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Archives for September 2010

Odds & Ends: Huff, Marlins, Sampson, D’Backs

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Links for Thursday, exactly ten years after the Angels signed Ervin Santana as an amateur free agent…

  • Aubrey Huff is enjoying his time in San Francisco, writes Chris Haft of MLB.com.  Huff, who signed a one-year, $3MM deal with the Giants in the offseason, will be a free agent at season's end.
  • The Marlins still consider Bobby Valentine a candidate for their managerial opening and Valentine didn't rule out the possibility of re-starting talks with the team, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (on Twitter). 
  • The Astros announced that they removed Chris Sampson from their 40-man roster. He has three days to accept a minor league assignment or opt for free agency. Sampson told MLB.com's Brian McTaggart that he realizes his time with the Astros is likely over.
  • The Mariners say they knew little about Josh Lueke's history with the law when they acquired the pitching prospect in the Cliff Lee trade, but both the Rangers and former Mariners pitching coach Rick Adair have different versions of the story, as Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times explains.
  • Unsure where your team is going to pick in next year's draft? Check out our reverse standings page, which we link to under 'Features' on the right side of the page.
  • Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports reports that the D’Backs plan to speak to De Jon Watson, the Dodgers assistant GM for player development, about their permanent GM job. Also in the running, some familiar names: Jerry Dipoto, D’Backs assistant GM Peter Woodfork, Kevin Towers, Damon Oppenheimer and Logan White.
  • Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic believes Chien-Ming Wang, who signed for $2MM plus incentives, is a better comparable for Brandon Webb than Rich Harden, Tim Hudson, or the other pitchers his agent compared him to. 
  • Chone Figgins told Mike DiGiovanna of the LA Times that he doesn't regret signing in Seattle.
  • Rookie pitcher Hisanori Takahashi can become a free agent after the season, as David Waldstein of the New York Times reports. He and the Mets haven't started negotiating an extension, but there's mutual interest in one.

The White Sox’ 2011 Rotation

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The White Sox have five solid starters under team control for 2011 and no impact prospects ready to take over a rotation spot, so Chicago heads into this offseason with a clear sense of Ozzie Guillen's options for next year. Mark Buehrle, Jake Peavy, John Danks, Gavin Floyd and Edwin Jackson can all be retained for 2011 and all but Danks are already under contract.

Freddy Garcia's contract is up after the season, but he has said he'd like to return to the White Sox. The team doesn't have much MLB-ready pitching in the upper minors, so bringing Garcia back on a one-year deal would make some sense.

The White Sox have called on 27-year-old right-hander Carlos Torres to make occasional starts this year and last year, but he doesn't project as a regular starter. Baseball America explained before the season that Torres "profiles as a long reliever/ sixth starter" and that's how the White Sox have used him. His major league ERA (6.21) is high, but his minor league numbers are more respectable (3.52 ERA, 8.1 K/9, 4.0 BB/9).

Chris Sale, the team's 2010 first rounder, has yet to start a pro game, but could be converted back to starting. Sale would need minor experience out of the rotation before starting in the majors, but he could eventually join the team's rotation.

It's not hard to explain why the White Sox don't have much in the way of starting pitching prospects. They have traded a number of young pitchers away since last year, including John Ely, Daniel Hudson and Clayton Richard. However if the White Sox had held onto those pitchers, they wouldn't have Jackson, who has been tremendous for Chicago, or Peavy.

The White Sox could make more trades, of course, but their rotation appears set for 2011. They have to determine whether to sign Garcia or another similar pitcher, but they'll be able to focus on other parts of the team this offseason. That's a good thing, since their catcher, DH and first baseman hit free agency and their entire bullpen could be in flux. 

Marlins Sign Mike Rivera

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The Marlins signed former big league catcher Mike Rivera and assigned him to Triple A, according to MLB.com's transactions page. Rivera, who turns 34 later this month, has big league experience with the Tigers, Padres and Brewers. He last played in the majors in 2009 and spent most of this season at AA for the Dodgers.

Rivera posted a .257/.384/.377 line at Chattanooga, showing more patience than he did in his big league career (.244/.305/.383 MLB line). The Marlins don't have much depth behind the plate, since John Baker has an injured elbow and Ronny Paulino has been suspended for PED use. We heard last night that they were looking to sign a catcher.

Stark On Lee, Prince, Braves, Nationals

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ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark debated the pros and cons of moving back the trade deadline with a number of MLB general managers. The group was divided on whether to move the deadline to August, but Stark suggests we’re not likely to see MLB make such changes any time soon. Here are some more hot stove updates from around the league:

  • One source told Stark that Cliff Lee will follow the money this winter: “Cliff would go to Siberia if they offered him the biggest contract."
  • Rival teams expect the Brewers to look into trading Prince Fielder this winter. One executive told Stark that the Brewers were “shocked” not to see more interest in Prince before the trade deadline.
  • Braves GM Frank Wren has often jokingly told Billy Wagner that it’s too soon for him to retire. The lefty maintains that his playing days are over after 2010.
  • Wren says the Braves are assuming that Chipper Jones, who is under contract next year, will be back in 2011.
  • Nationals president Stan Kasten told Stark that Washington will be "more aggressive than we've ever been" this offseason. Presumably that means they’ll try to re-sign Adam Dunn and offer Carl Crawford a contract.

A-Rod Leaves Boras

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Alex Rodriguez sent a letter to Scott Boras 45 days ago to inform the agent that he no longer requires his representation, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com. Bob Nightengale of USA Today first reported the news and Craig Calcaterra of NBC Sports soon confirmed the report. Pittsburgh attorney Jay Reisinger and Washington lawyer Jim Sharp advise Rodriguez, according to USA Today. But as Joel Sherman of the New York Post points out on Twitter, they are not his baseball agents.

Boras negotiated Rodriguez's ten-year $252MM deal and his ten-year $275MM deal, the two biggest contracts in baseball history. Rodriguez's current contract expires when he's 42, so he won't need to negotiate another deal for a while. Here is MLBTR's list of Scott Boras clients.

Elias Rankings Update

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After the season the Elias Sports Bureau will take all players over the 2009-10 period, divide them into five groups for each league, and rank them based on various statistics.  Then each player will be labeled a Type A, B, or none.  Those designations and the possible accompanying arbitration offers determine draft pick compensation (click here for a refresher).

Eddie Bajek has reverse-engineered the Elias rankings, and he's providing that information exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors.  Here's a look at how the players rank for the period beginning with the 2009 season running through August 31st, 2010.  The Google spreadsheet below has separate tabs for each position group.  You can also go directly to the Google spreadsheet here and download it in Excel here.  Our last set of Elias projections is here, in case you want to see what changed.

A few special notes from Eddie this week.  He had to enter rosters by hand, so please leave a comment if you find an error.  Anyone not on an active roster or the disabled list by August 31st is ineligible – Brad Hawpe is one such example.  Also, Eddie included extra tabs for NL 1B and NL OF this week showing how the calculations are done for those groups.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Carl Pavano

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Carl Pavano isn't the best pitcher in the Twins rotation – that honor goes to Francisco Liriano – but he has quietly been one of the best pitchers in the American League this year. Pavano ranks second in the AL in walk rate (1.5 BB/9), third in innings pitched and 14th in ERA (3.52).

He currently projects as a Type A free agent, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see the Twins offer arbitration, like they did last year. If Pavano accepts, he will return on a one-year deal, presumably for more than the $7MM he makes in 2010. If he declines, the Twins obtain two top picks and the 34-year-old has to fend for himself.

Pavano could try to land a two-year deal on the open market, but teams must be wary of making a multi-year commitment to Pavano given his failed four-year $39.95MM deal with the Yankees. As a result, teams are likely to turn to Ted Lilly or Hiroki Kuroda if they're going to offer more than one year to a mid-thirties starter.

It's possible that some team likes Pavano enough to guarantee him a two-year deal, but his age and injury history suggest he's looking at another one-year contract. As a result, we could very well see a repeat of last offseason when the Twins offered arbitration and Pavano accepted.

Clay Buchholz: Extension Candidate

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If the Red Sox want to extend Clay Buchholz this winter, there's one comparable pitcher they just won't be able to avoid. Whether they like it or not, Jon Lester's five-year $30MM extension will be a model of sorts for any extension discussions with Buchholz. 

Both pitch in Fenway Park against the tough American League East and both authored no-hitters early on in their respective careers. As the table below shows, Buchholz's current career numbers are similar to the ones Lester had when he signed long-term:

Buchholz
Ricky Romero and Yovani Gallardo had comparable numbers at similar stages in their careers and both signed for about $30MM over five years. The Red Sox are no doubt aware of the similarities between Lester and Buchholz and surely realize that locking up Buchholz for five years will cost about $30MM. The team has also committed to Daisuke Matsuzaka, Josh Beckett and John Lackey, so they may be reluctant to commit tens of millions more to a starting pitcher.

But if the Red Sox are ready to invest, Buchholz seems interested in striking a deal. Back in May, he told Alex Speier of WEEI.com that he would "love" to sign with the Red Sox long-term. We should find out early in 2011 if Theo Epstein and the Red Sox front office want to commit to the right-hander and make a deal.

The Red Sox’ 2011 Rotation

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The Red Sox have perhaps the most recognizable rotation in baseball. Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Josh Beckett, John Lackey, Tim Wakefield and Daisuke Matsuzaka have won a combined 545 games, two of them have pitched no-hitters, five have made All-Star teams and all six are under team control for 2011.

There are no guarantees for any big league rotation, no matter how well-established, and the Red Sox are no exception. Lackey's first season in Boston has been a difficult one; no American Leaguer has allowed more hits and Lackey's ERA (4.60) is higher than it has been in years. Beckett told WEEI that the Red Sox are in a "pretty frustrating" situation and fans hoping for an ERA better than 6.21 from the right-hander surely agree (Beckett's peripherals, it must be noted, remain strong). Meanwhile, Lester and Buchholz have been tremendous and Matsuzaka and Wakefield have pitched as expected.

Those six pitchers have started all but four Red Sox games this year, but the team may have to rely on a more diverse collection of arms in 2011. That shouldn't be a problem for Boston, because they have a number of younger starters ready or nearly ready to contribute in the major leagues.

First of all, there's Felix Doubront, the 22-year-old left-hander who is now pitching well out of Boston's bullpen. Before the Red Sox called him up, Doubront posted a 2.81 ERA with 8.1 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9 as a starter in the upper minors. And though Doubront is a reliever now, Red Sox GM Theo Epstein told Alex Speier of WEEI that could change.

"We see him long term as a starter, but like a lot of starting pitchers, the first stage of his big league career might be as a reliever, especially in this organization,” Epstein said.

Another Red Sox reliever, Michael Bowden, climbed the minor league ladder as a starter and could return to the rotation if a need arises. While Bowden has proven himself in the minors, a couple other young starters likely need some more seasoning. Junichi Tazawa is returning from Tommy John surgery, but he should be able to contribute in the majors if he can return to his 2009 form. Casey Kelly, another top prospect, has seen his walk rate and ERA jump at AA, so he will likely need more time in the minors. Another AA starter, Kyle Weiland, has pitched well for Portland and could become a consideration for the Red Sox.

These minor leaguers will, in all likelihood, have to wait their turn. Boston has six major league starters under team control for 2011, so their rotation appears set. Don’t expect the Red Sox to bid on free agent starters like they did last year (Lackey) and the year before (John Smoltz, Brad Penny). Unless they offer Buchholz an extension, the Red Sox probably aren’t going to present any starters with proposals this winter. Even though it’s been a frustrating season for the Red Sox, the organization has a strong group of starters and potential starters for 2011.

Poll: Strasburg Or Chapman

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Aroldis Chapman threw 104 mph tonight in his second – and second dominant – big league appearance. The Cuban lefty struck out 12 batters per nine at Triple A in his pro debut this year and when the Reds promoted him, Chapmania ensued.

It wasn't long ago that Stephen Strasburg was the hard-throwing prospect making headlines and overpowering big leaguers. The Nationals right-hander famously struck out 14 in his major league debut en route to a 2.91 ERA with 12.2 K/9 as a rookie. But Strasburg's season ended early; he'll undergo Tommy John surgery this week and will likely miss the entire 2011 season. 

Like Chapman, Strasburg is under control through 2016, but neither pitcher will come cheap. Taking into account Strasburg's injury and Chapman's control issues, let's ask a difficult question:

Would you rather have Stephen Strasburg or Aroldis Chapman going forward?

Click here to take the survey and here to view the results.

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