Free Agent Market For Right-handed Starters

The free agent market for right-handed starters features an array of mediocrity.  Let's break it down.

The Best Available

Five healthy right-handed starters jump out from this year's free agent class: Carl Pavano, Bronson Arroyo, Jake Westbrook, Jon Garland, and Hiroki Kuroda.  Arroyo is expected to be retained by the Reds, however.  All five pitched 195+ innings, with Pavano actually tallying 227 including the playoffs.  Pavano also leads free agent righties in innings per start by a wide margin at 6.91.  As a Type A free agent, he'll likely carry the added cost of a draft pick.

Out of this group no one posted an ERA above Westbrook's 4.22, but Baseball Prospectus' cool SIERA stat suggests no one deserved one below 4.00 except Kuroda.  Aside from Arroyo, they're all groundballers.  Kuroda is the only thing close to a strikeout pitcher here, and his control and groundball rate were strong too.  Though he turns 36 in February, Kuroda is my pick from this group.  They're all capable innings eaters, though.

Teams willing to spend $8MM+ per year on one of these guys should look at Japanese righty Hisashi Iwakuma.  He may require a $16MM posting fee plus a contract, but he's only 30 and had pretty good numbers in Japan this year.

Back-End Rotation Types

Rodrigo Lopez, Kevin Millwood, Dave Bush, Jeremy Bonderman, and Freddy Garcia profile as 4.75 ERA, back-end rotation types.  Lopez and Millwood can chew up innings better than the others.  All five are prone to the longball.

Bounceback Candidates

Javier Vazquez, Kevin Correia, Aaron Harang, and Rich Harden are a year removed from useful seasons.  All four had attractive strikeout rates as starters this year.  Correia, with a 48.9% groundball rate, could be a sleeper.

Injured In 2010

Vicente Padilla (forearm) and Brad Penny (back) had strong but abbreviated seasons.  Brandon Webb (shoulder), Justin Duchscherer (hip), and Chris Young (shoulder) barely pitched at all.  Many millions will be guaranteed to these guys in hopes of catching lightning in a bottle.

Non-Tender Candidates

Kyle Davies, Brian Bannister, Jeff Karstens, Dustin Moseley, John Maine, Sergio Mitre, and Brandon McCarthy are candidates to be cut loose next month by their teams.  They've all had their moments.

Outside The Box Options

Pedro Martinez and Braden Looper sat out the 2010 season; perhaps they could still help at the back-end of an NL rotation.  Koji Uehara spent the year as a reliever but would be an interesting starting candidate if he could stay healthy.

Fighting For Innings

Jeff Suppan, Todd Wellemeyer, Brian Moehler, Ian Snell, and Micah Owings will have to battle for opportunities and will have to be open to the bullpen or minor leagues.

Summary

As always, there's a handful of pitchers coming off solid seasons and a larger group of injured or ineffective hurlers.


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19 Comments on "Free Agent Market For Right-handed Starters"


AllYourBaseAreBelongToUs
4 years 10 months ago

Calling Pavano healthy feels insulting =P

The_Porcupine
4 years 10 months ago

Man, I’d hate to have to commit millions of dollars to that underwhelming bunch. I don’t like Garland and would avoid him, but Arroyo, Kuroda, Westbrook, and Pavano are good enough to be solid #3’s in a rotation. If you expect them to be better than that (and pay them to more than a 3), I think they’ll disappoint. I like Vazquez, but in a low pressure environment (certainly no where in the AL East). See if he gets his velocity and stuff back. Other than those names, I think you’d do more harm than good in signing any of the names listed. Trade market is the place to go.

4 years 10 months ago

In order: Lee, Pavano, Kuroda, Westbrook, trade.
Maybe take a flier on Webb, or Padilla, but if they can’t do that, I’d just as soon bring back Bonderman. Much better to go hard after a trade for one of the G Men. Greinke, Garza, Guthrie, and throw in Gio Gonzalez just because Beaneball insists on trading every good player before he has to pay them.

rbeezy
4 years 10 months ago

Bondo desn’t deserve a mlb contract. he was awful.

Ian_Smell
4 years 10 months ago

Jeff Karstens better not be cut. He was arguably the Pirates’ best starter until they got McDonald.

AllYourBaseAreBelongToUs
4 years 10 months ago

Really? I know Ohlendorf has been injured but I’d think he is.

4 years 10 months ago

It’s only speculation on my part so maybe they’re not even considering it.

wickedkevin
4 years 10 months ago

What about Erik Bedard? Even though he’ll more than likely accept his player option.

4 years 10 months ago

When did Bedard start pitching right-handed?

4 years 10 months ago

Look for the big fish missing from this list to go 22-4, 2.43 ERA and win the Cy Young.

Yes, that man is Jamie Moyer.

4 years 10 months ago

Jamie Moyer isn’t missing from the list unless he decided to start throwing right handed.

4 years 10 months ago

He might throw faster right handed lol

4 years 10 months ago

You haven’t seen his mock HOF plaque on ESPN? He switches to righty this year.

4 years 10 months ago

Ok i just saw it lol. I get it now.

HHHDMS
4 years 10 months ago

Funny how Pavano led the league in innings after ripping off the Yankees for 4 years with buttock and assorted *injuries*

Guest
4 years 10 months ago

I know, its hysterical.

4 years 10 months ago

And to think that he turned down more money from the Tigers to play for New York. Tsk, Tsk, Tsk. Well, at least the Tigers landed a nice consolation prize- Magglio Ordonez!

BlueSkyLA
4 years 10 months ago

What’s Kuroda doing on this list? Even as “the best of a mediocre bunch” of starting pitchers, he seems oddly misplaced. Anybody putting up the kind of numbers he has over the last three seasons is at least a borderline ace. He doesn’t do it in spectacular style, but he gets the job done. Maybe it’s a good thing he’s evidently flying under the radar — gives the Dodgers a better chance of signing him again.

4 years 10 months ago

This is a list of right handed Free Agent starting pitchers. Why wouldn’t Kuroda be on the list?
You can rest assured that he is not under anyone’s radar. Either he or Pavano are the premier RHP on the free agent market.