Headlines

  • Albert Pujols To Interview For Angels’ Managerial Vacancy, May Be “Leading Choice”
  • Bill Schmidt Will Not Return As Rockies’ GM
  • Brian Snitker Will Not Return As Braves’ Manager In 2026
  • Angels To Have New Manager In 2026
  • Rays Sale To Patrick Zalupski’s Group Officially Completed
  • Guardians Promote Chase DeLauter For Wild Card Series
  • Previous
  • Next
Register
Login
  • Hoops Rumors
  • Pro Football Rumors
  • Pro Hockey Rumors

MLB Trade Rumors

Remove Ads
  • Home
  • Teams
    • AL East
      • Baltimore Orioles
      • Boston Red Sox
      • New York Yankees
      • Tampa Bay Rays
      • Toronto Blue Jays
    • AL Central
      • Chicago White Sox
      • Cleveland Guardians
      • Detroit Tigers
      • Kansas City Royals
      • Minnesota Twins
    • AL West
      • Athletics
      • Houston Astros
      • Los Angeles Angels
      • Seattle Mariners
      • Texas Rangers
    • NL East
      • Atlanta Braves
      • Miami Marlins
      • New York Mets
      • Philadelphia Phillies
      • Washington Nationals
    • NL Central
      • Chicago Cubs
      • Cincinnati Reds
      • Milwaukee Brewers
      • Pittsburgh Pirates
      • St. Louis Cardinals
    • NL West
      • Arizona Diamondbacks
      • Colorado Rockies
      • Los Angeles Dodgers
      • San Diego Padres
      • San Francisco Giants
  • About
    • MLB Trade Rumors
    • Tim Dierkes
    • Writing team
    • Advertise
    • Archives
  • Contact
  • Tools
    • 2025-26 MLB Free Agent List
    • 2026-27 MLB Free Agent List
    • Contract Tracker
    • Transaction Tracker
    • Agency Database
  • NBA/NFL/NHL
    • Hoops Rumors
    • Pro Football Rumors
    • Pro Hockey Rumors
  • App
  • Chats
Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

Breaking Down The Jhonny Peralta Signing

By Steve Adams | November 25, 2013 at 3:42pm CDT

While many pundits expected a few deals in the four-year, $50-55MM range to be issued this offseason, few thought that Jhonny Peralta would be on the receiving end of such a lavish payday. Yet that's exactly what took place over the weekend, with the Cardinals agreeing to a four-year, $53MM contract with the former Tiger and Indian.

At first glance, Peralta's contract appears to be an alarming overpay, however that's more due to the fact that there was clearly a disconnect between his market value and the media perception of his worth. This isn't said to pat myself on the back by any means (I was off by $17MM on the total value of his contract, after all), but my own projection of three years and $36MM for Peralta was among the most aggressive numbers I saw around the baseball sphere when looking at other predictions. News that Peralta was seeking $56-75MM late last week was widely scoffed at by MLBTR readers both on Twitter and in the comments section of the post.

Reports have indicated that the Mets believed, initially, that they would be able to land Peralta on a two-year contract. They weren't the only ones thinking along those lines, as ESPN's Jim Bowden pegged him at two years and $20MM. Meanwhile, over at CBS Sports, Jon Heyman spoke to an agent and an unnammed GM, and that trio pegged Peralta in the two-year, $16-21MM range. When I presented my own three-year, $36MM prediction to MLBTR's Tim Dierkes as we were discussing the free agent profile series, he was struck by its aggressive nature.

As it turns out, I, like many others, failed to properly weigh three key components that played a vital role in Peralta's contract:

  • The middle infield and third base markets offered little to no competition. Even with a limited number of teams looking to spend big on a free agent shortstop, the bar was set higher than any of us imagined, as the floor for Peralta appears to have been three years and $45MM.
  • Teams' strong desire to hang onto draft picks is likely greater than any of us have taken into account. Stephen Drew, who is connected to draft pick compensation after rejecting a qualifying offer, represents the only true everyday alternative to Peralta on the open market. The amount for which he signs will be one of the most interesting stories of the offseason from this point forth.
  • Teams may not be as hesitant to sign players connected to performance enhancing drugs as we would initially think. If this is the case, it's good news for Nelson Cruz and Bartolo Colon as they look to maximize their free agent paydays. I predicted three years and $39MM for Cruz and one year at $10MM for Colon in their respective free agent profiles — two projections that are feeling a bit light given the early direction of the free agent market.

From a performance standpoint, Peralta is a solid player that's probably deserving of a $13MM AAV. I won't rehash the fine work done by Eno Sarris and Dave Cameron over at Fangraphs in illustrating why a slightly above-average hitter (relative to the rest of the league, that is; Peralta dwarfs the average shortstop in terms of offensive prowess) and a reliable defensive shortstop is worth such an investment, or why this is the going rate for such players.

While many will be quick to label this contract an "overpay," we need to be more mindful of what that term really means. Should an "overpay" be defined by our own expectations, or should it be defined by the possibilities within the structure of a given free agent market? Each free agent market is its own animal, unique in nature and unlikely to be repeated. In this instance, a three-year deal likely wasn't happening, and there are even reports that have indicated Peralta left money on the table to join a stacked Cardinals organization. If that's the case, Peralta's signing is likely a bargain relative to the realm of realistic possibilities, even if it's an eye-popping number for which most of the world was ill-prepared. Kudos to agent Fern Cuza of SFX for dissuading teams from the media's perception of his market and more than doubling most prognosticators' expectations in terms of years and dollars.

Share Repost Send via email

St. Louis Cardinals Transaction Analysis Jhonny Peralta

Minor Moves: Irving Falu, Tyler Robertson
Main
Dioner Navarro Moving Toward Deal
View Comments (0)
Post a Comment

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Please login to leave a reply.

Log in Register

    Top Stories

    Albert Pujols To Interview For Angels’ Managerial Vacancy, May Be “Leading Choice”

    Bill Schmidt Will Not Return As Rockies’ GM

    Brian Snitker Will Not Return As Braves’ Manager In 2026

    Angels To Have New Manager In 2026

    Rays Sale To Patrick Zalupski’s Group Officially Completed

    Guardians Promote Chase DeLauter For Wild Card Series

    Bruce Bochy Will Not Return As Rangers Manager Amid “Financial Uncertainty”

    Liam Hendriks Undergoes Ulnar Nerve Transposition Surgery

    Twins Fire Rocco Baldelli

    Giants Fire Bob Melvin

    Pirates Sign Manager Don Kelly To Extension

    Pete Alonso To Opt Out Of Mets Contract, Enter Free Agency

    Padres Place Ramón Laureano On Injured List Due To Finger Fracture

    Willson Contreras Will Consider Waiving No-Trade Clause But Prefers To Remain With Cardinals

    Cade Horton To Miss At Least One Playoff Series Due To Rib Fracture

    MLB To Take Over Mariners’ Broadcasts In 2026

    Nolan Arenado More Open To Waiving No-Trade Clause As Cardinals Plan To Rebuild

    Sonny Gray Will Consider Waiving No-Trade Clause This Offseason

    Nationals To Hire Paul Toboni As President Of Baseball Operations

    Astros’ Luis Garcia Will Miss 2026 Season Due To Elbow Surgery

    Recent

    Diamondbacks Notes: Gallen, Kelly, Rotation, First Base

    The Opener: Wild Cards, Rockies, Managerial Vacancies

    MLBTR Podcast: Mike Elias On The State Of The Orioles

    MLB Mailbag: Cubs, Mets, Guardians, Athletics

    Albert Pujols To Interview For Angels’ Managerial Vacancy, May Be “Leading Choice”

    Rockies Expected To Consider Thad Levine In Front Office Search

    Marlins Notes: Alcantara, First Base, Garrett, Meyer

    Braves Outright Jarred Kelenic, Four Others

    Rays To Look For Catching Help

    22 Players Elect Free Agency

    MLBTR Newsletter - Hot stove highlights in your inbox, five days a week

    Latest Rumors & News

    Latest Rumors & News

    • Every MLB Trade In July
    Trade Rumors App for iOS and Android App Store Google Play

    MLBTR Features

    MLBTR Features

    • Remove Ads, Support Our Writers
    • Front Office Originals
    • Tim Dierkes' MLB Mailbag
    • Front Office Fantasy Baseball
    • MLBTR Podcast
    • 2025-26 MLB Free Agent List
    • 2026-27 MLB Free Agent List
    • Contract Tracker
    • Transaction Tracker
    • Extension Tracker
    • Agency Database
    • MLBTR On Twitter
    • MLBTR On Facebook
    • Team Facebook Pages
    • How To Set Up Notifications For Breaking News
    • Hoops Rumors
    • Pro Football Rumors
    • Pro Hockey Rumors

    Rumors By Team

    • Angels Rumors
    • Astros Rumors
    • Athletics Rumors
    • Blue Jays Rumors
    • Braves Rumors
    • Brewers Rumors
    • Cardinals Rumors
    • Cubs Rumors
    • Diamondbacks Rumors
    • Dodgers Rumors
    • Giants Rumors
    • Guardians Rumors
    • Mariners Rumors
    • Marlins Rumors
    • Mets Rumors
    • Nationals Rumors
    • Orioles Rumors
    • Padres Rumors
    • Phillies Rumors
    • Pirates Rumors
    • Rangers Rumors
    • Rays Rumors
    • Red Sox Rumors
    • Reds Rumors
    • Rockies Rumors
    • Royals Rumors
    • Tigers Rumors
    • Twins Rumors
    • White Sox Rumors
    • Yankees Rumors

    Navigation

    • Sitemap
    • Archives
    • RSS/Twitter Feeds By Team

    MLBTR INFO

    • Advertise
    • About
    • Commenting Policy
    • Privacy Policy

    Connect

    • Contact Us
    • Twitter
    • Facebook
    • RSS Feed

    MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

    Do not Sell or Share My Personal Information

    hide arrows scroll to top

    Register

    Desktop Version | Switch To Mobile Version