Discussion: What’s Next For The Dodgers?
The Phillies pounded the Dodgers' pitching staff last night en route to a World Series berth, so now the newly signed Ned Colletti will go to work trying to improve his club for next year.
Los Angeles has a few prominent players due to become free agents, including Orlando Hudson, Jim Thome, Randy Wolf, Mark Loretta and Ronnie Belliard. They also have $42MM in options to sort out between Manny Ramirez, Vicente Padilla, and Jon Garland, although Manny's is a player option while Garland's is mutual. Let's not forget that Russell Martin, Andre Ethier, George Sherrill, Jonathan Broxton, Chad Billingsley, Matt Kemp, and Hong-Chih Kuo are all eligible for arbitration. That could get expensive very quickly.
What do MLBTR's readers think the Dodgers need to do this offseason? Acquiring a front-line starting pitcher would seem like a top priority, so they may choose to make a play for Roy Halladay or attempt to sign John Lackey. They'll also need to figure out who's playing second. Just throwing some names out there – what about a package deal for Dan Uggla and Josh Johnson?
Odds & Ends: Reds, White Sox, Shimizu
More Thursday linkage…
- MLB.com's Mark Sheldon guesses the Reds will buy out Ramon Hernandez's option for $1MM, but then try to re-sign him. Sheldon also runs through the upcoming important hot stove dates.
- White Sox GM Ken Williams wouldn't reveal much about his offseason plans, talking to MLB.com's Scott Merkin. "I'm always looking at all the possibilities," said Williams.
- WEEI's Rob Bradford talked to Tim Wakefield, who is aiming for 200 victories. He's 11 shy, so he could pull it off in 2010. The Sox figure to exercise his $4MM option once again.
- Ryo Shinkawa of NPB Tracker says 33-year-old righty Naoyuki Shimizu has MLB aspirations. Shimizu posted a 4.42 ERA this year in 144.6 innings for the Chiba Lotte Marines, striking out only 88.
- Cot's Baseball Contracts informs us that Ryan Howard will earn $50K for his NLCS MVP award. Tack that on to his $15MM salary.
Heyman On Dodgers, Valentine
The latest from SI's Jon Heyman…
- Heyman, like many writers, believes the Dodgers need a #1 starter. He says Dodgers people "aren't overly optimistic" about snagging Roy Halladay or John Lackey, however.
- Heyman believes the Dodgers should consider trading one or all of James Loney, Russell Martin, and Chad Billingsley. Billingsley was ineffective in July and September, but the 25-year-old is under team control for three more years. Interest would be very strong.
- Heyman guesses the Indians might be willing to go to $2.5MM for Bobby Valentine, while GM Mark Shapiro doesn't expect money to be a factor.
Odds & Ends: Parker, Okajima, Kikuchi, La Russa
Links for Thursday…
- Bad news for D'Backs fans: top prospect Jarrod Parker is headed for Tommy John surgery. Reynolds Sports Management broke the news via their Twitter feed, check it out.
- Red Sox reliever Hideki Okajima has dismissed agent Peter Greenberg in favor of Boston-based Joe Rosen, according to a Japanese report passed along by NPB Tracker's Ryo Shinkawa. Shinkawa takes this as a sign Okajima wants to stay with the Red Sox. He is already under team control through 2012 as an arbitration-eligible player.
- Yusei Kikuchi's NPB-vs.-MLB decision seems to be coming within a few days, says Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker.
- Cardinals manager Tony La Russa is nearing his decision on whether to manage in 2010, says Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports says that "if La Russa manages next season, it will be with the Cardinals."
- Mark McGwire told The Sporting News' Jeff D'Alessio that Albert Pujols would be worth $30MM+ as a free agent.
- Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star feels the Royals should consider trading closer Joakim Soria.
- Baseball America's Jim Callis believes it's not far-fetched to think Bryce Harper could fall out of the first round in 2010 due to financial demands (hat tip River Ave. Blues).
- MLB.com's Matthew Leach and Jon Weisman of Dodgers Thoughts expect GM Ned Colletti to focus on the rotation this winter.
Offseason Outlook: Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays are next in our Offseason Outlook series. Their likely commitments for 2010:
C – Gregg Zaun – $2MM (club option, Zaun can void)
C – Shawn Riggans – $414K
1B – Carlos Pena – $10.125MM
2B – Ben Zobrist – $416K
SS – Jason Bartlett – $1.98MM+
3B – Evan Longoria – $950K
IF – Willy Aybar – $1.35MM
IF – Reid Brignac – $400K
LF – Carl Crawford – $10MM (club option)
CF – B.J. Upton – $435K+
RF – Matt Joyce – $410K
OF – Fernando Perez – $403K
DH – Pat Burrell – $9MM
SP – James Shields – $2.5MM
SP – Matt Garza – $433K+
SP – Jeff Niemann – $1MM
SP – David Price – $1MM
SP – Wade Davis – $400K
RP – J.P. Howell – $434K+
RP – Dan Wheeler – $3.5MM
RP – Grant Balfour – $1.4MM+
RP – Lance Cormier – $675K+
RP – Randy Choate – $400K+
RP – Andy Sonnanstine – $430K
RP –
Other commitments: Akinori Iwamura – $250K buyout, Brian Shouse – $200K buyout
Non-tender candidates: Dioner Navarro, Gabe Gross, Jeff Bennett
I have uncertainty with the Rays, given the options and non-tender candidates. Zaun hopes to return in 2010, and if he does the Rays would be less inclined to tender Navarro a contract for $1.68MM+. On the other hand, the Rays have talked about expecting Navarro to rebound, so it's difficult to guess their plan. As for the options, Crawford is an easy decision at $10MM. Cases could be made for retaining Iwamura and Shouse, but I have the Rays paying them $450K to leave rather than $6.25MM to stay. Under this scenario, the Rays have about $50MM committed before arbitration raises to Bartlett, Upton, Garza, Howell, Balfour, Cormier, and Choate. These raises should cost at least $10MM, putting the Rays in the low $60MM range for the second year in a row.
The Rays can probably expect more out of Upton, Burrell, and the catcher spot in 2009. Trading Upton is a possibility, though his value is at a low point. A successful first half could allow the Rays to trade Upton and promote Desmond Jennings for center field. Offensively, the Rays also have to worry about Zobrist and Bartlett coming down somewhat from their excellent numbers.
Right field should be a competition. Gross may be non-tendered, with Kapler leaving as a free agent. Zobrist, Joyce, and Perez could be in the mix, plus any possible imports. One affordable plan could be to use Zobrist in right and Sean Rodriguez at second base. Iwamura has value at $4.25MM, so the Rays could exercise his option and then trade him.
With Davis looking good and Jeremy Hellickson waiting in the wings, the Rays appear to have rotation depth for 2010 despite trading Scott Kazmir, Edwin Jackson, and Jason Hammel in recent years.
The Rays may not add a closer, but they're planning to bring in two or three late-inning arms. Whatever payroll space they have will likely be used here. Interesting free agents are plentiful.
Even without major moves, it's not difficult to envision improvements in the offense and starting rotation next year for the Rays. It's an important year to pounce, with Pena and Crawford entering contract years.
Trades Of The Decade: Mulder For Haren
When a 27-year-old lefty with a history of durability hits the trade market, teams are going to show interest. Mark Mulder had an 81-42 career record and was still two years away from free agency when A's GM Billy Beane made him available five winters ago.
After losing the World Series, Cardinals GM Walt Jocketty decided to pursue the Oakland lefty. In late December of 2004, Jocketty acquired Mulder for three prospects: Kiko Calero, Daric Barton and Dan Haren. Jocketty told ESPN that he'd acquired a "top of the rotation-type pitcher" and he appeared to have done just that.
Peter Gammons called Mulder "one of the best left-handed starters of his generation," and Kevin Goldstein of Baseball America expected him to "step into the ace role for the Cardinals."
In spite of Mulder's youth, durability and reputation for winning, there were warning signs. As Goldstein pointed out, the A's wondered about Mulder's health when he struggled down the stretch in 2004. And in spite of his lofty win totals, Mulder started walking more batters, allowing more homers and striking out fewer hitters per nine innings in his final season as a member of Oakland's "Big Three."
Haren, who was 24 at the time of the trade, dominated the minor leagues. He had a 3.15 ERA in the minors, striking out nearly a batter per inning and walking very few hitters (1.6BB/9).
We know what happened from here. After a solid 2005 season, Mulder's shoulder and rotator cuff sidelined him and he hasn't been productive since. The Cards got the rights to one decent year and one poor one, but the deal stands out because they gave up so much.
Calero had a couple productive seasons for the A's and the 24-year-old Barton showed some promise in limited time this season. Haren, the centerpiece of the deal, excelled for the A's during his three-year Bay Area stay. He logged over 200 innings each season and netted the A's Brett Anderson, Carlos Gonzalez, Chris Carter, and others when they traded him to the D'Backs.
A huge win for the A's, but it's easy to see how the Cards were tempted by Mulder and why they were determined to bolster their rotation at all costs.
Multiple Teams Eyeing Milton Bradley
"Multiple teams are in contact with the Cubs about outfielder Milton Bradley," according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Rosenthal even quotes one source who said, "You would be shocked at the level of interest."
Rosenthal says the Cubs believe they can trade Bradley without eating the vast majority of his remaining $21MM, and the team's new ownership set a limit for a cash contribution from the Cubs in any trade. Rosenthal notes that the Cubs could still take back a contract.
Bradley, 32 in April, hit .257/.378/.397 in 473 plate appearances this year. He logged 915 innings in the outfield, his highest total since 2004. I suggested yesterday that the Cubs should try to work things out with Bradley, especially with hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo on board. However, Cubs GM Jim Hendry told MLB.com's Carrie Muskat the Jaramillo hiring had nothing to do with Bradley.
As far as the shocking level of interest in Bradley, we know there's a longshot possibility with the Rays. In a September 26th video, Rosenthal said the Giants, Padres, Rangers, Rays, and Mets "are among the clubs with possible interest." The Padres seemed open-minded, but that was when Kevin Towers was GM. The Rangers and Royals appear to be out.
Red Sox Rumors: Bay, Drew, Bard
Red Sox GM Theo Epstein appeared on WEEI's Dennis & Callahan show this morning; let's take a look.
- Epstein admitted the Red Sox need a contingency plan in case Jason Bay leaves, but he still believes "[Bay] wants to be here, and we want to keep him and take a shot."
- Epstein says J.D. Drew has been worth "a tick more than $14MM per year," due to his offense, defense, and baserunning. FanGraphs has the best-known public player valuation system, and they say Drew has averaged $14.93MM in regular season value over 2007-09.
- The Red Sox GM was not trying to send a message through the media when he said DH David Ortiz needed to be a force in 2010.
- Epstein considers reliever Daniel Bard a "work in progress," and implies thrusting him into the closer role in 2010 wouldn't be beneficial long-term for Bard.
- In other Red Sox news, Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald says the team has "expressed interest in meeting with [Aroldis Chapman] and watching him throw, although it is premature to categorize their interest as anything beyond preliminary."
Hoyer “Closer” To Becoming Padres GM
THURSDAY, 9:09am: Chris Jenkins of the San Diego Union-Tribune describes the Hoyer hiring as "imminent," but says no announcement is scheduled for today.
WEDNESDAY, 2:25pm: Both MLB.com's Corey Brock and ESPN's Buster Olney are reporting that San Diego is moving closer to naming Boston Assistant General Manager Jed Hoyer as their next General Manager.
Hoyer and Los Angeles Assistant GM Kim Ng have both been interviewed. It is unclear if anyone else has been interviewed, with San Diego staying quiet about the search.
Padres' CEO Jeff Moorad has said he'd like to name a GM prior to the World Series, so it is reasonable to expect an announcement sooner than later.
As for Kevin Towers, whom Hoyer would be succeeding, his destination remains unclear. Olney wrote last week that "it figures that Towers will take a job with the Yankees as a special assistant in the months ahead."
But Brock reports that Towers could "conceivably take a spot in the Red Sox front office — possibly as a special assistant or in the scouting department — if Hoyer is indeed hired by the Padres."
Braves Rumors: Soriano, Gonzalez, Hudson
David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution talked to Braves GM Frank Wren yesterday. Hot stove highlights:
- Wren considers the Braves' biggest needs to be the bullpen and the offense.
- O'Brien is certain the Braves won't try to re-sign both Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez. O'Brien explains why it's in the Braves' best interest to stay tight-lipped about possible arbitration offers for any Type A or B free agents (Soriano and Gonzalez both project as Type As).
- O'Brien guesses the Braves will try to work out a multiyear extension with Tim Hudson at less than $10MM per year. Decisions on Hudson's $12MM mutual option within five days of the conclusion of the World Series.
- Wren implied Martin Prado will enter Spring Training as the Braves' starting second baseman. We talked earlier this month about Kelly Johnson as a trade candidate.
- As you learned from Baseball America's Matt Eddy a week ago, righties Jorge Campillo, Buddy Carlyle, and Vladimir Nunez were granted free agency. Wren says the Braves still need to make decisions on whether to attempt to re-sign any of them.