Rays will have MUCH higher percentages in two months. This site currently gives the Tigers a 57% chance at winning the AL Central, the Rangers a 55% chance at winning the AL West, and the Cardinals a 51% chance at winning the NL Central... I don't think any of these teams will win their respective divisions, and these numbers are pretty meaningless, and based off a pretty small section of the season.

I'm a huge Astros fan and I have been clamoring for them to rebuild for 2.5 years now. Once we lost Clemens and Pettitte there was no hope with our staff. If McClane doesn't get out of the way and let the GM do his job and rebuild the team there will be many in Houston calling for his head.

White Sox- Gmblng, I think it's a real waste putting Micah Owings on an AL team, and I think his bat gets him a bit more attention deserves. Also, I think we can get more total value by trading Dye and Buehrle separately.

Astros- Yeah, everyone says "see, they should be sellers" but until the Astros stop putting together second half runs, they will probably be buyers in the market. Even if you think the notion of being better in the second half is absurd, I don't think the Astros FO does.

Holliday- Would a trade to the Jays make sense? The quality of package would depend on how well he hits until such a trade, but that would make waves on a team that might be inspired by last year's Rays that the division is winnable.

@GmblngPtchr20 - That package won't net you both of the players you mentioned. Homer Bailey's GO/FO ratio is not good enough for success in Chicago. Same for Micah Owings.

Stubbs would be nice, but not a centerpiece. Frazier appears to be a lesser Stubbs, so acquiring both would not help.

Stubbs and a strong pitching prospect might be enough to get Dye, but it certainly won't net both. The other two parts are not valuable.

It would take a lot more talent than you listed to get both, as Buehrle is having a great year and has some tricks in his contract which may prohibit him from being traded at all.

And don't look for the Sox to pick up any of the money at all...

"Oswalt still has plenty of trade value, while guys like Berkman and Lee (if he can be persuaded to waive his NTC) could bring a considerable bounty of young talent as well."

I highly doubt Lee has much value at all. He's a useful player, but besides Zito, his contract is probably the least team friendly in all of baseball. Unless Houston eats 90% of that salary, they'll be lucky to get a team to take him for nothing.

"And they really don't need pitching...."

Uhhh...bullpen help, please?

Not really sure why the Padres get a better chance than the Giants. San Diego's run differential is -29, while San Fran's is -3, with the Giants half a game behind the Pads. Both teams struggle to score runs, while the Giants' pitching is much stronger.

The Angels had a ridiculous 14 game differencial between run diff and actual w-l, those numbers are flawed.

I also refuse to believe any team is out until its mathematically impossible. The lopsided schedule means many games can be made up very quickly. Its not even June yet, and a team like Oakland is loaded with big time 2nd half performers. Kind of odd idea for a post, just sayin.

I love this!! Flawed or unflawed as this system may be, 3 of the 4 NL West teams have less than a 10% chance of making the playoffs while the Dodgers have over a 90% chance! Great time to be a Dodger fan!

Also, kind of unrelated but thought that I would throw it out there for fans of the other NL West teams, Kuroda and Manny (when they return) may be the best midseason pickup by any team. Not a trade, but just a couple of useful and productive additions.

On another point, this system is deeply flawed. There are so many intangibles and statistically unmeasurable aspects of the game (injuries, suspensions, etc.) to truly rely on such "predictions." I'm sure that Tim knows this, but he put up the post as a crude measuring stick of what teams are the most unlikely to end up making the playoffs.

"I think it's time that the Mariners REALLY look into trading Ichiro while he still has "some" trade value."

How much trade value does a 36 year old singles hitter have that has 68M left on his contract? The team he has the most value to already owns his rights.

Take what they say with a grain of salt. When the Sox clinched the division in 05 they said they had a 98% chance of making the playoffs. They were already in.

Well, odds are that one of these teams make a run towards the playoffs at some point. It's a lot of teams, in an age where there's always more "parity"... so some of these trade possibilities will be moot.

And to the Giants fans... why is Bowker being overlooked in all the talk about dealing Winn... Bowker is killing in AAA right now and has solid power numbers. Does his defense really stink, or what?

Woot! The Orioles are up from the 1% and smallest chance they hit earlier this month!

Next goal: sole possession of 4th place.

Re: comments about Dodgers supposed lack of injuries.

Perhaps you haven't looked at our bullpen. We've lost Kuo, arguably the most effective setup man in all of baseball last season. We've also lost Wade to injury and he has yet to regain his '08 form, and Ohman just recently hit the DL. So, we've been without Kuroda, Manny, Kuo, Wade and now Ohman. Our bullpen hasn't been anywhere near as strong as it was last season, and is our weak point right now.

I have my doubts about Kuroda replicating his '08 success, but he'll almost certainly be an upgrade over Milton or Stults, whomever is dropped. Having Kuroda back (and his ability to go deeper into games than Stults/Milton) should also help the bullpen somewhat.

And, while Pierre has overachieved with Manny suspended, Ethier has been absolutely awful. If he doesn't regain his form before or shortly after Manny's return, we may see a Manny - Kemp - Pierre outfield which (if everybody continues to perform as they have) would give our offense a huge boost.

I do, however, think the notion that the Padres will finish over the Giants is ridiculous. The Giants have a much better and more consistent team. The Padres will come crashing back down to Earth again.

Lastly, even after today's loss, the Dodgers have 6 more wins than the next best team in baseball. It is quite a bit more than just luck and weak opponents. The Dodgers are 8-3 against the East, winning series against the Mets (sweep) and Phillies. And the NL West overall has been stronger than the NL East. The Giants, Padres, and Diamondbacks all have winning records against the NL East, too. And the Dodgers have winning records against all of those teams.