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Predicting Free Agent Destinations: Polishuk Wins
Back on November 10th, MLBTR writers Steve Adams, Mark Polishuk, Ben Nicholson-Smith, and Mike Axisa joined me in an attempt to predict destinations for my top 50 free agents. As expected, the best of us still batted under .300, even with gimmes like Mariano Rivera and Derek Jeter in the mix. On 18 of the 50 players, at least one of us guessed correctly, including impressive picks for Orlando Hudson, J.J. Putz, Derrek Lee, Joaquin Benoit, Kevin Correia, Yorvit Torrealba, Juan Uribe, and Andy Pettitte.
Our winner was Mark Polishuk, with 12 out of 50 - a .240 batting average. Mark's especially shrewd picks for Lee, Benoit, Correia, and Torrealba pushed him to the top. Here are the correct picks from each MLBTR writer.
- Mark Polishuk (12) - Victor Martinez, Mariano Rivera, Derek Jeter, Carl Pavano, Jake Westbrook, Aubrey Huff, Jim Thome, Magglio Ordonez, Derrek Lee, Joaquin Benoit, Kevin Correia, Yorvit Torrealba
- Steve Adams (11) - Victor Martinez, Mariano Rivera, Paul Konerko, Derek Jeter, Jake Westbrook, Aubrey Huff, Jim Thome, Magglio Ordonez, Orlando Hudson, J.J. Putz, Kerry Wood
- Tim Dierkes (10) - Victor Martinez, Mariano Rivera, Paul Konerko, Derek Jeter, Carl Pavano, Jake Westbrook, Aubrey Huff, Juan Uribe, Andy Pettitte, Kerry Wood
- Ben Nicholson-Smith (9) - Mariano Rivera, Paul Konerko, Derek Jeter, Carl Pavano, Jake Westbrook, Aubrey Huff, Jim Thome, Kevin Correia, Kerry Wood
- Mike Axisa (6) - Mariano Rivera, Derek Jeter, Jake Westbrook, Jim Thome, Magglio Ordonez, J.J. Putz
Of the top five free agents - Cliff Lee, Carl Crawford, Adrian Beltre, Jayson Werth, and Adam Dunn - none of us had a correct pick. It's safe to say this was an offseason full of surprising signings. Next time we'll try to get the entire writing team involved, and also give you a chance to make your picks.
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