The free agent market for right-handed starters features an array of mediocrity. Let's break it down.
The Best Available
Five healthy right-handed starters jump out from this year's free agent class: Carl Pavano, Bronson Arroyo, Jake Westbrook, Jon Garland, and Hiroki Kuroda. Arroyo is expected to be retained by the Reds, however. All five pitched 195+ innings, with Pavano actually tallying 227 including the playoffs. Pavano also leads free agent righties in innings per start by a wide margin at 6.91. As a Type A free agent, he'll likely carry the added cost of a draft pick.
Out of this group no one posted an ERA above Westbrook's 4.22, but Baseball Prospectus' cool SIERA stat suggests no one deserved one below 4.00 except Kuroda. Aside from Arroyo, they're all groundballers. Kuroda is the only thing close to a strikeout pitcher here, and his control and groundball rate were strong too. Though he turns 36 in February, Kuroda is my pick from this group. They're all capable innings eaters, though.
Teams willing to spend $8MM+ per year on one of these guys should look at Japanese righty Hisashi Iwakuma. He may require a $16MM posting fee plus a contract, but he's only 30 and had pretty good numbers in Japan this year.
Back-End Rotation Types
Rodrigo Lopez, Kevin Millwood, Dave Bush, Jeremy Bonderman, and Freddy Garcia profile as 4.75 ERA, back-end rotation types. Lopez and Millwood can chew up innings better than the others. All five are prone to the longball.
Bounceback Candidates
Javier Vazquez, Kevin Correia, Aaron Harang, and Rich Harden are a year removed from useful seasons. All four had attractive strikeout rates as starters this year. Correia, with a 48.9% groundball rate, could be a sleeper.
Injured In 2010
Vicente Padilla (forearm) and Brad Penny (back) had strong but abbreviated seasons. Brandon Webb (shoulder), Justin Duchscherer (hip), and Chris Young (shoulder) barely pitched at all. Many millions will be guaranteed to these guys in hopes of catching lightning in a bottle.
Non-Tender Candidates
Kyle Davies, Brian Bannister, Jeff Karstens, Dustin Moseley, John Maine, Sergio Mitre, and Brandon McCarthy are candidates to be cut loose next month by their teams. They've all had their moments.
Outside The Box Options
Pedro Martinez and Braden Looper sat out the 2010 season; perhaps they could still help at the back-end of an NL rotation. Koji Uehara spent the year as a reliever but would be an interesting starting candidate if he could stay healthy.
Fighting For Innings
Jeff Suppan, Todd Wellemeyer, Brian Moehler, Ian Snell, and Micah Owings will have to battle for opportunities and will have to be open to the bullpen or minor leagues.
Summary
As always, there's a handful of pitchers coming off solid seasons and a larger group of injured or ineffective hurlers.
Calling Pavano healthy feels insulting =P
Man, I’d hate to have to commit millions of dollars to that underwhelming bunch. I don’t like Garland and would avoid him, but Arroyo, Kuroda, Westbrook, and Pavano are good enough to be solid #3’s in a rotation. If you expect them to be better than that (and pay them to more than a 3), I think they’ll disappoint. I like Vazquez, but in a low pressure environment (certainly no where in the AL East). See if he gets his velocity and stuff back. Other than those names, I think you’d do more harm than good in signing any of the names listed. Trade market is the place to go.
In order: Lee, Pavano, Kuroda, Westbrook, trade.
Maybe take a flier on Webb, or Padilla, but if they can’t do that, I’d just as soon bring back Bonderman. Much better to go hard after a trade for one of the G Men. Greinke, Garza, Guthrie, and throw in Gio Gonzalez just because Beaneball insists on trading every good player before he has to pay them.
Bondo desn’t deserve a mlb contract. he was awful.
Jeff Karstens better not be cut. He was arguably the Pirates’ best starter until they got McDonald.
Really? I know Ohlendorf has been injured but I’d think he is.
It’s only speculation on my part so maybe they’re not even considering it.
What about Erik Bedard? Even though he’ll more than likely accept his player option.
When did Bedard start pitching right-handed?
Look for the big fish missing from this list to go 22-4, 2.43 ERA and win the Cy Young.
Yes, that man is Jamie Moyer.
Jamie Moyer isn’t missing from the list unless he decided to start throwing right handed.
He might throw faster right handed lol
You haven’t seen his mock HOF plaque on ESPN? He switches to righty this year.
Ok i just saw it lol. I get it now.
Funny how Pavano led the league in innings after ripping off the Yankees for 4 years with buttock and assorted *injuries*
I know, its hysterical.
And to think that he turned down more money from the Tigers to play for New York. Tsk, Tsk, Tsk. Well, at least the Tigers landed a nice consolation prize- Magglio Ordonez!
What’s Kuroda doing on this list? Even as “the best of a mediocre bunch” of starting pitchers, he seems oddly misplaced. Anybody putting up the kind of numbers he has over the last three seasons is at least a borderline ace. He doesn’t do it in spectacular style, but he gets the job done. Maybe it’s a good thing he’s evidently flying under the radar — gives the Dodgers a better chance of signing him again.
This is a list of right handed Free Agent starting pitchers. Why wouldn’t Kuroda be on the list?
You can rest assured that he is not under anyone’s radar. Either he or Pavano are the premier RHP on the free agent market.