Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work. The Phillies are next in our series. Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.
- Kyle Kendrick (5.159): $6.6MM
- John Lannan (5.046): $3MM
- Antonio Bastardo (4.054): $2MM
- John Mayberry (3.095): $1.7MM
- Ben Revere (2.149, Super Two): $1.5MM
- Kevin Frandsen (4.151): $1.3MM
- Roger Bernadina (4.146): $1.3MM
- Casper Wells (3.040): $700K
Revere's season ended on July 13th with a broken foot, but the 25-year-old center fielder is secure for next year. Bastardo's season was cut short by a Biogenesis suspension, but he's expected to play in winter ball and will be tendered a contract for next year. Frandsen trailed off significantly over the season's final three months, but is cheap enough to retain as a reserve.
Regarding Kendrick, Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. said on Monday, "I don't know why people are asking about that. We will [bring him back]," according to Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer. People were probably asking because as a guy with a 4.70 ERA, Kendrick's projected salary isn't much of a bargain. Plus, he posted a 6.04 ERA over his final 17 starts and was shut down in September with a shoulder injury.
Lannan is likely to be cut loose, as a knee injury cost him more than half the season and he wasn't effective otherwise. Mayberry is a "definite non-tender candidate," wrote Gelb yesterday, as the Phillies may slide Darin Ruf into his fourth outfielder role. Mayberry, acquired by the Phillies in November '08, hit .227/.286/.391 this year. Bernadina will likely be gone, after a lackluster showing in 27 games. I expect Wells to be cut loose also.
If the Phillies tender contracts to Kendrick, Bastardo, Revere, and Frandsen, they'll be looking at an estimated $11.4MM for four arbitration eligible players.