Projected Super Two Cutoff Update

OCTOBER 3rd: Galla tells MLBTR that a few roster moves since CAA's last projection have caused the cutoff to increase by one day to 2.122.  That means Charlie Furbush will not be arbitration eligible, as he's one day short.

SEPTEMBER 5thBack in April, we learned that based on the research of Ryan Galla of CAA Baseball, the projected Super Two cutoff after the 2013 season was two years and 119 days (written as 2.119).  Now, Galla tells MLBTR that the projection as rosters sit is 2.121.  Likely Super Two players such as Eric Hosmer, Brandon Belt, Steve Cishek, and Mike Minor remain unaffected by the change, but those two days matter quite a bit for players on the borderline.  As we mentioned in April, Lance Lynn (2.119) and Felix Doubront (2.120) are very close to the projected cutoff.  Should they fall short of Super Two status, their 2014 salaries will remain a bit above $500K, costing them millions.

Players with at least three but less than six years of Major League service are considered arbitration eligible.  Additionally, a player with at least two years but less than three is eligible for arbitration if he has accumulated at least 86 days of service during the immediately preceding season and ranks in the top 22% in total service in the two-to-three class.  The current collective bargaining agreement, which went into effect December 12th, 2011, raised that Super Two percentage from 17% to 22%.  Bottom line: Super Two players are arbitration eligible four times instead of the usual three.  MLBTR will have much more on each team's arbitration eligible players in the coming weeks, including Matt Swartz's salary projections.

Previous Super Two cutoffs:

  • 2012: 2.139
  • 2011: 2.146
  • 2010: 2.122
  • 2009: 2.139

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