Olney On Non-Tenders

I've heard this suggestion about Hardy before. I just don't see him having that little value that he would be non-tendered. Too many teams are in need of a SS (4-6 mill is high but not ridiculous). Jenks on the otherhand I could see non-tendered.

Why don't the Brewers just keep Hardy and start the season as him as the starter. Let him build up some value and then trade in him within a month and install Alcides Escobar as the starter.

Agreed, Kinsm. Even getting a low-level warm body back for Hardy would be better than non-tendering him.

Still, I just can't imagine them not getting one bite simply because teams know that if he's non-tendered he could come cheaper.

Hardy actually works well as an example of the type of scenario Olney suggested, in which large market teams can gamble on a high-upside player by giving up mediocre prospects.

However, if they really are unable to strike up a deal, then I could see it as a possibility.

Hey Steve, the link is broken. There's two http:// in the code.

why is there such intrest in jj hardy? he had a couple decent seasons 07 and 08. he struggled this year and now teams want to trade prospects for him? if i were a team in need of a shortstop id much rather try to sign someone like orlando cabrera

Posted by: Timmy B | November 01, 2009 at 03:46 PM

A couple decent seasons? Try near all star level seasons. People forget that Hardy is a top notch fielder at SS who averaged roughly an .800 OPS with 25 HR's per season at a traditionally weak hitting position. That is incredibly valuable

hardys seasons were nowhere near allstar seasons. i recall in 07 that he was the best offensive shortstop or close to it for the first 2 months of the season. but then he slumped the rest of the year and had an average statistical season. the only value he brings is power at a weak position and defense. he is nowhere near reyes escobar jeter hanley ramirez rollins tulowitzki

@chisox33, I'm a sox fan but the only way the rays do that deal is if the sox take on Jenks's pay for 2010. The post just mentions how they think these players will be overpaid. Why in the world would the Rays take on an overpayed Bobby Jenks? When their goal would be to shed payroll.

Hardy would be a good pick up for the Sox if he becomes available... but I wouldn't trade anything for him.

Crawford will surely have his $ 10 million option picked up, even if the Rays intend to trade him.
I would think that some club would want Hardy at $ 5 mil plus per season. The Tigers should go after him. He fits the description of ABE (anyone but Everett). But if the Brewers want top prospects for a guy that wasn't worth his contract last year, they want to rethink that. You can have Jeremy Bonderman, Nate Robertson, Dontrelle Willis, Alfredo Figaro, Armando Galarraga, or Zach Miner for Hardy.
Iwamura is another in that class. I would think he's just about worth his 4.25 mil option to a team like the Dodgers.
Jenks is probably a better closer than most on the free agent market, and he'd cost a little bit less than most of them.
So, an executive thinks that the arbitration system is "outdated". Go figure! Even though only 3 of 111 cases actually went to a hearing, and all the rest were settled! How about let's just make players free agents after three years? OH! But executives think that the free market system is outdated also. That's why they were found liable for collusion in a Court of law!
I still say that there's more than just the economy keeping salaries down. It's not like they're all on the phone with each other colluding to not pay free agents, but there aren't any good ol fashioned bidding wars for free agents any more. The Yankees pick what they want, over pay them, and the other clubs divvy up the rest without a bidding war.

ChiSox - you think the Rays would rather pay Jenks 7 than Crawford 10?

That is such a terrible deal. There are truckloads of young good arms that could close for the Rays at minimum who the Rays could get for Crawford.

I'd really like to see Hardy land in Cincinnati. The Reds even match up fairly well in trade since they have some decent pitching prospects in their system.

Hardy is a fantastic reclamation project (and I use that term with my tongue in my cheek, since he's only one season removed from putting up two extremely valuable seasons as an .800 OPS shortstop with fantastic defense.

Unfortunately, those fellas grow on trees, so I expect to see him non-tendered and offered a one-year incentive-laden deal with the Newark Bears...

Tough to see the Brewers non-tendering Hardy. He's young and obviously has talent. Someone will give up something descent for him making it a better deal for them than just removing his salary. Jenks I could see being non-tendered since there are so many closers available and he's not likely to be worth what he's going to get paid (he is a closer after all). He's going to disappoint some other team besides the Sox next year. I can see a small market team who's not going to contend anyway that has money to spend waiting until right before spring training to overpay Jenks with the thought of dealing him before the deadline, the Jenks gets hurt and it all goes south. Sounds far fetched sure but that just seems plausible for some reason, he's a White Sox, he's a closer, he's going to screw over some unsuspecting, unfortunate team.

Yeah to that White Sox fan who thinks Bobby Jenks could land Carl Crawford...you must have some fantastic drugs

Hardy has to get tendered, he is really worth the 4.5M gamble on turning his bad season around and worth a B prospect even if they decide to move him, and worth holding onto if they can't get that in a swap.

Only foolish tightfisted/cheap teams like the Rays and Fish would even think of non tendering someone like Hardy. Those are the kind of teams that have 1 good year, then return to mediocre for decades.

"I wouldn't mind seeing the Mets take a shot on Jenks. He would replace JJ Putz both in role and in salary, and if he is a non-tender candidate you would think it would be do-able for low level prospects, or even fringe major leaguers."

Bobby Jenks for Angel Pagan and Francisco Pena?

DaveinEG, why, oh why, would the Brewers even think of non-tendering Dave Bush? He has been a quality pitcher for this team, and the last thing we can afford to do is non-tender a quality pitcher. Why is everyone always talking about getting rid of Dave Bush? What, did he kick your puppy? He's done nothing to deserve being cut or non-tendered.

Anyway, as for J.J. Hardy, he will NOT be non-tendered. He WILL be traded. I still think that the Brewers and Orioles could make a trade. Think about it, they need a stop-gap at 3rd base and a young shortstop, and we can provide them with that. J.J. Hardy and Mat Gamel for something like Brad Bergesen and Radhames Liz.

A trade with the BoSox could happen, but I really am starting to think it won't. They don't seem like they would be willing to give up what the Brewers would be asking.

A trade with the Twins could work. Hardy for Liriano straight up seems fair for both sides, in my opinion.

"A trade with the Twins could work. Hardy for Liriano straight up seems fair for both sides, in my opinion"

The Brewers are trying to IMPROVE their starting rotation and a guy who threw 5.80 era will not do it.

In all likelihood, the Brewers will package Hardy with Gamel to trade for a #3 or a young #4 then add another starter in free agency.

"hardys seasons were nowhere near allstar seasons."

He made the all-star team in 07. You are an idiot!

DaveinEG
Bush is only a good non tender candidate if they feel he's not going to be healthy. When healthy, Bush is a solid #3 starter. He had no history of injury until Hanley Ramirez scorched a liner of his pitching elbow. It's a freak injury that very well could have ruined Cain's an Greinke's seasons as well.

Sage
If the Brewers trade Hardy to Baltimore they should look to get Guthrie back. Both guys were very good in 2007-2008, but had disappointing seasons in 2009. That's the type of deal they're going to need to get their bang for their buck (Hardy). Liriano is another good suggestion as similar trade for Hardy.