No Long-Term Offer Yet For Verlander

Tigers righty Justin Verlander told John Lowe of the Detroit Free Press he's yet to receive a long-term contract offer from the club.  Still, interest appears mutual.

Verlander would prefer to work out his 2010 salary before entering long-term discussions.  With Joe Blanton locked up, Verlander's $2.6MM gap with the Tigers is second only to Tim Lincecum's $5MM divide among those exchanging arbitration figures.  I mentioned yesterday on Twitter that I found Verlander's $9.5MM request to be high.  My comparison to Felix Hernandez's second arbitration year salary was flawed, since that wouldn't factor into an arbitration hearing.  A better match might be Andy Pettitte.  Here's how the two stack up after four seasons, keeping in mind arbitration panels focus on simple stats like wins:

  • Verlander:  840 IP, 132 GS, 65 wins, 3.92 ERA, 746 Ks
  • Pettitte: 852.6 IP, 127 GS, 67 wins, 3.75 ERA,  588 Ks

Pettitte received a 56.6% raise heading into the 1999 season.  Verlander had a better platform year, more strikeouts, and better award finishes, Pettitte the superior ERA.  Even a 70% raise would put Verlander at $6.25MM in 2010, though the Tigers would only have to convince the panel he deserves less than $8.2MM to win.

This may all be moot, as the Tigers will probably want to avoid a hearing given their desire to lock Verlander up long-term.  If they settle near the midpoint, Verlander's aggressive filing will pay off.  As for a multiyear contract, Verlander acknowledged he's "closely mirrored" to Felix, whose five-year, $78MM pact will be made official today.  Verlander does not want to negotiate during the season.


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16 Comments on "No Long-Term Offer Yet For Verlander"


ADJPB
5 years 6 months ago

What are the tigers waiting for they should lock him up.

tigers_fan10
5 years 6 months ago

i utterly and completly agree with ADJPB

tigers22
5 years 6 months ago

Also agree… I’m pretty confident it’ll happen

5 years 6 months ago

Ohhh come now tim… We all know that you can compare numbers, but you can’t compare the caliber of pitcher. Its like comparing Joel Pineiro to John Lackey… There is no comparison short of their numbers turned out even. The chance that Verlander maintains his Ace status throughout his career and especially in 2010 is almost a given, whereas Pettite was never the ace of the Yankees.

Verlander is a dominant pitcher, Pettite never has had the kind of dominance that Verlander does. This is not to say he’s not an effective pitcher. He was and still is. But the comparison really does stop at the numbers. I think a blind monkey could see that.

Verlander is also not on the same scale as Felix IMO, but he is somewhere in between the two. Also, keep in mind that inflation has quadrupled since 1999. You would have never seen a team (including the Yankees) even consider a 300 million dollar contract at the time. At that time, basketball was bigger than baseball, and Kevin Garnett and Shaq were the ones raking in the big bucks. It was really only when A-Rod went to Texas and Jeter got his 10 year 200 million contract (1999 funny enough) that the process of paying players ridiculous sums began.

I figure anywhere between 8 milliion and 10 million is a good bid for Verlander from his perspective. He chose the high end. This coming of course from a guy who agrees with Kieth Law that Lincecum let the Giants off LIGHT. He could have very easily asked for 14-16 million and if the Giants submitted 8-9 again, he would have landed it without a doubt.
Lincecum deserves to win his case. Verlander deserves to win his case although I hardly think 9.5 is “light” for Verlander. Its just about right.

5 years 6 months ago

Check that actually because pettite did dominate in the NL, but he still was behind clemens.

5 years 6 months ago

either way… you get my point. comparison stops at the numbers…. OOOO OOOO and I got one… Verlander didn’t do ROIDS. Sorry Yanks fans, you like to slip that one in on Ortiz every day on MLBTR hehe. So I gotta get my shot in 😉 I’m actually funny enough a big Andy Pettite fan though. I think many left handed pitchers (including Jon Lester) have really learned a lot from both his pitch repertoire of what works vs righties as well as his work ethic and demeanor. He’s a class act all around. No hate for Pettite from this corner.

RestoreTheRoar
5 years 6 months ago

You know…I dont think Felix really is that much better than Verlander. I live in Seattle and see 60+ games a year, and watch almost every Tiger game as well.

I think a lot of his success last year can be tied to the M’s having the #1 defense in the league. That helps a lot. if you had Beltre, Ichiro, Guitierrez running down your balls in one of the biggest pitchers parks in the league, you’d probably do better than JV who had to rely on a broken Inge, a platooning Everett/Santiago, and an aging Magglio and whoever the hell else they put in Left that day.

They are both fantastic, but I just dont agree with everyone who thinks Felix is a higher caliber pitcher. I seriously doubt he’s going to put up the same kind of numbers in 2010.

bomberj11
5 years 6 months ago

I think Verlander gets what he wants. He’s a phenomenal pitcher, and I hope he stays in a Tigers uniform forever. It’s a real treat getting to see a Tigers game and watching him pitch.

RestoreTheRoar
5 years 6 months ago

He will get a contract, Im pretty sure of it. Settle for 8-ish million this year, 4 year deal later.

5 years 6 months ago

I’d love to see pitchers’ FIP, especially when comparing stats.

5 years 6 months ago

Fine comp for a long-term deal, but his numbers couldn’t be used in an arb hearing is all I’m saying.

jeffpolut
5 years 6 months ago

Lloyd’s agent? Lloyds of London the insurance company????

Guest
5 years 6 months ago

hey there Tim. I am having some problem, when i log in this comment box doesnt apear so i am unable to post comments when i am logged in. Do you know why this is happening?

RestoreTheRoar
5 years 6 months ago

Hear me out…Im not saying he’s not as good as Verlander, or even a bit better. Im just saying he’s not MUCH better than Verlander. Ive read some articles and comments of people speaking of Felix like he is a god, or like you said “The best” in the majors. Hell no. A healthy Johan is still the best, probably followed by CC.I know Felix was 20, I was at his debut game. Ive also seen him, twice- feign injury when he was imploding early in a game. His age went hand in hand with his immaturity for the first few years. He kept gaining weight after reaching drinking age, and is known to be a huge prima donna in the clubhouse, almost as bad as Ichiro.Felix went straight to the minors, while Verlander went to college. Its not really fair to say JV wasnt as good at that age, because he wasnt under professional training since he was 17 either.If you look at Justin vs Felix’s numbers for their career (first full seasons for each were in 2006), I think you’ll find its a lot closer than you assumed. (not including their callup years of a few starts each)Season ERA: Justin was lower (mid threes) in the first two years, hit a 4+ in 2008 (when Detroit had one of the worst defenses in the league) and was back to a mid three last year. Felix hit just under 2.5 but his defense was ranked #1Complete games: Felix 7, Justin 6Shutouts: both have 3Innings Pitched: Felix 905, Justin 840. Keep in mind Felix has started 6 more games than Verlander. Give him his average of 7 innings per game, and Verlander would be on top. Justin also put in more innings each season except for 2006Hits: Felix 863, Justin 797. JV had less hits every year except 2009 (and even then, it was only 19)Runs: Felix 385, Justin 393. JV was lower in 2006, they tied in 2007, JV was higher in 2008 (poor Tiger defense), Felix was dominant in 2009 (M’s had the best D#)Earned Runs: Felix 347, Justin 366. Same with this one, JV was lower in 2006 & 2007, higher in 2008, Felix was dominant in 2009Walks: Felix 287, Justin 282. They were actually pretty even every year except 2009. JV was better by 8 batters.Strikeouts: Felix 810, Verlander 746. They were both pretty even (160-180 range) each season except 2009. Felix stepped it to 217, but Justin dominated with 269. Even more than Linecum who gets to throw to a pitcher 3x a game.WHIP: Felix 1.27, Justin 1.28Again, not saying Felix aint bad, and not even that he isnt better..he just isnt A LOT better than Verlander.

BTW I love the M’s, and I think they are the better team in 2010. Probably of the entire league.

RestoreTheRoar
5 years 6 months ago

Based on the numbers, Im sure its easy to think he will only continue to improve. Based on his work ethic (at least in his early years) a lot of Seattle fans are concerned they will fall off now that he’s locked up a bunch of money. They still have the awful taste of Silva’s contract in their mouth, who was supposed to mentor Felix. My coworkers already call Felix, “King Sandbag”- just based on his previous behavior. I do hope he keeps up the good work though. The new GM is outstanding and Seattle needs at least one world class sports team.

Good call on Halladay..he’s right up there. I read an incredible piece on CC last year that brought some of his numbers to light compared to the rest of the MLB and they stuck in my mind. And after watching CC and Johan in the central for so many years, Im probably biased towards them.

The Lincecum motion is an oft-used debate in Seattle, as he was a UoWashington star. The M’s passed him over in the draft for Brandon Morrow because they (the previous front office at least) felt the mechanics would also result in injury and a short career. You have to wonder though..what if Seattle had Lincecum, Felix, and Cliff Lee this season. Holy crap, they would be unstoppable.

And strapped for cash :)

RestoreTheRoar
5 years 6 months ago

LOL, Silva ate his way back to the minor leagues. He was a decent pitcher for the twins, but I think everyone was shocked Balvasi gave him soooooo much money. He was making more than anyone on the team once Sexson left (pre new Ichiro contract), and yet only won like 4 games in two seasons. I cant really say much though, cause Tigers did the same thing with Dontrelle.

Speaking of, I do like the M’s..but Detroit is definitely my team :)