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Elias Rankings Update
At the end of each season, The Elias Sports Bureau ranks all MLB players numerically based on a bunch of stats. Every player is categorized in one of five position groups and by league. The rankings cover a two-year time period. They are used to determine whether free agents are Type A, Type B, or neither. If you'd like a reminder on how draft pick compensation works, read up here.
Eddie Bajek of Detroit Tigers Thoughts reverse-engineered the Elias Rankings last year. Eddie's incredible work was made possible in large part due to information provided by ESPN's Keith Law. Eddie is now providing the rankings exclusively to MLB Trade Rumors. Today's snapshot covers the beginning of the 2008 season through October 4th, 2009. The AL rankings may change once more based on Tuesday's game. Note to journalists: if you use these projections in an article, please credit Eddie Bajek and MLB Trade Rumors.
View the latest Elias Rankings below.
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Tim - are these 100% accurate or is there a chance that there could be some slight discrepancies?
Posted by: bjsguess | October 05, 2009 at 10:20 PM
Rich Harden falls to a B
Posted by: bwit43 | October 05, 2009 at 10:35 PM
So that's cool. Even if the Angels don't resign anyone, they have 4 type A's and 1 type B.
Sounds like a win/win to me!
Posted by: Monkeyspanked | October 05, 2009 at 10:37 PM
It blows my mind that Ichiro is just a type B but Jermaine Dye and Shin Soo Choo qualify as Type As.
Posted by: MarinerFella | October 05, 2009 at 10:47 PM
I would allow for the chance of discrepancies. Eddie has to pull the data from a few places, and those sites are prone to human error. Doesn't take much to throw off the rankings. Before Nov. he is going to put out his final version and we'll let you know.
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | October 05, 2009 at 11:20 PM
how in the world is Crawford a B? along with Ichiro it makes no sense, do you have to hit for power to qualify as an A
Posted by: Price14 | October 05, 2009 at 11:29 PM
There should just be another scale for Mauer. Everyone else simply pales in comparison to him with the bat and glove at catcher.
Posted by: johns | October 05, 2009 at 11:30 PM
"how in the world is Crawford a B? along with Ichiro it makes no sense, do you have to hit for power to qualify as an A"
It's based on the same numbers that are used for arbitration. Runs scored, RBI, and HR's.
So basically it's an old system that is in deep need of revamping.
Posted by: bigpupp | October 05, 2009 at 11:32 PM
No offense to Santana but what rates him the highest pitcher in the NL?
Posted by: CitizenSnips | October 05, 2009 at 11:44 PM
Santana and Lincecum have essentially the same rating on the list. Based on the formula, though, it looks like Lincecum beats Santana in games, wins, winning percentage, ERA, strikeouts, and innings over the last two years. I believe those are all of the categories used, so I have no idea how Santana comes out ahead.
Posted by: Gnarburger | October 06, 2009 at 12:29 AM
Eddie, Tim - there seems to be a glitch with Brad Penny. His name hasn't appeared anywhere in the rankings since being released by Boston and signing with San Francisco. Can you get him into the NL SP list? Has his success with the Giants in September pushed him up into B status? Thanks.
Posted by: favorite | October 06, 2009 at 01:56 AM
Penny wasn't on a roster 8/31. He's not eligible for the list.
Adjust Santana's numbers for injury and he catches up to Lincecum.
Posted by: ebajek85 | October 06, 2009 at 03:18 AM
Penny wasn't on a roster 8/31. He's not eligible for the list.
Adjust Santana's numbers for injury and he catches up to Lincecum.
Posted by: ebajek85 | October 06, 2009 at 03:18 AM
bjsguess: I am going to do a thorough check of everything starting Wednesday. We'll post "tentative" rankings then, but I want to make sure everybody's DL time is correct.
Posted by: ebajek85 | October 06, 2009 at 03:19 AM
Great work, as usual, Eddie.
Looks like Polanco edged out Figgins and finished up as a Type A free agent. Unless the Tigers are dumb enough to not offer arbitration, it could be tough for Polanco to escape Detroit, at least to another contender.
Fernando Rodney was on the verge of Type A status, and he kept piling up the saves, but he dropped quite a bit down the Type B list toward the end of the season, being passed up by Brandon Lyon, among others.
FYI guys- an arbitrator is not bound by any statistical formula when making arbitration awards. The arbitrator will pick either one of the club's or the player's offers based upon what a player of like experience and performance would get. The system favors those players who have experience and have gotten bigger contracts in the past. Seldom does a player's salary go down from the prior year through arbitration.
Posted by: Tigerdog | October 06, 2009 at 04:06 AM
To reiterate, I think Iwamura should be in italics. The Rays have an option on him this year which they may turn down. Or does the italics mean it is a player option, not a team's?
Posted by: Bob R. | October 06, 2009 at 05:24 AM
I no rocket scientist, but how is Milton Bradley rated higher than Ryan Howard?
Posted by: twitter.com/huskerwho | October 06, 2009 at 05:55 AM
Because, as has been stated before, Ryan Howard is overrated by the public based on his home run and rbi totals while being marginal or sub-par in everything else.
Posted by: GScott | October 06, 2009 at 08:23 AM
"It blows my mind that Ichiro is just a type B but Jermaine Dye and Shin Soo Choo qualify as Type As."
Well, for one thing, Shin Soo Choo is really, really good.
In the past two seasons, he's posted a .303/.395/.510 line.
Ichiro, on the other hand, has a .331/.373/.424 line in the same span.
Ichiro obviously has more value defensively, but the Elias rankings hardly factor in defense into the equation. When looking at just offense, Choo is a much more productive player.
Posted by: scribbletone | October 06, 2009 at 08:34 AM
I just don't understand how this system is accurate. For instance, Ichiro is tabbed as a type "B" free agent yet Johnny Damon is a type "A" free agent.
No offense to Damon lovers but Ichiro is a superstar and Damon is a rock solid outfielder.
Just like Bud Selig it just doesn't make any sense to me.
Posted by: Hellion | October 06, 2009 at 09:11 AM
Just like the BCS, it doesn't make any sense.
Posted by: Hellion | October 06, 2009 at 09:13 AM
I'll take Howard's 93 HRs, 287 RBIs and 210 runs over Bradley's 34 HRs, 117 RBIs and 139 runs. Howard plays every game and Bradley is lucky if he plays 120 games a year. This rating system is basically inane.
Posted by: twitter.com/huskerwho | October 06, 2009 at 09:22 AM
Okay, everybody, we get it: the Elias Rankings are illogical and inconsistent.
The system sucks at every level, personally I think that free agent compensation should be scrapped. It's pathetic that in this day and age of modern statistical analysis, MLB can use such a horrid system to evaluate players for free agent compensation.
Posted by: scribbletone | October 06, 2009 at 09:48 AM
"No offense to Damon lovers but Ichiro is a superstar and Damon is a rock solid outfielder."
Is this the same Damon who has been losing more and more balls in the air the past few years and still can't throw? Losing balls in flight due to health or not, his days as "rock solid" in the OF were done a few years back.
Posted by: johns | October 06, 2009 at 10:02 AM
Eddie - thanks for the comments and your hard work/research in putting this together. It is absolutely awesome.
I'm just hoping that Figgins somehow crawls into the Type A area. He is just below Placido.
Posted by: bjsguess | October 06, 2009 at 10:18 AM
The Dodgers have 2 Type-A free agents (Hudson and Wolf) and 4 Type-B's (Belliard, Padilla, Mota, and Ohman). Most will not be resigned (I feel Hudson is the most likely to be brought back) so Logan White should have a good number of picks to replenish the farm.
Posted by: cutmeibleedblue | October 06, 2009 at 04:58 PM
I no rocket scientist, but how is Milton Bradley rated higher than Ryan Howard?
Posted by: Bill | October 06, 2009 at 05:55 AM
not gonna lie, just laughed out loud
Posted by: metsfan23 | October 06, 2009 at 05:36 PM
Cameron is better than pretty much all of the type B OF in the NL and they have him listed next to Fernando Tatis.
Any idea when they are going to update that absolutely terrible ranking system they use? At the very least rank the CF separately or something since they are more valuable than say a 1B with the same offensive stats.
Posted by: Ender | October 06, 2009 at 06:13 PM