Texas Not Likely To Offer Hamilton Long-Term Deal

The Rangers aren’t prepared to make Josh Hamilton a long-term contract offer when he hits free agency this offseason, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports. Instead, the Rangers will let the five-time All-Star listen to other teams’ offers before determining their next step.

GM Jon Daniels confirmed today that the Rangers won't make Hamilton an offer during their exclusive negotiating period, Anthony Andro of FOXSportsSouthwest.com reports (Twitter links). Hamilton could still re-sign with Texas, Daniels said.

Rangers people don’t see the point in offering a contract Hamilton would surely decline, Heyman writes. The 31-year-old has said he’ll give the Rangers the chance to match any offer he gets, but those offers might be beyond Texas’ spending limit. While Hamilton appears to be seeking a contract that pays him like an elite player, the Rangers aren’t comfortable offering a long-term deal worth ‘huge money.’

The Rangers would like to keep Hamilton at their price and contract length. However, Heyman’s sources have a hard time seeing the Rangers going much beyond four years. The Yankees, Red Sox and Dodgers aren’t expected to pursue Hamilton, who hasn’t had contract talks with the Rangers for months. The sides aren’t likely to talk until after Hamilton hits free agency and gets a sense of his options.

Just 27% of 14,000 respondents to a recent MLBTR poll expect Hamilton to re-sign with the Rangers. He's coming off of a season in which he hit 43 home runs and posted a .285/.354/.577 batting line in 636 plate appearances.


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160 Comments on "Texas Not Likely To Offer Hamilton Long-Term Deal"


2 years 10 months ago

What are the chances that Hamilton winds up with a team who is in desperate need of power, and an OF. I could see a one year, two year contract with the NY Mets to be equally beneficial for both sides. The Mets need a legitimate OF and power, someone to help protect Wright & Davis. Seems like a logical fit to me.

Stonehands
2 years 10 months ago

That won’t happen for a couple of reasons, the Mets have already said that they are not going to spend on any big ticket free agents, so that takes them out of the hunt already…And the 2nd reason is that Hamilton is 31, now is his time to maximize his value on a long term deal, because on a 2 year deal, that takes away his last 2 years of his prime and the short of a long term deal goes out the window

$1529282
2 years 10 months ago

Why on Earth would Hamilton settle for a one- or two-year deal with the Mets when he’ll be getting offers for five and probably six years?

Luke Rambo
2 years 10 months ago

yeah he can’t take a 1-2 year deal with all the issues he has had… plus his numbers dropped waaaaaay down after him starting off like a house on fire so you never know if it will continue… has to take long term deal at 31 years old…

Lunchbox45
2 years 10 months ago

his numbers dropped way down only because his 1st half stats were barry bonds like.. he wasnt as bad as people make it sound it the second half. he was still well above league average for a CF

GasLampGuru
2 years 10 months ago

He’s unlikely to play CF with his new team. They’ll want to limit the amount of ground he needs to cover and keep him healthy. He’ll probably be in LF wherever he winds up.

Lunchbox45
2 years 10 months ago

his numbers still play in LF, and his defense would probably be better

2 years 10 months ago

I’d hate to be the team that offers him more than 3 years.

Lunchbox45
2 years 10 months ago

hes not 38 …

Gumby65
2 years 10 months ago

…which scares Sabean away

thomstitute
2 years 10 months ago

I don’t know whether to laugh or cry, but this comment is 100% accurate

melonis_rex
2 years 10 months ago

Barry Zito and Aaron Rowand say hi.

bonds2425
2 years 10 months ago

I Lol’d from this :)

2 years 10 months ago

How is this beneficial for both sides? Mets likely won’t be competitive next year and Hamilton is NEVER going to take less than five years, minimum.

My pick? Orioles, 6 years, $130 million.

sojuboi
2 years 10 months ago

1-2 year contract? I actually lol’d

Guest
2 years 10 months ago

I could conceivably imagine Hamilton settling for a 1yr/$35m deal if someone was crazy enough to make that offer.

Lunchbox45
2 years 10 months ago

given his injuries there’s no way he settles for a 1 year

sojuboi
2 years 10 months ago

REALLY? I think a lot of teams would do 1yr/$35m. Hamilton will turn that down in a heartbeat though. You have your thought process backwards there.

Lunchbox45
2 years 10 months ago

this deserves a minimum of 50 thumbs down

Slopeboy
2 years 10 months ago

Mets are in a holding pattern concerning payroll this year. Their plan is to buy out Bay and Santana, if they can’t move them mid-season. Even if Hamilton were to accept a 2 year deal, it would not be less than for $20 MM per.
Mets are not going there.

stl_cards16
2 years 10 months ago

How do you “buy out” a player in baseball?

Slopeboy
2 years 10 months ago

Bay and Santana both have vesting options for 2014.
Bay has a $17MM Vesting option or a $3MM Buyout.
Santana has a $25MM vesting option or a $5.5MM Buyout.
Mets have included those buyouts into their payroll for 2013.

johnsilver
2 years 10 months ago

Also would be hard to rationalize any slugger taking a 1-2 year deal at such a pitching friendly stadium.

Why Hamilton, even if he got desperate for some reason would consider SF, NYM, Seattle and a couple of other horrid locales/teams that could have the extra money is beyond wild.

Baltimore, back to Texas even both fit better as examples of extreme hitters parks and also seem to both be competitive, even if he had to take a little less to go to one of those 2 the numbers he could/would put up would make it much easier to secure a longer term deal than having to perform at a place where HR go to die, like Safeco. Just ask Adrian Beltre exactly how awful places like Safeco can affect your overall numbers.

2 years 10 months ago

And I successfully caused an outrage. Love it.

dieharddodgerfan
2 years 10 months ago

I think Hamilton gets 5 guaranteed years max.

All the talk of Hamilton getting a 7 or 8 yr deal is folly. There are no big market teams with an OF need to pay Hamilton that kind of money.

I think he could very likely end up back in Texas on a 4 yr deal.

Gator4444
2 years 10 months ago

If the Yanks get bounced by Baltimore I can see Hank going all out for him.

dieharddodgerfan
2 years 10 months ago

I thought the Yankees were trying to keep payroll under $189 mill for 2014. I don’t know if the Steinbrenners want to go big on a contract on Hamilton. He’s pretty risky.

2 years 10 months ago

Not sure that’s possible. If NYY picks up the options on Granderson and Cano, let Swisher go, have to sign or replace Kuroda, Mariano, Martin, and Soriano, they still haven’t upgraded anything and aren’t under the tax line. I don’t see them getting under the line, but don’t see them going after Hamilton, either.

slider32
2 years 10 months ago

The Yanks could let Swisher and Granderson go, resign Kuroda for one year and sign Hamilton. I thought the 189 cap was for 2014.

burnboll
2 years 10 months ago

How do Yankees sign Hamilton, yet stay under 189 mil? Give us the aritmethics on that.

LazerTown
2 years 10 months ago

It’s possible, they are about $20M over right now. (although in reality their salaries are much higher because lowe/ichiro are both making $15M+)
Mariano probably retires after 2013 ($15M)
Soriano gone after this or next year ($14M)
Swish is making ($10M) but if they sign hamilton you can subtract that.
Granderson is a canidate to leave ($13M)
Garcia is certainly gone ($4M)
Thats $56M right there.
I think that they will at least first check in on other options before hamilton. See what hunter/swisher are demanding. Also check in on Ichiro is all other options are too expensive.

burnboll
2 years 10 months ago

Would you rather have Hamilton than Swisher though?

Swisher will get similar money that he’s getting now. You think Yanks should sign another big time player other than Robbie Cano? I digress.

LazerTown
2 years 10 months ago

Swish is making $10.25M right now. It’s definite that he will be getting more money, it is just how much money. I don’t think that the Yankees will be huge players on Hamilton, you can guarantee that they check in with him, and have a meeting. Anytime you have the type of money the yankees have and a player like hamilton is availble, and you have room you at least do some negociating. I really wouldn’t mind having hamilton on the team as long as the contract is not terrible. Being a GM you can’t decide on only resigning swisher, you have to keep your options open, and play the field.

burnboll
2 years 10 months ago

Maybe Swisher will get greedy. But that will open the door for Yankees to look into other options, like Hamilton. If Swisher wants similar annual average money, but a 4-5 year deal, than he should get it. But if he is looking to increase the yearly salary, to upwards 15 mil, then Yankees definitely should offer Hamilton a 1-2 year deal at around 23-25 mil.

hiflyer000
2 years 10 months ago

The Phillies have 2 spots open in their OF, and I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see them go hard after Hamilton and try and trade for a cheap cost controlled OF to fill the other spot.

dieharddodgerfan
2 years 10 months ago

You think the Phillies would be interested in Ethier to fill one of those spots? Just curious.

lakersdodgersyankees4life
2 years 10 months ago

we just signed him to a deal to avoid dealing with FA. Why would we trade him?

burnboll
2 years 10 months ago

Andre Ethier is a cheap cost controlled OF in your world?

dieharddodgerfan
2 years 10 months ago

LOL, well he’s cost-controlled, but maybe not cheap.

At $17 mill/yr, he’s certainly not cheap. In that ball park, though, he’s probably a 30 HR hitter.

burnboll
2 years 10 months ago

Sorry for being offensive. I apologize.

MadmanTX
2 years 10 months ago

I wish you were right, but you just know that some owner is going to want to make a splash and offer Hamilton a 7-10 year deal that he would sign in a heartbeat.

burnboll
2 years 10 months ago

Wouldn’t that owner go for Justin Upton instead though?

I would rather have Texas try to trade for Justin Upton rather than go for Hamilton.

And lord knows Justin Upton isn’t the ideal character either.

I am really intrigued with what’s gonna happen with Hamilton this coming off-season.

He probably be best off with a multi-year deal for lesser money with the Rangers, but question is: When is he becoming too much of a distraction for the Rangers? I don’t think we should read too much into that dropped fly ball, if he had vision problems, that explains both his hitting issues, as well as why he dropped it.

But Hamilton can forget about any type of 30 mil a year type of deals.

A fair deal, considering Hamiltons issues, is 70-80 mil for six or seven years with the Rangers.

Some would say that it’s very team friendly, but with Hamilton’s issues, you don’t know if he’s gonna be productive beyond even next season.

Phil Merkel
2 years 10 months ago

Hamilton needs a low cost, 3-4 year highly incentive-laden contract to keep him motivated. AND, there should be some sort of out clause that precisely stipulates under what conditions the contract can be voided if he relapses. Additionally, there could be an option year added to the length if he’s a good boy and does well.

LazerTown
2 years 10 months ago

Hamilton is an elite player. When you trade for upton, you need to factor in that he is already at $13M aav, AND you have to give up 4 top prospects. That is a steep price, considering that Hamilton is still a better player.

sojuboi
2 years 10 months ago

I think Hamilton goes to SF.

northsfbay
2 years 10 months ago

No chance Hamilton goes to the Giants. The Giants said they want to build with the farm system and resign their own players and not sign big free agents. They said that big free agents will underperform at the end of their contracts.

seivemusic01
2 years 10 months ago

I think and use the word “think” loosely!! There is still a 50-50 chance he stays but really he’s more than likely gone. With that being said the sooner Texas cancels “The Josh Hamilton reality show” the sooner we can focus on the next world series. It’s a shame cause he was amazing but who ever gets him. No matter how spin it he like everybody is a gamble.

Runtime
2 years 10 months ago

Blue Jays!

Lunchbox45
2 years 10 months ago

no chance

go_jays_go
2 years 10 months ago

I’d rather grab Bourn before Hamilton.

2 years 10 months ago

Don’t forget the cubs!!!!

burnboll
2 years 10 months ago

Josh Hamilton would’ve been a perfect fit for Angels or Dodgers, but both teams are set. I see Miami, Detroit and Cubs(!) as the three frontrunners on Hamilton. As good as Hamilton is, he’s actually undervalued, which I think may tempt Theo to offer Hamilton a long term contract for lesser annual money.

MadmanTX
2 years 10 months ago

How do you define “undervalued”? Hamilton’s value is dictated as a balance between his on-field performance and his off-field behavior. Everybody accepts that Hamilton would have multi-Pujols level deals thrust at him right now…if…he kept himself in bible study every night.

burnboll
2 years 10 months ago

Yeah, you’re right… He’s probably correctly valued. I retract my statement. Good call bro!

2 years 10 months ago

Tigers aren’t likely to add another $ 20+ MM contract on top of Fielder, Cabrera, Verlander. Getting V Mart back, a corner OF is a need, but more likely a speed guy.

burnboll
2 years 10 months ago

Good point, I correct myself after you’re great observation! Thanks Patrick!

burnboll
2 years 10 months ago

Why are someone negative to me admitting that I was wrong? Common guys!!!

vtadave
2 years 10 months ago

That calls for a negative. :-)

Ausome7
2 years 10 months ago

Never doubt Little Caesars

LazerTown
2 years 10 months ago

I really don’t see any of those 3 teams jumping in. Marlins payroll jumped alot, but I don’t think they saw enough of a jump in attendance to create that ability to sign him. Detroit has a $133M payroll already while being in only a midmarket. Cubs still have a ways to go before they compete. I think theo/hoyer are going to take in the good draft picks for a few more years and then sign the free agents. If Hamilton signs a 5 year contract and it takes them 3 years to get competitive they wasted alot of money.

Ed Duffy
2 years 10 months ago

Miami? After this nightmare of a season after a winter of throwing money around like it was monopoly money? Doubt that.
Cubbies? Theo knows the Cubbies are along way away. So..no way.
Tigers? Not an offense problem there, and why pay big $$ for a LF, (Austin Jackson isn’t going anywhwere)…wrong again

burnboll
2 years 10 months ago

Yeah, both you and Lazertown are right man. I was totally off bro.

hiflyer000
2 years 10 months ago

I’m fully expecting a 7 year deal from Philly. Rube just has to get his white whale you know.

nm344
2 years 10 months ago

Name a position player free agent that Ruben has signed for more than 3 years. Yeah, though so.

burnboll
2 years 10 months ago

He did even worse. Signed Ryan Howard to a 5 year 125 million extension. Good job Rube. What did Ryan hit the first year of that glimmering contract? An epic .219(BA)/.295(OBP)/.423(SLG)/.718(OPS) slashline. An anemic 57 hits in 292 plate appearences. That 438 596 dollars. Per hit. Say what you want, but Rube knows to pay for his hits.

And, oh, a -1 WAR in 2012. Great. Just great.

nm344
2 years 10 months ago

Miss the part about free agent? And way to disect 2 months of a guy coming off major surgery. Very productive.

burnboll
2 years 10 months ago

Ryan was terrible last year too. As I started my commentary: “He did even worse” Meaning, that he did even worse than signing a free agent position player for a contract longer than 3 year. That’d be Ryan-Ho’s contract, bubba.

burnboll
2 years 10 months ago

Very true. It’s not even a question of if Hamilton signs with Phillies. Only when. Tragic, really.

2 years 10 months ago

Texas, Boston, New York, LA Dodgers, LA Angels are out. Any club that doesn’t want a $ 20 million contract on the books is out. I don’t see the Tigers adding a fourth one.

Chicago? Baltimore? St Louis? I don’t know.

stl_cards16
2 years 10 months ago

St. Louis? No chance at all.

baseball52
2 years 10 months ago

Nor with the Cubs. Hamilton is an awful day player, among other things. He makes the least amount of sense for the Cubs.

seivemusic01
2 years 10 months ago

You never know. God might tell him to retire 😉

Baseball Lifer
2 years 10 months ago

your right. It would also be the final chapter in his movie…

ctownboy
2 years 10 months ago

Houston Astros.

1) They need an established player with proven power.
2) Since they are moving to the AL, Hamilton can play the Outfield and then be DH when they want to rest him.
3) They would be signing him away from their rival Texas Rangers.
4) He would be a drawing card. I mean, if they are thinking about signing the clown, Roger Clemens then signing Hamilton would be an even better idea because he woudl draw people in AND be productive on the field.

GasLampGuru
2 years 10 months ago

Good luck with that. Why would a guy who has played in the WS two of the last three years go to a team in the midst of what looks to be a lengthy rebuilding process? Not gonna happen. Plus, the last time the Astros went after a big money free agent they were saddled with Carlos Lee – I’m guessing they’ll be gun shy about a deal for a high risk player like Hamilton when they have so little talent to put around him. Makes no sense when they’ve been shedding salary all season.

vtadave
2 years 10 months ago

Only way that happens is if the Astros insanely overpay. This means that if the Red Sox offered $150 million, the Astros would need to add another $50 million at least. Not sure they are in a position to do that.

LongTimeFan1
2 years 10 months ago

Highly doubtful he signs with a 100-loss team after going to the postseason 3 straight years.

burnboll
2 years 10 months ago

Would love to see Hamilton in Houston, but doubt it. They are in rebuild mode, and man have they done a great job so far. Doubt they will get a guy who’s in win now mode when the rest of the club is 3-4 years away from contending. Just sayin bro.

LongTimeFan1
2 years 10 months ago

Hamilton is a problem, a brewing headache despite the talent. Not only is he injury prone, but is also mentally troubled and seems to be slipping. I think the Rangers are handling his contract situation the right way, that they’re not going to allow themselves to be used, nor give him the upper hand.

MadmanTX
2 years 10 months ago

I agree. I said as much before. He is addiction prone as pointed out before: drugs, then alcohol, caffeine and tobacco. Enormous talent has been destroyed before by personal demons…too many ball players to mention.

Lunchbox45
2 years 10 months ago

He’s accumulated 25 WAR in 6 seasons, how is that destroyed talent.

he’s an amazing talent, so much so that early on he did everything in his power to squander his talents and still was able to come back and be an elite player.

Reality is, Josh Hamilton hasn’t done any illegal substances in over 7 years. Now all of a sudden he’s due for a relapse because he’s a free agent?

and spare me the, oh he slumped when we needed him. the rangers lost as a team, and if it wasn’t for josh’s unreal start, the A’s would have past them with 2 weeks to go in the season instead of the last day

vtadave
2 years 10 months ago

Agreed. I think he may have been referring to what he could have been had his demons not taken over.

Lunchbox45
2 years 10 months ago

he won an mvp 5 years removed from being a homeless drug addict.

vtadave
2 years 10 months ago

Yep….read the book. Just have to wonder how many MVP’s he’d have already had he not missed four years of professional ball. Just a great story and a great book.

burnboll
2 years 10 months ago

I think you’re correct. Despite all his talent, he’s becoming more and more of a burden for a team.

When he gets hots, nobody hits more homeruns. But then he gets cold, and he refuses to fix his problem.

withpower
2 years 10 months ago

His market is really unpredictable. I don’t know how many teams are going to even consider going to 5/$125MM [it only takes one], but if the bidding lands somewhere in the 3/$66MM range, or even 4/$76-80MM, then I can see the field of potential landing spots really opening up.

A lot of teams people are saying “No way” could jump in and go for it. His age gets a lot of play but there are quite a few elite hitters who stay productive into their early and mid thirties. Lance Berkman put up a 146 OPS+ from ages 32-35. A-Rod checks in at 129 for 32-36 [he’s had injury problems though, and has missed time]. Larry Walker 144 for 32-36. Going down to another tier of player, Reggie Sanders put up 111 for 32-37. Robin Ventura 107 for 32-34.

If some team thinks it’s going to get a few 40 HR seasons on a 3 or 4 year deal, they’re going to pull the trigger.

2 years 10 months ago

The problem for a player like Josh Hamilton really is staying healthy, which could affect the offers he receives.

MadmanTX
2 years 10 months ago

Lots of speculation by non-Rangers fans about a guy I saw play on a regular basis:
1)The Rangers are not OUT on Hamilton. They want to see where the market is, but if Hamilton’s agent comes back with mystery team offering 7 yrs/$27mil per…then the Rangers won’t match. Why should they? They’ll miss his bat, but a clubhouse cleanup may be in order with guys like Josh, Ian and MY being shown the door. We’ll see.
2)Hamilton won’t need to accept any 1-2 year deals from any club.
3)Hamilton’s numbers were very good for the year, but it’s deceiving if one considers his lackadaisical effort the last 1-2 weeks of the season when the Rangers were fighting for the pennant. A pennant drive is supposed to bring out exceptional player effort, but Hamilton nose-dived. Yes, he wasn’t the only Ranger doing so.

seivemusic01
2 years 10 months ago

Totally agreed Texas is doing exactly what they should do. See what the market value is on him then make a decision based on that. Apparently it is useless to predict what happens In baseball. The last two seasons “experts” predicted Texas to win it all. How did those predictions work out for ya? Everything will work out the WAY it’s supposed to work out.

burnboll
2 years 10 months ago

I was wrong, I will freely admit it. I think Texas was really close both times though. To get to the WS twice in a row ain’t too shabby if you know whatta mean.

2 years 10 months ago

I think Josh was still suffering from the condition that caused him to miss a few games a couple of weeks ago. I don’t think he ever fully recovered from that. I agree with what you say. I am hoping they can re-sign him for $23-$28 million per year for 4-5 years with the base really being closer to $20 with a ton if incentives that could easily push it to $24 million and possible all the way to $28 million. They also have to have an out if he has a major relapse.
I wouldn’t have any problem with them showing Ian and especially Young the door. They can take the manager with them.

Phil Merkel
2 years 10 months ago

I agree with you on Kinsler and Young. I think it is remotely possible that the Rangers might be able to unload Kinsler’s big contract for a starting pitcher or a good outfielder. You can add Cruz to that list also. Between Kinsler and Cruz, the Rangers could bring home some more pop if not a strong starting pitcher (David Price?????)

burnboll
2 years 10 months ago

The signed Kinsler this season so why and how would they be able to get him dealt?

Kinsler still has great upside, Michael Young however is gone, I agree with that sentiment. They just need to find some type of arrangement to make it look good for his departure.

Anyone else agree with me that Rangers should try at least a little bit (not a lot though) to keep Uehara? I think he was really good in the last part of the season, seemed like he finally settled in with the very tough environment of the Arlington ballpark.

Phil Merkel
2 years 10 months ago

I agree with you on Uehara. I think he provides a needed asset in the bullpen.

2 years 10 months ago

I love it when I hear folks say we can sign two players to replace Hamilton. They fail to consider the fact that if you do that then those two players not only have to replace Hamilton’s numbers they have to replace Hamilton and another player’s numbers as they would actually be replacing two players and not just Hamilton.
You simply cannot replace Josh Hamilton. If he goes to another team there will be a void in the Rangers lineup.

$22264602
2 years 10 months ago

You can in fact replace hamilton , Look at the Cardinals who avoided the albatross contract of Pujols and have seen no dip in production with essentially replacing him with Craig.

2 years 10 months ago

The Cardinals replaced in Pujols a guy who hit 29 HRs and had 99 RBI. Those guys are easier to replace than one who hits 43 HRs and had 128 RBI. That is a huge difference. Josh, despite the last game, also plays stellar defense and has a huge arm. He is not replacable.

vtadave
2 years 10 months ago

Hamilton was terrible defensively this year, admittedly likely because he was a LF in CF’s clothing. Anyone is replaceable, especially a 4.4 WAR guy. Put Kinsler in LF and Profar at 2B. Then you use the Hamilton money to beef up the pitching and perhaps sign or trade for a catcher.

2 years 10 months ago

He is not terrible defensively. Forget about WAR. What is it good for? Absolutely nothing. Use your eyes and not some made up stat from a stat geek. You can make all those moves you mentioned independent of the Hamilton signing or non-signing with the exception of the beefing up pitching. Let me know the specific pitcher and how much they will cost and then we can evaluate if it makes sense or not. Just saying beef up the pitching is easy to say, but give me specifics. The last time we threw money that we had because we didn’t sign someone else at pitching it turned out to be Chan Ho Park. Besides, even if you add some better pitching, without Hamilton then this club will lose a lot of 3-2 and 4-3 games. This team struggled down the stretch more in the area of hitting more than pitching. The offensive struggles this team has coincides with a Josh Hamilton slump or injury. That shows you how valuable he is when healthy and not slumping and he hasn’t shown the propensity to go into prolonged slumps before this season.

burnboll
2 years 10 months ago

Texas don’t need to add more pitching, they could use the money to sign Olt long term, IF he shows promise, the same goes for other junior players under control.

A guy like Profar should be signed for a deal until his 30th birthday IMO. Explore what it would take to sign Andrus until his 31st birthday.

The bigger question instead of Hamilton, who shouldn’t be signed, is actually IMO Napoli IMO. He’s a good clubhouse guy too, as well a guy who’ll play C and 1st base. If they let him go, they have Soto, who’s looking really promising.

vtadave
2 years 10 months ago

Olt will be making at or near the minimum for 3 years. No need to even consider it. Same with Profar.

burnboll
2 years 10 months ago

Bro, they probably have Profar under control for the next 5 years, but why not try to sign him right now until he’s 30? If they sign him in a few years that’ll likely cost them 20 mil a year.

2 years 10 months ago

I agree.

vtadave
2 years 10 months ago

No hurry considering they control him for 6 more years. What if they sign him to a 10 year $100 million deal and he turns out to be a bust by year three.

burnboll
2 years 10 months ago

That’s true. You’re correct. I change my mind. I was thinking about the Longoria deal that Tampa got done.

2 years 10 months ago

I agree about Napoli. There are so few catcher options aout there that they are jsut about forced to sign him. I disagree about Soto. He can’t throw runners out, he can’t block pitches in the dirt, and he can’t block the plate. He can’t hit at all. He is credited with working good with pitchers, but that is mainly conjecture. The same was said last season about Napoli. I hope Soto isn’t even on the team next year.

Phil Merkel
2 years 10 months ago

Offer Napoli a one-year deal loaded with incentives.

vtadave
2 years 10 months ago

Don’t call as stat “useless” just because you don’t understand it.Hamilton is fine defensively in LF, but he’s not a CF. If your “eyes” don’t tell you that, check out the numbers. I don’t know what Hamilton is going to cost nor do I know what the possible free agent pitchers that the Rangers could target (Greinke, Sanchez, Haren, Jackson, etc.) would cost. If you don’t like the Pujols example of how a team could let a slugger walk and still compete, the Angels also did it with Teixeira, letting him walk after the 2008 season. They replaced him with Morales and didn’t miss a beat.

Phil Merkel
2 years 10 months ago

Forget the FA pitchers…package up some talent and go after locked up starting pitchers that won’t be FA’s for a couple more years.

Red_Line_9
2 years 10 months ago

Are the defensive metrics still as unstable as they have been in the past? I’m not sure. I know in the past we’ve seen big swings in defensive player value from one year to the next.

patrick
2 years 10 months ago

do you not see big swings in offensive stats as well? pick any offensive stat you’d like and you’re going to see those swings.

burnboll
2 years 10 months ago

That’s a great idea! Exaclty what I think they should do! It all depends on whether they can extend Andrus though!

vtadave
2 years 10 months ago

Andrus is a Boras client, so unless it’s an overpay, I don’t see it happening.

burnboll
2 years 10 months ago

Yeah, you’re probably right. What’s you’re call on what to do with Andrus, what type of trade do you wanna see? Or hold on to him?

Phil Merkel
2 years 10 months ago

Kinsler in the OF????? Hell, he can’t play 2B…can’t imagine him in the OF….trade him…get a real OF!!!

vtadave
2 years 10 months ago

LF is more difficult to play than 2B?

Phil Merkel
2 years 10 months ago

Having played both, I think so…

burnboll
2 years 10 months ago

Hey bro, how much could Texas ballpark be a factor? I mean a guy like Stanton is IMO equal in value to Hamilton. My guess is that he’ll put up equal numbers next year. Marlins should pull in the fences next year, they have the best slugger in baseball, it’s just stupid to not set the ballpark for his production.

Spit Ball
2 years 10 months ago

Actually when you have someone who hits the amount of no doubters that Stanton does you actually make Stanton more valuable than he would be in a smaller park. If you move the fences in not only does he hit more dingers but it becomes easier for “marginal power hitters” to hit homeruns. He was worth the same offensively home than away as a matter of fact. 21 home runs on the road, 16 at home but 9 doubles on the road 21 at home. His tOPS+ was identical (100) home and away. tOPS+ measures your offensive value relative to your own performance in different ballparks. As far as Stanton and Hamilton goes, Stanton is better right now never mind next year.

burnboll
2 years 10 months ago

Thanks! For supporting me on Stanton being better I mean. And good explanation on the ballpark stuff, that like TOTALLY makes sense.

But whatabout the mental aspect of it, you know the rest of the team, don’t they get psyched out by playing half of the games in a pitchers park? Seems like that with a lot of players in Safeco, and it seemed to help a couple of the players on the Mets team to move in the fences, they even started to produce better on the road…

2 years 10 months ago

He hits a lot of HRs on the road as well. His 4 HR effort was on the road.

burnboll
2 years 10 months ago

Good point man. Maybe I was wrong.

Red_Line_9
2 years 10 months ago

I’d say you can replace the RBI’s because the batter at the plate has little effect on whether a man is standing on second…and having two batters at the plate over one increases the percentage of at bats to drive those runs in. They can certainly replace Hamilton by composite if they are smart about it and catch some luck with the health of the composite.

2 years 10 months ago

If you are going to use two batters RBIs to replace him you have to not only compare them to Hamilton but to the second batter they replace as well. Two guys can’t replace one. They won’t let us have a 10 man batting order unfortunately. If they bring in two new players then they are going to replace two different players.

Red_Line_9
2 years 10 months ago

Certainly, but the notion that a player like Josh Hamilton is irreplaceable is incorrect. Smart organizations have a proven talent for doing just this. Texas declining to pursue him in free agency wouldn’t be an indication of monetary constraint either. For the same money they might be likely to pursue other players.
I do feel it would be harder to replace a front line starting pitcher….with Hamilton they wouldn’t necessarily need to replace his offense strictly in CF..they could spread it over other positions. That’s the value of pitching..and why teams fail when they feel they can get by with a rotation of #3 starters. Two #3’s does not equal a #1 in many cases.

dylanp5030
2 years 10 months ago

I remember people saying this about the Cardinals and Pujols last year. Looks like they replaced him with Craig and Beltran quite nicely. Not saying they wouldn’t be a better team with Albert, but the production drop off wasn’t much.

2 years 10 months ago

Both of those guys didn’t replace Pujols. Only one guy can play at a time at a gvien position and if both played then they replaced two players. You can’t add their numbers up and compare them to Pujols and say they replaced him. Pick one of them or add another Cardinal player who was replaced into the mix and compare Pujols and the other replaced player to Craig and Beltran. Once again though Hamilton produced numbers this year far superior than Pujols did his last year in St. Louis. It isn’t comparable at all. If the Cardinals did replace 28HR and 99 RBI that doesn’t mean the same can be done by Texas with Hamilton’s 43 HRs and 128 RBI.

vtadave
2 years 10 months ago

Because you’re having trouble comprehending this concept, let me give it a shot. The Cardinals would not have had the resources to pay Beltran $13 million a year had they retained Pujols at $25 million a year. I hope we can agree on that. Second, the Cardinals leader in first base at-bats this year was Allen Craig. Matt Adams and Matt Carpenter saw time there, as did Lance Berkman. These guys combined for a .832 OPS, and for you I’ll add their HR/RBI totals – a combined 21/109 at first base. Last year, Cardinals first basemen (Pujols mostly obviously) had a .882 OPS and a 38/106 mark. Better, but not out of this world.This year, Cardinals’ RF’s (mainly Beltran) had a .837 OPS and 35/103. Last year – .855 and 28/104 thanks to Berkman who wasn’t available for most of the year. Overall, pretty much a push, but then again, the Cardinals would have had a payroll that was $12 million higher (difference between Pujols’ and Beltran’s salaries), likely meaning they would have had to compromise elsewhere.

burnboll
2 years 10 months ago

dave, do you think the way Pujols and his season in LA and his “replacements” in St Louis played out have any effects on how long term contracts are viewed, or how perceived franchise player contracts are viewed?

vtadave
2 years 10 months ago

I doubt it. There are always going to be owners that want to chase that bright shiny object in the hopes that he’s the one missing piece to winning a World Series. Maybe it causes a couple team to think twice, but that’s about it.

burnboll
2 years 10 months ago

thanks.

2 years 10 months ago

Again, Hamilton’s numbers would be much more difficult to replace. Even if it was done with Pujols that doesn’t mean the same can bbe done with Josh. To follow up on that argument though, tell me which free agents we can sign. I believe next year we have the following guys penciled in so they won’t be replaced by any free agents.
C
1B Olt
2B Profar
3B Beltre
SS Andrus
LF Kinsler
RF Cruz
CF
DH Young
Therefore, you have an opening in CF and at Catcher. Which two free agents can we sign at those two positions that would make up for Josh and Napoli? You need 67 HRs between them and 184 RBI together between a centerfielder and a catcher free agent. Are those two guys available?

Phil Merkel
2 years 10 months ago

I don’t see Olt being penciled in anywhere just yet…unless he has an obscene spring training. I agree the Rangers also need a 1B along with catcher, CF, and stout starting pitcher….contrary to what anyone says, the Ranger DO need another starting pitcher to fit in the top three in the rotation. As far as I’m concerned, the Rangers can also package up Holland to make that happen.

vtadave
2 years 10 months ago

C – Keep Napoli or sign Martin or Pierzynski.
CF – No one can replace his offense, but it won’t be hard to find a better defender that’s for sure. Alternatively, a guy like Olt or Andrus could go a long way towards improving the team.
DH – Replace Young with Moreland / Olt. Upgrade.

Red_Line_9
2 years 10 months ago

You’re assuming he maintains his offense…if the Rangers feel he will not…they will move on.

Red_Line_9
2 years 10 months ago

It increases the Rangers potential to trade. Wouldn’t be surpised to see Andrus dealt. You can’t take their current or projected roster as set in stone.

2 years 10 months ago

Which two free agents do you suggest the Rangers sign to replace Hamilton and the only other open position the Rangers will have, catcher? Hamilton and Napoli put up about 67 HRs this season so which free agent catcher and centerfielder will make up for that production?

Red_Line_9
2 years 10 months ago

They should not have resigned Pujols at his asking price regardless of the outcome we’ve seen them have this season. Sustainable success after a 1-2 season rebuild would have been better than a slow organization sink due to the weight of the Pujols contract.

Konrad Verloc
2 years 10 months ago

Meh. His numbers are misleading. He gets hot for two weeks and carries the team, but then he’ll go in a funk for two weeks and give you the worst at bats of anyone in the entire major leagues. He was just awful down the stretch. He does not tend to step it up when the games are important. Yeah, he can hit a 500 foot homer – but he can also swing and miss at 38 straight curve balls in the dirt from soft tossing lefties. He’s not going to get better, either – he’s 31. Dump him. Let him go and get picks. Rangers need to retool that offense – they were unwatchable about 1/3 of the season.

Natsfan89
2 years 10 months ago

If they lose Adam LaRoche I could see the Nats putting an offer in. Davey and Bo Porter have said a couple times that Harper has become a much smoother center fielder mechanics wise and the Nats may be content letting him play there for a few years. They could move Morse to first and play Hamilton in left.

Depends on what happens with their arbitration case against MASN and how they feel Hamilton would impact the great team chemistry the Nats have.

seivemusic01
2 years 10 months ago

Yeah as much as I hate to say it I think anyone looking at the history of other ball players this just Reeks of the “curse of the mega contract give the guy with the mega numbers, possibility of a relapse” syndrome:-)!!! What most teams considering him I would think take into account how hard Texas worked with a support system as to make sure he was “feeling great” most of the time. Being a recovering addict I do know most addicts require quite a bit of attention. And from what’s been told he has had to a pretty big support group around him. Texas spent alot to make sure their investment has cared for. That is a big responsibility for a baseball team that really just want to worry primarily about the game of baseball. That’s really why Texas is still the best place for him. They are already acclimated for that “dynamic” will other teams be able to understand and handle such a sensitive and sometimes questionable character defect in a what seems like volatile person? If I owned and ran a baseball team that roll of the dice would be pretty difficult to toss. The reasons I’ve listed above are what is even making the current team reluctant to another contract. If some other team offers him the moon then good luck. Even my being clean for some 12 years has still given most people that have known me all my life still reluctant to trust my next move. It just goes with the territory being an addict. And I was bad. I did 5 years in a Texas prison due to my addiction. So I know him even though I don’t know him.

burnboll
2 years 10 months ago

You really hate to say it though?

seivemusic01
2 years 10 months ago

Yeah I do. It’s a forum. So I guess starting my statement off with that wasn’t the right choice of words. In glad to with all that I said you were able to pick that out. Genius.

burnboll
2 years 10 months ago

I thought it was excellent choice of words. And a very good post at that. You should try to separate your paragraphs a little do.

Ed Duffy
2 years 10 months ago

Good points Seive…well done

John
2 years 10 months ago

“Rangers people don’t see the point in offering a contract Hamilton would surely decline” I guess “Rangers people” don’t care about draft picks.

2 years 10 months ago

1 year for 13 million is a little different than 5+ years, 20+ million…

burnboll
2 years 10 months ago

Hey guys! What do you think Texas should offer Hamilton?

I say either 2-3 years for perhaps 19-21 mil a year or longer (7-8) and perhaps 10-11 a year. Yeah, I know, seems very cheap.

But the way Cardinals declined the long albatross deal on Pujols I think will a have long term effects on how team perceive free agents in their 30’s.

burnboll
2 years 10 months ago

Here’s the real doozy that nobody hasn’t touched on yet.

The TV deals that supposedly are getting richer and richer all the time for all the teams, are, of course, depending on ad revenues.

And the TV ad revenues, are moving to the social media, such as Facebook, and the real big gangster, Google.

Some of the TV companies aren’t gonna be able to pay the dues for the TV rights.

And the question lies in whether MLB is gonna be able to get people to pay for the product quick enough.

The big fat TV contracts that are tied to ad revenues are soon a thing of the past.

Now we’ll see the subscription MLB TV revenue thingy.

Is it gonna be enough though?

Because the AD revenues aren’t coming back.

Red_Line_9
2 years 10 months ago

I’ve wondered this myself. Local and regional boradcasting is nothing new. I can’t imagine viewership of baseball is up in general to support these deals. I’d imagine, even the Cubs, as a nationwide broadcaster over WGN have saturated the potential fanbase market. My question is…where is the hidden value that I’m not seeing on the surface for these cable companies.
Isn’t it true in many cases, though, that these regional sports networks are owned by a collaboration of teams themselves….which would mean they are paying themselves. CSN Chicago operates this way.
Reminds me of the years that the Kansas City owner paid an extortionary fee to the waste removal service for Kauffman Stadium…when he actually owned the waste removal service…..enabling him as the “Royals” to claim a loss.

patrick
2 years 10 months ago

the value of tv contracts for sports is shooting through the roof b/c sports are pretty much the only thing that people watch live. when’s the last time you watched a tv show live? cant exactly skip through the commercials in a football or baseball game