Odds And Ends: Red Sox, Strasburg, Halladay

Anybody know if Yu Darvish will ever play MLB?

Assuming a team is only trading prospects for Halladay + a bad contract, what teams can actually afford to take on $24M (or $12M over half a year) or more added salary?

Thank you, Mazz. As much as I'd love to have Halladay, there's no way it's happening.

I love Mazz, even though I frequently disagree with him. But I'm sorry to say that there is a strong probability that only 3 teams are on Doc's radar for no-trade waiver. I can't imagine Doc wanting to go to the West coast. For that reason, the Phils, Yanks and Sox are likely the only viable contenders. I think the Sox have to compete in this sweepstakes if only to keep the Yanks from acquiring him. We certainly can open a roster spot in the rotation by releasing Smoltz (15 inn.; 20 hits; 11 runs; 6.60 ERA; OpBA of .313). I'd say Theo is exploring this as an option as we speak.

Release smoltz after 15 innings?He hasn't pitched in a year, you're looking at an absolutely tiny sample size when he's first coming back from injury and he's never been anything but dominant when healthy. Not to mention if you treat Smoltz like that you can probably kiss good bye the chance of getting good reclamation projects in the immediate future. Seriously, are you dumb?

I don't think it matters what park you stick him in, he's gonna perform as he always has. I believe the deal breaker will be infield defense. I agree that he would have his preferences as to ballparks, but the "D" is where it's at.

It's probably good for the Red Sox that neither of those Alcantaras are related to Izzy. Izzy was a NUT!

Yeah, because Dice was so horrible in 08' right? Moron.

"Dice-K was way above average before this little bout of trouble he hit this season." - that's what you said Atomic.

2007 - 4.40 ERA / 1.324 WHIP
2008 - 2.90 ERA / 1.324 WHIP
2009 - 8.23 ERA / 2.200 WHIP

I would say that he has been extremely average over 3 years. His 2008 ERA was a fluke and looking at W/L is just silly. In 2008 his BABIP dropped to an unsustainable 260 average (LUCKY). FIP's bears that out showing an expected score of 4.23 in 2007 (in line with his actual ERA) and a much higher (when compared to ERA) FIP score of 4.03 in 2008.

In 2008 Dice-K was LUCKY. When you remove luck you get a VERY AVERAGE starter. Out of 40 starting pitchers in the AL who threw at least 160 innings, Dice-K ranked 25th in WHIP, 35th in K/BB, 39th in pitches/PA, and was 40th in walks allowed. Granted Dice-K did well in K's but that's really it. He was lucky and every single peripheral shows that.

Going forward, it's entirely reasonable to assume that you will see a pitcher with an ERA between 3.75 and 4.5. A pitcher who might give you 200 innings but probably closer to 180 (due to his high pitch count per inning). I think Dice-K is a solid pitcher on virtually any staff but is worth nowhere close to the $18m or so the Sox have and will spend on him annually. He's a good 3/4 starter on a good team.

In otherwords - he's pretty average.

Wow, RED SOX DYNASTY, B3NG4L and bjsguess just proved why Dice-K is overrated. Just because you come 3rd in Cy Young voting doesn't automatically make you good.

The stats don't lie. He got very lucky in 2008 and his market correction is rearing its ugly head right now in 2009. He's overpaid and definitely overrated. Bad move by the Red Sox to give him all that money.

gfulla, I'm looking at an awful sample, albeit small in the MLB. But I'm also looking at his rehab progress through months of A and AA ball. He's been mediocre at best to downright awful throughout. I gave him 3 outtings before beginning to think he needs to go. Now, I'm strongly leaning toward recommending releasing him and giving Buchholz his well-deserved shot.

Steve, Ok. But sorry, I dont believe half the "he lives in so and so area so will only want to be in whatever region", it rarely holds true when players sign FA deals, and almost never when players are traded. I also dont see "generally fold in the playoffs" as any reason any player would ever stay away from any team - getting to the playoffs is a goal of everyone, and past postseason performance is not an indicator of future postseason performance. After all, if "generally fold" held true, neither Sox team would have ever won a WS.

Red Sox don't need Halladay in ay shape or form. Their strength is in SP and the price would be too high for it to be worthwhile.
I've been saying for ages the Jays should dump Well's in the Halladay deal, which I guess a team like LA would be perfect but if LA think they can steal him without giving up one of Kemp, Eithier, Loney, Kershaw or Billingsley then they're wrong.

I doubt LA will want to part with either pitcher so if I were Toronto I would be aiming for Loney or Kemp and then Dejesus, Broxton, Dewitt and a pitching prospect.
An giving LA Well's and Halladay... hell if I were the Toronto GM I would be willing to take Juan Pierre's contract if it means dumping Well's.

Rios is still VERY tradable so they don't need to think about dumping him, whereas Halladay is the ONE shot Toronto have of getting rid of Well's contract.