Predicting Free Agent Destinations: Polishuk Wins

Back on November 10th, MLBTR writers Steve Adams, Mark Polishuk, Ben Nicholson-Smith, and Mike Axisa joined me in an attempt to predict destinations for my top 50 free agents.  As expected, the best of us still batted under .300, even with gimmes like Mariano Rivera and Derek Jeter in the mix.  On 18 of the 50 players, at least one of us guessed correctly, including impressive picks for Orlando Hudson, J.J. Putz, Derrek Lee, Joaquin Benoit, Kevin Correia, Yorvit Torrealba, Juan Uribe, and Andy Pettitte.

Our winner was Mark Polishuk, with 12 out of 50 – a .240 batting average.  Mark's especially shrewd picks for Lee, Benoit, Correia, and Torrealba pushed him to the top.  Here are the correct picks from each MLBTR writer.

Of the top five free agents – Cliff Lee, Carl Crawford, Adrian Beltre, Jayson Werth, and Adam Dunn – none of us had a correct pick.  It's safe to say this was an offseason full of surprising signings.  Next time we'll try to get the entire writing team involved, and also give you a chance to make your picks.


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34 Comments on "Predicting Free Agent Destinations: Polishuk Wins"


Threat_Level_RedSox
4 years 5 months ago

Pretty crazy off season all together, Beltre and Lee were probably the biggest surprise’s.

start_wearing_purple
start_wearing_purple
4 years 5 months ago

Beltre was no where near the surprise that Lee and Werth were.

Threat_Level_RedSox
4 years 5 months ago

Given the nationals pursuit of Teixeira the Werth to the nationals was atleast feasible, the contract was more of a surprise then the actual signing.

start_wearing_purple
start_wearing_purple
4 years 5 months ago

Good point. But if you’re going to throw that kind of money around then at least try to throw it at Crawford or Lee. Crawford probably couldn’t have gotten more than $126M if Werth hadn’t already signed for that price.

Just saying when I think guys who should get 9-digit contracts, Jayson Werth never came to mind.

4 years 5 months ago

I’m still just shaking my head at the Jayson Werth signing, I mean the guy has never drove in 100 runs in a season before. Michael Cuddyer has put up better numbers then this guy. Just the stupidest possible way to spend their money.

iheartyourfart
4 years 5 months ago

how about citi field?

inleylandwetrust
4 years 5 months ago

While the Nats definitely committed too much in both years and money to Werth, Cuddyer is no where close to his level whatsoever. You probably meant that tongue-in-cheek but in case you weren’t, you are 100% wrong.

4 years 5 months ago

They absolutely are comparable in terms of numbers. Jayson Werth is a bigger name because he played on a big stage and was in a World Series.

inleylandwetrust
4 years 5 months ago

Ohhh boy, here we go.

WAR the past 3 seasons:

Werth: 5.0 (2010) 4.9 (2009) 5.1 (2008) TOTAL: 15.0

Cuddyer: .4 (2010, and yes that is .4, i did not make a typo) 2.6 (2009), and il be generous and discount his 2008 season where he played half the year and produced a WAR of ZERO, and il give his 2007 WAR total of 2.6 TOTAL: 5.6

So as you can see, it is not even remotely close. Enough said.

But I’m going to say more!

wOBA the past 3 season:

Werth: .397 (2010), .382 (2009), .382 (2008)

Cuddyer: .329 (2010), .370 (2009), .349 (2007, again il skip ’08 due to injury)

Don’t let Werth’s terrible contract trick you into thinking he’s a terrible player. Cuddyer can’t even hold Werth’s jockstrap. Oh nooo but I forgot, Werth never has driven in 100 RBI OMGZ…

Good day to you sir.

4 years 5 months ago

I have some cool ideas for a reader contest regarding picking destinations for the top 50. But it is fairly elaborate and we have to start work on it now!

JacksTigers
4 years 5 months ago

So… Umm…. What is it?

4 years 5 months ago

Whoever gets the most picks right gets to join your team as a Baseball Gypsy?

Martin M.
4 years 5 months ago

BIG BAD DUNN will rule this season!!! Trust me!

Pawsdeep
4 years 5 months ago

In that ballpark he will do very well hitting for power but you will see an increasing number of K’s from him against American league pitching.

He may have a “catch 22″ year….

JacksTigers
4 years 5 months ago

I don’t think he will hit any more than 40 this year. He played with the Reds in a small ballpark and did the same thing with them as he did with Washington. I don’t care if he’s playing in a toddler park or a national park, he’s gonna hit 40.

PostMoBills
4 years 5 months ago

So Tim, where did you think Thome would end up? You were the only person that missed him being a MLBTR sweep along with Jeter and Rivera. Rangers?

4 years 5 months ago

I had the Rays. I figured more playing time, similar money with them, but a lot of November theories don’t pan out.

0bsessions
4 years 5 months ago

The link is, literally, the very first word in the article. He picked the Rays.

PostMoBills
4 years 5 months ago

I missed it. Please accept my humble apologies :(

inleylandwetrust
4 years 5 months ago

This was a great offseason no doubt. Just about everyone had Lee pegged a Ranger or Yankee, Crawford an Angel, and Soriano an Angel as well. Werth looked like perhaps he was going to Boston, and I assumed if Texas missed Lee they would no doubt acquire Greinke or Garza.

start_wearing_purple
start_wearing_purple
4 years 5 months ago

Yeah a lot of twists. No one expected Lee to be a Phillie, the only people who called Crawford to the Sox were called nuts, no one expected the Nats to sign a 9-digit contract, no one predicted the Angels would spend small on FA… while taking on a lot of salary.

I think the only major FA I got right was Martinez to the Tigers.

HerbertAnchovy
4 years 5 months ago

Agreed. I also wasn’t expecting the Yankees to be picking up bottom of the barrell pitchers either.

Pawsdeep
4 years 5 months ago

That was one of the few things I had right…

Once I saw petite wasn’t coming back, I figured they would be hurting for pitching because of the slim market for quality starters.

0bsessions
4 years 5 months ago

I think I personally called a total of maybe six, including the gimmes:

Jeter, Pettitte, Rivera, Martinez, Konerko and Ordonez.

4 years 5 months ago

For the record, I never in a million years thought Cliff Lee would go back to Philly but I was ALWAYS 100% positive he wouldn’t sign with the Yankees. I always knew he didn’t wanna play for them.

goner
4 years 5 months ago

I don’t know which was more surprising… that Kevin Correia was ranked among the top 50 free agents, or that 11 other guys were ranked behind Correia (who was #39).

At least the Pirates didn’t sign Kevin Millwood.

4 years 5 months ago

The biggest surprise for me was the Crawford signing. It was a slam dunk that the Angels would sign him and if not then the Yankees would swoop in. Totally unexpected.

Jays All The Way
4 years 5 months ago

At first when it said among Marks correct picks was Lee I was baffled that he would have been able to predict Cliff Lee becoming Philly, then soon realized that it was Derreck lee

goner
4 years 5 months ago

But at least the Angels landed Vernon Wells!

4 years 5 months ago

Who knows, maybe it will turn out to be a good thing. That might propel them to make a legit run at Pujols next offseason. Maybe even CC Sabithia too.

airohpue13
4 years 5 months ago

Did you do that on purpose? How could Lee be the biggest surprise by a wide margin, followed closely by Werth?

Pawsdeep
4 years 5 months ago

And what a consolation prize that one was…..

0bsessions
4 years 5 months ago

Time travel.

JacksTigers
4 years 5 months ago

That’s like saying an airplane flew right over my house and landed in my backyard.