Mets, Niese On The Verge Of Extension

5:08pm: Niese's contract extension would be for five years, a source confirmed to Mike Puma of the New York Post (via Twitter).  The two sides are still discussing dollars and a deal could be reached "quickly".

4:10pm: While nothing is official yet, the contract has a chance to be completed before Opening Day, a source with "direct knowledge" of the talks tells Andy Martino of the New York Daily News (on Twitter).

3:48pm: Brian Costa of the Wall Street Journal tweets that the paramaters for the contract are in place, but that it'd be wrong to suggest that it's a done deal. Costa does say that a deal is "likely," however. Rubin echoes the sentiment in a followup tweet.

3:38pm: The Mets have agreed to a long-term deal with Jonathon Niese, according to ESPN's Adam Rubin. The 25-year-old left-hander is represented by O'Connell Sports Management.

Rubin writes that Niese's contract is believed to be similar to the five-year, $28.5MM extension that Derek Holland signed with the Rangers last month. As Rubin points out, the two have similar service time to date. Niese, like Holland, was already under team control for four more seasons.

Niese posted a 4.40 ERA in 157 1/3 innings of work last season with solid rate stats of 7.9 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, and a 51.5% groundball rate. He was the victim of some bad luck, as evidenced by an above average .333 BABIP and an abnormally low 67% strand rate. Stats such as FIP (3.36) and SIERA (3.42) suggest that his ERA could have been up to a full run lower.

The deal would likely represent the largest contract extension of general manager Sandy Alderson's tenure, as MLBTR's Extension Tracker shows. Previously, Alderson has agreed on smaller extensions with both Tim Byrdak and R.A. Dickey.


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43 Comments on "Mets, Niese On The Verge Of Extension"


diehardmets
3 years 4 months ago

Awesome news. Now extend Ike, Murph, and Duda and we might have a nice core to build around. 

andrewyf
3 years 4 months ago

If ‘nice’ means mediocre and ‘build around’ means that those players need to be supplemented by $20M/year superstars for the team to even be able to contend, sure. Is Niese an okay pitcher with some mid-rotation upside? Sure.

But let’s get real here. With the ever-present Phillies, the Marlins’ new shiny payroll, Atlanta’s always-great farm system, and the Nationals actually having a fantastic core to build around, the Mets aren’t going to be a winning team for a looooong time. 

And it’s sad, because baseball is that much more fun for NY fans when there’s two real MLB teams in the city instead of just one. But it seems every division needs its Baltimore Orioles, and unfortunately for Mets fans…

3 years 4 months ago

Niese has two full seasons of 3.8 and 3.26 xFIP’s as a 24 and 25 year old, and has suffered from unlucky strand rates and babips in both seasons.  I’m pretty sure this is the exact type of player to extend and build around.  Unless Jon Lester, Ricky Romero, Yovani Gallardo, and all those other 5y/30M guys aren’t quality young pitchers to build around either…

MB923
3 years 4 months ago

Except Lester, Romero and Gallardo all have had good seasons under their belt. Niese doesn’t have any (yet). Please do not compare Niese to them. 

Career ERA+’s
Lester – 128
Romero- 119
Gallardo-113

Niese- 88

3 years 4 months ago

compare their FIP and xFIP in their first 2 seasons.

MB923
3 years 4 months ago

I don’t use FIP and xFIP. 

guydavis
3 years 4 months ago

 At all? It might not be an all encompassing indicator of a pitchers talent but it certainly tells a great deal. You should look into that.

MB923
3 years 4 months ago

I know what it tells, but I also know what it doesn’t tell (no stat tells it all of course but I don’t like that it leaves out hits against except HR)

Also it’s funny when people say FIP tells a pitcher does without defense, except they seem to forget Innings Pitched is a stat in FIP, which unless you find a miracle pitcher who strikes out every batter for all of his outs, defense IS a factor.

3 years 4 months ago

Then don’t talk to me anymore.  What do you expect when he’s playing for the Mets?

MB923
3 years 4 months ago

So I shouldn’t talk to you unless I follow a saber stat? Yet you decide to compare Niese to some of the best pitchers in baseball?

3 years 4 months ago

Well if you think ERA+ determines quality of pitcher, yes. But it’s more a problem of “I don’t use that stat” being a pretty terrible basis for an argument. If you choose to cite any stats, you should probably use the ones that have the most context to them.

MB923
3 years 4 months ago

So you want me to list every pitching stat there is? I can use regular ERA if you want. Niese has the worst ERA out if all of them despite pitching in by far and away the most pitcher friendly park out of all of them, not to mention his 4.75 career ERA on the road

3 years 4 months ago

I used FIP because ERA sucks.

MB923
3 years 4 months ago

And I use ERA because IMO, FIP sucks.

BrocNessMonster
3 years 4 months ago

Who are you comparing Niese to again?

3 years 4 months ago

Well nobody until we get the terms of the extension, but his peripherals compare really well with Gio Gonzalez.  Gio signed one of those 5 year deals, but he’s a super-2, which inflates what would be his last pre-arb and his 3 arb seasons.  I wouldn’t be surprised if the Mets get a nice deal on Niese.

diehardmets
3 years 4 months ago

Let’s hold up a second. I love Niese, and I think he has great upside still, but he’s in the tier below all those guys you just mentioned. 

Lastings
3 years 4 months ago

Yeah, well the great thing about baseball is that games are not played on paper…

Tommet
3 years 4 months ago

looks like you should think before you speak… lastings just told u off then alex grady and now its my turn… the phillies are old and injured with absolutely no core to build around, the marlins look good on paper just like the eagles and the heat and look how their seasons went, the braves are okay they’re getting old, and the nationals got some good pick-ups and again they look good on paper… The mets are dealing with the lowest payroll they ever had this decade and they are making fine adjustments to it… this extension is the beginning of a new era LETS GO METS!

andrewyf
3 years 4 months ago

I feel like I just listened to two minutes of Mike Francesca

Metsfan199
3 years 4 months ago

That’s really funny.

Tommet
3 years 4 months ago

your point…?

kevmill21
3 years 4 months ago

i take that to mean the only brave you know of is chipper jones?

Tommet
3 years 4 months ago

no actually tim hudson is getting old as well as mccann and hinske

3 years 4 months ago

You named one starter (out of five), one position player (out of nine), one bench guy, and one guy who’s actually not that old (McCann).  I think your point is pretty inaccurate.

Hudson is the only pitcher over 30 (not counting the two long relievers).  Chipper and Uggla are the only starters over 30 (the bench is fairly old though).  Hell, half the roster is made up of guys who aren’t even arbitration eligible yet.

Tommet
3 years 4 months ago

Yeah half the roster isn’t arbitration eligible but those guys won’t play or affect the team much in my opinion the braves are not old but getting there with lets say 1/3 of their players I’m not saying they are all old guys with no gas left I’m just saying they’re getting up there in age 

diehardmets
3 years 4 months ago

Oh, trust me, I am well aware of the hole the Mets are in. Even once the Phillies and Marlins begin to fade in the next few years (I don’t think the Marlins new willingness to spend will last) the Braves and Nats plethora of prospects will power them to the top. But having those four locked up covers the right side pretty solidly for not a whole lot and provides a good starter to slot behind the staff ace (hopefully Wheeler, Mejia, and/or Harvey). They won’t have a great shot for 3-5 years, but they could be good then if handled correctly.

tacko
3 years 4 months ago

The Phillies are anything but ever-present with their aging roster and depleted farm system. The Mets can become competitive within a season or two for the same reasons the Marlins can. They have a solid farm with young MLB-ready talent. They also have the ability to tack-on payroll within the next few seasons now that the Madoff trustee was been settled with. 

And leave that Yankee high-horse attitude out of this. The Mets are nothing like the Orioles. They have talent coming from their farms and have MUCH higher potential financial revenue than them. There’s a reason the Mets are ranked as one of the top 5 most valued baseball franchises.

MetsMagic
3 years 4 months ago

I hate to be this kind of guy but in the long run, I’d take the financial upside of an NY franchise + an improving farm system and front office over whatever the Phillies and Marlins will have.

I know how good the other teams are, but the Marlins showed how throwing money around can change perceptions in a huge hurry. 

3 years 4 months ago

Hope they can also extend Ike.

3 years 4 months ago

one at a time.

3 years 4 months ago

Balls.  Wanted him in TOR.

BrocNessMonster
3 years 4 months ago

Free agency is going to be a thing of the past now that every team is on the extension band wagon.

BrocNessMonster
3 years 4 months ago

Well, put me down for when the Mets get a good team as saying “well your Mets look good on paper…”

formerdraftpick
3 years 4 months ago

I read the title of the article to quickly and originally thought it read “Mets, Niese On The Verge of Extinction.”  I could picture the Mets being on the verge of extinction from the way their finances are run, but Niese on the otherhand seems to be far from extinction.

greggofboken
3 years 4 months ago

I’m not completely sold on this, when in effect this just buys an extra year of control for a pitcher who has yet to last a full year in the majors w/o either losing effectiveness or health at the end.  Yes, as a servicable if unspectacular pitcher, if Niese doesn’t derail you may profit from it at the end.  To me, that seems an uncertain gamble.  Personally, I’d have preferred to see some more durability/stability before taking this step, even if that meant a higher price tag.  I don’t think it’s a horrendous deal, but I’m left with the questions “Why now…and why Niese?”

MetsMagic
3 years 4 months ago

I’m glad to see this get done. I honestly think this will turn out to be a bargain; the kid has a lot of talent and the advanced statistics support it. He’s been working on his offspeed pitches this winter and I think he’s up for a huge breakout. Even if he doesn’t improve, as long as his conditioning is sound, it wouldn’t be a drastic overpay. 

FarmerErnie
3 years 4 months ago

Everyone is so down on the Mets, for no reason at all. They’re on the upswing and they have as good a young core as any in baseball. 

3 years 3 months ago

Thats good to hear as im a Jonathan Niese fan!

tacko
3 years 4 months ago

Guess you don’t pay attention to anything past wins/losses and ERA.

MetsMagic
3 years 4 months ago

I agree. Besides his stuff, stats, age, and makeup, Pelfrey and Niese are the same exact pitcher

Tommet
3 years 4 months ago

Actually he’s much better than Pelfrey… He is younger and progressing whereas Pelf never progressed and in my opinion never will progress 

MetsMagic
3 years 4 months ago

You should know, that’s about the only thing that Washington baseball has done since Joe Cronin was the shortstop.