Free Agent Arbitration Offer Predictions

23 free agents were offered arbitration last year, down one from the year prior.  This year, I predict that more than 30 players will receive offers.  I expect this mainly because of my feelings on the 65 individual candidates.  On a macro level, we could see more arbitration offers to free agents due to more value being placed on draft picks.  Additionally, teams may be more inclined to offer if they think players are more likely to decline due to the lavish contracts given out so far.

Last year I was correct on 58 of 70 (82.9%).  This year there are 63 Type A or B free agents, excluding Joaquin Benoit and John Buck.  So hopefully I'm right on at least 53 of these.  The deadline is tomorrow night at midnight eastern time, a week earlier than in years past.

Type A

  • Grant Balfour – Yes, he will be offered arbitration
  • Adrian Beltre – Yes
  • Carl Crawford – Yes
  • Jorge De La Rosa – Yes
  • Scott Downs – Yes
  • Adam Dunn – Yes
  • Frank Francisco – No
  • Jason Frasor – Yes
  • Vladimir Guerrero – No
  • Matt Guerrier – Yes
  • Derek Jeter – Yes
  • Paul Konerko – Yes
  • Cliff Lee – Yes
  • Derrek Lee – No
  • Victor Martinez – Yes
  • Bengie Molina – No
  • Magglio Ordonez – No
  • Carl Pavano – Yes
  • Andy Pettitte – No
  • A.J. Pierzynski – No
  • Manny Ramirez - No
  • Arthur Rhodes – Yes
  • Mariano Rivera - No
  • Rafael Soriano – Yes
  • Miguel Tejada – No
  • Jayson Werth – Yes
  • Dan Wheeler – Yes

Type B

  • Rod Barajas - No
  • Lance Berkman – No
  • Orlando Cabrera – No
  • Randy Choate – Yes
  • Kevin Correia – No
  • Jesse Crain – Yes
  • Johnny Damon – No
  • Octavio Dotel – No
  • Chad Durbin – Yes
  • David Eckstein – No
  • Pedro Feliciano – Yes
  • Brian Fuentes – No
  • Jon Garland – Yes
  • Kevin Gregg – Yes
  • Brad Hawpe – No
  • Aaron Heilman – No
  • Trevor Hoffman – No
  • Orlando Hudson – No
  • Aubrey Huff – Yes
  • Gerald Laird – No
  • Adam LaRoche – Yes
  • Felipe Lopez – Yes
  • Hideki Matsui – No
  • Kevin Millwood – No
  • Miguel Olivo – Yes
  • Carlos Pena – No
  • Scott Podsednik – Yes
  • J.J. Putz – Yes
  • Chad Qualls – No
  • Jon Rauch – Yes
  • Yorvit Torrealba – Yes
  • Koji Uehara - No
  • Juan Uribe – Yes
  • Jason Varitek – No
  • Javier Vazquez – No
  • Kerry Wood – No

Thanks to Ben Nicholson-Smith, Mark Gonzales, and others who gave feedback on this list.


Full Story | 42 Comments | Categories: Uncategorized

Leave a Reply

42 Comments on "Free Agent Arbitration Offer Predictions"


4 years 9 months ago

Rangers will offer Francisco arbitration, what do they have to loose by offering it?

4 years 9 months ago

Definitely someone I was on the fence about, and I was almost swayed by Jamey Newberg’s opinion that he will get an offer. My feeling is that with Francisco having spent a lot of time on the DL the past few years the Rangers will prefer not to potentially be tied to him this early in the offseason should he accept.

privey
4 years 9 months ago

lose….not loose…has to be the most mispelled word on the internet.

4 years 9 months ago

I agree that the Padres will offer both Torrealba and Garland arbitration.

Infield Fly
4 years 9 months ago

I don’t know….you really think the Rays will offer Carl Crawford arb? [wink]

stl_cards16
4 years 9 months ago

I don’t get the Felipe Lopez situation. I’m not sure why the Red Sox would offer him arbitration. No one signed him last offseason and he settled for a 1/1 contract right before spring training. He will definately accept this year won’t he?

4 years 9 months ago

This could go either way; Ben feels that they won’t offer. My opinion is that they picked him up in late Sept wanting a draft pick, and nothing has changed since then. If they offer, it means they expect him to decline in search of more playing time or else would not mind having him on the roster at a mild raise for next year.

stl_cards16
4 years 9 months ago

Yeah, I see your point. I guess there really wouldn’t be any other reason they would have picked him up that late in the season. Makes some sense now.

4 years 9 months ago

“Mariano Rivera – No, Andy Pettitte – No”. You’re joking right? Why would the Yankees not offer either one arbitration? You mean to say that neither one will play for the Yankees next year? Furthermore if the Yankees think that Vazquez can get more money (and based on the rumors he can) from someone else they may offer him as well.

4 years 9 months ago

“You mean to say that neither one will play for the Yankees next year?”

Nope, that’s not what no arb offer means.

4 years 9 months ago

I was under the impression that no arb offer means they can’t play for the team till May.

4 years 9 months ago

That was once the case, but not anymore. For example, the Yankees did not offer Pettitte arb last year.

4 years 9 months ago

My bad then. What do you think about Vazquez though? Doesn’t it sound like he would turn it down anyway?

0bsessions
4 years 9 months ago

Why? Guy’s coming off an absolutely awful season where he admitted to arm trouble. He’s less likely to accept now that he doesn’t have the Type A tag attached, but no team is going to give him even close to what he’d make in arbitration after his 2010.

ETA: If he declines arbition, he’ll likely have to take a one year a show-me contract elsewhere at significantly less money. Why do that when he could take a one year show-me contract at a possible raise?

Sniderlover
4 years 9 months ago

Still, it can’t hurt to offer arbitration to Rivera.

4 years 9 months ago

I think River Ave Blues explains it well…Yankees have been risk-averse when it comes to offering arb. So the only exception I can see is Jeter.

YanksFanSince78
4 years 9 months ago

I think the Yanks would be inclined to offer Mo arbitration more than anyone else. Yes, he already makes more than any other closer but so what? It’s a 1 year deal w/ limited risk, he’s overpaid but performs like no other at a very high level and I can’t imagine him getting much over $15 mil anyway. Worse case he accepts and gets 1/$17 mil. Way overpaid but as long as he performs well then the Yanks won’t complain and they limit their risk in case he has a bad year or incurs a long lasting injury.

Jeter is the one I’m less inclined to offer arbitration to. Arb will overpay what might be a player in steep decline (2011 will prove if 2010 was a fluke or a sign of things to come) and the arb process alone forces management to point out all the negatives about a player, and at this point that might widen the gap between the two for future contracts in 2012.

andrewyf
4 years 9 months ago

…but Rivera isn’t that kind of a risk. The Yankees want him, and if they can get him for one year near his current salary, they’d jump on that. No way he doesn’t get offered arbitration. However, it doesn’t matter, because he’ll be getting a 2-year deal worth $30+ M anyway.

4 years 9 months ago

Tim, I heard that arb offers are not guaranteed. what does this mean? If they’re not guaranteed then why wouldn’t every team offer arb and then void the offer later if they don’t want the player?

MetsEventually
4 years 9 months ago

Hopefully Fuentes or Choate aren’t offered. Mets need to pick up a lefty guy again and maybe if Vazquez brings his price down, without the arb. too.

4 years 9 months ago

I agree with Micheal C. there is no way the rangers do not offer Fransisco arb purely based upon the Benoit deal. Benoit has been hurt as much as Frankie and look at the deal he received… not to mention the rangers have an obvious need for an 8th inning guy. We give you the right change your mind before tomorrow.

4 years 9 months ago

These predictions are set in stone…if I published them and then changed them they wouldn’t really be predictions. I can see Francisco getting an offer, but I don’t have the 100% confidence level either way that you do.

4 years 9 months ago

Honestly, it is difficult as a rangers fan to know what to expect as it relates to financial desicions. If the new ownership group takes payroll closer to 100 million, then I would think offering Francisco would be a given. Plus, Daniels has never spent much money on the bullpen since he has been our GM (greatest signing is Oliver). So I can see both sides to this as well.

massage_1953
4 years 9 months ago

Vlad—- Yes for a 25% off sale

4 years 9 months ago

I can’t see the benefit to the White Sox in not offering AJ arb – am I missing something here?

twins33
4 years 9 months ago

I think Hudson will be offered and reject. I know he’s had tough offseason’s lately, but for the past few years he’s deserved multi-year offers…or at least I’ve thought so. I doubt he’d accept. He’d want to see what’s out there first.

Maybe someone will finally give him a two year deal. If not, I wouldn’t be surprised if he could still get 5 million. It may be less than arbitration, but I think he’ll take that risk again.

Sky14
4 years 9 months ago

to my understanding the twins cannot offer hudson arb. based on the agreement made when he signed unless I’m mistaken

twins33
4 years 9 months ago

That’s only if he’s a type A free agent. He’s a type B.

4 years 9 months ago

Exactly my thinking as well. I expect all of the eligible players for the Twins will be offered arbitration except Fuentes. Crain and Pavano are locks to decline.

Bernaldo
4 years 9 months ago

Not a chance they offer Hudson arbitration! They don’t want to take an chances that he might accept it. It was reported last week in the STAR TRIBUNE that Hudson drove Gardenhire “crazy” and that it Hudson were to return, it would be on the Twins terms, not Hudson’s or an arbitrator’s decision.

melonis_rex
4 years 9 months ago

If there was really a bad environment between Hudson and Gardenhire, then I’m sure that Hudson would decline—especially since it won’t affect his earning power (he’s Type B).

Hudson’s good enough that him accepting isn’t the worst thing ever. Either trade him or deal with him for another year. He has no reason to accept though, as plenty of teams need 2B and Hudson is the best one on the FA market.

4 years 9 months ago

No way the Yankees offer Jeter arb. He made like $23 mil last year.

4 years 9 months ago

No way the Yankees offer Jeter arb. He made like $23 mil last year.

Sniderlover
4 years 9 months ago

It’s not the amount that matters to Yankees, it’s the term.

4 years 9 months ago

Yes, I know they are the Yankees but if the cost didn’t matter they wouldn’t have offered only 3/$45. Just because they have money doesn’t mean they have to be dumb with it. Otherwise they can just throw $25 mil a year at anyone/everyone.

Jeter put up Scutaro like numbers last year. I don’t think its worth $23 mil

4 years 9 months ago

I thought Ryan Ludwick was arb eligible one more season….?

4 years 9 months ago

If anybody deserves a long-term deal, its a guy like Carl Crawford. He’s been who everyone expects him to be for almost every year he’s been in the big leagues.

4 years 9 months ago

In my opinion, Rangers will offer Guerrero arbitation. They are willing to bring back Guerrero for a one year contract less than 8M and may lose him for the team who offer him a multiple-year contract. Of course the risk is what’s his asking price if he accpet arbitration.

Marchetti89
4 years 9 months ago

hell no because he would make more then 8 million in arbitration. they would have a good argument that 2009 was a fluke and that the numbers vlad put up this year are about average to what he has done in his career. he should prob get a one year 8 million dollar deal but arbitration wouldnt see it that way and thats why he wont be offered

Marchetti89
4 years 9 months ago

i entirely disagree. yes, the rangers would be willing to bring him back at one year less than 8M but Vlads people would have very solid argument that his production last season was very consistant with his career numbers and that 2009 was just a fluke

4 years 9 months ago

I dont see anyway the rangers offer Vlad arb. They probably want to spend less on their DH and will take the best value deal of Vlad, Berk, Lee, or Manny…

4 years 9 months ago

will the yankees offer arbitration to anyone? that is main the reason they got vazquez