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« Hunter Interested In Nationals, Braves | Main | Cashman Takes Firm Stance On A-Rod »
Stats Used For Elias Type A/Type B Free Agent Rankings
In a November '06 blog entry, ESPN's Keith Law revealed a lot of good info about how Elias determines whether a free agent is Type A, Type B, or neither.
Keith was kind enough to reveal some additional info to me. This will help us immensely in trying to guess types before they come out. Everyone thank him and read his stuff at ESPN.
First let's start with the positions Elias uses. All players (not just free agents) are put into one of five groups as seen below. Position is designated as the position at which the player appeared the most over the last two seasons.
- Group 1: first basemen, outfielders, and designated hitters
- Group 2: second basemen, third basemen, and shortstops
- Group 3: catchers
- Group 4: starters
- Group 5: relievers
Here are the stat categories used for each of the five position groups.
- 1B/OF/DH: PA, AVG, OBP, HR, RBI
- 2B/3B/SS: PA, AVG, OBP, HR, RBI, Fielding percentage, Total chances at designated position
- C: PA, AVG, OBP, HR, RBI, Fielding percentage, Assists
- SP: Total games (total starts + 0.5 * total relief appearances), IP, Wins, W-L Percentage, ERA, Strikeouts
- RP: Total games (total relief appearances + 2 * total starts), IP (weighted slightly less than other categories), Wins + Saves, IP/H ratio, K/BB, ERA
That is our starting point; I need to somehow get all players into the right position groups while listing all the appropriate stats for the 2006-07 seasons. Then we can worry about adjusting for time spent on the DL and normalizing it to make 100 the top score for each position. If anyone has all of this data in a spreadsheet and wants to help, drop me a line.
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I'll tell you how much of a dork I am... I actually named one of my sons Elias.
Wow, that's a sign that I need a new hobby.
Posted by: IowaCubs | October 18, 2007 at 11:03 AM
I'm pretty sure the stats are judged over a 3 year span. Here is where you can find the player percentage ranks for 05-06. http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/2006-10-31-elias-rankings.htm#al
This can give you a rough idea of where a player may land. Give or take a few % points for good/bad season this year. But I guess if you want a difinative list, then this would be useless as you would have to go back and log every players stats for the past 3 years. By the time someone does that Elias should already have released the official list.
Posted by: spieldogg | October 18, 2007 at 11:36 AM
Well IowaCubs, I'll just take it that your son is named after the prophet Elijah/Elias. (http://goarch.org/en/chapel/saints.asp?contentid=135)
As for the Sports Bureau's rating system, it does seem extremely archaic. However, that makes it very easy to simulate. I don't have Insider access- is this rating system something that has been intimated based on regression analysis or does Elias make its criteria public?
Posted by: John Peterson | October 18, 2007 at 11:47 AM
Law's article specifically says it's two seasons, it might have been three in the past.
If someone had the data and some mild Excel skills I think you could approximate the list in a few hours. You don't have to log stats...they are publicly available.
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | October 18, 2007 at 11:48 AM
Elias doesn't make it public, but you don't need to do a regression because the info is above in the post. Law hooked us up.
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | October 18, 2007 at 11:50 AM
I see... so is each stat category weighted equally?
Posted by: John Peterson | October 18, 2007 at 11:57 AM
As far as I know, except for the IP by relievers as noted. I don't know the weighting of it though. Maybe 15% instead of 16.6?
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | October 18, 2007 at 11:59 AM
Is Eric Gagne still a type A free agent? I remember that one of the sticking points in the trade was Epstien was promised that Gagne was a type A.
Posted by: themfightnwords | October 18, 2007 at 02:18 PM
I could see his awful Red Sox stint messing up his ratios enough to knock him into Type B...
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | October 18, 2007 at 03:34 PM
Spoke to Law on whether option guys like Jose Guillen, Adam Dunn, or Tom Glavine could be offered arbitration and consequently net draft picks as Type As or Bs. He said yes.
He added that Japanese FAs have gotten "no arbitration" clauses, so an Iguchi would not net draft picks.
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | October 18, 2007 at 03:36 PM
The Mets could have as many as five Type A free agents: Glavine, Castillo, Lo Duca, Green and Alou. Of course they'll likely pick up Alou's option, and I wonders if they'll offer Green arbitration, since he might accept. The others, though, they'd be stupid to re-sign, since they are replaceable.
If you doubt that they would be Type As, consider that David Dellucci, Kevin Millar, Luis Gonzalez, Dave Roberts, Frank Catalanotto and Bengie Molina were all Type As last year.
Posted by: John Peterson | October 18, 2007 at 04:04 PM
What happens if a team signs more than one Type A? Who gets their first (or second) round draft pick?
Posted by: John Peterson | October 18, 2007 at 04:13 PM
John: its my understanding that the pick gets exchanged for the higher ranked player. This brings up a whole new set of intricacy if your talking about players in different categories, but hey, that's what Elias is here for.
It looks like I was right about Glavine. He's right on the cuttoff for Type A (17th out of 103 SP for 2005-2006 and he probably stayed in the same neighborhood since he did log 200 IP with an ERA a bit better than average), and will probably land barely on the Type A side.
Posted by: MEddler | October 18, 2007 at 06:06 PM
John: Not so sure that the Mets have five Type A's or that its relevant.
Green probably won't be in that category, especially since it was reduced to top 20%. If he was, no one would sign him before the New Year anyway. LoDuca's probably a Type A, but so are most other FA catchers the Mets might get anyway, so unless they trade, go internal (Castro), or go marginal FA they could only stand to lose a pick with the Catcher situation depending on where LoDuca winds up. Alou has said that if his option isn't exercised he's likely to retire, so thats irrelevant. Besides, why wouldn't his option be exercised?
Castillo could net them another pick or two though depending on where he winds up. He's probably like Glavine right on the cutoff. However, considering he seems to want to stay, I have a feeling he'll be retained, even if it may not be the best decision by the front office, which is debatable.
So that leaves Glavine, who in all likelyhood will be a Type A, but who also may just retire or wait until January for an offer from the Braves. The Mets should probably offer him arbitration if they can to ensure they get the pick if he goes elsewhere, but its very much up in the air.
The good news is there aren't really any Type A FA at all that the Mets should have any interest in, meaning they should get to keep their first round pick this season. I suspect the Mets try to fill most of their holes internally. The only Type A FA the Mets might consider would be an OF like Tori Hunter or Bobby Abreu or a Catcher like Jorge Posada or Michael Barrett.
Posted by: MEddler | October 18, 2007 at 06:17 PM
Just read Tim's comment about it being two years this time around. That should leave Glavine right on the cutoff. 2005 and 2006 were both pretty decent statistical seasons for him, but now that 2007 will be weighted for 50% and not 33.3% its tough to predict.
Posted by: MEddler | October 18, 2007 at 06:22 PM
Are postseason numbers included in players' FA rankings?
Also, is the 2008 FA class rankings decided by the 2005-6 seasons, or the 2006-7 seasons?
Posted by: metafrantic | October 19, 2007 at 11:38 AM