Does Verlander Deserve More Than Felix?

The Tigers are "increasingly optimistic" about signing Justin Verlander to a long-term deal, reports Jon Paul Morosi of FOX SportsFelix Hernandez's five-year, $78MM deal is being used for comparison, but Morosi feels Verlander might be aiming to top that with either a larger guarantee or a sixth year.  What's more, Morosi feels Verlander is justified in asking for more money than Felix.

Morosi appears to be using the simplistic arbitration hearing-type stats to make his case – wins, All-Star appearances, and even no-hitters.  But this is not a hearing decided by three baseball rubes.  Consider:

  • Hernandez is almost three years younger than Verlander.
  • Hernandez has a better career ERA, ERA+, and FIP.
  • They're similar (Hernandez being slightly better) in career innings, strikeout rate, walk rate, and home run rate.
  • Regarding Verlander's seven extra career wins in six fewer starts, look at run support.  Verlander has received 5.2 runs scored per start, Felix 4.3.


Leave a Reply

61 Comments on "Does Verlander Deserve More Than Felix?"


Alldaybaseball
5 years 5 months ago

No, like they said, Felix is younger. Verlander should get a deal similar though.

evoxx
5 years 5 months ago

He took a little less. 80mm becomes 76.88 after MI state income tax. Felix will get 78 in WA where there is no state income tax.

j6takish
5 years 5 months ago

Verlander might get more, but he is getting paid his value, whereas Felix took a discount.

5 years 5 months ago

Both should take a discount, that is the benefit from a team’s point of view. That, and buying out FA years.

j6takish
5 years 5 months ago

Definitely, I would love for him to take a discount. He’s a staff ace in a very winnable division…and the Tigers have made it clear they plan on being perennial contenders post 2010. However, he hits FA in 2011 and may think he can get big money. I hope his hearts in the right place

zacharydmanprin
5 years 5 months ago

Shouldn’t Verlander tip the scales a bit for pitching in the tougher home ballpark?

soxluv
5 years 5 months ago

They both pitch in pitcher’s parks.

MarinerFanSince1979woot
5 years 5 months ago

The logic here is correct. Felix is younger and superior to Verlander. However, the M’s got a deal on Felix, so the only one that should be bothered by Velander getting more money is Felix. At the same time, Felix wanted to stay and wanted a long term deal. So as long as he’s happy, so are we!!! Verlander should get about the same amount as Felix if he isn’t giving Detroit a discount.

KingCorran
5 years 5 months ago

Nope. ERA+ accounts for this. Verlander is great, no question, but Felix is better across the board in actual pitching skills.

MarinerFanSince1979woot
5 years 5 months ago

Zacharydmanprin, the home ballpark isn’t as big of a deal because of the run support. That ballpark allows for more runs, but he also gets more run support. Felix is indeed a better pitcher.

harmony55
5 years 5 months ago

Justin Verlander has been valued at 18.9 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) over 132 starts and 840 innings. Felix Hernandez been been valued at 21.2 WAR over 138 starts and 905 innings.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8700&position=P

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4772&position=P

ReverendBlack
5 years 5 months ago

Useful, but this discussion doesn’t end with “which is a better starting pitcher” or even “which is a more valuable player”.

MarinerFanSince1979woot
5 years 5 months ago

Good point leviticus6688!!!! I like your logic.

leviticus6688
5 years 5 months ago

Not to say that Verlander is on the same level as Robertson or Bonderman by any means, but Dombrowski sure does have a track record when it comes to these deals…

MarinerFanSince1979woot
5 years 5 months ago

He also gave a bad contract to Dontrelle Willis.

5 years 5 months ago

In your 2nd post, you put ERA twice

Hernandez has a better career ERA, ERA , and FIP.

ReverendBlack
5 years 5 months ago

The question is whether Verlander is worth more TO THE TIGERS than Hernandez is worth TO THE MARINERS. One has to go well beyond to the two pitchers statistics to find the answer.

One should also consider that Hernandez is significantly underpaid.

DickAlmighty
5 years 5 months ago

How is Felix “significantly underpaid?” The M’s bought out two of Felix’s arbitration years, and three of Felix’s free agent years. Felix is averaging $15.6 million per season over the course of his contract; that’s certainly below his value IF HE HAD BEEN A FREE AGENT, but he wasn’t a free agent. He traded security for future earning potential. There’s no significant underpayment there. Verlander’s in the EXACT SAME POSITION as Felix was. Verlander has two more arb years left; so, Verlander, like Felix, will have to give up some of the earning potential that he would have had if he remained unsigned until he becomes a free agent in return for the security of knowing that if he blows his arm out this year, the Tigers can’t simply cut him loose (as they would have been able to, if he was just a team-controlled arb player). Both of these guys are signing long-term contracts WHILE THEY ARE UNDER TEAM CONTROL; by necessity, they will not get what they would have gotten if they had waited for free agency. There was no “underpayment” on Felix; he got what he deserved given his service time and skills. Verlander shouldn’t get more, because he’s not a better pitcher, and because he’s in precisely the same situation (in terms of service time) as Felix was… If Verlander does get more, the M’s will have gotten a better deal.

MarinerFanSince1979woot
5 years 5 months ago

And you have summed up the definition of a home team discount. He takes a discount in order to stay with the M’s long term.

If Verlander gets the same as Felix, the M’s will still have gotten a better deal. Thanks for pointing out the obvious with “who gets the better deal” line.

ReverendBlack
5 years 5 months ago

“How is Felix significantly underpaid?”

These are the alternatives: 1) he takes a richer contract from the Mariners; 2) he does not extend; 3) he takes the contract he did.

1) I don’t know anyone who thinks the first case was impossible: the Ms would have paid more. The total here over the five years exceeds 78m.

2) There is virtually no question at all that he would have made much much more money as a free agent. The total here over the five years exceeds 78m.

You seem confused about this one because of the arbitration hearings involved. Felix will presumably make more through the contact he now has than he would have through arbitration. But given what he will not make through free agency by virtue of signing this contract, he will make significantly less in total.

3) This is what he did. The total here over five years is 78m.

For his own reasons, Felix chose the least lucrative scenario — and so one doesn’t need to say he “should” be paid more. But one cannot say that he is anything but underpaid: he chose the least lucrative scenario. He is paid less than he is worth to just about every team in the league, including the Mariners.

bjsguess
5 years 5 months ago

A lot of assumptions here …

1. Why would Felix and his agent leave money on the table? While clear to you that the M’s management would have paid more it apparently wasn’t clear to either Felix or his agent. Do you have some link or evidence that shows Jack Z claiming that he was ready to offer more money to Felix? My guess – you are making a broad assumption based off what “you” feel Felix is worth.

2. This is a little confusing. Felix was not a FA. He was bound to arbitration. While I think we can agree that he was in line for $10m this year, there is no way to know what he would have made in 2011 and in his FA years.

To play devil’s advocate, let’s assume that 2009 was an outlier. The real Felix Hernandez is the guy we saw pre-2009. He’s a guy with a career ERA of 3.80 (ERA+ of 114). That’s an almost identical career path of a guy named Lackey (career ERA of 3.81 / ERA+ of 117). Lackey just signed as a FA for around $16m/year. To just assume that Hernandez would make $20m+/season a few years from now is hardly a guarantee. Injury, regression, an even crappier economy (is that possible?) could all conspire against in 2 years.

3. It wasn’t the least lucrative. It was the best deal available to him given his limited negotiation leverage. It may very well turn out to be the deal of the century (think Pujols) or he might just be another average pitcher earning more than he is worth. The reality is that nobody knows the answer to this question. What Felix DOES know is that he is set for life. Regardless of how well he pitches or how healthy he remains the guy is uber-rich. This was the only way to guarantee that. All other options carry risk – a risk that he apparently was not willing to take.

ReverendBlack
5 years 5 months ago

“1. Why would Felix and his agent leave money on the table? While clear to you that the M’s management would have paid more it apparently wasn’t clear to either Felix or his agent. Do you have some link or evidence that shows Jack Z claiming that he was ready to offer more money to Felix?”

I AM JACK Z.

No, of course I don’t. But if you follow along, taking away the better-offer alternative from what I offered doesn’t change the outcome: taking the M’s 5/78 offer is the least lucrative scenario.

“2. This is a little confusing. Felix was not a FA. He was bound to arbitration. While I think we can agree that he was in line for $10m this year, there is no way to know what he would have made in 2011 and in his FA years.”

No one said he was a FA; I mentioned his arb years more than once.

“To play devil’s advocate, let’s assume that 2009 was an outlier. The real Felix Hernandez is the guy we saw pre-2009. He’s a guy with a career ERA of 3.80 (ERA+ of 114). That’s an almost identical career path of a guy named Lackey (career ERA of 3.81 / ERA+ of 117). Lackey just signed as a FA for around $16m/year.”

You didn’t laugh as you wrote this? You’d do well in negotiations, and indeed this kind of nonsense is probably in part what got Felix inked to a lesser deal. But in order to be convinced at all by any of this and believe “Felix IS the guy seen pre-2009″, we have to go ahead and discount everything every scout has ever said about Felix, discount his age and trend toward improvement, discount his already-once-achieved ace status at 23, and every other metric which has for some time made clear that not only is his ceiling as high as any starting pitcher’s, but that he is likelier than most to reach it.

So I guess what I’m saying is sure, if we assume Felix Hernandez is not Felix Hernandez, the calculus changes dramatically and he may not be underpaid!

“To just assume that Hernandez would make $20m+/season a few years from now is hardly a guarantee. Injury, regression, an even crappier economy (is that possible?) could all conspire against in 2 years.”

You assume that it’s an assumption. The things you mention here aren’t just immeasurable possibilities. There are indicators of injury risk, indicators of the likelihood of regression, indicators of economic prosperity or its lack. All of it is measurable and all of it, measured, concludes he will very probably be worth more than 20m per by as a 2012 FA. This is a broad consensus.

ReverendBlack
5 years 5 months ago

“3. It wasn’t the least lucrative. It was the best deal available to him given his limited negotiation leverage. It may very well turn out to be the deal of the century (think Pujols) or he might just be another average pitcher earning more than he is worth. The reality is that nobody knows the answer to this question.”

Might have to eat my words about your aptitude for negotiations. The argument “NOBODY KNOWS FOR SURE” barely counts as one.

All baseball knowledge — indeed, all knowledge categorically — is probabilistic. Consequently, we work our hardest to determine the probabilities of potential outcomes and plan our actions accordingly. Whether or not Felix will remain an ace is not a toss-up; it is a decidedly probable outcome. This accounts much of the source of his value and it IS in part the source of EVERY players value: how likely is it that they will perform.

pinkiepinkerton
5 years 5 months ago

I look at it this way. If you had a 5/$80 contract to give away and your choices are Verlander or Hernandez, which one are you choosing?

This is why Verlander deserves a contract of lesser value than Hernandez…maybe just a few million over the life of the contract, but still less.

ReverendBlack
5 years 5 months ago

No, that’s silly; no one has that choice.

Players have no objective value whatever. The question is “if you are the tigers and you have to choose between giving Verlander 5/80 (or more) or letting him test Free Agency, what do you choose?” And that calculation has almost nothing to do with Felix Hernandez.

pinkiepinkerton
5 years 5 months ago

The question is “Does Verlander deserve more than Felix?” or at least thats what my screen reads. Based on that question, then I so no.

jb226
5 years 5 months ago

I agree that that is the question, but I also agree that you oversimplified it.I don’t think there’s anybody on these forums who doesn’t believe that Felix could have gotten significantly more money–probably DOUBLE–if he had waited and hit free agency. In other words, it’s fairly well accepted that he, for whatever reasons, took a discount to stay in Seattle.Likewise, I don’t think Verlander is saying “I’m a better pitcher than Felix.” He would be hard-pressed to make that case. What he seems to be saying is “I’m comparable to Felix, and I don’t care that he took a discount.” And why should he? Whether or not you want to stay where you are enough to take less money is a very personal decision and one that has wide-ranging implications for you and your family in additionto the team and your future hypothetical team.In other words: Felix is better, and in that sense he deserves more money. But he chose to take less. At least in Verlander’s mind, that morphs the question into “Does Verlander’s performance deserve more money than Felix settled for?” And that is less clear. Why, afer all, should his worth be so largely dependent on what somebody else took? (Personally, I think the offers we have been hearing are quite fair.)

MarinerFanSince1979woot
5 years 5 months ago

I couldn’t have said it better!!!!

pinkiepinkerton
5 years 5 months ago

I would actually say that you are creating a question that was never asked (god i’m a debate nerd). I don’t believe I am oversimplifying it at all, just responding to the question that was posed as the headline.That all said, I don’t disagree with you at all. I’m just saying that if all things are equal, Hernandez deserves more based on all aspects of performance and age than Verlander. Now, if there is any league that is not equal, it’s MLB. Verlander should get a larger contract than Hernandez did, but he doesn’t deserve a larger contract than Hernandez got. If the comparison is directly to Hernandez then Verlander gets a smaller contract than Hernandez. However, Verlander will be getting a contract that is comparable to Santana, Halladay, Sabathia and the rest of the league. Verlander may or may not deserve a bigger contract than the one Hernandez got based on all contracts around the league, but he does not deserve a bigger contract based off Hernandez.

ReverendBlack
5 years 5 months ago

Best of luck in putting together a formula for how much a player “deserves” independent of the factors I mentioned.

5 years 5 months ago

Good luck with the case that Verlander should somehow deserve more money than Felix. I’ve laid out how this contract should look and why everyone is happy.Just go 9.5 this year, 12 in 2011, 13 in 2012, 15 in 2013, 13 2014, 13 in 20156 years 75.5 mil.Nothing to laugh at. He’s got long term security, more money than he will ever likely use, and gets to hit the open market at 33 when contract ends.Salary increase from 9.5 to 14 up then settling lower each year. I’ve always thought that frontloading the contract would is smart. I would have 0 problems paying Verlander 13 and 14 mil in his prime years.Contract never goes over 15 mil. I’m one of the few people who would never give out 17+Mil unless they were Halladay durable.I like that contract a lot more than Felix’s low start then explosion into the 18+Mil’s. He’s hella young though, so it makes sense…I guess. (10:$6.5M, 11:$10M, 12:$18.5M, 13:$19.5M, 14:$20M)I’m pretty sure Verlander’s preference is to stay and win in Detroit and he makes a boat full of money. Everyone ends up happy.Damn..I should be an agent.

bjsguess
5 years 5 months ago

I would fire you if you acted as my agent. No way is Verlander worth $20m or so less than Hernandez. He deserves equivalent type money. Maybe not the same, but he shouldn’t be taking any serious discount.

5 years 5 months ago

“No way is Verlander worth $20m or so less than Hernandez. ”

Felix deal=78
My proposed Verlander deal=75.5 (Hardly 20m less.)
Verlander will take the security that comes with having 68+Million.
He still hits the open market again at 33.
Detroit will want to lock him up, justin and porcello will look to build the staff.

redsandyanksfan
5 years 5 months ago

Dave Dombrowski is going a 12 year 350 million based on how he is givng out extensions :p so tiger fans you have mr verlander for his career or most of it

cabby24
5 years 5 months ago

No, I am a Tigers fan, and I do not believe Verlander deserves more money than Hernandez, who is the younger and better pitcher.

Hernandez has never had a year like Verlander’s 2008, which was a disaster. That is the big difference for me. But I think they were pretty comparable pitchers last year, despite the ERA difference. Hernandez had the best defense in baseball playing behind him, which made his ERA appear better than he actually pitched. Verlander had the much better K/BB, FIP, xFIP, WAR. He just had an abnormally high BABIP.

However, I’m not convinced that it’s not preferable to trade JV for prospects rather than sign him to a big extension. He’s never been on the DL, but his workload does concern me. He threw 300+ more pitches than anyone in baseball last year, and there is no doubt that Leyland will continue to abuse him for as long as he remains the manager. If the Tigers had a manager who was better at managing his pitchers and took pitch counts seriously, I’d feel better about this deal. As it is, I’m leery of the deal becoming an albatross, like most of the long-term deals Dombrowski’s signed have become.

MarinerFanSince1979woot
5 years 5 months ago

Felix did have some great defense behind him at the end of the year, but still had Betancourt and Lopez at short and 2nd. However, Felix had more strikeouts and less BB. That is all Felix, not his defense.

No Question, Felix IS a superious pitcher to Verlander.

I do agree with the abuse provided by Leyland though. He is old school and old school doesn’t cut it. He should take care of his pitchers better with the pitch counts. Maybe that’s why Detroit has so many bad contracts. Not because they were bad contracts, but because Leyland over-pitched his players.

cabby24
5 years 5 months ago

Felix had a higher BB/9 ratio (2.7 K/9 compared to 2.4 K/9) and a lower K/9 (8.2 K/9 compared to 10.1 K/9) than Verlander last year. That’s why Verlander had the better FIP, xFIP, WAR. His ERA was only in the mid 3’s because of a very high BABIP at .328.

AmericanMovieFan
5 years 5 months ago

6 years is risky, but he’s right at the fence on age. He’s still young enough that a 6 year deal would work out for him at this point. Obviously risky, but the chance is very good he’ll prove durable over the life of the contract.

I agree, he’ll get in the neighborhood of 5 years/$75-85MM. It’s POSSIBLE that if he holds out long enough they’d throw him a 6 year/$100MM deal.

slr5607
5 years 5 months ago

I think that Felix and Tim lincecum will be the highest paid pitchers in the game with their next contract signings. Lincecum is the only young pitcher that deserves more than Felix in my mind.

BlueCatuli
5 years 5 months ago

One could make a case for Zach Grienke

Guest
5 years 5 months ago

We know pre arbitration contracts are tricky.. We know Arbitration system is a little tricky. Biggest example, Jason Repko making half a million to suck in the minors.

BlueCatuli
5 years 5 months ago

Unfortunately, I have only been able to see highlights of Felix and looking through stats. I have seen Verlander pitch live, and he is my favorite ball player, so I may be a little biased. I think they are very comparable pitchers. As far as the run support goes, I think their teams finished about how they should have given those numbers. Both are good pitchers. A few million here or there isn’t a big deal, but both deserve similar contracts.

Zackkkk23
5 years 5 months ago

I”m going to go ahead and say Greinke deserves more than both of them!! haha 2010 CY YOUNG WINNER= GREINKE :)

leviticus6688
5 years 5 months ago

Based on Dombrowski’s record with giving Tiger pitchers extensions and the results of them, Detroit fans should be praying Verlander doesn’t extend.

5 years 5 months ago

Yeah six years is a very long time. I’ve seen enough 4+ year contracts go bad to make me weary whenever someone gets one. Even Felix.. the upside is awesome, the downside is worse.

tigers22
5 years 5 months ago

Haha yeah okay…we aren’t talking about Nate Robertson or Dontrelle Willis here

MarinerFanSince1979woot
5 years 5 months ago

Fastjohnny, Felix is a stud and he earned the contract. There is risk for everything we do, but you can’t just sit on your hands and not take that risk, otherwise you end up working as a cashier at a gas station. Felix is worth the risk and probably could have asked for more if he wasn’t offering a home team discount.

BrancasBombers
5 years 5 months ago

This “willing to take a hometown discount” is the silliest thing I’ve ever heard. A player that takes an extension for below market value is really only doing so because it’s guaranteed money before he hits the free agent market. All of the “heart’s in the right place” and “he loves the city” comments are just sophomoric.

There is an expression: A bird in hand is worth 2 in the bush.

5 years 5 months ago

Working at a gas station is pretty risky, just sayin’ I would bet that Felix will be both healthy and productive through the majority of his contract. I would say the same for Verlander, although he’s a little older. After Willis, Robertson and Bonderman you just gotta get this one right.

DickAlmighty
5 years 5 months ago

Felix didn’t take a hometown discount. He took a security discount. Felix was not a free agent. He could not go anywhere else. He was under team control through 2011, which meant he was playing for one-year contracts this year and next, but under no circumstances could he leave Seattle.

The term “hometown discount” applies when a player has more than one option where he can play, and turns down more money elsewhere to stay in the place he’s already playing. That wasn’t the case here.

Felix took a security discount; he agreed to stay with the M’s, because the M’s offered him the opportunity not to worry about his contract status until 2015. Had nothing to do with hometown versus elsewhere; had everything to do with long-term versus year-to-year contracts.

bustercherrie
5 years 5 months ago

Hey I take offense to that! I work at a gas station at college!! lol

MarinerFanSince1979woot
5 years 5 months ago

You are absolutely right!! He can’t screw this one up or he should be out of a job.

MarinerFanSince1979woot
5 years 5 months ago

You’re wrong. Felix could have gotten a lot more money if he had held out a little longer, maybe til after Verlander signed. But he didn’t because he wanted to stay. Some baseball players do have hearts and do want to live at home instead of move their family around everywhere. So yes, this would be considered a home team discount.

leviticus6688
5 years 5 months ago

When Willis was extended, he was coming off seasons of 6.2, 2.9, and 1.0 WAR for the Marlins. When or if Verlander signs he’ll be coming off seasons of 4.1, 3.4, 8.2 WAR.
Since Dontrelle was already clearly in decline with an ERA over 5 in the NL and Dombrowski was still willing to give him 3 yrs/$29 million, it would lead one to assume that he values Verlander exponentially greater.
I’m just saying Verlander is probably going to put up numbers closer to 4.5 WAR in the future and not 8.0 like Dombrowski might be expecting. In ’09 he struck out 3 guys more per 9 IP than in ’08 while his walk rate went down by over 1 BB/9. He’s good, but he’s not Felix good.

BrancasBombers
5 years 5 months ago

Here’s an example of waiting a little while longer: In 2000, Detroit reportedly offered Juan Gonzalez an 8-year, $140 million contract. He decided to go after FA money and opt to decline the offer. Later that year, he suffered what basically turned out to be a career ending injury (he posted one successful season following the injury), but still racked up about $40 million over the remainder of his career. Not taking that money cost him $100 million dollars.

Every player “still has a heart”, this is not a discussion on morality, it is about security. It’s the same reason why Tim suggested that the team expected him to sign at a discount.

bjsguess
5 years 5 months ago

BrancasBombers and DickAlmighty are right on.Felix’s decision to take a 5 year deal is based on risk. Sure, enjoying where he plays factors into this in terms of length (I doubt he would have extended this into his FA time if he didn’t like Seattle) but I am suspicious if this has anything to do with dollars.Players are faced with decisions like this all of the time. Sometimes going year to year works out great. The player stays healthy, performs at a high level, and then lands his mega contract. Other times the player gets burned. Look around the bigs now. There are tons of players who had amazing runs and then the wheels just fell off. Injury and regression of ability can happen to ANYONE. One quick example – Mike Hampton. Often cited as one of the worst FA contracts EVER. The guy from 1995 to 2000 pitched 1200 innings. He averaged 200 innings per year. He was handled as a young pitcher (Joba rules before there was Joba), not reaching 200 innings until his 4th season. Over that stretch he posted an ERA 3.35 (ERA+ of 125). Going into his age 28 season few players were more of a sure bet than Hampton. (For what it’s worth, Felix’s career to this point includes 5 years, 900 innings, an ERA of 3.45 with an ERA+ of 125 – see the similarities?)Then the wheels fell off. Injury, poor play, you name it, he experienced it. Over the next 9 years the guy has had ONE season where his ERA was under 4 and his IP exceeded 100. Because he signed his contract after his 2000 year he earned over $100m. If he had signed it just one year later he would have been lucky to have netted more than $10m over that same amount of time.Now, I don’t think that Felix’s career will mirror’s Hampton’s. Hampton was a fluke, an anomaly. However, he isn’t totally unique. To just assume that Felix will stay healthy and productive is a huge gamble. He knows it and his agent knows it. That’s why an undermarket value contract that goes out for 5 years makes sense to him. He doesn’t want to be the next Hampton (or Juan Gonzalez – as BrancasBombers pointed out).

ReverendBlack
5 years 5 months ago

I’m sure Felix Hernandez has been extremely worried about his contract status in 2012.

andrizzy
5 years 5 months ago

Felix did take a hometown discount! At 16 he took less money and signed with seattle even know more teams that scouted him offered more money including the Yankees. He loves Seattle and wants to be here.

DickAlmighty
5 years 5 months ago

You’re joking. And yet, you’re right. Until he signed his five-year deal, Felix had made a grand total of $5 million playing baseball, and he stood to maybe make $8-10 million in 2010, and (if he stayed healthy and effective) maybe make $12-15 million in 2011.

If you knew you had a $100-million arm, but you didn’t have any leverage to turn that $100-million arm into a $100-million contract, you ABSOLUTELY WOULD worry about your contract status in 2012. Baseball players have very few opportunities to actually leverage their skills & talent into money; most have to wait six years before they hit free agency, where they will finally get their big payday. Until then, they make (relatively) small salaries, and have to deal with the uncertainty of year-to-year contracts.

So, while you may think, “Felix has nothing to worry about, he’ll get paid,” I can guarantee you Felix was worrying. In fact, the simple fact that Felix signed what is universally acknowledged as a “below market value” contract SHOWS Felix was worried about his status in 2012. After all, if he hadn’t been worried, he would have simply waited until he became a free agent, and maximized his value then.

In summary, your sarcastic remark, minus the sarcasm, equals the truth.

ReverendBlack
5 years 5 months ago

“If you knew you had a $100-million arm, but you didn’t have any leverage to turn that $100-million arm into a $100-million contract, you ABSOLUTELY WOULD worry about your contract status in 2012.”

I suppose this turns on the significance of the word “worry”. If it simply means “be aware of and to any degree concerned about”, then sure. Beyond that, no.

“Until then, they make (relatively) small salaries, and have to deal with the uncertainty of year-to-year contracts.”

(Relative) uncertainty, you meant. Each player’s risk of injury isn’t equally [im]probable; neither is each’s potential for success.

“I can guarantee you Felix was worrying. In fact, the simple fact that Felix signed what is universally acknowledged as a “below market value” contract SHOWS Felix was worried about his status in 2012.”

It doesn’t show this; it merely suggests that it his future status may have been a factor in his decision — which goes without saying. The difference there is all-important. There are a number of factors outside of risk of injury or poor performance that influence a player’s decision in such a scenario, all of which are being written about in this thread. My comment only aimed to mock any substantial worry over the issue, even if Felix may have in fact experienced some. For even coming off mediocre years, in 2012 Felix would have made mad money and just about everybody already knows it.

The larger picture here is that even if your guess about his priorities & concerns is right, Felix made a bad decision — and the Mariners capitalized. Felix is underpaid.

Civilization
5 years 5 months ago

Yeah Verlander had a bad 2008 but what does that say? One bad year doesn’t prove much of anything. The same as one good year doesn’t prove much of anything. Verlander had a better ERA+ then Hernandez in 06′ and 07′. Hernandez had a better in 08′ and 09′. Are you confident that the true Hernandez is represented by his 2009 season? Or could Hernandez been playing balls out for a franchise contract? Granted he didn’t ask for one, but we’ve seen players play beyond their long term means before…

Hernandez is the better pitcher then Verlander, he deserves more money they Verlander does. But at the moment I don’t see a large difference between the two. If Hernandez can duplicate his 09 numbers then we’ve got ourselves a different discussion.