Red Sox fan? Fantasy baseball player? Either way, you should probably sign up for a chance to win the new Baseball Prospectus book Mind Game over at RotoAuthority. All we ask is that you sign up for the RotoAuthority mailing list. You’ll receive an email once a day informing you of the latest posts on RotoAuthority. Today is the last day to sign up for the contest.
Archives for 2005
Juan Pierre To The Cubs: Update
Yesterday, Bruce Levine reported that the Cubs are in the "final stages" of a trade for Marlins center fielder Juan Pierre.
This afternoon, I was able to get in touch with Bruce to obtain a little more info on the deal. It seems that the Marlins are still a little shaky on this deal; they’re not sure whether to hold out and target top-tier prospects or to pull the trigger now just to dump Pierre’s salary.
Also, Levine confirmed that Rich Hill will not be part of any deal for Pierre. Levine said the Marlins are indeed looking for young pitching. As a refresher, here are some top hurlers from the Cubs’ minor league system who may be available:
Jae-kuk Ryu
Ricky Nolasco
Sean Marshall
Renyel Pinto
Angel Guzman
Chicago’s recent trade history with Florida has had mixed results. Most would agree the Cubs made out like bandits getting Derrek Lee for Hee Seop Choi, but that trade was motivated very much by salary concerns.
The Marlins’ unloading of Matt Clement and Antonio Alfonseca for Dontrelle Willis worked out in their favor, although Clement was an integral part of the Cubs’ 2003 playoff run.
Juan Pierre To The Cubs
Joe Capozzi of the Palm Beach Post has been floating Juan Pierre rumors for some time now. The Yankees have backed off, but apparently the Cubs are still very interested.
ESPN Radio’s Bruce Levine is reporting that the Cubs are in the "final stages" of a trade for Pierre. Levine claims that the Cubs would only surrender minor leaguers in the deal. Corey Patterson is not expected to be involved.
No names were mentioned, so it’s open to speculation. I doubt Pierre could bring in a jewel like Felix Pie or Brandon Sing. Top Double A West Tenn pitchers from ’05 included Jae-kuk Ryu, Ricky Nolasco, Sean Marshall, and Renyel Pinto. Angel Guzman has looked decent in the AFL.
Nolasco had a fine year in Double A after a rough turn in Triple A Iowa the previous year. Given Ryu’s questionable behavior in the past, he could be paired with Nolasco in the deal. Jermaine Van Buren is expendable as well. We’ll wait to see if Bruce Levine can expound upon the minor leaguers involved.
The 27 year-old Pierre’s stock dropped considerably in 2005. He posted a career-low .326. His defense was far from spectacular as well, but Pierre hasn’t really been a good defender for years. Pierre’s value as a leadoff hitter is very dependent on his OBP, so Hendry is banking that he can reach base 37% of the time as he did in 2004.
Durability is a point in Pierre’s favor. He’s played every single game for the last three seasons. Pierre is also somewhat affordable, although that could change after arbitration.
Thanks to Brian B. for the tip.
Cubs To Trade Todd Walker For Aaron Heilman
A new trade rumor has been floated from New York today. We all know Todd Walker is on the trading block; it seems the Mets are interested.
Word is that the Cubs will deal Walker to the Mets for Aaron Heilman, straight up. If the rumor holds up, this could help both teams.
Strangely, the Mets still seem to have little faith in Heilman despite his breakout 2005. Heilman just turned 27, and he misses bats. He has yet to settle into his role as a pitcher. Heilman could serve in the swing role for the Cubs if Glendon Rusch becomes a permanent rotation fixture. Having a pitcher versatile enough to start, close, and do everything in-between may be a new trend in baseball.
Walker is what he is – all hit, no glove. He’s definitely an above average hitter for a second baseman. You’ll see that Walker was the 20th best 2B in 2005 once you consider fielding. If he can stay healthy for 550 at-bats, however, he might crack the top ten in 2006 despite the poor defense.
The move would take the Mets out of their dance with Rafael Furcal and increase the chances the Cubs sign him.
Heilman wasn’t seen as an integral part of the proposed Manny Ramirez trade, so those talks would stay alive.
Thanks to Brian from Edison for the tip.
Mets To Swap Cameron For Nady
Over at RotoAuthority, I did an in-depth breakdown of the rumored Manny Ramirez trade. The conclusion? Even a trade of just Lastings Milledge and Mike Cameron for Manny Ramirez would be damaging to the Mets by 2007. If the Mets add Yusmeiro Petit or Aaron Heilman to the mix, they get killed in the deal.
But now we have a new trade rumor that puts a wrinkle in the proposed Manny deal. Word is that Mike Cameron for Xavier Nady is close to a done deal.
Nady’s versatility is helpful, but he won’t match Cameron’s value in 2006. Cameron’s not a star player in my book, but then again, you know you’ve made it when people start impersonating you to score painkillers. Cameron plays a solid center field, and can still add 6 wins to a team at age 33. Nady is 27 and is still several years away from free agency. The Mets are hoping he can approximate his production from Triple A Portland in 2004: .330/.391/.629 in 74 games. Nady did slug .615 in June of ’05, so the potential is intriguing.
More interesting than the Cameron for Nady trade itself is the related fallout. Consider:
The Red Sox would have one less option to replace Johnny Damon, and it becomes more likely that they bite the bullet and offer him a four-year deal.
The Mets back away from Carlos Delgado, Paul Konerko, and other available first basemen. They begin the year with some combination of Mike Jacobs and Xavier Nady at the position.
A new group of players would have to be assembled to entice the Red Sox to surrender Ramirez. Rest assured that if Lastings Milledge is involved, the Red Sox will still be listening.
Thanks to Ryan from Berkeley
Julio Lugo To The Braves
Today the Tampa Tribune’s Scott Carter again brought up the idea of the Rays trading Julio Lugo. This time, he named names:
"While it remains too early to determine whether any of those players will be traded, Atlanta’s interest in Lugo appears real. Atlanta catcher Johnny Estrada, third baseman Andy Marte and pitcher John Thomson, who had his $4.75 million option for next season picked up recently, are all believed to be available. Meanwhile, Baez and Huff continue to surface in trade rumors with the Mets and Red Sox that erupted at last year’s trade deadline."
RotoAuthority has already busted out 2006 projections for Lugo, so we won’t go into detail about that here. But is the availability of Andy Marte legitimate? Marte was ranked the #1 prospect in all of baseball by Baseball Prospectus in 2005. I asked Scott Carter, the perpetrator of the rumor, to elaborate. He told me:
"I don’t think you would see any kind of trade straight-up for those two. I’m sure for Braves to depart with Marte, they would want Lugo and possibly Gathright/Gomes or more."
If I’m the Rays, I’m speed-dialing Schuerholz to offer Gathright and Lugo for Marte. Mark my words, the Devil Rays will be a contender by 2007.
Kevin Mench To The Cubs
The Cubs are hot on the trail of Kevin Mench to fill one of their vacant outfield spots. Given that the Rangers have a need for a center fielder, it’s been speculated that Corey Patterson would be sent to Texas.
At age 27, Mench may have already reached his ceiling offensively. His AVG, OBP, and SLG all took a dip in 2005, his first full season. Mench didn’t rely on Ameriquest for his 25 home runs, as his splits are pretty even. He still has three years until free agency. Mench might be better served as a lefty-masher in a platoon – he slugged .600 vs. lefties in ’05.
Corey Patterson is long on potential, but has absolutely no ability to control the strike zone. The Rangers are hoping 2005 was rock bottom for Patterson.
Given the Cubs’ need for bullpen help, Jim Hendry may try to get Joaquin Benoit in the deal. Despite throwing a solid 87 innings in 2005, the 28 year-old righthander probably won’t be considered for the Rangers’ starting rotation in 2006. Benoit has an electric fastball and great K rate, but his problems with walks and home runs may run him out of town. He’s a great sleeper if he ever snags a starting gig.
Torii Hunter To The Yankees
The Yankees’ need for a center fielder is well known. The latest rumor making the rounds is that GM Brian Cashman will make a play to acquire Torii Hunter from the Twins.
Although his glovework hasn’t been anything special since 2001, the Yankees are after Hunter mainly to solidify their outfield defense. The 30 year-old Hunter never really developed plate discipline, but he’d still be worth a couple of wins compared to the current shell of Bernie Williams.
Hunter is under contract for 2006 at $10.75MM, and the Twins would love to get that money off the books to pursue a slugger. His 2007 club option for $12MM could be picked up by the Yanks if Hunter can remain a four win player in ’06. With his defense slipping, Hunter may try to reinvent himself as a patient slugger like Moises Alou did in 1997.
The Yankees won’t give up Robinson Cano to acquire Hunter, and Eric Duncan is out of the question. Instead, the Twins might take Andy Phillips and try him at third base. A promising young starter like Matt DeSalvo (3.02 ERA at Double A Trenton in 2005) would also be necessary. The Twins’ bounty may be less than impressive as they’re eager to shed Hunter’s salary.
