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Free Agent Stock Watch: Frank Francisco

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Neftali Feliz is ready to close games in the World Series and is a strong candidate for the AL Rookie of the Year Award, but it's easy to forget that he didn't even start the season as the Rangers' closer. That job belonged to Frank Francisco, who saved 25 games in 29 chances last season. He blew the save in his first two opportunities of the season and sported a double digit ERA in late-April, putting the ninth inning in Feliz's hands.

Francisco is set to hit the free agent market for the first time in his career in a few weeks, so let's break down his stock…

The Good

  • After the rough start, Francisco was exceptionally strong as Feliz's setup man the rest of the way. After April 20th, he pitched to a 2.83 ERA with 56 strikeouts and just 13 unintentional walks in 47.2 innings.
  • He's dominant, striking out 200 batters over the last three seasons (10.9 K/9) walking just 54 unintentionally (2.94 BB/9).
  • As stated before, he has experience closing games, not mention familiarity with the setup role as well. Versatility is always a plus.

The Bad

  • Francisco finished the year on the disabled list due to a strained rib cage suffered in late August and hasn't been able to pitch in the playoffs. He also hit the disabled list twice in 2009 due to a shoulder strain, plus once more with a bout with walking pneumonia.
  • He can be prone to the long ball, averaging one homer for just a touch over every nine innings pitched over the last three seasons. The Ballpark in Arlington has exacerbated that problem, his HR/9 on the road since 2008 is a much more managable 0.68.
  • Francisco is projected to be a Type-A free agent, so if the Rangers offer him arbitration, a team would have to surrender a high pick to sign him.

Verdict

Francisco's offseason is going to depend on whether or not the Rangers offer him arbitration. If they don't, his stock will be much higher because the stigma of forfeiting a high draft pick is gone. If they offer and he declines, he could find himself in a Juan Cruz circa 2008-2009 situation, where he's unemployed late into the offseason because no one feels he's worth giving up a pick. There's also a non-zero chance that Francisco would accept an arbitration offer, since an award would push him close to $4MM next year ($3.265MM salary in 2010). He might not be able to find that much money on the open market.

If Francisco does hit the market, perhaps his best course of action would be to take a one-year deal to serve as a non-contender's closer, building up his value so he could shoot for a multi-year guarantee next winter. He could also be a nice fallback option for a team breaking in a young and/or inexperienced closer.

Odds & Ends: Daniels, Takahashi, Byrnes, Lee, Gray

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Links for Wednesday, as Cliff Lee and Tim Lincecum duel in Game One of the World Series…

  • Jon Daniels called a report indicating that he asked the Mets (through back channels) to hold off on their GM announcement until after the World Series "complete bull," according to CBSSports.com's Scott Miller. Daniels can opt out of his contract after the season since the Rangers were sold this year.
  • Hisanori Takahashi switched agents from Peter Greenberg to Arn Tellem, tweets Newday's David Lennon. We learned that Takashi and the Mets were discussing an extension just a few days ago, but it appears that the lefty is positioning himself to test the free agent waters.
  • Joel Sherman of the New York Post says the "belief in the sport" is that Josh Byrnes will join the Padres' front office after losing out on the Mets GM gig. Byrnes has strong ties to San Diego's front office, most notably owner Jeff Moorad.
  • Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe wonders if the Tigers and Red Sox are getting ready to battle for the same free agents in a few weeks.
  • The Yankees have had internal discussions about how much money they'd be willing to offer Cliff Lee, according to Jack Curry of the YES Network.
  • The Cubs outrighted Jeff Gray to Triple A, so he’s no longer on the team’s 40-man roster. The 28-year-old righty struggled through 9.1 big league innings this year.
  • Alex Speier of WEEI.com explains that the Red Sox will have trouble finding another pitching coach like John Farrell, the new Blue Jays manager.
  • Omar Minaya isn't sure whether he'll stay with the Mets, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com (on Twitter). Heyman says there's a decent chance Minaya returns, since he gets along well with owner Fred Wilpon and incoming GM Sandy Alderson.

Amateur Signing Bonuses: Dodgers

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Time to head to Hollywood for our amateur signing bonus series. Here come the Dodgers…

  1. Zach Lee, $5.25MM (2010)
  2. Clayton Kershaw, $2.3MM (2006)
  3. Joel Guzman, $2.255MM (2001)
  4. Ben Diggins, $2.2MM (2000)
  5. Ethan Martin, $1.7325MM (2008)

With the McCourt's divorce still ongoing and the team facing an uncertain financial situation, many assumed that the Dodgers were punting the 28th overall pick in this year's draft by selecting Lee. The talented righthander was considered extremely tough to sign, using a scholarship to LSU as one of the nation's best quarterbacks recruits as leverage. The Dodgers could have claimed to have made Lee a fair offer, then taken the 29th overall pick in the 2011 draft as compensation if they didn't sign him. Except they did sign him, so give them credit. Lee didn't pitch after signing and will start his career next season.

Kershaw was the seventh overall pick in the 2006 draft, the first high school player selected in a class dominated by college arms (and Evan Longoria). After just 44 minor league starts (and four relief appearances), Kershaw was pitching in the the big leagues as a 20-year-old. Two-plus seasons into his career, the lefty owns a 3.17 ERA, 9.3 K/9, and 4.2 BB/9, as well as the top spot in Los Angeles' rotation.

The Dodgers signed Guzman out of the Dominican Republic as a 16-year-old and allowed him to steadily climb the minor league ladder. He made his major league debut in June 2006, and his first career start came as a cleanup hitter. Unfortunately Guzman didn't live up to the bonus or hype, hitting .211/.348/.211 in just 23 plate appearances before being sent back down. The Dodgers dealt Guzman to the then-Devil Rays a few weeks later for Julio Lugo. He hasn't appeared in a big league game since 2007, but is still toiling away in the minors.

Diggins, drafted out of the University of Arizona with the 17th overall pick in 2000, made his pro debut in 2001 and had was solid: 3.58 ERA, 6.7 K/9, 4.1 BB/9. He was better the next year (3.20 ERA, 8.0 K/9, 3.3 BB/9), but the Dodgers traded him and another minor leaguer to Milwaukee for Tyler Houston and a player to be named a week before the 2002 trade deadline. Diggins appeared in five games with the Brewers that season, but was out of baseball a few years later after having Tommy John surgery and subsequent setbacks.

Martin was the team's first round pick in 2008 (15th overall), but he didn't make a good first impression. He suffered a season ending knee injury almost immediately after signing, and didn't debut until 2009. Martin's currently working his way up through the system; in 213.1 career innings, he's posted a 9.5 K/9, 6.0 BB/9 and 6.35 ERA.

We're not counting Japanese veterans in this series even though they have zero MLB experience when signing, but Hiroki Kuroda's $7.3MM bonus would easily top the list. Hideo Nomo received $2MM when he came stateside.

Rangers Rumors: Daniels, Lee, Guerrero

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The Rangers are the center of attention as they prepare to play in their first World Series. Here's the latest on the American League champions (click here for the latest on the NL pennant winners):

Blue Jays Exercise Jose Molina’s 2011 Option

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The Blue Jays exercised Jose Molina's 2011 option, according to MLB.com's Jordan Bastian. The club chose to retain the 35-year-old instead of buying him out for $200K.

Molina hit .246/.304/.377 last year with six homers after signing with the Jays in February. Alex Anthopoulos' low-risk investments in Molina and John Buck paid off this season, but the GM now has a decision to make. J.P. Arencibia appears ready to catch in the big leagues and Buck has expressed interest in returning. It seems unlikely that both Arencibia and Buck will have spots on the team's opening day roster, but Anthopoulos called Buck to tell him the club still has interest in working out a deal (Twitter link).

Yanks Decline Options For Wood, Berkman, Johnson

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The Yankees declined their 2011 options for Kerry Wood, Lance Berkman and Nick Johnson and exercised their option on 2007 first rounder Andrew Brackman. It cost the Yankees $2MM to buy out Berkman's $15MM option and $250K to buy out Johnson's $5.5MM option.

Wood, 33, posted a 0.69 ERA with 10.7 K/9 in 24 regular season appearances for the Yankees, and was outstanding in the playoffs. It would have cost the Yankees $11MM to exercise the righty's 2011 option, so turning it down was presumably easy for GM Brian Cashman and the rest of the team's front office.

Berkman, 34, batted just .255/.358/.349 after the Yankees acquired him from the Astros in a July trade. Johnson performed worse than that in his 98 plate appearances. The 32-year-old posted a .167/.388/.306 line in his return to the Bronx. Like Berkman, he reached base without providing any pop. 

Picking up Brackman's option was a formality. The 24-year-old posted a 3.90 ERA with 8.1 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 in the minors last year, reaching Double-A for the first time, so the Yankees weren't about to let him go.

Non-Tender Candidate: John Maine

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There's no question that John Maine's season began poorly. He struggled through nine early-season starts and didn't pitch after injuring his shoulder in May. If there was any doubt that he was a non-tender candidate, it disappeared later this summer when it became apparent that he would need season-ending arthroscopic surgery on his right shoulder.

Before the injury sidelined Maine, he posted a 6.13 ERA in 39.2 innings and walked too many hitters, so the Mets may be reluctant to offer the 29-year-old arbitration. Sure, Maine has potential, but he made $3.3MM this year and would make a comparable amount if the Mets tender him a contract. 

Maine is still young and he has been effective in the past, so it's easy to see how the Mets might be tempted to keep him. The right-hander pitched to a 4.01 ERA in 87 starts from 2006-09 with 7.7 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9. That kind of production has value, even if Maine currently sits behind Johan Santana (also recovering from surgery), R.A. Dickey, Jon Niese, Mike Pelfrey and Jenrry Mejia in the team's projected rotation.

If the Mets non-tender Maine, other teams would likely have cautious interest. There are no guarantees for pitchers returning from arthroscopic shoulder surgery, as another non-tender candidate knows well. Chien-Ming Wang, who underwent a similar operation almost exactly one year before Maine did, didn't pitch in 2010. The Mets would be taking on a considerable risk by offering a few million dollars in arbitration.

When he examined the Mets arbitration class, MLBTR's Tim Dierkes argued that Maine will likely be non-tendered this December. I agree - Maine will probably find himself competing for jobs alongside free agent starters before long. That's no sure thing, though, especially with a new GM on his way in, so it's still worth asking whether the Mets will tender the righty a contract. Click here to vote on Maine's future in New York and here to view the results.

Tigers “Deeply Interested” In Carl Crawford

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The Tigers are "deeply interested" in Carl Crawford, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. As Rosenthal points out, Crawford and Austin Jackson would provide the Tigers with excellent outfield defense in spacious Comerica Park. Crawford can hit, too; the 29-year-old batted .307/.356/.495 this year with a career-high 19 homers.

The Red Sox, Angels and Nationals are among the many potential suitors for Crawford. The Reds and Astros don't figure to pursue the left fielder, but that won't hurt his free agent stock much. He's in position to demand a $100MM deal, especially if the Yankees and Braves get involved.

The Tigers started addressing their offseason needs last week by signing Brandon Inge to an affordable extension. They may soon do the same with Jhonny Peralta, so GM Dave Dombrowski figures to have the resources to make competitive offers to Crawford and other impact bats.

Potential Suitors For A.J. Pierzynski

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The White Sox may be the best fit of all for A.J. Pierzynski, who hits free agency this offseason. It once seemed as though Tyler Flowers would replace Pierzynski, but the White Sox could look to keep the 13-year veteran if they don't want to hand the starting catcher's job to a minor leaguer who slumped his way through the 2010 season. Pierzynski has said he's open to returning to the South Side, so it would not be surprising to see the sides reach a new deal.

As MLBTR's Steve Adams pointed out when he examined Pierzynski's stock a few weeks ago, the relative strength of this year's free agent catchers could limit the catcher's bargaining power. Victor Martinez, Ramon Hernandez, John Buck and Rod Barajas will be available on the market and Miguel Olivo, Yorvit Torrealba and Bengie Molina could join them. But a number of teams will be seeking catching help this winter, so Pierzynski should draw interest if he doesn't return to Chicago.

Here are some potential destinations for the 33-year-old. He batted just .270/.300/.388 this year, but no one said it was easy to find catchers who can hit.

  • Red Sox – If Martinez signs elsewhere, the Red Sox may look for a more experienced complement to Jarrod Saltalamacchia.
  • Rangers – The Rangers will be looking for a catcher if Bengie Molina retires.
  • Mariners – The Mariners need offense everywhere they can get it.
  • Marlins – The Marlins are looking for a catcher this offseason.
  • Mets – Josh Thole hit relatively well in half a season with the Mets, but new GM Sandy Alderson could look to sign a veteran catcher.
  • Reds – The Reds have interest in bringing Hernandez back, but they could be in the market for a catcher if negotiations don't go well.
  • Padres – The Padres and Yorvit Torrealba have a mutual option for 2011. If the option doesn't get exercised, GM Jed Hoyer could be searching for a backstop, depending on the organization's confidence in Nick Hundley.

Giants Notes: Payroll, Lincecum, Rowand

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The Giants have every reason to be focused on tonight's World Series opener with the Rangers, but first pitch is hours away, so there's still time for some updates on how the Giants got here and what they can expect next year:

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