Discussion: Phillies And Roy Halladay

Here we go again.

Drabek/Happ/Taylor/a 4th player could work, but who knows if this is just smoke this time around?

No!!!!!!!
The mets can't afford to let the phils do that.

I wish the Braves could get him, but they have absolutely NO need for him. They definitely have the prospects.

Well if the Phillies can't beat the Yankees might as well join them in the way they handle the offseason...you know how the old saying goes

The Phillies would have to realise that they need to improve because the Mets will probably spend up big, the Marlins play well and the Braves are 1-2 hitters away from being really competitive (when Derek Lowe is your worst starting pitcher thats a great rotation).

That being said, no way can the Phillies trade for Halladay now. This is the same with the Red Sox and Gonzalez. Interest at the deadline does not mean interest now. Red Sox got Martinez who is going to need to place 1st and the Phillies got Lee.

I can't see how the Phillies can extend Lee (which they need to) and Halladay while keeping their other pitching and hitting. So it may be a 1 year rental at a HUGE price, even if it comes down.

They may be into winning now but I bet you they are also into winning for many more years and their prospects would be a big part of that.

OK, before the ridiculos proposals start coming... remember that a couple good months by Happ doesnt mean he has become David Price or Clayton Kershaw. He is still a potential #3 guy, nothing more.

J.A. Happ is the luckiest pitcher in baseball this year.

I agree with DodgerJulio, Tommy Hanson is gonna rip his scrawny little @$$ to pieces in ROTY voting

I think this potential move comes down to the Phillies evaluations of Drabek and Hamels. If they think that Drabek will be better than Hamels or if they don't think Hamels has "it" or the third pitch, I could see them making the move. Hamels is on a three year deal to avoid arbitration, which could potentially appeal to Toronto. But I don't see the Phillies trading Drabek unless they feel Drabek isn't a number one or if they think Hamels will go back to his form. There are so many different variables: Drabek's potential, Happ's ceiling, Hamels poor season.

Hamels isn't some scrub all of a sudden, either. He pitched with some bad BABIP of his own after a huge increase in innings. The third pitch things needs some help, sure, but he's not getting traded this year.

Drabek, Taylor and either Happ or Brown gets it done.

Both teams win hard with the deal, Phily's rotation goes from good to ridiculously good, and they clean out the farm but getting the WS again will make it worth it. Toronto gets an A-grade prospect and 2 low B ones.

Toronto needs to get rid of Wells before Halladay IMO. Zito for Wells who says no? And then the Jays get a solid #4 instead of a CF. Giants figure Wells will put up better numbers in the NL and they get an OF.

Cole Hamels: 3.72 FIP 4.32 ERA
JA Happ: 4.33 FIP 2.93 ERA

A fine example of "unlucky/lucky" if there ever was one.

They weren't trading Brown and Drabek in July when they could've had a year and a half of Halladay instead of a year. So why exactly would they be trading them now? The Phillies package would probably end at Happ, Taylor, and Gose, maybe somebody else thrown in like Kyle Kendrick or Andrew Carpenter, somebody who would be a cheap ML-ready starter.

Is that enough to get it done? Who knows?

The Phillies MUST do something like this to keep up with the Braves. Everyone knows that the Braves are essentially one slugger away from seriously contending.

The whole first half of last year was terrible with Frenchy, Schafer and Kelly Johnson in the lineup. Next year those players will nto be in the opening day lineup. Frank Wren has shown that he has the balls to make some serious moves to make his club better and the Phllies Front Office knows this.

People are really sleeping on the Braves.

Posted by: drumzalicious | November 09, 2009 at 10:53 PM

Are you serious? The Phillies must do something to keep up with the Braves? Try the other way around. If the Phillies don't get Halladay they will significantly upgrade thirdbase and add a setup guy to step in for Lidge.

Right, the National League Champions need to acquire one of the best pitchers in baseball to keep up with the team that finished in third place in their division that currently doesn't have a closer or setup man.

Are you serious? The Phillies must do something to keep up with the Braves? Try the other way around. If the Phillies don't get Halladay they will significantly upgrade thirdbase and add a setup guy to step in for Lidge.

Posted by: Chris | November 09, 2009 at 10:58 PM

Very serious. Look at the reason the Braves struggled this year. It was because of their offense and not having that bat in between chipper and mccann. If Frank Wren gets that bat and a closer we will be set

i dont see why the Jays would not rather have a combo of solid players that can help them now AND a good prospect or two.

I think the best deal for the Jays would be:
JA Happ, Jayson Werth, and one of Domonic Brown, Kyle Drabek, Anthony Gose.

The Blue Jays trading for Werth wouldn't make any sense at all, since he's a free agent after this year too. And since no matter what the Blue Jays do this offseason they are no better than third in the division, they're going for prospects.

FORGET HAPP

Anthopolous NOT Riccardi here.
Riccardi was the one insisting on Happ - this is relatively well known to most baseball outlets.

Dominic Brown as the centerpiece of any deal is not unrealistic and should be the starting point of Halladay talks if they resume since Rios has departed.

if Colletti doesn't make a serious run at Halladay and he ends up in the NL I'm going to be pissed.

truth be told i'd be pissed if he ended up anywhere but LA or Toronto, but specifically if Colletti doesn't at least try and pick him up.

Posted by: ThinkBlue | November 09, 2009 at 10:10 PM"

I wouldn't be mad at all. As soon as everyone understands the importance of the farm system and signing the kids to deals this year, the better we all will be.

No way do the Dodgers sign him after the season, he walks. The monster amount of prospects that it took to get him are wasted. Or it could be worse, Bills and some prospects are sitting in Toronto while we get a compensation pick.

If Cole Hamels is traded for Roy Halladay, Ruben Amaro will be driven out of town by pitchfork and torch.

I can't speak for others but I'm not shocked that Dodger fans don't want a deal like that done.

but how many playoff games has he started? Yeah...

Posted by: Agent | November 09, 2009 at 11:57 PM

Well, to be fair to the Doc, he has played in AL East, considered by many as the toughest division to pitch in especially when you aren't part of the Yanks or Red Sox...yet he has put up some of the best numbers in the decade while playing on a sub par team

but how many playoff games has he started? Yeah...

Posted by: Agent | November 09, 2009 at 11:57 PM

Well, to be fair to the Doc, he has played in AL East, considered by many as the toughest division to pitch in especially when you aren't part of the Yanks or Red Sox...yet he has put up some of the best numbers in the decade while playing on a sub par team

Posted by: humannature | November 10, 2009 at 12:12 AM"

How many did Lee start until this year?

Roy Halladay might be the best "pitcher" in the game.

I agree with not trading Werth and I also agree with not trading Drabek. I think a good trade would be Brown, Happ , D'Arnaud, May and PTBNL. I would make that PTBNL - Jarred Cosart, I think he will be a worthwhile pick and move well through the system.

I really think that they will bring in Drabek next year either after ST or in May after so his arb years start later. He would be a 5th starter only because of Lee, Hamels, Halladay and Blanton in front of him, not because of his stuff.

The truth has to be an extension for Lee and Halladay before any of this will ever happen.

6 yrs/ 116 for Lee
5 yrs/ 95 for Halladay

I also feel they will never sell HIGHER on Werth, anyone think the Braves could use a power RH hitting OFer and actually provide some players for him?

Any team trading for Halliday would have to get an extension for any of this to work. It doesn't matter what kind of package the Phils offer for Halliday it all boils down to what team Doc wants to pitch for.

The Phils can address their needs thru FA.
1) 3B
2) RP
3) SP
They need to add a solid RH hitter in the middle of the lineup.
Lee,Hamels,Happ,Blanton is decent and maybe signing Harden with Drabek in the wings.
Valverde and Gonzalez would be worthwhile FA signings.
Signing FA Beltre,Harden,Valverde and Gonzalez would cost them around 22 mil per.

People, if the Phillies were willing to trade Domonic Brown or Kyle Drabek, we wouldn't be talking about trading for Roy Halladay, we'd be talking about the possibility of him re-signing with the Phillies, because he would have been traded in July.

They weren't willing to trade them then, and they certainly aren't going to trade them now, which is why I don't think Halladay is going to be a Phillie, at least not this year.

"J.A. Happ is the luckiest pitcher in baseball this year."

Happ was 12-4 with a 2.93 ERA in 166 innings pitched. kershaw had a lower era in more innings pitched, so im not takin anything away from him...but how would u say he's lucky? run support? look i agree, as a phils fan, im not gonna get too excited about him till he gets another year under his belt--but at the same time the phils have such a young core group of rollins, utley, howard that "winning NOW" ie getting roy halladay--isnt as pressing for the phils as it is for other teams. the phils will contend in the NL with or without roy halladay.

beltre is gonna be the big offseason move this year. watch. lets go phils!

If Roy Halladay pitched a full season in the NL, with the Phillies offence he could very well win 25 games. As a Jays fan I'm going to miss him, the most consistent, reliable guy you could ask for. He seems to have a knack for showing up to big games (as big as they got in Toronto). As a fan if he is traded I would start with your #1 prospect and work from there. It's worth it.

It's funny how some people think the price is going to go up here... The Jays still face the same problem they had last time. They can't sell to their fans the idea of trading to the red sox or the yankees.

For a one year rental the offer from any team will be along the lines of Happ (major league ready pitching), Taylor or Brown (Prized outfield prospect), and maybe some other pitching prospect, but certainly not your best prospect.

The Jays missed their chance to get a huge haul for Halladay at the deadline. Now that's the best they'll get from anyone.

"the phils have such a young core group of rollins, utley, howard"

Rollins=30 (31 in 17 days)
Howard=29 (30 in 9 days)
Utley 30 (31 in December)

Not exactly "Young" as you implied.

For anyone who thinks that Hamels is even being considered

sorry for the previous post accidently hit enter.

Now for anyone who thinks Hamels is being trzded is plain nuts you dont trade 25 year old lefties that are as quality as Hamels. Common now. Werth is to much a part of this team to be traded as well. If any out feilder were to be trade would be victorino. with all that said, why are we revisiting this bs again. nothing will be done. if doc goes anywhere it would be the dodgers but with the trades of the past deadlines do they really want to make their system that barron? even if they get him could they still beat the phils, i dont think so. why make the deal than.

Now, for the phils to get Halladay does make sense for the simple fact that just getting the WS is not good. Getting Halladay puts them in place to have a very good chance of winning the ws. you only get Halladay if the price is right ie not giving up your top 3 propects.

Now what i think the phils are gonna do is pass on him intially and wait til the deadline to see if he is available. they might sign soriano from the braves, go out and get figgins, and please for the love of god get a bench. either way right now they are still the best team in the division and NL

Halladay
Lee
Hamels

In a short series that's dominant.

I'd only want a trade for the Doc if we were able to sign an extension, similar to the Santana deal. Then, I think it would be worth trading for him. I'd say trade Victorino, Happ and 2 other lower prospects and we can call it a deal. But really, I'd rather wait a year, save the farm and sign him next year.

Happ was 12-4 with a 2.93 ERA in 166 innings pitched. kershaw had a lower era in more innings pitched, so im not takin anything away from him...but how would u say he's lucky? run support? look i agree, as a phils fan, im not gonna get too excited about him till he gets another year under his belt--but at the same time the phils have such a young core group of rollins, utley, howard that "winning NOW" ie getting roy halladay--isnt as pressing for the phils as it is for other teams. the phils will contend in the NL with or without roy halladay."

His LOB% and BABIP against(i forgot the true name of the stat...). He was extremley lucky, although not many people will look at the advanced stats and just assume he was great.

Like many have said, he had a great year, but it looks better than it was because of underlying stats...

Doc is one of the best pitchers in the game. Its going to take a top package centered around Drabek and others to get him.

You can't look at him as strictly a 1 year rental, its either he'll sign an extension and you'll have him probably for the rest of his career or you get him for 1 year plus 2 picks, 2 fairly high picks.

Baseball drafts are far from anything guaranteed but why would the Jays settle for lesser prospects when they could just hold onto Halladay and get a shot at drafting 2 blue-chip prospects? It isn't a money thing, Halladay's contract is very reasonable and likely there would be a hit at the gate this year with a trade.

Length of contract. Work on extending Lee. I honestly do not know what that guy is going to command in salary. Obviously more than Burnett's 5/82.5. Just work to extend Lee. No trade for Halladay. Save the farm and buy arms in the FA in 2011. Plenty of options to fall back on if you can't land Halladay.

Halladay for 5/95? Laughing. Since NYY and BOS will be knee deep in the mix, go ahead and start thinking somethin along the lines of 6/125 starting for the best pitcher in the game. Money well spent in my opinion even if he is 34 at FA. Surround him with an offense, and that guy will be a winning machine for the rest of his career.

Mock that contract proposal all you want, but wait and see. If BOS can't come to terms with Beckett, you can bet Halladay's price absolutely skyrockets.

"The Phillies could decide Victorino is part of their future in center, and package Brown with a JA Happ and a Kyle Kendrick and that would be enough for a year of Doc at this point. 2 MLB ready starters and an elite prospect."

That has to be, without a doubt, the most ridiculous thing I've read around here in while--all the more because it was written in earnestness and not the faux,

"OMG, CASHMAN BETTER SIGN HOLLIDAY/LACKEY N TRADE FOR PAPELBON OR HE IS DA SUXORS1!@!!"

type thing.

Why? Because there is no way in this reality that the Jays would base a trade for Halladay--even 1 year of him--on one prospect, 1 mid-rotation type starter, and a fringey MLB arm at best in Kyle Kendrick. Not a chance, especially when the Jays can hold onto Halladay, offer him arbitration after 2010, and already have what would be in all likelihood 2 better prospects than Brown and Happ(or at least equal).

No soup for you.

Next! ;)

StarryEyed: With all due respect, if you think you're going to get a prospect better or even equal to Brown out of your run-of-the-mill 1st-rd pick, you're insane.

The Jays would be getting a 1st-rd pick from most likely one of the major teams (NYY, BOS etc etc) so it's going to be LOW 1st. Brown is a top-25 prospect in all of baseball.

Muggi:
"With all due respect, if you think you're going to get a prospect better or even equal to Brown out of your run-of-the-mill 1st-rd pick, you're insane.

The Jays would be getting a 1st-rd pick from most likely one of the major teams (NYY, BOS etc etc) so it's going to be LOW 1st. Brown is a top-25 prospect in all of baseball."

Wasn't Brown drafted in the 20th round? and now 3 years later is a top 25 prospect. Its insane to think the Jays could find an equal or better player with 2 picks within the 25-35 range? I'm not debating how valuable of a prospect Brown may be. But to say its insane the Jays couldn't find someone equal to him with a 1st round pick (and 1 compensatory) when the Phillies found him with a 20th is RIDICULOUS

It smells of jockeying for position and raising the ante...

At this point, outside of the Cardinals keeping their current core together, getting a legit lefty slugger and merely showing up in the playoffs, there isn't a team in the NL that can compete with the Phillies...

However, the Phils can't start letting teams of the likes of the Mets, Dodgers, or even the Yankees or Red Sox make a play for Halladay...

The Phils are the only team in the NL that can compete with the likes of the ALs elite... Keeping the cost high for NL teams and keeping him out of the hands of the ALs elite is imparitive...

Rumors are that a trade of hamels for halladay are in the mix. Makes sense, Hamels has been a goon for the last 2 years

Rumors are that a trade of hamels for halladay are in the mix. Makes sense, Hamels has been a goon for the last 2 years

Did you watch the 2008 season or playoffs? he is the reason why the phillies won the 2008 world series. if he gets his head on straight and realises that he actually needs to work hard because the league adjusted to him he will be fine. it is not big if. he has been an above average pitcher since coming into the league. and no trading him for halladay makes no sense for the phillies. yes halladay is better however, there are not many number 2 in the league better Hamels. remember when Halladay got sent back to the minors i am sure everyone wrote him off to. i am just sick of everyone saying that hamels is a bad pitcher and he is done. yes i would love to acquire halladay but not at the price of hamels just not happening so all of these so called reports are pure bullshit.

"StarryEyed: With all due respect, if you think you're going to get a prospect better or even equal to Brown out of your run-of-the-mill 1st-rd pick, you're insane."

I'll let bwilly's reply serve as mine, but I'll also say this--there's really no certainty in correlating draft position with certainty of future MLB potential/ability to get into the majors and be productive/whatever you want to call it.

But, I think your later assertion of "more 1st rounders fail than succeed" could be applied to any round(more players in the 20th round fail than they succeed), and the chances of success for a player taken in any round decrease the farther you go from the 1st round, I'm sure.

"The Jays would be getting a 1st-rd pick from most likely one of the major teams (NYY, BOS etc etc) so it's going to be LOW 1st. Brown is a top-25 prospect in all of baseball."

Well...

1. Calling him a top-25 prospect depends on who you talk to, as I don't think all of the ranking systems(BA, BP, Keith Law, Project Prospect, Minor League Ball) have him in the top-25. Call him a top-50 prospect and I'll be fine with that.

2. Having said that, Brown struggled once he was promoted to AA Reading this year. He struck out more, walked less, and has struggled a bit with his defense. He's only 20, so he'll probably start 2010 at AA and have time to adapt, but I think I'd like to see him tear up AA before calling him "elite"--but that's a matter of opinion.

StarryEyed:

Fair enough.

I'd like to add though...his "struggles" in AA were still good enough for an .800 OPS :)

yea, the phillies will get him along with king felix and sandy koufax... I mean c'mon ppl I would like a bently but doesn't mean that makes sense for my wallet. The Phillies would more likely go after a Lackey then Roy because they would not have to give up the farm and then possibly in a year lose him because he likes the small town life. Also the Phillies are great and all but how much money do they have and Lee will command over 20 million on the market. So pay Lee 22 million and Halladay will want 24, plus Howard's 15 million + Lidge's 12 + Utley's 11 and Rollins 8.5 = 92.5 not adding Matt Holliday, Lackey, Bay and Damon to be a backup to Werth... hell while we are at it Pujols (via trade) to spot start at 1st and 3rd... i know they made the series back to back but they do not have a NY on their caps.

Posted by: nathan | November 09, 2009 at 10:58 PM

I dont think you need to worry about Halladay leaving because he likes the "small town life". Toronto is 3.5 times larger Philadelphia ( 5.5 million in Toronto 1.5 million in Philly as stated by http://www.mongabay.com/igapo/North_American_cities.htm