Using Postseason Odds To Identify Sellers

Buyers and sellers can be hard to identify this time of year, since so many teams are often within a few games of a playoff spot. It's not even July yet, but a number of clubs have extremely slim odds of becoming contenders and appear likely to sell. Here are the teams that have less than a 1% chance of making the playoffs in 2010, according to the postseason odds report at Baseball Prospectus.

  • Orioles
  • Royals
  • Indians
  • Mariners
  • Nationals
  • Astros
  • Pirates
  • Diamondbacks

Other than those eight clubs, the A's (7% chance of making the playoffs), White Sox (6%), Cubs (5%) and Brewers (2%) are potential sellers to watch. The White Sox, winners of ten of their last 12, have dramatically improved their chances of playing meaningful games down the stretch. They have shown that anything is possible, but the eight teams listed above seem like good bets to become sellers within the next six weeks. 

In case you're wondering, BP suggests the Rangers (81%) are the safest bet to make the playoffs.

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2 Comments on "Using Postseason Odds To Identify Sellers"

5 years 1 month ago

Guess it pays to be in a pretty poor division with only four teams. Texas is pretty good though.

5 years 1 month ago

Isn’t it a bit early for this? There’s no way you can assume that the Braves have a 75% chance of making the playoffs…it should be higher than that 😉