Houston’s Compensation For Losing Valverde

Hundreds of players remain on the open market, but only one of the unsigned Type A free agents received an offer of arbitration. Now that players like Jason Bay and Matt Holliday have signed, just Jose Valverde remains. 

Valverde's Type A status matters to the teams interested in him. After all, they have to give up a top pick to sign him. It also matters to the Astros, who will receive two top picks in next year's draft unless they bring Valverde back (just one of those picks will come from the team that signs him). So if you're an Astros fan, where do you want Valverde to sign? The short answer is Detroit. But here's a detailed breakdown of what picks the Astros stand to gain, depending on their old closer's new address. Thanks to River Ave. Blues for their updated 2010 draft order.
  • 19th – The Tigers would have to give their first rounder up, but they've reportedly made an offer.
  • 23rd – The Marlins consider Valverde too pricey right now. 
  • 49th - The Pirates have some interest, but don't like Valverde's asking price of $8MM per year.
  • 53rd – The D'Backs, who are also interested, have their first round pick protected.
  • 57th – The A's have a protected first rounder, but they may stick with 2009 Rookie of the Year Andrew Bailey.
  • 58th – We haven't heard of definitive interest from the Blue Jays.   
  • The Phillies (27th), Yankees (32nd) and Nats (48th) would all surrender top-50 picks to sign Valverde, though those clubs don't appear to be likely destinations.
  • The Red Sox haven't been connected to him either, and they'd rather avoid the luxury tax, but here's something to consider: they'd only have to give up their 107th overall pick to add the reliever. Valverde's ranked higher than John Lackey and Marco Scutaro, so the Astros get the 29th pick (now held by the Angels) if their former closer signs with the Red Sox. The Blue Jays and Angels are surely hoping to avoid this possibility because it would strengthen their rival's bullpen and diminish the value of their compensation picks.
  • Confused? Check out our free agent compensation primer. 

29 Responses to Houston’s Compensation For Losing Valverde Leave a Reply

  1. philz could use valverde even though they will probably sign ben sheets before him we need help in the pen

    • Ferrariman 5 years ago

      I think we can all agree just about every team in baseball could use valverde, it’s more of a question which teams are willing to give up top draft picks for him

  2. diehardmets 5 years ago

    What happens if he isnt signed to next offseason? Does Houston still get picks?

    • Alldaybaseball 5 years ago

      Some team has to sign him before June I think. It has to before before the draft in June I know.

  3. BoSoxSam 5 years ago

    well, then. If the price goes down I’d be interested in seeing him go to Boston. They could use the bullpen depth, and the 107th pick isn’t too bad to lose.

    • Ferrariman 5 years ago

      they could use the bullpen depth? what having the number one bullpen already in the AL isnt good enough? god red sox fans…

      • the red sox have a good bullpen, but after the lose of both wagner and saito, i don’t think it is the best, and an additional arm in the pen for a 107th pick isn’t a bad deal.

      • BoSoxSam 5 years ago

        Huh, really? You sound like you like the Sox more than I do! 😛 I had no idea they were the #1 bullpen in the AL. Bard is strong, but still a rookie. Okajima is dependable but numbers have worsened slightly each year. Papelbon lost his splitter, Delcarmen fell apart, and I can’t think of any long reliever. Boof might be that, but he’s a big question mark. I dunno, maybe I’m just over-critical, but last year I felt worried every time the bullpen was in charge..

        • BoSoxSam 5 years ago

          oh and of course, if valverde was signed he’d also have to be willing to be in a non-closer role (and at a lot less than he’s asking for), so I’m guessing it won’t happen.

          • Dustroia15 5 years ago

            I like Papelbon but I think it is in the Sox best interest to trade him. He has two expensive years of arbitration left and wants to go year to year. I don’t think $9-10M is too much for an elite closer but there are other options such as signing Valverde or moving Bard into the closer role.

            I think the Sox should move Papelbon for pieces that could be used in a trade for a big bat, sign Valverde for 2/12, sign Calero for a cheap one year deal w/incentive and option. Cash is pretty close, maybe a little lower and two bullpen spots are filled.

          • BoSoxSam 5 years ago

            Oh, I agree wholeheartedly. If pap can’t get his split back he’s much less dominating then he’s been, and right now with his value high we could trade him. However I do think that will only happen if they had all the pieces lined up to replace him (I think they think Bard needs some more time), and if they knew it would end in a big trade for AGon or someone similar.

            Although….I’m not even sure where a big bat fits right now. So no, what I would like to see is either they sign Valverde cheap if he’s willing, but even better would be if they just went after Calero as you mentioned, cheap and underrated, would fit in well, not going to be clamoring for the closing position like Valverde.

  4. Guest 5 years ago

    I think he will get signed within this week. The Blue Jays would be a great fit and they are also protected. They also have the Aroldis Chapman money left over.

    • I’ve been kicking around the idea that if the price got right it might be worth it to the Jays even though it doesn’t fit their plan for the roster because:

      *they have so MANY picks they can afford to lose one more than anyone
      *the Red Sox idea is just too perfect and that hurts them on the Scutaro pick
      *They can – if he pitches well – market Velverde in July and potentially get back players closer to the majors than the draft pick would be

      If they signed him to, for instance, a $6 million deal and dealt him in July they would have spent $4 million and a draft pick to obtain whatever the got back in a trade. It’s not completely crazy.

  5. Suzysman 5 years ago

    Not a big deal, but wouldnt all picks at #34 and below be pushed back 1 spot because of the compensation pick Houston would receive?

    I believe Valverde will be the second highest ranked Type-A to sign, which mean he comes with whatever 1st/2nd rounder plus the #34 pick

    • StrosB4Hoes 5 years ago

      I believe they would be getting the 33rd pick, not the 34th because Holliday was the only one higher than him and he got resigned by the Cards, so they aren’t getting a compensation pick that they would have received if Holliday had left.

      I’m hoping the Tigers get him so we can get a better pick. But people are right the Red Sox wouldn’t be too bad a spot for him to go, being we would get their first rounder, but would suck for the Angels. And didn’t that happen to them last year, or where they the ones that got the first rounder? Either way it would screw the Blue Jays again getting their pick pushed back (Burnett last year).

      As for the person asking about not signing until next year; the Astros will receive no compensation if he is signed after the draft, but I find it hard to believe that nobody will pick him up before the season starts. That is more the case of someone like Sheets last year (that is the only reason I know this).

      I’m just happy he is out of Houston. Nothing against the guy, but he scared the crap out of me every ninth inning and I didn’t want them to pay that type of money. At least Lyon will be able to pitch in the eighth and not complain like Valverde probably would be doing. And the closer spot is way overrated.

      • Actually it doesn’t work that way. I never realized until I saw the Jays comp pick for Burnett sliding back down the list last year (not the Yankees pick but the supplemental one).

        Based on what I saw, the supplemental round picks are NOT slotted according to the players value, but they are ordered according to the record of the teams who lost the players, just like the regular draft order is.

        That’s still good for Houston because they had the worst record among teams losing Type A players. Which is to say they will get the #33 pick if Valverde signs elsewhere.

        what I DON’T know is whether the Supplemental Picks mingle the Type A and Type B compensation according to he standings or whether they order all the type A and then go back and order the type B separately. I assume a well informed analysis of previous drafts would reveal that.

        A quick glance at last years draft gives me the impression that what I just said only applies to Type A compensation…but it was just a quick glance.

        • Suzysman 5 years ago

          Wow, so it does. And looking at the 2010 Type-B rankings, we see84-78 Rays (for Type-B Gregg Zaun)85-77 Mariners (for Type-B Adrian Beltre)86-77 Tigers (for Type-B Brandon Lyon)87-75 Rangers (for Type-B Marlon Byrd)91-71 Cardinals (for Type-B Mark DeRosa)92-70 Rockies (for Type-B Jason Marquis)86-77 Tigers (for Type-B Fernando Rodney)87-75 Rangers (for Type-B Ivan Rodriguez)Type-B seems to have the same order as Type-A. (with the order staring over after for multiple compensation picks)So yes, the Astros will receive the #33 pick for him (as long as he signs elseware) which means the initial topic needs to correct these pick numbers if he chooses these clubs49th pick from Nats 50th pick from Pirates 54th pick from D’Backs, 58th pick from A’s59th pick from BlueJays And if he signs with Boston, the following would happen#29 to Astros (plus #33)#77 to Angels for Lackey (plus #37)#108 to Jays for Scutaro (plus #34)

  6. fgsfsfbbbrd 5 years ago

    I can see a scenario like last year with Juan Cruz, with a random team swooping in and signing him, like the Royals. I could somewhat see the Orioles signing him, as they just traded away Chris Ray, and with the durability issues of Mike Gonzalez. I’d personally like to see him just go to the Tigers, since that’s his best bet to actually close out games.

  7. As an Astros fan i hope the Nationals get him then we would get the #1 overall draft pick. 😉

    • myname_989 5 years ago

      No you wouldn’t. The Nats’ #1 pick is protected. Lol. I did get the joke though. Hahaha

      • Ferrariman 5 years ago

        This sounds dumb.. But what’s the joke LOL?

  8. DickAlmighty 5 years ago

    You can take the A’s off this list. Bailey’s a stud; no need for Valverde, especially at the cost of a second-round pick.

    • vtadave 5 years ago

      Though it would be just like Billy Beane to sign the guy and then flip him at the deadline for a prospect. Still, he’d have to weigh the likelihood that said prospect would be more valuable than the 57th pick in the draft.

  9. Mitch_Cole173 5 years ago

    I’ve been thinking that for a while. Maybe a team like the Cubs would take him after losing out on Capps? Give them Pap and we get Derek Lee(LOL!)? Maybe just trade him for they’re #3 or 4 prospect, they’re #28, and they’re #31?

  10. stl_cards16 5 years ago

    This post is about Valverde… Why would any team give up something valuable for Papplebon when they could sign Valverde for cheaper? Papplebon is good, but nobody wants to pay a closer 10mil+ besides the Mets. You just wouldn’t get that much out of him

  11. COME ON DETROIT!! You know you need him and frankly I will be glad when he’s gone for more than just the picks!!

  12. DrBagelman 5 years ago

    Ah, yes, I forgot that Jose Valverde was more valuable (is that the word they use to determine the rankings?) than John Lackey. The compensation system is a great idea, but the ranking system is trash.

  13. dskirsa 5 years ago

    So the system basically penalizes the bad teams and offers an incentive to good teams with deep pockets to sign players. Awesome.

  14. dskirsa 5 years ago

    So the system basically penalizes the bad teams and offers an incentive to good teams with deep pockets to sign players. Awesome.

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