Dodgers After George Sherrill

Timing sucks on this for LA, I don't want to do this deal if Kuo is back and healthy, but who knows on him.

I think this is a reasonably fair deal for both sides.

I think for this to make sense for the O's, they need to get a young corner IF prospect (Joshua Bell, perhaps?) and a decent pitching prospect.

Pedro Baez and Scott Elbert, get it done I would think?

Posted by: John Porter | July 27, 2009 at 07:16 PM

Sounds pretty close, if you ask me. The only thing that worries me is that Elbert is on the Dodgers' 40-man roster, and I don't know that MacPhail would want to have to clear a spot on his.

How about Blake DeWitt, Mora isn't getting any younger and their 3B prospects look pretty average in Baltimore. Maybe DeWitt and a throw in arm. Someone with 95-96 mph velocity and limited control... In other words a project pitcher that has upside, but who needs a change of address or a new coach that can speak to him.

What about Steve Johnson...big, young RHP at Triple-A, born in Baltimore?

Baez and Elbert would be massive overpayment for a fringe closer like Sherrill, Sherrill is basically a glorified situational lefty that closes ballgames for a last place team.

As a Dodger fan I wouldn't trade Elbert for Sherrill. Elbert has a chance to be better then Sherrill as a reliever and before his shoulder injury he had a top of the rotation type of arm. He still has a good heavy fastball and hard nasty curve ball. He has had success this year pitching out of the pen but was stupidly demoted for Jason Sch(m)idt.

"Baez was in the futures game, so he is there best 3rd base prospect and maybe best infield prospect they have."
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He has zero plate discipline and isn't exactly destined for a Gold Glove... good potential offensively and defensively, but also high risk. Too high risk to be the main piece of a deal in my opinion... and a short reliever with control and injury problems shouldn't be the main piece either.

I dont think that Baez is better than DeJesus or Gordon. They are both SS, and are good prospects. Heres a scouting report on Baez. Its not very strong, but something interesting:

Other-Baez's frame has decent projectability and he's a very good athlete. Some have speculated that if he doesn't learn to hit, he could be tried as a pitcher.

Projection-Baez's ceiling is sky high because of his huge power, but whatever faith I had that he would ever learn how to hit is beginning to wane. He needs to show some kind of improvement in the discipline department in 2009 to elicit any positivity from me going forward."

Imagine if he is tryed as a pitcher?

With Elbert, he was Kershaw in the organization before Kershaw. He has #1 stuff, and he is proving hes healthy. If he is healthy, he could be your lefty ace.

too much, about DeJesus. He is our SS of the future, is close to the majors, even with his broken leg. He has been talked about in Halladay deals, but not Sherrill

If the Orioles can land Devaris Gordon and a pitcher like McDonald for Sherrill, that would be a great haul.

Gordon looks like a potentially dynamic leadoff bat at the shortstop position. He'd easily be their best middle infield prospect

"For Sherrill, I could see the Dodgers part with some combination of 3B Baez and/or Gallagher, SS DeJesus or Gordan (not both), 2B/3B DeWitt (if the O's need more immediate 2B/3B help), C May. LHP Leach could go back to the O's, as he's the one Sherrill would essentially replace (great stuff, kid just needs to work on his command). Or an AA/AAA pitcher like Sartor or Schlichting or Garate."

I think that Devaris Gordon could be a decent centerpiece for Sherrill, they really need a shortstop in their system.

If the Orioles could land Dee Gordon and Josh Bell, that would be a great return for them. That's a potential impact SS/3B combo in a couple years.

I wonder if that unannounced start is a deadline pitcher...

Anyways, I dont think that they trade anyone of their top guys before they know whats going on with Lee and Halladay. There would be no point in trading Gordon for Sherrill if he is wanted for Halladay.

Scribble, I think Gordon for Sherrill is an overpay. I wouldnt be surprised if Gordon and DeJesus are our SS/2B combo for yrs to come in a few yrs. I think theyd be hesitant to trade SS prospects for a reliever...

I think Elbert can go either way right now. There is some concerning things about him. His frame is small, and his delivery. The first time he put together back-to-back 100+ IP seasons he broke down with the injury. He's so young right now though that he hasn't had a real chance to rebound by putting together another sustained go-round in a rotation. I couldn't imagine the Os have reservations because of talent. He is obviously an excellent prospect with extreme upside. The biggest problem is his chance of injury, which I think is high.

I'd love to see the Orioles move Sherrill for Elbert and Gordon/Dewitt. We could throw a PTBNL in as well. As an Orioles fan, we have a lot of relievers that could be moved up within the next year. Someone could easilt fill-in for Sherrill, like Johnson, Ray, or even Mickolio.

basemonkey, for what Gordon's value and what he means to the Dodgers, yes. Gordon is the knid of SS prospect that the Indians or Jays would want. IF they trade their top pitchers, Lee/Halladay, then they waive the white flag, and a guy who can be the SS of the future is a huge piece. It doesnt make sense for them to trade him to the Os for Sherrill. He wont be our closer, so he'll just be another reliever. Both the Indians and Jays will be looking for a SS of the future, and the dodgers arent going to trade DeJesus and Gordon, so unless they arent going to get a top pitcher, they shouldnt trade him.

With Elbert, he got hurt because, IMO, he wasnt ready to pitch as much as he did. However, he was the Kershaw in the Dodger org before Kershaw. He can still be a #1, and it is too much for a reliever. Like Gordon, he can be in a ace package, in fact, he could be one of the MLB ready guys, so until the starter talks are complete, they shouldnt be traded for a reliever...

I think Elbert can certainly be a #1 or #2 pitcher. I don't think that's questioned much. It's the injury situation with him. I look at him and think Scott Kazmir..even Linaecum. I regard both of those guys highly, but Kazmir's early career worries about his size and delivery has proven to be correct, more and more. When he's in there, he's argualy the best LHP in the AL, but injuries here and there has wittled down his performance with more frequency. Every young phenom pitcher at age 20-23 looks like a future stud. The attrition rate evens it out.

As far as trading Gordon, hmmm. I see what you mean. For the Dodgers, they'd be trading for stacking their bullpen depth, esp. the left side, for a playoff run, but wouldn't use Sherrill as a closer. Maybe it's not worth that much to them? Gordon may or may not be the future SS. I don't mean to diminish Gordon at all. SSs come from somewhere, and Gordon looks like a great young toolsy speedy high contact talent. He can grow in any number of ways. I am just saying that he still needs probably 1-2 more years to even start talking about a major league appearance, and a lot of things can happen between now and then. Just becase he's in the system and looks like a stud 1-2 years away doesn't mean he will be. Again I am not diminishing his talent at all. I am just saying his distance away from the majors entails some risk, therefore modifies his value. A supposed trade of him would be trading off known current day MLB value in Sherrill for some package of risk but talented young players who might contribute tomorrow.

I guess the essence of a trade for Sherrill, from a Dodgers perspective, is asking what would be a centerpiece of a deal? The Dodgers system is typically strong, but we're catching it in an unusually weak year because of promotions and such. If Dodgers fans are shying away from dealing Elbert and/or BA Dodgers #7 prospect, Gordon, than what we're really saying is Dodgers fans would prefer to offer a package of C prospects of varying potential.

As an Os fan, I just don't think that will do it. The Dodgers need to at least offer that one guy that makes the Orioles stand up and pull the trigger.

monkey, like i said they wont trade their top guys until Lee/Halladay are settled. If we trade for Lee tomorrow, whatever prospects arent used could be used in a Sherill deal. We arent saying that we wont eventually trade guys, but right now, we are waiting.

One guy who could interest them is McDonald. He is a bullpen arm for us, but could be a 5th starter this yr, and has #3 potenital..

lakersdodgersyankees4life (though I don't know what the Yanks are doing in there)- I agree entirely; you have to go 'hard on' (tee-hee) Halladay/Lee first and foremost and reserve your top prospects for a shot at the big starters available. But assuming they DO NOT move for Halladay/Lee, it sounds like Sherrill will be their top priority; in which case- and I'm only speaking as a fan- I'd hope for something along the lines of Gordon, Bell, and the Baltimore boy (Johnson?). Honestly, we've got pitching out the wazoo and Elbert's arm scares the crap out of me (though I won't deny the potential), so if it's a matter of either/or, I'd take the bats. You guys are pretty well set for the future (I think) and we're hurting for bats down on the farm. I doubt MacPhail would agree with me, given that Gordon is in A ball and Bell, himself, is still a year or so away, but...that's my take.

661dodgerblue- every fan thinks X is too much for Y when it comes to prospects, but the reality is that you've got to give something to get something and, for every TOP prospect that turns into a star, there are 20+ who top out at league average...or never make it at all. I understand your point of view, but if Sherrill helps you win a WS, does it really friggin' matter. It ain't like you're mortgaging the future; not when half your team is still in its 20's.

Im from NY. My grandfather was a grocery boy for Babe Ruth when he was on the Yanks. I have VERY deep Yankee lines, but I honestly hate the 'lets spend a billion dollars an offseason' approach, I think its cause Im also a huge fan of the Dodgers.

And 661, I think you and milehigh are agreeing, to an extent. I think all Dodger fans know that we shouldnt make a Sherrill deal with our top guys until the ace talks are done.

But milehigh, the whole point we were able to win with a team has half the roster of 20 something, is because we kept our guys. We kept Kemp, Kershaw, Billz, Loney, Martin, Broxton, etc; and now they are legit MLB players. Out of those 6 guys, you could say that 2(Kemp and Broxton) are one of, if not the best, at their postions.

661, one more thing(I know im jumping around, sorry). The scary thing with the pen is we have thrown the 2nd most innings. We have had Wade, Kuo, Belisario, and Broxton all have injuries, varying on seriousness. Can we rely on Kuo to be the guy he was last yr, and take pressure off the others? IDK. If we can get lee or Halladay, and then get Sherrill, that would be the best. It would cost a lot of prospects, but out team would be set for a few yrs. Lee is signed through next yr, and Sherrill is for 2.5 Yrs. The key guys who are going to be FAs(Hudson, Wolf) each seem willing to come back.

Again, I dont deal any top guys until our rotation situation is set, but then Sherrill would be a strong guy.

One more thing..

Pavano should be on the move, I would like to see the Dodgers offer a mid level guy for him.

We need a 5 starter, Schmidt is not the answer.. At least Schmidt throwing 85 isnt.

One more thing, I do NOT want Pavano.

We should remember that every season there is a new crop of guys who have sick #1 type starter stuff. Elbert is in the mix, along with a million other guys. You almost have to be that type of prospect to get a real shot at a majorleague job. Otherwise you have to be the kind of player who works hard and overacheives his way into regular time.

To me, based on available facts, Elbert will probably not make it as a starting pitcher. As a 19 year old he made a major jump from about 49 innings to 115. You may be able to do that with a guy with a large frame and solid shoulder girdle, but not Elbert. He's about 6' and has a high torque delivery. He may be recovered from the injury, but he's still the same size, uses the same delivery. Since nothing is changed, I don't see why we must assume a different outcome. That being said, I hope he does make it.

Get this deal done!!!!

We need Sherrill

Jesus Christ, I'm watching the game and it's freakin killing me that we're now getting blown out by a potential team we might face in the playoffs. Bills is totally UNRELIABLE. We have no choice. Seriously we have NO choice.

Proposed trade: Bills, Loney, Martin, prospect for Cliff Lee and V-mart.

DON'T TELL ME WE NEED TO KEEP BILLS IN THE PLAYOFFS. He's sharp early, then he breaks down...

Elbert could have been close IF he didn't mess up his arm.

Good one Scott

Upside potential: Think Scott Kazmir as a starter or Billy Wagner as a back-end bullpen piece.'

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/minorleagues/prospects/y2009/profile.jsp?t=p_top&pid=455092

Heres a quote from MLB.com after injury on potenital

A seed to plant into Dodger fans heads. I was exchanging emails with Kensai, the guy who runs memoriesofkevinmalone.com , a Dodger site. And he said that Sherrill is Elbert, if Elbert fails at being a starter.

And regarding Elbert and his starting career, Kensai felt that he will be a #3 with #1 stuff, but his control is an issue. However, his SO have been great pre and post injury that, if he can fix his control, he could be a legit #1.

Thats the amazing thing with the Dodger's farm. They have devolped Billz, Kershaw, and Elbert in the last 4 yrs, all with ace stuff..

On Elbert:

At any given time, every year there's a few hundred young guys in baseball with "Ace-caliber velocity or stuff" but needs to work on command. Historically probably less than 10 actually develop a productive measure of command to sustain an MLB career. Once every 5-10 years a pitcher develops into something special. Those odds are like lottery odds when you work out probabilities, but it's worth the risk to teams until the service time and price becomes a burden.

Command can be refined, but to a good degree, it cannot be taught. It is an inborn talent in itself. It is linked to mechanics, body control, and physical frame, certain things do not change with a player over time. So talent evaluators need to be realistic about how much improvement can occur. Though there will always be the dreamers who will hold out hope for a miraculous turnaround (which does happen every now and then).